2022 Projections Thread

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

These rankings are based on the projections, the only human element is splitting up the playing time.

FG staff has actually been pretty optimistic on the Brewers recently, even though Clemens is a Cardinals fan. They had us 26-2 over the Braves last year in the DS (whoops) even though the FG computers were at a 53.5/46.5 split.

 

 

 

There is 100% a human element to formulating projections.

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

There is 100% a human element to formulating projections.

No doubt, whoever runs the projection system has to determine how much weight to assign each of the howsoever many variables are at play.

But once that is done all biases inherent in the system are applied equally to all players regardless of team.

Also, speaking of FG congrats to @Brock Beauchamp on the Twins hire of Kevin Goldstein. Will miss reading his stuff.

[NBBrewFan]

24 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

These rankings are based on the projections, the only human element is splitting up the playing time.

FG staff has actually been pretty optimistic on the Brewers recently, even though Clemens is a Cardinals fan. They had us 26-2 over the Braves last year in the DS (whoops) even though the FG computers were at a 53.5/46.5 split.

I'm guessing that the issue is statistical noise when you go position by position where you have a much smaller sample to project. They seem to do better on the overall team projection where that statistical noise is averaged out. I would guess that there are going to be several positions where FG is over positive for the Brewers that at the end of the season (with likely better C and 1B results) end up close to their initial team projections. 

[JosephC]

13 hours ago, BallFour said:

They are completely selling Narvaez short with his defense. He has done nothing but produce defensively since he has come to this organization. I know that is only a season plus 60 games. During his time as a Brewer he is 3rd in fWAR defensive catcher value. This projects him to be 23rd in fWAR defensive catcher value. Barring injury find it hard to believe he would fall that hard in defensive value.

We will see if Severino can improve with the glove, I am skeptical with the shortened spring training. Find it interesting see Payton Henry as the projected backup catcher in Miami and out producing Severino's WAR although both are barely above replacement. 

Baseball Prospectus catcher defense rankings from 2021-

#4 = Omar Narvaez

#11 = Kyle Higashioka

#31 = Ben Rortvedt

Fangraphs own projections in the article have the Yankee catchers posting a miserable .277 OBP in 2022, and yet the Yankees catcher group ranks in the top half of the league (#14).  

[endaround]

10 minutes ago, JosephC said:

Baseball Prospectus catcher defense rankings from 2021-

#4 = Omar Narvaez

#11 = Kyle Higashioka

#31 = Ben Rortvedt

Fangraphs own projections in the article have the Yankee catchers posting a miserable .277 OBP in 2022, and yet the Yankees catcher group ranks in the top half of the league (#14).  

Sure as does Fangraphs for 2021. Navarez was also 65th with a negative value in 2019. So yeah he is projected to return closer to his mean.  Do I believe he won't fall off so far, yeah. But unless you personally touch everyone based on feel this is what one would expect. Given Navarez's terrible September, I'd worry about the added load of not have Pina around causing all his numbers to fall off.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, projections struggle with defense in general because it is so much noisier than offense.

I think that’s a big reason the Brewers have consistently outperformed the projections since Stearns & company got here as they’ve been one of the best defensive teams in MLB at +156 DRS (5th) & +49.9 FRM (3rd) since 2016.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, BallFour said:

Great point about facing lefties. That is probably something that the projection isn't picking up well. Maybe I am being too harsh on his defense since it did have positive value in his brief time in Washington and abruptly switched to negative after joining a team that loses 100+ games a year. 

All that to say I like my chances of the Brewers finishing closer to 10th in catcher WAR than the 25th place projection.

I have #2 penciled in Severino as One of my 'destined to Surprise and overperform' players on the roster. I'm pretty high on what he brings and feel the switch to the Brewers organization is going to revitalize him. These pre-season Catcher ratings? Not a fan and I find myself in fairly substantial disagreement.

[sveumrules]

After decades of planning trips to County Stadium or Miller Park trying to catch Teddy Higuera, or Ben Sheets, or CC Sabathia, or Zack Greinke, or any number of opposing pitchers' starts, I'm just going to revel in having the #2 SP & #1 RP projection entering the season...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-1-15/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/

What Stearns & company have done to flip the script on the franchise's pitching development in such a short time is pretty remarkable.  

[NBBrewFan]

I still remember taking the family to a Jimmy Haynes start back in 2001 just to check out MP. Thankfully the kids didn't have any idea about basic stats let alone advanced metrics or they could have claimed child abuse.

[sveumrules]

Coming up on being done with the first quarter of the season, here is a summary of where the various projections see the Brewers currently…

FanGraphs: 93 Wins (tied for 3rd with HOU/NYM) Win WS: 11.3% (4th) RS/G: 4.41 (8th)

BPro: 95.5 Wins (4th) Win WS: 11.2% (3rd) RS: 773 (tied for 6th with PHI)

538: 95 Wins (4th) Win WS: 8% (4th)

[sveumrules]

Looks like the various projections have the NL Contenders starting to separate into a few tiers (BPro | 538 | FanGraphs postseason odds)…

Dodgers Tier

LAD (100% | 99% | 97.7%)

Best of the Rest

SDP (98.8% | 88% | 91.2%)

MIL (98.6% | 90% | 94.6%)

NYM (94.7% | 83% | 87.3%)

Wild Cards

ATL (74.4% | 62% | 71.5%)

PHI (60.5% | 37% | 34.4%)

STL (29.7% | 54% | 42.4%)

SFG (23.9% | 53% | 66.9%)

Even though they’re still shaking off the rust, the computers think the Braves look like the best bet for #5 with the Phillies, Cards & Giants fighting it out for the last spot. Kind of interesting seeing the varying perspectives of the different projections on those last three.

Out of the sellers MIA has the best odds (8-10%), but still a pretty big long shot at this point.

[SRB]

Stats people need to stop using percentages like that, because they are highly misleading to the average reader. There is no way the Brewers have a "98.6% chance" of making the playoffs at this point in the season. ?

[sveumrules]

21 minutes ago, SRB said:

Stats people need to stop using percentages like that, because they are highly misleading to the average reader. There is no way the Brewers have a "98.6% chance" of making the playoffs at this point in the season. ?

How would you divvy up the 600% points among the 15 NL teams?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

44 minutes ago, SRB said:

Stats people need to stop using percentages like that, because they are highly misleading to the average reader. There is no way the Brewers have a "98.6% chance" of making the playoffs at this point in the season. ?

Yes, they do. That's how stats work. It is a projection of what they'd done so far but over the whole season. The numbers are proving the Brewers to be a good team, and they would have to significantly underperform to play themselves out of playoff contention. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Yes, they do. That's how stats work. It is a projection of what they'd done so far but over the whole season. The numbers are proving the Brewers to be a good team, and they would have to significantly underperform to play themselves out of playoff contention. 

Sometimes it's hard to believe people are actually fans of this team when they look for every reason to sell the team short despite what is clearly indicated by the stats.