Brewers trade for Hunter Renfroe in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

[TURBO]

Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ.

 

I'm just curious, what would be the upside in just keeping him?

[brewcrewdue80]

I checked baseball savant last night on Renfroe. He hit 31HRs last season. In their overview of HRs he would have hit at other ballparks, I believe AmFam had 35 or 36. But 2 stadiums. LA had 40 and Cincinnati had a whopping 42HRs. Overall a vast majority of Stadiums he would have hit 4-6 more HRs than what he finished hitting. We're talking basically having 2seasons of Binelas' upside today versus 3+seasons from now hoping.

[AKCheesehead]

Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ.

 

I'm just curious, what would be the upside in just keeping him?

 

I suppose he’s talking about JBJ’s upside, shown as recently as 2020, and his elite defense. Make no mistake, I’m not bashing the trade nor am I predicting JBJ will be as good as or better than Renfroe in 2022. But of course it’s not entirely beyond the realm of possibility that JBJ rebounds. I would expect him to be better than he was in 2021 anyways, it would be tough not to.

[JosephC]

I'd put surplus values as follows.

 

The remaining amount of money on his deal is 21.5 million, so 1.8 - 21.5....I have his surplus value as a -19.7 million dollars.

 

Boston gets-

Bradley = -19.7

Hamilton = +5.5

Binelas = +5.5

Total = -8.7

 

Brewers get-

Renfroe = +4.75

Total = +4.75

 

 

I made a mistake with the amount of money remaining on Bradley's deal. 2023 is a mutual option for 12 million with an 8 million dollar buyout. I used 12 million when I only should have used 8 million.

 

So Bradley's surplus value should have been -15.7, making the numbers a bit closer but still giving the Brewers an advantage in the surplus value calculation.

[JosephC]

Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ.

 

I'm just curious, what would be the upside in just keeping him?

 

Bradley badly underperformed in 2021 and overperformed in 2020. He was pretty consistent with the bat from 2017-2019, slashing .234/.318/.409/.727 over those three years. His average bWAR/fWAR over those three years was 2.4 WAR. Renfroe just came off a season where his OBP was nearly 20 points higher than his career average (2021 = .315, career = .297) and nearly 35 points higher than it was in the previous 2 seasons (in 2019 and 2020 he posted a .281 OBP). Despite the .315 OBP and 31 home runs, his bWAR/fWAR for the season was 2.1. So if Bradley returns to be the player he was from 2017-2019, throwing out the plus and negative performances of the last two years, chances are pretty good that he will be a better player than Renfroe in terms of WAR.

 

The more and more I looked at this deal and the historical numbers between Bradley and Renfroe, I'd be pretty surprised if Stearns sees Renfroe as a better player than Bradley. Now if Bradley went to Stearns and said he hated Milwaukee and asked him to do anything he could do to get him out of Milwaukee, that would change things. But it looks like Stearns wanted nothing more than to dump this contract, and the best deal he could find was swapping a player with a comparable WAR and then giving up two prospects to make for the fact that Bradley will have guaranteed money coming in 2023 while Renfroe does not.

[SRB]

Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ.

 

I'm just curious, what would be the upside in just keeping him?

 

Bradley badly underperformed in 2021 and overperformed in 2020. He was pretty consistent with the bat from 2017-2019, slashing .234/.318/.409/.727 over those three years. His average bWAR/fWAR over those three years was 2.4 WAR. Renfroe just came off a season where his OBP was nearly 20 points higher than his career average (2021 = .315, career = .297) and nearly 35 points higher than it was in the previous 2 seasons (in 2019 and 2020 he posted a .281 OBP). Despite the .315 OBP and 31 home runs, his bWAR/fWAR for the season was 2.1. So if Bradley returns to be the player he was from 2017-2019, throwing out the plus and negative performances of the last two years, chances are pretty good that he will be a better player than Renfroe in terms of WAR.

 

The more and more I looked at this deal and the historical numbers between Bradley and Renfroe, I'd be pretty surprised if Stearns sees Renfroe as a better player than Bradley. Now if Bradley went to Stearns and said he hated Milwaukee and asked him to do anything he could do to get him out of Milwaukee, that would change things. But it looks like Stearns wanted nothing more than to dump this contract, and the best deal he could find was swapping a player with a comparable WAR and then giving up two prospects to make for the fact that Bradley will have guaranteed money coming in 2023 while Renfroe does not.

 

Come on man, I was probably one of the most optimistic people on here about a JBJ rebound, but he just came off literally one of the worst, most inept offensive seasons in MLB history. Penciling him in to be a 2+ WAR player is extreeeeeemely optimistic (or, in this case, pessimistic about a genius move that Stearns pulled off).

 

Anyway, even if we assume that both JBJ and Renfroe are roughly 2 WAR players, this is still a genius move, because JBJ is significantly more expensive (if you include the binding 2023 option), and Renfroe fits our needs far better as an offensive-minded corner OF with power who mashes LHP. Suggesting that this was merely a contract dump is inaccurate.

[Simba2020]

Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ.

 

I'm just curious, what would be the upside in just keeping him?

 

Bradley badly underperformed in 2021 and overperformed in 2020. He was pretty consistent with the bat from 2017-2019, slashing .234/.318/.409/.727 over those three years. His average bWAR/fWAR over those three years was 2.4 WAR. Renfroe just came off a season where his OBP was nearly 20 points higher than his career average (2021 = .315, career = .297) and nearly 35 points higher than it was in the previous 2 seasons (in 2019 and 2020 he posted a .281 OBP). Despite the .315 OBP and 31 home runs, his bWAR/fWAR for the season was 2.1. So if Bradley returns to be the player he was from 2017-2019, throwing out the plus and negative performances of the last two years, chances are pretty good that he will be a better player than Renfroe in terms of WAR.

 

The more and more I looked at this deal and the historical numbers between Bradley and Renfroe, I'd be pretty surprised if Stearns sees Renfroe as a better player than Bradley. Now if Bradley went to Stearns and said he hated Milwaukee and asked him to do anything he could do to get him out of Milwaukee, that would change things. But it looks like Stearns wanted nothing more than to dump this contract, and the best deal he could find was swapping a player with a comparable WAR and then giving up two prospects to make for the fact that Bradley will have guaranteed money coming in 2023 while Renfroe does not.

Personally, I largely agree with you. To me it was MOSTLY a salary dump. For me, I'd value Bradley as having roughly -10 million in surplus value, Hamilton at maybe $3 to $4 million and Binelas at about $5 million. I would view Renfroe as having very little surplus value especially if he gets the $7.6 million in arbitration that's projected.

 

It wouldn't be shocking to me if Bradley did put up higher fWAR this year than Renfroe. A return to Boston could help him big time in bouncing back. Now most of that value would still be derived from his defense as I'd certainly expect Renfroe to have a much more impactful offensive season than Bradley and probably better overall in terms of WAR. It just wouldn't shock me if it went the other way. I also put the odds of Renfroe being non-tendered after 2022 at greater than 50%.

 

I'm still happy with the trade as I couldn't stomach seeing Bradley in a Brewers uniform any longer.

[JosephC]

 

Come on man, I was probably one of the most optimistic people on here about a JBJ rebound, but he just came off literally one of the worst, most inept offensive seasons in MLB history. Penciling him in to be a 2+ WAR player is extreeeeeemely optimistic (or, in this case, pessimistic about a genius move that Stearns pulled off).

 

Anyway, even if we assume that both JBJ and Renfroe are roughly 2 WAR players, this is still a genius move, because JBJ is significantly more expensive (if you include the binding 2023 option), and Renfroe fits our needs far better as an offensive-minded corner OF with power who mashes LHP. Suggesting that this was merely a contract dump is inaccurate.

 

The point is that Bradley doesn't have to be more than an average hitter to be a valuable player as measured by WAR. He can hit a pretty unremarkable .234/.318/.409/.727, nothing remarkable by MLB standards, and still be a 2.4 WAR player because of his plus-plus defense. His own numbers from 2017-2019 demonstrate that.

 

There are some peripherals that suggest Bradley had incredibly bad luck in 2021. His soft%/medium%/hard% was 18.8/54.2/27.1 during his big year in 2020. Last year the numbers were 15.1/50.8/34.1, so his percentage of soft hit balls went down and hard hit balls went up. Despite that, he had a BABIP of .226, which is almost an unheard of number (generally Bradley's BABIP sits in the .290-.300 range). His home run/fly ball ratio was 7.6%, historically he's been about 15.0% which is right around the league average. The alarming numbers were that his walk rate went down and his strikeout rate went up. Normally his BB/K sits at about 0.35 and last year dropped to 0.21. Maybe that is a decline in ability, but it also could be due to the Brewers having him take different approaches with his hitting. Time will tell, but with a BABIP of .226 and a HR/FB of 7.6%, I chances are very good that in 2022 he'll be much, much closer to the .234/.318/.409/.727 he posted from 2017-2019 instead of the .163/.236/.261/.497 he posted in 2020.

[wntrtxn21]

 

Come on man, I was probably one of the most optimistic people on here about a JBJ rebound, but he just came off literally one of the worst, most inept offensive seasons in MLB history. Penciling him in to be a 2+ WAR player is extreeeeeemely optimistic (or, in this case, pessimistic about a genius move that Stearns pulled off).

 

Anyway, even if we assume that both JBJ and Renfroe are roughly 2 WAR players, this is still a genius move, because JBJ is significantly more expensive (if you include the binding 2023 option), and Renfroe fits our needs far better as an offensive-minded corner OF with power who mashes LHP. Suggesting that this was merely a contract dump is inaccurate.

 

The point is that Bradley doesn't have to be more than an average hitter to be a valuable player as measured by WAR. He can hit a pretty unremarkable .234/.318/.409/.727, nothing remarkable by MLB standards, and still be a 2.4 WAR player because of his plus-plus defense. His own numbers from 2017-2019 demonstrate that.

 

There are some peripherals that suggest Bradley had incredibly bad luck in 2021. His soft%/medium%/hard% was 18.8/54.2/27.1 during his big year in 2020. Last year the numbers were 15.1/50.8/34.1, so his percentage of soft hit balls went down and hard hit balls went up. Despite that, he had a BABIP of .226, which is almost an unheard of number (generally Bradley's BABIP sits in the .290-.300 range). His home run/fly ball ratio was 7.6%, historically he's been about 15.0% which is right around the league average. The alarming numbers were that his walk rate went down and his strikeout rate went up. Normally his BB/K sits at about 0.35 and last year dropped to 0.21. Maybe that is a decline in ability, but it also could be due to the Brewers having him take different approaches with his hitting. Time will tell, but with a BABIP of .226 and a HR/FB of 7.6%, I chances are very good that in 2022 he'll be much, much closer to the .234/.318/.409/.727 he posted from 2017-2019 instead of the .163/.236/.261/.497 he posted in 2020.

 

You're right about the most alarming numbers. 132 Ks (nearly 31%) compared to a paltry 28 BBs (6.5%). That's why I don't believe it was bad luck that JBJ was so horrible last year. He was whiffing on almost any pitch in any location. He had a hard time catching up to fastballs. Normally you see this as guys get older and have to guess on pitches because their bat has slowed down. He would hit it hard when he guessed right and whiff when he was wrong. However, JBJ should be in his prime at 31. I believe, being a veteran player, any different approach he took was all his doings. Sadly he got worse as the season progressed. In Sept/Oct he whiffed 19 times in 48 PAs compared to two walks. Hopfully Renfroe will bring a great deal more to the offense. It just can't be any worse.

[CheezWizHed]

Well, certainly there was upside in just keeping JBJ.

 

I'm just curious, what would be the upside in just keeping him?

 

I'll answer as it was addressed to me, but several others said about the same thing. The chances of him having another historically bad season are low with a much better chance of him regressing towards his average season. His defense brings a big positive. Not sure if he would be a 2.0WAR player again, but pretty doubtful he will be as bad as 2021 in 2022.

 

However, I wasn't saying it was a bad trade... we gave up some players to improve our situation with Renfroe, just not drastically better.

[brewmann04]

I think the next hitter will come via FA.

[Roderick]

https://theathletic.com/2995533/2021/12/03/rosenthal-labor-dispute-is-about-one-thing-freemans-destination-could-impact-olson-verlander-mystery-more-notes/

 

the Brewers dangled Jackie Bradley Jr. in trades for a variety of other outfielders, including the Blue Jays’ Randal Grichuk, sources said. Unlike the Renfroe deal, in which the Brewers parted with Bradley and two infield prospects, a Grichuk trade would have been one-for-one.

 

So, why lose the prospects, infielder David Hamilton and Alex Binelas, who ranked 16th and 17th for the Brewers respectively, according to MLBPipeline.com? Because in the Bradley-Renfroe exchange, the Brewers created greater payroll flexibility for 2022, saving about $10 million. The Bradley-Grichuk swap likely would have been a financial wash. And Renfroe was just more appealing overall.

 

Both Renfroe and Grichuk are entering their age 30 seasons, but Renfroe is coming off the better year (112 OPS-plus to 89), and his contractual status gives the Brewers a measure of added flexibility. Grichuk is locked into $9.3 million salaries in each of the next two seasons, while Renfroe is projected to earn $7.6 million in arbitration in 2022 before becoming eligible for the process a final time in ’23. He potentially would have greater trade value if the Brewers faced a financial crunch, particularly if he and Grichuk were similar to what they were in ’21.

[narwhalattack]

While I do agree that Renfroe is better than Grichuk, the added payroll flexibility seems marginal at best. Especially considering how much free agents are signing for this year, it would be like giving a broke college kid a dollar and telling them that they have a bit more financial flexibility now.

[Jopal78]

https://theathletic.com/2995533/2021/12/03/rosenthal-labor-dispute-is-about-one-thing-freemans-destination-could-impact-olson-verlander-mystery-more-notes/

 

the Brewers dangled Jackie Bradley Jr. in trades for a variety of other outfielders, including the Blue Jays’ Randal Grichuk, sources said. Unlike the Renfroe deal, in which the Brewers parted with Bradley and two infield prospects, a Grichuk trade would have been one-for-one.

 

So, why lose the prospects, infielder David Hamilton and Alex Binelas, who ranked 16th and 17th for the Brewers respectively, according to MLBPipeline.com? Because in the Bradley-Renfroe exchange, the Brewers created greater payroll flexibility for 2022, saving about $10 million. The Bradley-Grichuk swap likely would have been a financial wash. And Renfroe was just more appealing overall.

 

Both Renfroe and Grichuk are entering their age 30 seasons, but Renfroe is coming off the better year (112 OPS-plus to 89), and his contractual status gives the Brewers a measure of added flexibility. Grichuk is locked into $9.3 million salaries in each of the next two seasons, while Renfroe is projected to earn $7.6 million in arbitration in 2022 before becoming eligible for the process a final time in ’23. He potentially would have greater trade value if the Brewers faced a financial crunch, particularly if he and Grichuk were similar to what they were in ’21.

 

Randal Grichuk has a guaranteed contract through 2023 which actually pays him more money than Bradley is owed over the same time. Once the Brewers found out they could trade their garbage for another team's cheaper garbage, that was likely the end of any talks about Grichuk.

 

With JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Kiki Hernandez already on the roster, the outfield is already full and Boston surely wants to resign Kyle Schwarber. The Red Sox were able to get something in exchange for Renfroe, a player they didn't need or want. Likewise, with JBJ the Brewers were able to gain some salary relief and unload a player they no longer wanted.

[SRB]

https://theathletic.com/2995533/2021/12/03/rosenthal-labor-dispute-is-about-one-thing-freemans-destination-could-impact-olson-verlander-mystery-more-notes/

 

the Brewers dangled Jackie Bradley Jr. in trades for a variety of other outfielders, including the Blue Jays’ Randal Grichuk, sources said. Unlike the Renfroe deal, in which the Brewers parted with Bradley and two infield prospects, a Grichuk trade would have been one-for-one.

 

So, why lose the prospects, infielder David Hamilton and Alex Binelas, who ranked 16th and 17th for the Brewers respectively, according to MLBPipeline.com? Because in the Bradley-Renfroe exchange, the Brewers created greater payroll flexibility for 2022, saving about $10 million. The Bradley-Grichuk swap likely would have been a financial wash. And Renfroe was just more appealing overall.

 

Both Renfroe and Grichuk are entering their age 30 seasons, but Renfroe is coming off the better year (112 OPS-plus to 89), and his contractual status gives the Brewers a measure of added flexibility. Grichuk is locked into $9.3 million salaries in each of the next two seasons, while Renfroe is projected to earn $7.6 million in arbitration in 2022 before becoming eligible for the process a final time in ’23. He potentially would have greater trade value if the Brewers faced a financial crunch, particularly if he and Grichuk were similar to what they were in ’21.

 

Randal Grichuk has a guaranteed contract through 2023 which actually pays him more money than Bradley is owed over the same time. Once the Brewers found out they could trade their garbage for another team's cheaper garbage, that was likely the end of any talks about Grichuk.

 

With JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Kiki Hernandez already on the roster, the outfield is already full and Boston surely wants to resign Kyle Schwarber. The Red Sox were able to get something in exchange for Renfroe, a player they didn't need or want. Likewise, with JBJ the Brewers were able to gain some salary relief and unload a player they no longer wanted.

 

Hunter Renfroe is "another team's cheaper garbage"? This is the most insanely negative fan forum in existence!!!

 

Really exhausting. But whatever, I've said my piece.

[Outlander]

I'll agree with you there, Renfroe isn't garbage. If the Red Sox didn't see any value in him they could have just non-tendered him and been done with it.

[TURBO]

I think we have to just accept the fact that that Renfroe will be an average player with some HR pop. He will more than likely outplay Bradley, and then we don't have to pay him 2 years longer than Bradley.

 

The only sting for me is that we had to give up 2 guys in our top 20 (minors). I realize that was going to have to happen, so I have made peace with it.

[Jopal78]

 

Hunter Renfroe is "another team's cheaper garbage"? This is the most insanely negative fan forum in existence!!!

 

Really exhausting. But whatever, I've said my piece.

 

It's not being negative. It is a fact, neither Boston nor Milwaukee wanted the player they traded away. Therefore, they're garbage, surplusage, filler whatever term you want to use for a player that is on the roster that's not in the future plans.

 

That being said I don't have a problem with the trade, the Brewers wanted to create some financial breathing room so they used their farm system to move an expensive surplus player for another team's cheaper filler.

 

It is the spin that Renfroe is somehow an upgrade to the roster that is irritating. They went from an outfield group of Yelich, Cain, Garcia, Bradley and Taylor to Yelich, Cain, Renfroe, Taylor. It's a lateral move that only warrants 10+ pages worth of posts because there's no other Brewer news to talk about.

[mtrebs]

 

Hunter Renfroe is "another team's cheaper garbage"? This is the most insanely negative fan forum in existence!!!

 

Really exhausting. But whatever, I've said my piece.

 

It's not being negative. It is a fact, neither Boston nor Milwaukee wanted the player they traded away. Therefore, they're garbage, surplusage, filler whatever term you want to use for a player that is on the roster that's not in the future plans.

 

That being said I don't have a problem with the trade, the Brewers wanted to create some financial breathing room so they used their farm system to move an expensive surplus player for another team's cheaper filler.

 

It is the spin that Renfroe is somehow an upgrade to the roster that is irritating. They went from an outfield group of Yelich, Cain, Garcia, Bradley and Taylor to Yelich, Cain, Renfroe, Taylor. It's a lateral move that only warrants 10+ pages worth of posts because there's no other Brewer news to talk about.

 

It is an upgrade though. Prior to the trade we had Yelich, Cain, JBJ, Taylor, and whoever in the OF. Garcia was already gone and left a hole in RF. After the trade we got rid of JBJ and filled the spot vacated by Garcia for less than what we owed JBJ. Yelich, Cain, Renfroe, Taylor, and whoever is better than what we had before the trade.

[jerichoholicninja]

Renfroe played 144 games, got close to 600 PA's, and by far had the most innings in the OF for the Red Sox. Saying he was unwanted, surplus garbage to the Red Sox just doesn't seem to be true at all.

[Simba2020]

I think it is true that Boston did not want Renfroe either. They are looking to upgrade that position. I know they are big on Suzuki. I think they were very high on one or both of the prospects they got and are at least somewhat confident they can get Bradley back to being at least a competent player again. So while not exactly garbage, they were able to improve their farm system while still hoping/planning/expecting to improve their outfield situation on top of it.

[TURBO]

I think it is true that Boston did not want Renfroe either. They are looking to upgrade that position. I know they are big on Suzuki. I think they were very high on one or both of the prospects they got and are at least somewhat confident they can get Bradley back to being at least a competent player again. So while not exactly garbage, they were able to improve their farm system while still hoping/planning/expecting to improve their outfield situation on top of it.

 

Yeah, I think they intend to get Suzuki, so Bradley will be their 4 or 5 outfielder.

[wallus]

If Boston didn't want Renfroe, they could have non tendered him.

[Simba2020]

If Boston didn't want Renfroe, they could have non tendered him.

Renfroe did have some stand-alone value so why would they non-tender him? Just because they tendered him a contract doesn't mean they really wanted the guy. They could have almost certainly have traded Renfroe to somebody else for a lesser prospect.

 

To me it's very clear what this trade was all about. From the Brewers perspective, 1) rid themselves of Bradley 2) rid themselves of JBJ, and 3) add Renfroe. From the Red Sox point of view it was all about adding two prospects they liked.

[wallus]

If Boston didn't want Renfroe, they could have non tendered him.

Renfroe did have some stand-alone value so why would they non-tender him? Just because they tendered him a contract doesn't mean they really wanted the guy. They could have almost certainly have traded Renfroe to somebody else for a lesser prospect.

 

To me it's very clear what this trade was all about. From the Brewers perspective, 1) rid themselves of Bradley 2) rid themselves of JBJ, and 3) add Renfroe. From the Red Sox point of view it was all about adding two prospects they liked.

 

My post was in response to another poster calling him garbage because they traded him. How do you know the view point of the Red Sox? Maybe they considered letting JBJ go as a mistake and wanted him back.