2022 Brewers Prospect Rankings

[clancyphile]

Barker's languishing in AAA, especially in 2021, has been mystifying to me.

 

He's pitched well enough and I think he's a good 7th inning option. He'd also be cheap. So why isn't he getting a shot?

[bigred]

I kind of wish that places would rank prospects differently. I know the 80 scale is traditional but I kind of would make like a multi score composite ranking that finds a way to sort out potential/floor/position or versatility. For example, relievers get put way down on prospect list but can be way more important than most guys above them. Take Luke Barker (AAA reliever) a guy who will never appear on a top 30 list going through the minors but will likely have more value to the big league team than someone like Tristen Lutz (at this point in his career) however Lutz is much higher on most every list based on assumed potential.

 

Here is my attempt at this 1st Stageman (I want credit if this takes off) Scouting Score

I will use the current top 10 players as example and if this comes out well I may have to expand my idea. So the top 2 numbers will be a floor/potential and I will probably expand this idea as I think on it.

 

Floor- The floor number will be based more on the likelihood that the player is a key contributor to the major league team than if they don't reach potential. So if this based on a 100 point scale someone like Aaron Ashby would get a very high rating because he has shown that he can be a good reliever at least, so he gets maybe a 90. Brice Turang who has been solid and will undoubtedly get to the majors but there is doubt about if he will be more of a utility guy, solid starter, or All-Star SS maybe gets a 75. Someone like Joey Weimer gets like a 50, say Jefferson Quero gets like a 35, and Jackson Chorio gets like a 20.

 

Potential= This would be more traditional so a superstar gets 100, All-Star=85, high end everyday player=70, everyday starter=55, platoon/utility=40, 25= AAAA type player.

 

Mitchell 50/80= Composite Score= 65

Frelich 45/80= Composite Score=63

Turang 75/65= 70

Perez 40/90=65

Small 75/65=70

Quero 35/85=60

Black 40/65= 53

Ashby 90/85= 88

Gray 45/75=60

Kelly. 40/70=55

 

You could then sort lists based on potential (more traditional) or composite= more modern team value.

Maybe I need to add a 3rd component that adds a bit more value to a high potential prospect or 1 with a unique high end rare ability that will value a player more to other teams in a trade.

 

Thoughts?

 

Ummm...I'm confused . In your idea, how does a players "floor" rating being higher than their "potential" rating, make sense? No offense intended.

[sveumrules]

Barker's languishing in AAA, especially in 2021, has been mystifying to me.

 

He's pitched well enough and I think he's a good 7th inning option. He'd also be cheap. So why isn't he getting a shot?

 

For the same reason Cooper Hummel didn't get a shot at MLB even after going to the worst team in the league at the deadline, because there's more to it than just a stat line.

 

Hoby Milner (1.69 ERA | 24.0 K/BB ratio | 0.6 HR9) had an even prettier AAA line than Barker (2.35 ERA | 7.7 K/BB ratio | 1.3 HR9), but got lit up in his 21 MLB IP. That 1.3 HR9 for Barker is probably the most telling number in his stat line, if AAA hitters are taking him deep with that frequency what are MLB hitters going to do?

[Roderick]

Keith Law (so take it for what it is) Top 100

85. Bryce Turang

88. Sal Frelick

 

https://theathletic.com/3074113/2022/01/31/top-100-mlb-prospects-2022-keith-laws-rankings-with-adley-rutschman-at-no-1/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=%7B%7BcampaignId%7D%7D

[sveumrules]

KLaw being the high guy on Turang makes me even more OK with dealing Brice if we make a prospects for proven MLB bat kind of swap.

[Madhawk23]

KLaw being the high guy on Turang makes me even more OK with dealing Brice if we make a prospects for proven MLB bat kind of swap.

 

I take it that you aren't real high on Keith's evaluation of prospects? Just curious how everyone here feels about all of these prospect evaluators? Are there some that you think more highly of than others?

 

I noticed that Law only had one Cubs prospects in his recent Top 100 - Brennan Davis. So, I was pleasantly surprised that we had two guys in his list, while the Cubs only had one.

[sveumrules]

KLaw being the high guy on Turang makes me even more OK with dealing Brice if we make a prospects for proven MLB bat kind of swap.

 

I take it that you aren't real high on Keith's evaluation of prospects? Just curious how everyone here feels about all of these prospect evaluators? Are there some that you think more highly of than others?

 

I noticed that Law only had one Cubs prospects in his recent Top 100 - Brennan Davis. So, I was pleasantly surprised that we had two guys in his list, while the Cubs only had one.

 

For me personally I like the FanGraphs content the most, just because it is free & the most comprehensive. Baseball America has been around forever, so I guess I would probably put them 2nd.

 

BPro, MLB, KLaw, etc are all kind of a notch below for me personally.

 

I think the thing with Law specifically is it seems like he digs his heels in on guys sometimes & is slow to consider new information/change his evaluation.

[Madhawk23]

KLaw being the high guy on Turang makes me even more OK with dealing Brice if we make a prospects for proven MLB bat kind of swap.

 

I take it that you aren't real high on Keith's evaluation of prospects? Just curious how everyone here feels about all of these prospect evaluators? Are there some that you think more highly of than others?

 

I noticed that Law only had one Cubs prospects in his recent Top 100 - Brennan Davis. So, I was pleasantly surprised that we had two guys in his list, while the Cubs only had one.

 

For me personally I like the FanGraphs content the most, just because it is free & the most comprehensive. Baseball America has been around forever, so I guess I would probably put them 2nd.

 

BPro, MLB, KLaw, etc are all kind of a notch below for me personally.

 

I think the thing with Law specifically is it seems like he digs his heels in on guys sometimes & is slow to consider new information/change his evaluation.

 

Thanks for your feedback. I know most the talent evaluators names, but I honestly couldn't tell you which one's are more reliable than the others. I know Law used to be at ESPN before going to the Athletic, and the Athletic tends to hire good people from what I've seen - so I guess I just assumed that he was pretty highly thought of with his evals. But, I also know from his ESPN days that it seemed like he would go out on more of a limb with certain guys that he really believed in, that other's didn't think as highly of. Would be interesting to go back and actually evaluate the evaluators - to see which one's have had a higher % of success evaluating these prospects over the years. With that said though - I certainly don't have the time to do that! Ha!

[sveumrules]

I don't know, maybe it hasn't updated for 2022, but the MLB Top 30 has Ashby #8 & Wiemer #21, which seem like pretty dubious rankings to me.

 

Ashby's other ranks are #1 (BA & FG) & #3 (BP). Wiemer's other ranks are #2 (FG), #5 (BP) & #8 (BA).

[reillymcshane]

I don't know, maybe it hasn't updated for 2022, but the MLB Top 30 has Ashby #8 & Wiemer #21, which seem like pretty dubious rankings to me.

This is 2021 rankings. They should have new rankings up sooner than later. Although they usually don't drop things all at once. It takes a few weeks to do them all.

 

They usually do a Top 100. Then top 10 positions - then teams - little by little.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

I don't know, maybe it hasn't updated for 2022, but the MLB Top 30 has Ashby #8 & Wiemer #21, which seem like pretty dubious rankings to me.

This is 2021 rankings. They should have new rankings up sooner than later. Although they usually don't drop things all at once. It takes a few weeks to do them all.

 

They usually do a Top 100. Then top 10 positions - then teams - little by little.

 

Each of the last two years, the MLB Pipeline Top 30 Brewers list has come out in mid-March. Assuming that the lockout doesn’t have an affect on this, which I don’t see why it would, it should be the same this year.

[trwi7]

Keith Law (so take it for what it is) Top 100

85. Bryce Turang

88. Sal Frelick

 

https://theathletic.com/3074113/2022/01/31/top-100-mlb-prospects-2022-keith-laws-rankings-with-adley-rutschman-at-no-1/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=%7B%7BcampaignId%7D%7D

 

Mitchell was on his just missed list too.

[StearnsFTW]

I see that Baseball America recently released their Top 100 prospects. I don't have a subscription to their online publication, so just curious if anyone can at least share which Brewers prospects made the cut and at what ranking? I see they also just tweeted out 15 prospects that just missed the Top 100, with a Carolina Mudcats player being profiled on the tweet. But, I can't really make out which player it is?

 

Ashby at #37 and that’s it. A bit surprising to be honest.

I feel like that's not that far off and Ashby is the clear headliner. I think Wiemer and Small would bring top 100 trade value though. Brewers pitchers have turned into a desirable commodity and every team would to bring in an upside guy like Wiemer.

 

Agree on Weimer. Disagree on Small. I personally don't see a ton of upside to him. Hope to be wrong.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Agree on Weimer. Disagree on Small. I personally don't see a ton of upside to him. Hope to be wrong.

 

Ashby might have a tick or so more on his FB, but otherwise he and Small have a very similar prospect trajectory, IMO. Small has dang fine minor league numbers to back it up, too.

[Smichaelis9]

KLaw being the high guy on Turang makes me even more OK with dealing Brice if we make a prospects for proven MLB bat kind of swap.

 

I take it that you aren't real high on Keith's evaluation of prospects? Just curious how everyone here feels about all of these prospect evaluators? Are there some that you think more highly of than others?

 

I noticed that Law only had one Cubs prospects in his recent Top 100 - Brennan Davis. So, I was pleasantly surprised that we had two guys in his list, while the Cubs only had one.

Just dropping in to say I really like Prospects Live’s work. I subscribe to their Patreon because imo they put the most effort and work, outside of maybe Fangraphs, into their lists. Even if you don’t pay, they have a lot of solid content for free too and all their contributors are active on Twitter.

[sveumrules]

Thanks for the heads up on Prospects Live. From the team lists published so far the available scouting reports are pretty thorough.

 

Looks like they do a lot of draft coverage too, & noted 2022 has pretty solid depth for college pitching. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers go college pitcher heavy this year with not much in the pipeline after Ashby/Small.

[StearnsFTW]

Agree on Weimer. Disagree on Small. I personally don't see a ton of upside to him. Hope to be wrong.

 

Ashby might have a tick or so more on his FB, but otherwise he and Small have a very similar prospect trajectory, IMO. Small has dang fine minor league numbers to back it up, too.

 

He did until last year. That's what concerns me. Chiefly, the K rate at AAA. Tiny sample size, I know.

[sveumrules]

For me Ashby's upside is something like Freddy. Electric stuff, but inconsistent command (due in part to how electric the stuff is) limiting how deep he can work in games. If the rotation doesn't work out, a high leverage relief role still isn't the worst outcome.

 

Small seems more along the lines of say 2021 Lauer (72 ERA- | 91 FIP-) or 2019 Davies (80 ERA- | 103 FIP-) or 2019 Gio (85 ERA- | 95 FIP-) or 2018 Jhoulys (87 ERA- | 99 FIP-), guys with peripherals closer to league average that the Brewers analytics & defense are able to coax notably better actual run prevention from.

[MadThinker88]

While many noted the various top 100 prospect lists being released, has anyone else noticed the release of various farm system rankings??

Baseball America & Bleacher Report have released their rankings this week.

 

Bleacher Report (Joel Reuter) had MKE at #25 in 2021 & now up to #20 in 2022.

Baseball America had at #28 in 2021 but I am still trying to locate the rank for 2022.

 

MKE is one of a handful of team rankings I am still trying to track down at the moment.

Currently I have teams/ rankings confirmed for the top 16 clubs along with #19, #20, #22, #23, #26 & #30.

 

Does anyone know the Brewer ranking for 2022 yet??

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

While many noted the various top 100 prospect lists being released, has anyone else noticed the release of various farm system rankings??

Baseball America & Bleacher Report have released their rankings this week.

 

Bleacher Report (Joel Reuter) had MKE at #25 in 2021 & now up to #20 in 2022.

Baseball America had at #28 in 2021 but I am still trying to locate the rank for 2022.

 

MKE is one of a handful of team rankings I am still trying to track down at the moment.

Currently I have teams/ rankings confirmed for the top 16 clubs along with #19, #20, #22, #23, #26 & #30.

 

Does anyone know the Brewer ranking for 2022 yet??

 

Pretty sure I saw Haudricourt mention #25 somewhere, but I could be mistaken.

[MadThinker88]

While many noted the various top 100 prospect lists being released, has anyone else noticed the release of various farm system rankings??

Baseball America & Bleacher Report have released their rankings this week.

 

Bleacher Report (Joel Reuter) had MKE at #25 in 2021 & now up to #20 in 2022.

Baseball America had at #28 in 2021 but I am still trying to locate the rank for 2022.

 

MKE is one of a handful of team rankings I am still trying to track down at the moment.

Currently I have teams/ rankings confirmed for the top 16 clubs along with #19, #20, #22, #23, #26 & #30.

 

Does anyone know the Brewer ranking for 2022 yet??

 

Pretty sure I saw Haudricourt mention #25 somewhere, but I could be mistaken.

 

Thanks.... Another confirmation of improvement down on the farm..

 

EDIT: Continued digging has revealed Oakland at #27, Houston at #28 & LA Angels at #29..

IF #25 is correct for MKE, that leaves 4 teams(St. Louis/ SD/ San Fran/ Colorado) and slot numbers 17. 18, 21 & 24...

 

Edit #2: San Fran confirmed as #17

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Here's the confirmation:

 

[MadThinker88]

Ok... I have been able to locate all 30 BA rankings (without paying for the subscription or waiting for the handbook).

 

Here are the ranks for the teams in the NL Central according to BA:

 

Pittsburgh #3 (up from #13)

Cincinnati #7 (up from #19)

ChiCubs #15 (up from #17)

St. Louis #18 (down from #12)

MKE #25 (up from #28)

[sveumrules]

Ok... I have been able to locate all 30 BA rankings (without paying for the subscription or waiting for the handbook).

 

Here are the ranks for the teams in the NL Central according to BA:

 

Pittsburgh #3 (up from #13)

Cincinnati #7 (up from #19)

ChiCubs #15 (up from #17)

St. Louis #18 (down from #12)

MKE #25 (up from #28)

 

Here are team wins over the last four years...

 

MKE: 309 (7th)

STL: 299 (10th)

CHC: 284 (13th)

CIN: 256 (21st)

PIT: 231 (25th)

 

Somewhat interesting that each clubs Farm Rank plus MLB Wins Rank adds up to 28, except the Brewers who add up to 32.

[PlayerHader]

Am I completely off in thinking that #25 seems quite low for our current system? Did Ashby graduate from their list?