Non-Brewers Free Agent Signings

[sveumrules]

Thought I'd start a catch all thread for non-Brewers free agent signings this offseason.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers for 5/77 is the first somewhat larger domino to fall & could represent the start of what might be an active hot stove season for Detroit.

 

MLBTR predicted 5/70, FanGraphs predicted 4/80.

[nate82]

Syndergaard to the Angels on a 1-year $21m contract.

 

https://nypost.com/2021/11/16/noah-syndergaard-leaving-mets-for-angels-on-21-million-deal/

[wibadgers23]

Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays for 7 years, $130 million. So you can just imagine what Burnes and Woody will get when their time comes.

[reillymcshane]

Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays for 7 years, $130 million. So you can just imagine what Burnes and Woody will get when their time comes.

Berrios has not been a great pitcher, but he's been incredibly consistent. And at 27, still time for him to get better.

[sveumrules]

Among 115 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 2017, here's how Berrios & ERod stack up...

 

JB | 793 IP (7th) | 84 ERA- (29th) | 87 FIP- (33rd) | 16.0 rWAR (16th) | 15.4 fWAR (14th)

ER | 628 IP (34th) | 89 ERA- (46th) | 85 FIP- (29th) | 12.0 rWAR (35th) | 11.6 fWAR (33rd)

 

Pretty close by both ERA- & FIP-, with Jose getting the WAR edge on account of all the extra IP.

[markedman5]

Verlander back to the Astros

 

[patrickgpe]

these guys are smart to sign before the CBA expires 12/1 and take that cash.

[Soupbone]

So the Astros sign Justin Verlander on the same day the Brewers sign Jonathan Davis, Trevor Kelley and Jason Alexander. Which signings will have more impact?

[mtrebs]

This is a crazy amount of money for someone with a half season of MLB experience.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/rays-rumors-wander-franco-extension-offer-record-150-200-million.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[sveumrules]

This is a crazy amount of money for someone with a half season of MLB experience.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/rays-rumors-wander-franco-extension-offer-record-150-200-million.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

I'd rather roll the dice on 10/150 or 10/200 for Wander after 70 G | 308 PAs than 14/340 for Tatis after 143 G | 629 PAs.

 

Gotta be hard to turn down that kind of money, but If I were Franco I'd probably wait until the CBA gets sorted out before agreeing to anything.

[nate82]

This is a crazy amount of money for someone with a half season of MLB experience.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/rays-rumors-wander-franco-extension-offer-record-150-200-million.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

I'd rather roll the dice on 10/150 or 10/200 for Wander after 70 G | 308 PAs than 14/340 for Tatis after 143 G | 629 PAs.

 

Gotta be hard to turn down that kind of money, but If I were Franco I'd probably wait until the CBA gets sorted out before agreeing to anything.

 

The CBA is probably the reason the Rays are doing this also. Pre arb and arbitration players are going to become more expensive. I think the days of paying a 1st year MLB $250k are now gone. Probably going to cost $1m or more.

 

Then when arbitration hits you could see FA $'s for these players in their first year of arbitration. Current MLB proposal is to have players paid based on their WAR numbers which could be an average of their last 4 years or anything in-between.

 

I think if you average Burnes WAR he would get something like $18m in his first year of arbitration.

 

So the Rays offering this they could actually be saving money especially for those arbitration years. But this all depends on the next CBA and how younger players are going to be paid. This will also probably be a reason why some smaller market teams will shy away from FA until the new CBA is signed.

 

For example the Brewers maybe in trouble financially if the new CBA raises the amount Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Hader and others could get in arbitration. If their salaries effectively double don't expect the Brewers to sign anyone in FA beyond roster fillers.

[Thurston Fluff]

IF they boost prearby/arby eligible players salaries there will have to be some sort of boost to revenue sharing. There is no way either players or small market teams will settle for one without the other. For small market teams the reason is obvious but if there are essentially ten teams that can afford players with four or more years of service time it isn't good for them either. Eventually the big market teams won't need any more players and the small market teams won't be able to afford players with more than a year or two of service time and nowhere to trade them to. Thus a LOT more teams declining arbitration sending a boatload of players to free agency thus saturating the market. A market that saturated isn't going to favor the players.

[mtrebs]

This is a crazy amount of money for someone with a half season of MLB experience.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/rays-rumors-wander-franco-extension-offer-record-150-200-million.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

I'd rather roll the dice on 10/150 or 10/200 for Wander after 70 G | 308 PAs than 14/340 for Tatis after 143 G | 629 PAs.

 

Gotta be hard to turn down that kind of money, but If I were Franco I'd probably wait until the CBA gets sorted out before agreeing to anything.

 

Yeah, I agree. I forgot about that Tatis contract and how soon he was given it.

[nate82]

IF they boost prearby/arby eligible players salaries there will have to be some sort of boost to revenue sharing. There is no way either players or small market teams will settle for one without the other. For small market teams the reason is obvious but if there are essentially ten teams that can afford players with four or more years of service time it isn't good for them either. Eventually the big market teams won't need any more players and the small market teams won't be able to afford players with more than a year or two of service time and nowhere to trade them to. Thus a LOT more teams declining arbitration sending a boatload of players to free agency thus saturating the market. A market that saturated isn't going to favor the players.

 

There probably is more revenue sharing coming but MLB hasn't put out any financial information at this time and probably never will. Right now the small market teams have agreed to this proposal as MLB has sent it over to the union. The same with the $100m minimum team salary proposal also this has been approved by the small market teams. Both have or are in the process of being rejected by the union. The information that has been leaked to the public is basically the same information that has been sent over to the players union. There is definitely going to be an increase in the cost for prearbitration and arbitration players how much of an increase is unknown but knowing the players union it is probably going to be more than what prearbitration players are paid now.

 

This CBA is going to be messy especially for a team like the Brewers who are in the middle of competing and also in the middle of their younger players getting expensive. I don't believe the Brewers are going to be major players in FA this year until the CBA is figured out and they may not even be major players at all once the CBA is known due to the raises to the prearbitration and arbitration players. Without adding someone in FA the Brewers opening day payroll could be closer to $130m due to the changes in the CBA or it could go higher players like Suter and others would definitely be dropped as their value wouldn't be high enough to pay them the salary they would get in arbitration. The Brewers may not be able to play in FA at all over the next 3-5 years if what has been proposed actually goes through even with increased revenue sharing.

[wntrtxn21]

This is a crazy amount of money for someone with a half season of MLB experience.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/rays-rumors-wander-franco-extension-offer-record-150-200-million.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

I'd rather roll the dice on 10/150 or 10/200 for Wander after 70 G | 308 PAs than 14/340 for Tatis after 143 G | 629 PAs.

 

Gotta be hard to turn down that kind of money, but If I were Franco I'd probably wait until the CBA gets sorted out before agreeing to anything.

 

The CBA is probably the reason the Rays are doing this also. Pre arb and arbitration players are going to become more expensive. I think the days of paying a 1st year MLB $250k are now gone. Probably going to cost $1m or more.

 

Then when arbitration hits you could see FA $'s for these players in their first year of arbitration. Current MLB proposal is to have players paid based on their WAR numbers which could be an average of their last 4 years or anything in-between.

 

I think if you average Burnes WAR he would get something like $18m in his first year of arbitration.

 

So the Rays offering this they could actually be saving money especially for those arbitration years. But this all depends on the next CBA and how younger players are going to be paid. This will also probably be a reason why some smaller market teams will shy away from FA until the new CBA is signed.

 

For example the Brewers maybe in trouble financially if the new CBA raises the amount Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Hader and others could get in arbitration. If their salaries effectively double don't expect the Brewers to sign anyone in FA beyond roster fillers.

 

I believe you are way over estimating arby costs. Owners can't let expenses get that high that quickly. Baseball would morph into a 10 team organization. Players wouldn't want that either because so many jobs would be lost.

[wntrtxn21]

This is a crazy amount of money for someone with a half season of MLB experience.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/rays-rumors-wander-franco-extension-offer-record-150-200-million.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

I'd rather roll the dice on 10/150 or 10/200 for Wander after 70 G | 308 PAs than 14/340 for Tatis after 143 G | 629 PAs.

 

Gotta be hard to turn down that kind of money, but If I were Franco I'd probably wait until the CBA gets sorted out before agreeing to anything.

 

The CBA is probably the reason the Rays are doing this also. Pre arb and arbitration players are going to become more expensive. I think the days of paying a 1st year MLB $250k are now gone. Probably going to cost $1m or more.

 

Then when arbitration hits you could see FA $'s for these players in their first year of arbitration. Current MLB proposal is to have players paid based on their WAR numbers which could be an average of their last 4 years or anything in-between.

 

I think if you average Burnes WAR he would get something like $18m in his first year of arbitration.

 

So the Rays offering this they could actually be saving money especially for those arbitration years. But this all depends on the next CBA and how younger players are going to be paid. This will also probably be a reason why some smaller market teams will shy away from FA until the new CBA is signed.

 

For example the Brewers maybe in trouble financially if the new CBA raises the amount Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Hader and others could get in arbitration. If their salaries effectively double don't expect the Brewers to sign anyone in FA beyond roster fillers.

 

I believe you are way over estimating arby costs. Owners can't let expenses get that high that quickly. Baseball would morph into a 10 team organization. Players wouldn't want that either because so many jobs would be lost.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think the days of paying a 1st year MLB $250k are now gone. Probably going to cost $1m or more.

 

A bit of a derail, but the major league minimum salary is already $570K and the average is >$4M. An average roster is thus well over $100M (since there are 26 actives plus often a few hefty salaries on the IL). The minimum being $200K is almost literally 20 years ago. I think it's important to remember this as we all tend to fix our sense of how much things cost at some point in our life and then stop adjusting. It might seem like $10M is big money but that puts a guy in the top _120_ annual salaries.

[Eye Black]

LHP Steven Matz signing with the Cardinals for 4 years and $44 million seems like a sneaky good deal for them. Matz seemed to turn a corner last year after leaving Queens.

[stoutdude04]

I think this is a great deal for the Cards. Solid mid rotation guy for 11 a year. Matzo complimented his pitching coach last year for making a few adjustments.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Cardinals are run well. And that makes me mad. Hoping that the managerial change brings them down a peg or two in 2022.

[Eye Black]

From Mets owner Steve Cohen:

 

I’m not happy this morning . I’ve never seen such unprofessional behavior exhibited by a player’s agent.I guess words and promises don’t matter.

 

 

From Jon Heyman:

 

Mets are upset about the Matz situation and his last minute call to Cardinals. They had the impression he was going to come back to them for a final chance. Sources say Mets would have gone to that level ($44M, 4 years)

 

 

Steven Matz is represented by Icon Sports Management. Also, add this to the pile of reasons a lot of sensible front office folks wouldn’t want to work for Steve Cohen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

From Mets owner Steve Cohen:

 

I’m not happy this morning . I’ve never seen such unprofessional behavior exhibited by a player’s agent.I guess words and promises don’t matter.

 

 

From Jon Heyman:

 

Mets are upset about the Matz situation and his last minute call to Cardinals. They had the impression he was going to come back to them for a final chance. Sources say Mets would have gone to that level ($44M, 4 years)

 

 

Steven Matz is represented by Icon Sports Management. Also, add this to the pile of reasons a lot of sensible front office folks wouldn’t want to work for Steve Cohen.

 

Exactly! That's why I continue to scoff at those who believe that it's a foregone conclusion that David Stearns ends up with the Mets. What high-end front office person would want to touch that situation with a 10-foot pole?

[Jopal78]

The Cardinals are run well. And that makes me mad. Hoping that the managerial change brings them down a peg or two in 2022.

 

But is the Cardinals signing of Steven Matz really a good thing for them,?

 

For what it is worth, when the Brewers signed Matt Garza to a 4 year/50 million dollar deal he was younger, had more experience in the major leagues than Matz and maintained a superior FIP, WHIP, ERA+ with fewer Hits and Homers allowed per/9. Garza average 6+ innings per start up to that point in his career (Matz averages 5+).

 

As we all remember, Garza had one nice year for Milwaukee and was a total bust thereafter with injuries, and ineffectiveness. Its not a sure thing Matz will follow the Garza career trajectory but Steven Matz will turn 31 next summer and has already missed time with multiple throwing shoulder and elbow injuries, and the aforementioned tendency to complete 5+ innings per start. Those are some pretty legitimate red flags for a pitcher who just got a four year deal that will take him through age 35.

 

The Cardinals already have 110+ million committed in 2022 to just 7 players and have never gone above 165 million in payroll. This is a team with a stretched budget gambling on cheap starting pitching to fill their rotation holes. It is also illustrative of the extreme cost of free agent starting pitching where a 4/5 starters in their 30s like Matz (Adrian Houser has marginally better career numbers) now are getting multi-year deals for an AAV of 11 million per.

[jerichoholicninja]

From the Cards perspective, I wouldn't put the Matz signing in terms of "bad" but I don't think there's really anything that good about it. Certainly seems like the Cards could have found better uses for $11M.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, doesn't seem like anything great to me. Paying $11M for an average starter is fine. But there's obviously a lot of risk involved.

 

I find it far more likely that that contract turns out badly.