Brewers trade for Hunter Renfroe in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

[Simba2020]

If Boston didn't want Renfroe, they could have non tendered him.

Renfroe did have some stand-alone value so why would they non-tender him? Just because they tendered him a contract doesn't mean they really wanted the guy. They could have almost certainly have traded Renfroe to somebody else for a lesser prospect.

 

To me it's very clear what this trade was all about. From the Brewers perspective, 1) rid themselves of Bradley 2) rid themselves of JBJ, and 3) add Renfroe. From the Red Sox point of view it was all about adding two prospects they liked.

 

My post was in response to another poster calling him garbage because they traded him. How do you know the view point of the Red Sox? Maybe they considered letting JBJ go as a mistake and wanted him back.

Because everything I've read is they really wanted the prospects, they are clearly looking to add another outfielder, they may try to trade JBJ to somebody else (good luck with that one), etc. There is nothing in what I've read that would indicate they plan on starting JBJ so it wouldn't seem he's somebody that features prominently in their plans one way or the other.

[Roderick]

 

To me it's very clear what this trade was all about. From the Brewers perspective, 1) rid themselves of Bradley 2) rid themselves of JBJ, and 3) add Renfroe. From the Red Sox point of view it was all about adding two prospects they liked.

 

They really wanted to get rid of him and any remnants of him around, eh?

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Hi, I’m Hunter Renfroe and I hit dingers! Excited to see him hit 40 for us this year!

[brewerfan82]

Hi, I’m Hunter Renfroe and I hit dingers! Excited to see him hit 40 for us this year!

Me too! Heck his initials are HR!

[SoCalBrewfan]

Renfroe is ok, brings RH power to a team that needed some, but he has more than a few warts. His OBP is just bad. Even his career year in that respect, he only managed .315. Dude makes a lot of outs. His recent defense is adequate but not spectacular, seemingly declining, and despite his great throwing arm he apparently throws more than his share away, leading the league in outfield errors three times I think? You don't want him in CF regularly at this point, and it's likely that our OF defense right now is worse than it was in 2021. (To be fair, he was really good in San Diego with the glove, so perhaps there is some upside there? Or maybe subtle park effects?)

 

He's a year younger than Bradley but both are at the point where aging curves start to diminish player value. We tend to think of Verlander or Nelson Cruz, but at 30 most players are well past their peak and losing value. It's slower at first, and some players are so good that even a drop from peak is still worth a lot. For a player that is around league average at their peak, those drops, which get steeper as age increases, can mean that a guy who was an ok starter is suddenly very replaceable. Also it's kind of unpredictable, like the old Hemingway quote about bankruptcy: it happens gradually, then suddenly.

 

So, we have a RH power guy with middling defense in a corner, who doesn't get on base, likely no remaining upside and some decline expected. We've seen the market be pretty soft for one-dimensional corner bats of late...these players tend to get overrated by some fans and media types but the free agent and trade market suggests that major league GMs don't value them as highly.

 

I wouldn't call him garbage. Things could break well for him, and the Brewers, and he hits 40 homers, ups his walks to have an average OBP and solid defense....that's a really valuable player. But if he slumps with the bat, he doesn't have a lot to offer, whereas Bradley (not that I want him back) has the defense to be a plus player even when hitting like a backup infielder. Contractual control is ok, we get two Arby years, could easily move on next year if desired, but not a long term value. Overall OK trade, has a good chance to address some issues, probably wouldn't warrant this much discussion if this were a regular offseason, but no way I would call it genius.

[Thurston Fluff]

We've seen the market be pretty soft for one-dimensional corner bats of late...these players tend to get overrated by some fans and media types but the free agent and trade market suggests that major league GMs don't value them as highly.

 

Avi Garcia and Renfroe are about as close as one can get for comparison and Garcia just got a 4-year $53M deal. If that's a soft trade/free agent market then we have an answer as to why we traded for Renfroe.

[brewerfan82]

Just to throw some stuff out there in regards to comparing Renfroe to Garcia...

 

2019-21:

 

2019-21 vs. RHP:

 

2019-21 vs. LHP:

 

So very similar in BB% and K%, but Renfroe has a bit more power. However, the biggest difference is Renfroe's low .250ish BABIP compared to Garcia's high .320ish BABIP, resulting in a higher AVG (and correspondingly higher OBP) for Garcia. If that can be contributed to a bit of bad luck (not saying that's for sure the case) and his BABIP gets closer to a league average of around .300, he could put up some really nice numbers.

[monty57]

We've seen the market be pretty soft for one-dimensional corner bats of late...these players tend to get overrated by some fans and media types but the free agent and trade market suggests that major league GMs don't value them as highly.

 

Avi Garcia and Renfroe are about as close as one can get for comparison and Garcia just got a 4-year $53M deal. If that's a soft trade/free agent market then we have an answer as to why we traded for Renfroe.

 

Offense

 

Avi: 3,749 PA, .270/.325/.431/.756, wRC+ 104

Renfroe: 2,161 PA, .237/.297/.490/.787, wRC+106

 

Defense (RngR, ErrR, UZR, UZR/150)

 

Avi: Total -9.2, -2.5, 6.2, 1.1 RF: -7.1, -2.8, 6.0, 1.2

Renfroe: Total 1.0, -7.4, -0.9, -0.4 RF: -0.9, -7.4, -1.3, -0.8

 

Steamer projects Avi for 2.2 WAR, Renfroe for 1.3 WAR

 

Renfroe provides better power and has better range in the field. Avi is better at getting on base and is a significantly better defender overall (he's a positive defender, while Renfroe is negative).

 

 

I think it was a good move on Stearns' part to pick up Renfroe, and he's certainly not "garbage," but I don't think he's as good a player as Avi. Acquiring Renfroe makes the '22 (and probably '23) Brewers a better team, and the trade saved them money to make another upgrade.

[Simba2020]

I don't think using Garcia's contract as a comp to what Renfroe would be worth would be correct. I think most would agree that Garcia was overpaid. Perhaps Miami had to overpay to get him to sign with them. Regardless, he's roughly a 1 WAR/year better player than Renfro and is projected to be this year as well. That's about a $5 million per year difference between the two right there.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It makes obvious sense to compare Renfroe to Garcia, but it's not a perfect comparison in this case, because once the Brewers decided to not make a qualifying offer to Garcia, he was as good as gone. I don't think there was any chance of him being a Brewer in 2022. It is likely, instead, that we would have seen Taylor and Bradley share time in RF, perhaps with someone like David Dahl, or a free agent from the under-$10 million AAV bargain bin. Those are the types of players Renfroe has to beat out production-wise in 2022.

[brewerfan82]

True. When evaluating if acquiring Renfroe improves the team from what they would have been without acquiring him, then Garcia is a non-factor, and it seems fairly obvious that Renfroe should be a better option than our current other options, and without raising payroll he was a more efficient acquisition than signing a similar player on the open market.

 

However, in evaluating if the team has improved/maintained the amount of talent/results they had from last year going into the next season, Garcia sets a bar of production that needs to be replaced now. I think Renfroe definitely has the ability to replace that production if his historic low BABIP is shown to be an anomaly. The biggest difference maker now is if they're able to take advantage of not spending that extra money on replacing Garcia in RF and spend it to improve the team in another way significantly. That said, I don't know what the budget constraints are at this point. It could be they need to keep making moves like this one that don't actually raise the payroll, we don't see any significant improvements here on out, and we just need to hope we can ride the pitching staff again like we did last year.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think using Garcia's contract as a comp to what Renfroe would be worth would be correct. I think most would agree that Garcia was overpaid. Perhaps Miami had to overpay to get him to sign with them. Regardless, he's roughly a 1 WAR/year better player than Renfro and is projected to be this year as well. That's about a $5 million per year difference between the two right there.

 

I was using it as a way to demonstrate the market for one-dimensional corner outfielder bats isn't exactly soft. I get Avi is slightly better but I don't consider a projected .8 higher WAR for next season to be worth roughly $5 million more next year.

While it was not a perfect comparison I seriously doubt we can get someone of the same caliber of player as Renfroe at the price we have Renfroe for. It would take roughly another $4-$5 million and several more years to get that.

[Simba2020]

True. When evaluating if acquiring Renfroe improves the team from what they would have been without acquiring him, then Garcia is a non-factor, and it seems fairly obvious that Renfroe should be a better option than our current other options, and without raising payroll he was a more efficient acquisition than signing a similar player on the open market.

 

However, in evaluating if the team has improved/maintained the amount of talent/results they had from last year going into the next season, Garcia sets a bar of production that needs to be replaced now. I think Renfroe definitely has the ability to replace that production if his historic low BABIP is shown to be an anomaly. The biggest difference maker now is if they're able to take advantage of not spending that extra money on replacing Garcia in RF and spend it to improve the team in another way significantly. That said, I don't know what the budget constraints are at this point. It could be they need to keep making moves like this one that don't actually raise the payroll, we don't see any significant improvements here on out, and we just need to hope we can ride the pitching staff again like we did last year.

I wouldn't count on that BABIP to magically increase his batting average. Last year's BABIP of .284 was the best of his career with .275 being his next best. The league may average something around .300 but for some guys that would be a dream and for others a nightmare. For Renfroe that would seem to be an absolute dream that will likely never come true.

[monty57]

...in evaluating if the team has improved/maintained the amount of talent/results they had from last year going into the next season, Garcia sets a bar of production that needs to be replaced now...

 

In looking at it that way, we have Renfroe instead of Garcia. Somewhat of a wash in offense, and a downgrade in defense.

 

We also get a full season of Adames. Tellez (.814 OPS) will get a lot of the PAs that went to Hiura (.557 OPS), Vogelbach (.730 OPS) and Shaw (.616 OPS) last season, while Taylor (.778 OPS) will likely get a lot of the PAs that went to guys like JBJ (.497 OPS) and McKinney (.619 OPS). Meanwhile, Urias won't have the pressure of being the starting SS, where he floundered (OPS of .697, wRC+ of 88, -8.0 career UZR/150), and will be at 3B (.809 OPS/117 wRC+/6.3 career UZR/150) or 2B (1.044/176/-0.3) where he seems much more comfortable.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens once the CBA issues are figured out and the offseason can resume. I'm sure Stearns isn't done tinkering, especially since he now has a little more money to work with, so we won't know what the finished product looks like until the offseason's over.

 

And it's good to remember that even after giving up for the final two weeks of the season, we still won 95 games last year. So, if all we do is replace what we lost, we still have a pretty good team.

[TURBO]

This needs to be the year that we spend more than we are comfortable with spending.

 

If not this year, then when?

 

We basically have a 2-3 year window to make things happen. After that, unless Small and Ashby can replace Burnes and Woodruff, we will not have the pitching we will have the next 2-3 years.

 

Now is the time!

[brewcrewdue80]

Just to throw some stuff out there in regards to comparing Renfroe to Garcia...

 

2019-21:

 

2019-21 vs. RHP:

 

2019-21 vs. LHP:

 

So very similar in BB% and K%, but Renfroe has a bit more power. However, the biggest difference is Renfroe's low .250ish BABIP compared to Garcia's high .320ish BABIP, resulting in a higher AVG (and correspondingly higher OBP) for Garcia. If that can be contributed to a bit of bad luck (not saying that's for sure the case) and his BABIP gets closer to a league average of around .300, he could put up some really nice numbers.

 

One of the things that contributes to Renfroe's poor BABIP is that he's a guy that bats vs a shift while having a higher Launch Angle. We'll have to see how the NL Central employs the shift as often as he's faced or not.

[SRB]

In comparing Renfroe vs. Garcia, it's worth noting that most of the difference ends up being from the flukiness of advanced defensive metrics.

 

Covering the last three full seasons (2018-2021), which includes down seasons in 2020 for each, their offensive performance is remarkably similar:

 

Hunter Renfroe: 1646 PA, .330 wOBA, 107 wRC+

Avisail Garcia: 1637 PA, .326 wOBA, 105 wRC+

 

Steamer projects remarkably similar offense in 2022:

 

Hunter Renfroe: .329 wOBA, 106 wRC+

Avisail Garcia: .328 wOBA, 109 wRC+

 

The difference in past/projected WAR comes down to whether you prefer Fangraphs or Baseball Reference defensive stats. UZR thinks Garcia is a much better defender, whereas Total Zone thinks Renfroe is a much better defender:

 

2018-2021 Hunter Renfroe: +5.2 UZR, +20 Total Zone

2018-2021 Avisail Garcia: +10.7 UZR, +5 Total Zone

 

One reason to be optimistic about Renfroe's defense is that the scouting report seems to be he has so-so range but an excellent arm. It stands to reason that he will pair particularly well with Lorenzo Cain in CF, since Cain has some of the best range in all of baseball and can cover a lot of ground where CF/RF overlap.

 

So I think overall they are remarkably similar players. The difference being that Avisail Garcia is universally beloved on here and just signed a 3/$60M contract, whereas Hunter Renfroe is arbitration eligible for two more seasons and many on here think he is "garbage"...

[TURBO]

Garcia is beloved here?

[SoCalBrewfan]

The difference being that Avisail Garcia is universally beloved on here and just signed a 3/$60M contract

 

Are either of these things true? I'm with turbo in the skepticism of the first part. And 4/$53M is what I've seen reported, and the difference between $20M/year and $13.25M/year is substantial.

 

Look, I think it's a decent acquisition, but it's also important to have some objectivity. And to argue in good faith; I think exactly one person said 'garbage' and that person went on to explain that it's not that Renfroe has no value, it's that the Red Sox were ready to move on and get what they could for a player that they didn't have a role for.

 

Also, someone asked above whether a 0.8 difference in projected WAR could be worth $5M...well, yes, the objective analysis of free agent contracts suggest that it's actually a bit more. Of course Garcia's WAR are necessarily going to be more costly because of his ability to negotiate on the open market...but even on the open market I'd expect he'd get more. Garcia's projection must have huge error bars, though...I am cautiously glad we didn't sign him to that deal.

[Outlander]

Garcia is beloved here?

Definitely not, revisionist history if somebody really believes that. He had a heck of a year but plenty of criticism for him since the initial signing.

[CheezWizHed]

Garcia's signing with the Brewers brought a lot of complaints, but he ultimately lived up to that contract. Last year, he was our best (or one of the best) hitters we had and was missed when he was out of the lineup. He did get a lot of "love" in the in game threads.

 

Now, he was no Robin Yount, but a lot of people thought fondly of what he did for us...though not enough to sign him to that contract. In that light, I think SRB meant that when someone produces well for you, it can cloud the judgement in comparing that person to someone you don't know well and simply look at their mediocre stats.

[Thurston Fluff]

Also, someone asked above whether a 0.8 difference in projected WAR could be worth $5M...well, yes, the objective analysis of free agent contracts suggest that it's actually a bit more. Of course Garcia's WAR are necessarily going to be more costly because of his ability to negotiate on the open market...but even on the open market I'd expect he'd get more. Garcia's projection must have huge error bars, though...I am cautiously glad we didn't sign him to that deal.

 

That was me. I know the metrics out there state such and such WAR is worth such and such dollars. But as noted above, even the advanced metrics disagree on what good defense is. I fail to see how one can accurately measure dollar value via WAR when people can't even settle on a single definition of WAR. Or even what good defense is for that matter. Which is why I never really liked using it. I probably shouldn't have used it there either but it made for an easy illustration. I still stand by my belief Renfroe would get far more in free agency than what a soft market for average corner outfielders would dictate. I also believe the free agent market is our best indicator of value.

[Roderick]

This needs to be the year that we spend more than we are comfortable with spending.

 

If not this year, then when?

 

We basically have a 2-3 year window to make things happen. !

 

Just because they don't spend money before training camp, doesn't mean they have no intention of spending yet this year. They will have to sign a bullpen guy or two before the season, but maybe DS/MA feel like waiting until trading deadline to see where are deficiencies are? If you spend money now on a 1B upgrade and Urias or someone gets hurt, will they be able to replace? Whereas you can hold that money now and have the money to use at the trading deadline.

 

Also, you said it yourself. 2-3 year window. Overspend this year and it doesn't work out, it quite possibly hurts our chances the next two years.

 

That said, I sure would like to trade for Matt Olson and get a bat for cleanup.

[endaround]

In comparing Renfroe vs. Garcia, it's worth noting that most of the difference ends up being from the flukiness of advanced defensive metrics.

 

Covering the last three full seasons (2018-2021), which includes down seasons in 2020 for each, their offensive performance is remarkably similar:

 

Hunter Renfroe: 1646 PA, .330 wOBA, 107 wRC+

Avisail Garcia: 1637 PA, .326 wOBA, 105 wRC+

 

Steamer projects remarkably similar offense in 2022:

 

Hunter Renfroe: .329 wOBA, 106 wRC+

Avisail Garcia: .328 wOBA, 109 wRC+

 

The difference in past/projected WAR comes down to whether you prefer Fangraphs or Baseball Reference defensive stats. UZR thinks Garcia is a much better defender, whereas Total Zone thinks Renfroe is a much better defender:

 

2018-2021 Hunter Renfroe: +5.2 UZR, +20 Total Zone

2018-2021 Avisail Garcia: +10.7 UZR, +5 Total Zone

 

One reason to be optimistic about Renfroe's defense is that the scouting report seems to be he has so-so range but an excellent arm. It stands to reason that he will pair particularly well with Lorenzo Cain in CF, since Cain has some of the best range in all of baseball and can cover a lot of ground where CF/RF overlap.

 

So I think overall they are remarkably similar players. The difference being that Avisail Garcia is universally beloved on here and just signed a 3/$60M contract, whereas Hunter Renfroe is arbitration eligible for two more seasons and many on here think he is "garbage"...

 

Statcast has their OOA the same last year at -2. So both slightly below average. Now UZR gives a lot of errors to Renfroe which causes him to fall. It may be if he stops using his arm as much he'll be better.

[PeaveyFury]

If the thought continues to be Garcia vs. Renfroe, there's value in questioning consistency of expected results. Renfroe has been astoundingly consistent in WAR output, while Garcia has notably done an 'every other year' thing:

Renfroe

18: 2.4 WAR

19: 2.4 WAR

20: 0.0

21: 2.3 WAR

 

Garcia:

18: 0.5

19: 2.2

20: -0.2

21: 2.9