Brewers trade for Hunter Renfroe in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

[JosephC]

I've been surfing the Red Sox message boards and their eye test on Renfroe's defense tends to lean negative. He makes some incredible throws but, in total, his arm doesn't end up being a real positive because there are bad throws mixed in there and most of the time it seems like he refuses to throw it to the cutoff man. Didn't see any comments if his arm discourages runners from going from 1st to 3rd on singles, which to me is a real key factor on the defensive effectiveness of right fielders. So we'll see.

 

They are going nuts over Binelas exit velocity numbers and think they may have gotten a real steal there. I've learned my lesson from Lutz that exit velocity doesn't mean squat if the player has poor bat control, and there are enough questions over Binelas' hit tool that I find him a reasonable inclusion in this deal.

[JosephC]

If the thought continues to be Garcia vs. Renfroe, there's value in questioning consistency of expected results. Renfroe has been astoundingly consistent in WAR output, while Garcia has notably done an 'every other year' thing:

Renfroe

18: 2.4 WAR

19: 2.4 WAR

20: 0.0

21: 2.3 WAR

 

Garcia:

18: 0.5

19: 2.2

20: -0.2

21: 2.9

 

It does bother me that the metrics have Renfroe as looking like a fairly valuable player, meanwhile the Rays couldn't swing any deal for him after the 2020 season and had to DFA him, and the Red Sox dealt him in a deal where it looks like the other side's biggest motivation was to unload a bad contract. If MLB GMs see him as a "real" 2-2.5 WAR player, one would think he would bring a much better return if put on the trade block.

[monty57]

If the thought continues to be Garcia vs. Renfroe, there's value in questioning consistency of expected results. Renfroe has been astoundingly consistent in WAR output, while Garcia has notably done an 'every other year' thing:

Renfroe

18: 2.4 WAR

19: 2.4 WAR

20: 0.0

21: 2.3 WAR

 

Garcia:

18: 0.5

19: 2.2

20: -0.2

21: 2.9

 

It does bother me that the metrics have Renfroe as looking like a fairly valuable player, meanwhile the Rays couldn't swing any deal for him after the 2020 season and had to DFA him, and the Red Sox dealt him in a deal where it looks like the other side's biggest motivation was to unload a bad contract. If MLB GMs see him as a "real" 2-2.5 WAR player, one would think he would bring a much better return if put on the trade block.

 

While chicks may dig the long ball, recent trends seem to show that GM's aren't all that keen on "power first" (or more appropriately "power only") guys. Renfroe isn't as "power only" as a Chris Carter or Daniel Vogelbach, but his offensive value skews to power over OBP when the baseball world is more enamored with OBP over power.

 

I'm happy with the trade, and I think his power and ability to hit LHP fit nicely in our current roster, but I certainly wouldn't want a team full of sub-.300 OBP guys.

[wildcat2237]

IMHO one of the following 2 outcomes will come true:

 

1. Stearns Sold High. Binelas destroyed A ball last year. If he comes back down to earth, then I think Stearns acted like a magician and sold high on him. In accordance, the Brewers got rid of JBJ and acquired Renfroe for the equivalent of Lucas Erceg.

 

2. Binelas is for Real. If this comes to pass then the sox got an everyday 3b for the expense of JBJ's salary. This would be pretty bad news for the Brewers.

 

Who knows what happens. I figured Erceg would blossom and be an everyday MLB 3B.

[monty57]

IMHO one of the following 2 outcomes will come true:

 

1. Stearns Sold High. Binelas destroyed A ball last year. If he comes back down to earth, then I think Stearns acted like a magician and sold high on him. In accordance, the Brewers got rid of JBJ and acquired Renfroe for the equivalent of Lucas Erceg.

 

2. Binelas is for Real. If this comes to pass then the sox got an everyday 3b for the expense of JBJ's salary. This would be pretty bad news for the Brewers.

 

Who knows what happens. I figured Erceg would blossom and be an everyday MLB 3B.

 

That's one of the unfortunate things of the financial disparity that MLB chooses to allow. The Red Sox could cut JBJ today, pay him the money owed, and not think twice about it. The Brewers don't have that luxury. Even $8-$10M a year in dead money seriously hurts the Brewers' chance to compete.

[PeaveyFury]

While chicks may dig the long ball, recent trends seem to show that GM's aren't all that keen on "power first" (or more appropriately "power only") guys. Renfroe isn't as "power only" as a Chris Carter or Daniel Vogelbach, but his offensive value skews to power over OBP when the baseball world is more enamored with OBP over power.

 

 

I think that's all fair. But, I guess my point is that if the 2020 Brewers were willing to pay 29-year old Garcia $10m that offseason coming off a 'good' year, and expected 2-2.5 WAR out of him, they're probably pretty solidly ok with the thought of paying Renfroe $7.5 million with perhaps a more realistic expectation of the same WAR.

[brewers888]

Renfroe is fine and its better than having Bradley on the roster but I would hope this was just a salary dump and not the big move to improve the offense. This team still needs a difference maker in the middle of the lineup and I just have no idea how they will accomplish it.

[sveumrules]

Renfroe is fine and its better than having Bradley on the roster but I would hope this was just a salary dump and not the big move to improve the offense. This team still needs a difference maker in the middle of the lineup and I just have no idea how they will accomplish it.

 

The Brewers have plenty of ammunition to deal for a difference making middle of the order bat if Stearns & company can find a match.

[wallus]

Renfroe seems like one of those guys that are fine for a starter on a decent team but a guy that you always look to upgrade on.

[brewcrewdue80]

Renfroe seems like one of those guys that are fine for a starter on a decent team but a guy that you always look to upgrade on.

 

Sorta the phrase stopgap? We have those 1st rd OF picks that could(small pct) progress on to the team come Sept 1st. But may need in to 2023 before inserting themselves in the lineup.

 

Lets just remember a part of this trade is due to Garcia being able to opt out. Fully believe Bradley and Garcia were targeted to be the stopgaps. Also Bradley's move came post 2020 knowledge of a Cain opt-out, that I think was protection to the 2021 Cain. We are almost done with 2/3rds of the expensive OFs when these guys in the minors make it to the team. Taylor has a backup at CF covered but doesn't have the middle of order thump Renfroe replaces what Garcia fortunately brought in 2021. The fact that Stearns may be able to remove the cost of Bradley's buyout with a non-tender potential to Renfroe in 2023 if all comes together? Cain will be gone. That could grant an ability to extend the best deal among Woodruff, Burnes, Adames, Urias or to a FA signing is the genius on the move. The ability to allocate the money in to a more deserving player.

[monty57]

While chicks may dig the long ball, recent trends seem to show that GM's aren't all that keen on "power first" (or more appropriately "power only") guys. Renfroe isn't as "power only" as a Chris Carter or Daniel Vogelbach, but his offensive value skews to power over OBP when the baseball world is more enamored with OBP over power.

 

 

I think that's all fair. But, I guess my point is that if the 2020 Brewers were willing to pay 29-year old Garcia $10m that offseason coming off a 'good' year, and expected 2-2.5 WAR out of him, they're probably pretty solidly ok with the thought of paying Renfroe $7.5 million with perhaps a more realistic expectation of the same WAR.

 

I agree, and like I said, I'm happy with the trade. I was responding to JosephC's quote wondering why teams haven't been able to get a good return in trade for Renfroe. I think the power/SLG are out of favor right now, so that could make "power first" guys good value targets in trade.

 

I think Renfroe's skillset fits well with the Brewers' current makeup.

 

Renfroe is fine and its better than having Bradley on the roster but I would hope this was just a salary dump and not the big move to improve the offense. This team still needs a difference maker in the middle of the lineup and I just have no idea how they will accomplish it.

 

Dumping salary will help the Brewers make another move. I'm not sure you'll see a "big move," depending on how big you're looking for, but I expect Stearns to use the savings to do something else to improve the roster.

 

Unfortunately, they're spending $26M on a "difference maker," but he's currently wetting the bed. They're spending another $18M on a second "difference maker" who is hurt a lot, and when playing only makes a difference on defense. The Brewers are small revenue team, and that $44M is a huge chunk of the team's payroll.

 

It's possible that in this CBA-influenced offseason, a good hitter will have a hard time finding a home, and will settle for a one-year deal. I could see the Brewers going over budget for a one-year deal, but I doubt they'll sign a high AAV, multi-year deal with anyone. There are too many arby raises in the near-term future for them to make a big commitment.

[brewtank34]

Man, you all are jonesin' for some hot stove. Love the banter back and forth.

[JohnBriggs12]

Renfroe seems like one of those guys that are fine for a starter on a decent team but a guy that you always look to upgrade on.

 

Sorta the phrase stopgap? We have those 1st rd OF picks that could(small pct) progress on to the team come Sept 1st. But may need in to 2023 before inserting themselves in the lineup.

 

Lets just remember a part of this trade is due to Garcia being able to opt out. Fully believe Bradley and Garcia were targeted to be the stopgaps. Also Bradley's move came post 2020 knowledge of a Cain opt-out, that I think was protection to the 2021 Cain. We are almost done with 2/3rds of the expensive OFs when these guys in the minors make it to the team. Taylor has a backup at CF covered but doesn't have the middle of order thump Renfroe replaces what Garcia fortunately brought in 2021. The fact that Stearns may be able to remove the cost of Bradley's buyout with a non-tender potential to Renfroe in 2023 if all comes together? Cain will be gone. That could grant an ability to extend the best deal among Woodruff, Burnes, Adames, Urias or to a FA signing is the genius on the move. The ability to allocate the money in to a more deserving player.

 

Agree with most of what you said, but I see Taylor as the primary CF starter, not the backup. Cain's entering the final year of his deal and turns 36 in April. Ideally he's a part time player who is a big contributor but not an every day player. We need to see what Taylor can do with 500 PA. His ceiling right now is higher than a 36 year old Cain.

[TURBO]

Renfroe seems like one of those guys that are fine for a starter on a decent team but a guy that you always look to upgrade on.

 

Sorta the phrase stopgap? We have those 1st rd OF picks that could(small pct) progress on to the team come Sept 1st. But may need in to 2023 before inserting themselves in the lineup.

 

Lets just remember a part of this trade is due to Garcia being able to opt out. Fully believe Bradley and Garcia were targeted to be the stopgaps. Also Bradley's move came post 2020 knowledge of a Cain opt-out, that I think was protection to the 2021 Cain. We are almost done with 2/3rds of the expensive OFs when these guys in the minors make it to the team. Taylor has a backup at CF covered but doesn't have the middle of order thump Renfroe replaces what Garcia fortunately brought in 2021. The fact that Stearns may be able to remove the cost of Bradley's buyout with a non-tender potential to Renfroe in 2023 if all comes together? Cain will be gone. That could grant an ability to extend the best deal among Woodruff, Burnes, Adames, Urias or to a FA signing is the genius on the move. The ability to allocate the money in to a more deserving player.

 

Agree with most of what you said, but I see Taylor as the primary CF starter, not the backup. Cain's entering the final year of his deal and turns 36 in April. Ideally he's a part time player who is a big contributor but not an every day player. We need to see what Taylor can do with 500 PA. His ceiling right now is higher than a 36 year old Cain.

 

I'd love Taylor to get that shot, but I don't see it happening without a Cain injury, which of course is inevitable. Taylor just might see 400-500 ABs this year depending on how many times Cain is inured, and the severity. I'd guess Cain doesn't play in more than 80 games this year. That leaves more than 80 starts for Taylor in CF, plus the fill ins in the corner positions for off days and injuries. I hope he stays healthy and proves the doubters wrong this season!

[MNBrew]

Trotting out an old line, but I've long felt your 4th OF needs to be a guy you'd be comfortable having start 100 games. Bradley should've been that guy -- and was defensively, but he totally forgot everything he ever learned or did about successfully hitting a baseball.

 

I think Taylor's easily that 4th OF in 2022. If multiple guys get hurt, we have in-house multiple-position-playing options for the short run, plus Corey Ray on the 40-man and other guys in the system (prospects or AAA non-prospect types). Opportunities to pick up serviceable, experienced MLB OFs occur with some regularity over the course of a season.

[reillymcshane]

Trotting out an old line, but I've long felt your 4th OF needs to be a guy you'd be comfortable having start 100 games. Bradley should've been that guy -- and was defensively, but he totally forgot everything he ever learned or did about successfully hitting a baseball.

 

I think Taylor's easily that 4th OF in 2022. If multiple guys get hurt, we have in-house multiple-position-playing options for the short run, plus Corey Ray on the 40-man and other guys in the system (prospects or AAA non-prospect types). Opportunities to pick up serviceable, experienced MLB OFs occur with some regularity over the course of a season.

I totally agree with this.

 

Taylor is a great 4th OF option. He should get 100 starts all over the OF - and contribute as a PH and a late inning defensive substitution.

 

I'm not Corey Ray is ready for the majors, but he would be an intriguing 5th OF. He can play all all the OF positions, should be a solid defender, and offers a lefthanded bat off the bench. I'm tempted to say he needs more at bats in the minors - due to missing so much time the past couple of years. But at some point, the guy just needs to sink or swim.

[Roderick]

 

I'm not Corey Ray is ready for the majors, but he would be an intriguing 5th OF. He can play all all the OF positions, should be a solid defender, and offers a lefthanded bat off the bench. I'm tempted to say he needs more at bats in the minors - due to missing so much time the past couple of years. But at some point, the guy just needs to sink or swim.

 

Nah, I'd rather he sink or swim in AAA first. It isn't going to help him to get 5th OF sporadic at bats. Plus I'm thinking it would be a sinking....

[monty57]

 

I'm not Corey Ray is ready for the majors, but he would be an intriguing 5th OF. He can play all all the OF positions, should be a solid defender, and offers a lefthanded bat off the bench. I'm tempted to say he needs more at bats in the minors - due to missing so much time the past couple of years. But at some point, the guy just needs to sink or swim.

 

Nah, I'd rather he sink or swim in AAA first. It isn't going to help him to get 5th OF sporadic at bats. Plus I'm thinking it would be a sinking....

 

I just wonder how much upside is still there. The 5th OF isn't going to get many opportunities, which is why we'll probably use a "super utility" guy instead of an OF-only guy. However, if we choose to go with an OF-only guy, then why not spend league minimum on Ray instead of spending a million or two on a veteran.

 

So, is it worth it to hold Ray in AAA hoping something will finally click, or is it time to turn him into a cheap bench player for a few seasons while he's playing for league minimum?

[JosephC]

 

I'm not Corey Ray is ready for the majors, but he would be an intriguing 5th OF. He can play all all the OF positions, should be a solid defender, and offers a lefthanded bat off the bench. I'm tempted to say he needs more at bats in the minors - due to missing so much time the past couple of years. But at some point, the guy just needs to sink or swim.

 

Nah, I'd rather he sink or swim in AAA first. It isn't going to help him to get 5th OF sporadic at bats. Plus I'm thinking it would be a sinking....

 

My guess is that it would be a sink too. But I also can get behind the idea of him being a bench player for the Brewers next year. As far as sink or swim in AAA, he did slash .274/.325/.500/.825 in AAA last year. Next year will be his age 27 season, and he's not even considered a top 30 prospect anymore so it's not like you'd be stealing at-bats from a developmental up and comer by putting him on the MLB bench. He's on the 40-man roster, if the Brewers don't think he can be a fill-in, moderately effective 100+ plate appearance MLB player in 2022, then one would have to question if the only reason he is on the 40-man is so Stearns can save face on what looks to be a wasted top 5 pick. IMO, you have to count on him as being somewhat of an MLB contributor in 2022 or else get him off the 40-man roster and put someone else on it that you have more faith in.

[MNBrew]

I'd think Ray or David Dahl are the likely 5th OFs, with Dahl getting first crack. Assuming no injuries, I think they're likely to give Ray some AAA time first to try to get his groove going. Maybe he can start to figure it out better. Look how long Tyrone Taylor took to develop. Edited January 2, 2022 by MNBrew

[Austin Tatious]

I’d love to see Ray pull a Tyrone Taylor and put something together. But Fangraphs just gave him a 20 hit tool. That’s extreme.

[reillymcshane]

I’d love to see Ray pull a Tyrone Taylor and put something together. But Fangraphs just gave him a 20 hit tool. That’s extreme.

Ouch. That's painful.

[JosephC]

I’d love to see Ray pull a Tyrone Taylor and put something together. But Fangraphs just gave him a 20 hit tool. That’s extreme.

Ouch. That's painful.

 

And probably unjustified considering the season he just came off. I can get behind saying something like his hit tool is a 30 or 35 though. And it's a shame too, because in all the other categories he might be a 50 or better.

[clancyphile]

Ouch. That's painful.

 

And probably unjustified considering the season he just came off. I can get behind saying something like his hit tool is a 30 or 35 though. And it's a shame too, because in all the other categories he might be a 50 or better.

 

You know who Corey Ray reminds me of?

 

Keon Broxton.

 

Power, speed, excellent defense, can draw walks, but he struggles with contact and there are a lot of whiffs.

 

The difference is Ray bats left-handed, so he is a better platoon option.

[TURBO]

I really think that we all just need to accept the fact that Corey Ray is a big, giant, huge BUST.

 

Every time I see his name brought up with any kind of hope attached, I cringe.