Packer 2021 Team Discussion 2.0

[LouisEly]

I also think they got too cute with Bahk. They thought they could get by without him and wanted to protect him for the next round, when the reality is that he should have been out there tonight if possible at all.

 

They got burned by Billy Turner in the playoffs last year and inexplicably went back to the well again.

 

From the moment I heard Turner announced as the starting LG I no longer felt good. Just a terribly coached game by MLF.

Except that Turner wasn't the problem (and he was the LT, not the LG). Bosa had two sacks and two QB hits - he was LDE and lined up across from Kelly. Armstead had two sacks and two QB hits - he's the LDT and lined up across from Patrick. Ebukam was lined up across from Turner and he had one sack and one QB hit, but Bosa and Armstead were the much bigger problems.

[LouisEly]

So this is what it was like to be an Atlanta Braves fan in the 90's and 2000's. Best starting pitching in baseball, but only one championship to show for it.

[GAME05]

Is it crazy to think Bakhtiari may not be back, either? I don't know if his contract allows for that or not, though.

[LouisEly]

Is it crazy to think Bakhtiari may not be back, either? I don't know if his contract allows for that or not, though.

Yes, it is crazy. They'll incur $39M in dead cap space if they release him. Best case scenario is they trade him after 6/1 in which they will incur $8.8M in dead cap in 2022 and $17.5M in dead cap in 2023, but that requires a trade partner and I don't know if anyone is going to take on his contract coming off of an injury and not being able to play in this playoff game.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I also think they got too cute with Bahk. They thought they could get by without him and wanted to protect him for the next round, when the reality is that he should have been out there tonight if possible at all.

 

They got burned by Billy Turner in the playoffs last year and inexplicably went back to the well again.

 

From the moment I heard Turner announced as the starting LG I no longer felt good. Just a terribly coached game by MLF.

Except that Turner wasn't the problem (and he was the LT, not the LG). Bosa had two sacks and two QB hits - he was LDE and lined up across from Kelly. Armstead had two sacks and two QB hits - he's the LDT and lined up across from Patrick. Ebukam was lined up across from Turner and he had one sack and one QB hit, but Bosa and Armstead were the much bigger problems.

 

Exactly. Turner was decent at LT last night. I honestly think the better idea would have been to start Yosh at LT and Turner at RT. Kelly had some nice blocks last night, but he was beaten and ragdolled plenty too.

[homer]

I also think they got too cute with Bahk. They thought they could get by without him and wanted to protect him for the next round, when the reality is that he should have been out there tonight if possible at all.

 

They got burned by Billy Turner in the playoffs last year and inexplicably went back to the well again.

 

From the moment I heard Turner announced as the starting LG I no longer felt good. Just a terribly coached game by MLF.

Except that Turner wasn't the problem (and he was the LT, not the LG). Bosa had two sacks and two QB hits - he was LDE and lined up across from Kelly. Armstead had two sacks and two QB hits - he's the LDT and lined up across from Patrick. Ebukam was lined up across from Turner and he had one sack and one QB hit, but Bosa and Armstead were the much bigger problems.

 

Exactly. Turner was decent at LT last night. I honestly think the better idea would have been to start Yosh at LT and Turner at RT. Kelly had some nice blocks last night, but he was beaten and ragdolled plenty too.

 

Did they address in the post game why they chose that O Line configuration? I would hope someone would ask about that at some point.

[adambr2]

Is it crazy to think Bakhtiari may not be back, either? I don't know if his contract allows for that or not, though.

Yes, it is crazy. They'll incur $39M in dead cap space if they release him. Best case scenario is they trade him after 6/1 in which they will incur $8.8M in dead cap in 2022 and $17.5M in dead cap in 2023, but that requires a trade partner and I don't know if anyone is going to take on his contract coming off of an injury and not being able to play in this playoff game.

 

Why not just bite the bullet on all the dead money next season, fill out the roster on the cheap and start with a clean slate in '23?

 

I know this isn't generally done, but why not? The Packers are now officially in salary cap hell. I don't think they could keep Rodgers and Adams even if they wanted to. They've been kicking the can down the road as long as they could, understandably. At some point they have to pay the piper, and that time may as well be now. They're not competing in '22 with Love starting and no Adams.

 

Give Love a full year of development as the starter with basically no expectations as far as wins and losses. Then if he shows promise, they can start to spend a bit in '23 again, while using their likely early draft capital in '23 in addition to whatever they get from a Rodgers trade to start building a good young team around Love.

 

We'll find out in very short order how good MLF and Gute really are.

[homer]

I don't think trading Bakhtiari at current value is wise. For one, he hasn't shown he's come back from the ACL and his cap number is big. Might as well keep him around another season at least.

[PinaMadness]

Is it crazy to think Bakhtiari may not be back, either? I don't know if his contract allows for that or not, though.

Yes, it is crazy. They'll incur $39M in dead cap space if they release him. Best case scenario is they trade him after 6/1 in which they will incur $8.8M in dead cap in 2022 and $17.5M in dead cap in 2023, but that requires a trade partner and I don't know if anyone is going to take on his contract coming off of an injury and not being able to play in this playoff game.

 

Why not just bite the bullet on all the dead money next season, fill out the roster on the cheap and start with a clean slate in '23?

 

I know this isn't generally done, but why not? The Packers are now officially in salary cap hell. I don't think they could keep Rodgers and Adams even if they wanted to. They've been kicking the can down the road as long as they could, understandably. At some point they have to pay the piper, and that time may as well be now. They're not competing in '22 with Love starting and no Adams.

 

Give Love a full year of development as the starter with basically no expectations as far as wins and losses. Then if he shows promise, they can start to spend a bit in '23 again, while using their likely early draft capital in '23 in addition to whatever they get from a Rodgers trade to start building a good young team around Love.

 

We'll find out in very short order how good MLF and Gute really are.

 

That's what I think too. To me it doesn't make sense to take massive cap hits for multiple years. Just rip the band aid off and get it over with. So what if we have a losing record for one year? It will be nice to finally have a high draft pick that can be used for the rebuild.

Edited January 23, 2022 by PinaMadness

[adambr2]

I know they're not going to eat $39M in dead cap with Bahk. I just don't see the point of incurring massive cap hits of $26M+ and $30M+ in '23 and '24 in a rebuild to a 30 some year old tackle with a bum knee. I'd rather just eat it all now and be done with it.

 

Bahk made a lot more sense here when we thought we had a few years left with Rodgers and Adams and now his presence just seems pointlessly expensive.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's honestly going to be such an enormous relief as a fan to go into a season without the expectation that it's a failure if you don't win the Super Bowl. Totally ready for that if that's what is happening.

[PinaMadness]

It's 12 hours later and my mind is still in a frenzy. I'm just not in a state of mind to express my feelings right now. I definitely have strong opinions. Some I have had for years. But right now I'm not in a state of mind to express them rationally. Let me just say that how this season ended is a full on organizational failure. From Mark Murphy, to Brain Gutekunst and Ted Thompson, to MLF, to Aaron Rodgers, to the rest of the roster, down to the ticket takers.

 

(OK the ticket takers is hyperbole. I'm just saying nobody is blameless in this.)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It's honestly going to be such an enormous relief as a fan to go into a season without the expectation that it's a failure if you don't win the Super Bowl. Totally ready for that if that's what is happening.

 

Me too. Jordan Love may never be anything more than a middling NFL QB. But it's time to find that out.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think that's fair. To put your team in cap hell, be full on "super bowl or bust" mode, and not address the elephant in the room (special teams) at all, knowing all season long it was a huge, glaring, obvious problem, is exactly that. An organizational failure. Last night, it quite literally cost them the game. Is that on Gute? Lafleur? Both? Whatever. It's done and over with, but the organization needs to take a long look at their team building and hiring philosophy and decide where they go from here. It's not going to be pretty.

[PinaMadness]

Here's a great read about the special teams.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/latest-special-teams-disaster-ends-packers-season

 

It's not like those blocks were just a defender getting a finger on the ball, affecting the trajectory. Both were full on thuds.

[HarveysWBs]

I know everybody has their postmortem opinions and one more largely uninformed bloviation is probably unnecessary and decadent at this point, but “decadent” probably sums up the last 20 years of Packers football, and I’ve got nowhere else to go with this so here’s mine.

 

I don’t have anything new or profound to add about l’affaire de Rodgers. I’m just…tired. He’s exhausting to have in your life, and being a fan of the team he is on is about as obliquely as he can even be said to be in my life. I live in Bear country; most my friends and in-laws are either Bear or Vikings fans, and as much fun as it’s been to beat those guys in the regular season, it’s been equally taxing to have to defend playoff choke jobs and his general chicanery. I’m done making predictions, because I’ve been wrong an awful lot, but it’s hard to imagine Rodgers and the franchise just trying to run it back a third time. It feels like the end.

 

But whether it happens now or in a few years, some wilderness time is coming at 1265 Lombardi. As a fan, I find it refreshing, as right now I feel overheated. Having sky high expectations for my team nearly every year since I can even remember watching football (I was just starting elementary school when the Favre years began) has been awesome, and I have no illusions about how much I’ve been spoiled or what awaits with anyone less than a hall of gamer under center. But all summer and no winter leads to ossification and decay. The organization is undeniably competent, especially compared to the dumpster fires that govern seemingly half of the franchises in the NFL. But they have the feel of a group that needs a revitalization.

 

And that brings me to the two most important men in that effort. Gutekunst came into this year taking the most heat of anyone in this organization, but I think has actually acquitted himself the best. His acquisitions have been rightfully lauded, as without them there is no way this team finishes with the #1 seed (and as hollow as that victory feels this morning, it is still a victory). As far as I can tell, coaching decisions are entirely out of his hands under this structure, so he bears no real responsibility for the horrific inability to find competent leadership on special teams, but finding a way to keep special teams stalwarts at the bottom of the roster without sacrificing the performance in the other two phases has to be a major priority.

 

It isn’t THE priority for him, though. His tenure here is going to be defined by rebuilding the QB room and ushering in the new era of team history. It’s still a hair too early to judge the Love selection, but only by a hair. Without immediate improvement from him, that’s going to be a major strike against Gute. But busts happen and it need not sink the team long-term. It will require some humility, however, in recognizing a mistake and creativity and vision to identify talent that complements the type of offense we’re trying to have.

 

Speaking of a vision on offense, that brings me to LaFleur. The kind of regular season success he has had, and the numbers his squads have put up are legit, but three straight years have ended with some questionable offensive game planning and execution. Needless to say, ignominious exits like that are not what you should get from an offensive-minded head coach, much less one lauded as a brilliant one. So I think the next two or three years are more important for LaFleur than anyone else in the building. In theory, his offense should be able to make things work with less than outstanding QB talent (see the competitiveness of the Rams and 49ers for all the evidence one needs on that front), but the offense hasn’t looked anywhere close to NFL ready with anyone other than 12 under center. I take comfort that Andy Reid needed a crazy long time to find postseason success, but my more pessimistic side thinks he may just turn into a Marty Schottenheimer type. Only time will tell.

 

In sum, the length of this transition (whenever it comes—though I expect it now, an unlikely return of Rodgers only delays the inevitable with less hope for a title than the last two years held) all comes down to Gute and MLF. They need to have a plan, be on the same page, and execute it this off-season. Otherwise, an obligatory single year of pain could spiral into many. Failure is an invitation to reinvent, and it could be just what the franchise needs. But there’s no guarantee this thing gets righted again this decade if the two-member brain trust gets this thing wrong over the next several months. However it goes, it’ll be different. And I don’t mind the sound of different—different could be good.

[HarveysWBs]

It's honestly going to be such an enormous relief as a fan to go into a season without the expectation that it's a failure if you don't win the Super Bowl. Totally ready for that if that's what is happening.

+1. I should have just read your post before launching into my stemwinder. You’ve captured my feelings precisely.

[LouisEly]

Why not just bite the bullet on all the dead money next season, fill out the roster on the cheap and start with a clean slate in '23?

They probably couldn't. They're already $44M over the cap in '22; Bakhtiari's contract calls for a $22.8M cap hit in '22; cutting him would put them $60M over the cap plus they'll need almost $10M to sign their draft picks. With pulling forward all of the prorated signing bonuses they might not be able to cut $70M. And if the team is terrible, no free agent is going to want to come here so having cap space is useless.

 

That, and the best way for Love to develop is to give him time in the pocket with a good LT. They said best case would be a year for Bakh to return and it's been a year. Give him another 8 months to rehab and see where he's at.

[nate82]

As a non Packers fan the Packers do have some options if they are going to be trading Rodgers. The best fit picks wise would be the Giants but they don't really have the cap room to add Rodgers. I think that eliminates the Giants as a possibility so that crosses off their two first round picks in the upcoming draft. The next best options are the Steelers, Dolphins, Raiders, Colts, Broncos and Texans. Rodgers is going to want to play for a team that will be competing right away so I think you can eliminate the Texans from this list and probably the Dolphins also as I am not sure that Rodgers would accept a trade to the Dolphins. That leaves the Steelers, Raiders, Broncos and Colts for Rodgers to pick from and yes Rodgers holds all the cards here as he can just say screw you Packers and just sit or play the next season out if he wanted to. The Packers would basically lose Adams for nothing in this scenario as they wouldn't be able to resign or franchise him. So Rodgers holds all the cards and will be able to dictate where he is traded within reason. Cap wise if Rodgers wants to bring Adams with him or if Adams wants to follow Rodgers the Broncos and Colts make the most sense here.

 

From the group I mentioned the team with the most cap room are the Broncos (~$45m) and Colts (~$43m). The Broncos are the team that makes the most sense here for a trade for Rodgers. I think the Packers will get one first round pick for Rodgers and a bunch of other picks, I just don't see multiple first round picks coming back to the Packers but maybe Denver is desperate and they throw multiple first's for Rodgers. As for the trade I think the Broncos stay calm and offer the Packers their 2022 1st round pick (9), 2022 3rd round pick (75), 2022 3rd round pick (91), 2023 2nd round pick and 2023 3rd round pick. I believe this would be the Packers best offer that they will receive for Rodgers and they will either have to accept something like this or restructure Rodgers contract so they are able to franchise Adams but that is a lot of cap gymnastics that will have to happen. The amount of restructuring and releasing of players will absolutely gut the Packers defense which means that is where they will have to focus on in the draft if they decide to keep Rodgers and Adams.

 

From the outside looking in the best move for the Packers would be for Rodgers to retire or to trade Rodgers. I just don't see a scenario where it makes sense for the Packers to keep Rodgers. Packers best outcome would be the Broncos getting desperate and wanting that QB and offering multiple 1st round picks to the Packers and maybe they do that but I think what I put down for a trade will be closer to what will happen than multiple 1st round picks. I don't believe the Packers will get more than 2 1st round picks for Rodgers, they may get an additional 1st round pick and others for Adams but I am not sure on that either. Assuming the Packers trade Rodgers they have more control over where Adams goes than where Rodgers goes.

 

Even with a Rodgers trade and no Adams I think the Packers still have to make some cuts to get under the salary cap which means Z.Smith, P.Smith and Amos are more than likely gone if you also want to cut Bakhtiari. This would put the Packers at about 0 cap space so that means no franchise for Adams as his cap hit should come around $18m. If you really wanted Bakhtiari released then Turner, Cobb and Lowry would all need to be released. That would then get you to be able to franchise Adams and then trade him to another team. The Packers would look more like the Lions and the rebuild wouldn't just be 1 or 2 years you are looking at a 3 year rebuild at a minimum. If the Packers are extremely lucky and draft well then yeah that is a 2 year rebuild. I think some of these players are going to be cut anyways (Cobb, P.Smith, Z.Smith, Clark and Amos) as it makes more sense to release them and take the dead cap hit than it is to keep them and take the cap hit. If you are doing that and keeping Rodgers I don't think it makes any sense at all as the team overall is going to be worse with the departure of those players. Cobb, P.Smith, Z.Smith, Clark and Amos would free up about $40m in cap space for the Packers. There could also be some restructures but if you are trading Rodgers it is probably just best to reset and try and get under the cap now and not have to worry about future years cap issues with the restructures as Gary looks like he is going to be expensive to keep and obviously Alexander will need an extension also.

 

Maybe I am wrong but looking from the outside it looks like the Packers should be retooling and moving on from Rodgers kind of like what the Patriots and Colts did with Brady and Manning.

[adambr2]

I realize the "Why can't Wisconsin sports fans have nice things" thread was rightfully locked when the Bucks won the NBA title, but the Packers are basically in a league of their own when it comes to this category. I mean these guys have made ripping the hearts of their fans right out of their chests and repeatedly stomping on them into an annual tradition.

[PeaveyFury]

I actually think the team that makes the MOST sense might be Philly, in part because of their 3 middle-round 1sts this year. In addition, they do appear to be missing a QB- that game against TB showed a team that is on the verge of being something with a competent QB, especially in that dumpster-fire division.

 

They've got cap room but far less than a team like Indy or Denver, but they'd be my personal favorite to see if we can pry a couple of those 2022 firsts out of them...

[adambr2]

Packers 2022 Opening day starting QB:

 

60% Jordan Love, 10% Aaron Rodgers, 30% someone else. Those would be my current percentage chances.

[GAME05]

Trubisky and Foles in GB next year would be hilarious.

[LouisEly]

Trubisky and Foles in GB next year would be hilarious.

And watching them take the Packers to the playoffs would be even more hilarious.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Trubisky and Foles in GB next year would be hilarious.

And watching them take the Packers to the playoffs would be even more hilarious.

 

Given the cap situation next year, I think that's pretty optimistic.

 

I think I'll just say I want no part of Mitch Trubisky in Green Bay, and leave it at that.

 

I'd rather rebuild with Jordan Love, win 3-4 - 5 games, get the cap situation cleared up and go into 23 with a fresh(er) start and a high draft pick.