Packer 2021 Team Discussion 2.0

[CheezWizHed]

Thank you for agreeing with both my friend and me that a good QB elevates the WRs he plays with. I never said anything different. BTW, Jones wasn't really anything more than a good #3 or weak #2 WR. And that only lasted a couple of years.

 

Cousins is more than a mediocre QB though. He isn't in the top 5, but easily in the top 10 QBs in the league, at least right now. Jefferson is a special talent...on par with Adams. But I think Theilen is more good than great WR. Maybe a Cobb comparison?

 

I'll admit that I've always been a fan of Cousins; back to Mi State. I feared him coming to the Vikings as he was a clear upgrade for them. But for whatever reason, he just can't seem to put it together (thankfully as a Viking QB) when the game is on the line. Certainly doesn't have the killer instinct that Brady or Rodgers have at the end of games.

[PinaMadness]

Adams likely to get franchise tag.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/davante-adams-packers-wr-franchise-tag-aaron-rodgers

[OldHeidelberg]

Adams likely to get franchise tag.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/davante-adams-packers-wr-franchise-tag-aaron-rodgers

 

I think that was pretty much a given barring an extension. It will probably be a tag and trade if Rodgers leaves but no way they let a player of that caliber leave for a comp pick so they can keep the Smiths and Lowry, etc. I do wonder though if the Bakh situation has them gun shy about an extension with Adams, the last 2 non Rodgers 3rd contract they gave out were Jordy and Bak, both who promptly blew out their knees.

[PeaveyFury]

I think that's complete posturing for negotiation sake. I agree with the concept that they won't let him walk for nothing, but they'd have to do some major cap gymnastics to be enough below the cap at the start of the 2022 league year to offer the tag.

[nodakfan17]

Cutting Za’Darius gets them halfway there … and then it gets difficult. A Rodgers extension / trade / retirement is almost necessary to get under the cap.

[OldHeidelberg]

I think that's complete posturing for negotiation sake. I agree with the concept that they won't let him walk for nothing, but they'd have to do some major cap gymnastics to be enough below the cap at the start of the 2022 league year to offer the tag.

 

Rodgers is the elephant in the room regarding next years cap #, no way they go forward with his 46 million cap hit, it was designed that way.

 

I think I read the cap is expected to go up pretty rapidly again after next season as well so cap space may be moved around pretty freely around the NFL this offseason.

[PeaveyFury]

Cutting Za’Darius gets them halfway there …

 

They're about $40 million over right now, and would need about $20 million more to franchise Adams. Cutting Z gets them only about 25% of the way there, actually.

 

I think I read the cap is expected to go up pretty rapidly again after next season

 

To be fair, though, that's what people said about last offseason too, and it proved to be incorrect.

[OldHeidelberg]

To be fair, though, that's what people said about last offseason too, and it proved to be incorrect.

 

I thought next seasons potential increase was limited because they need to offset the cap# they allowed this season after last years losses. I think the COVID year probably is out of the equation after that so probably more predictable. Either way at this point not even worth doing the math until we find out what Rodgers wants to do.

[CheezWizHed]

Preston Smith also has a team cap of $18M or something like that after his restructure. More likely Z Smith stays than P Smith.

 

Assuming Bakh returns to health, I'd wonder if Turner might be a candidate to cut with Nijman taking the RT spot.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2022 cap gymnastics is all entirely dependent on what happens with Rodgers - if he wants to stick around he will need to do so under a new contract that makes his 2022 cap number much smaller than what his current contract would be. After that, there will be plenty of other obvious cuts and restructures to make it work.

[SeaBass]

Quote me whatever seemingly alarming cap numbers you want I believe there is a zero percent chance the Packers fail to franchise tag Adams if that's how things play out.

[SomewhereInTime]

I was pretty worried about this year after the offseason QB drama, a poor pre-season, and poor effort in week 1. Figured if things continued down that path the Jordan Love era would have started midseason. Instead many players have stepped up, several newcomers have had phenomenal seasons, and the QB is having one of his best seasons. It's been a fun year.

[Outlander]

Quote me whatever seemingly alarming cap numbers you want I believe there is a zero percent chance the Packers fail to franchise tag Adams if that's how things play out.

Yep, slightly above zero though in case of major injury in the playoffs.

[jjgott]

So does Love get the start next week? Give Rodgers two weeks to rest the toe?

[adambr2]

I just can't see any way Adams gets tagged. I'm in the group that thinks it's posturing. I don't know if there's a true appreciation for the amount of cap gymnastics it would take to get far enough under the cap to do that. It's going to take cap gymnastics just to break even.

 

I won't say impossible, but ...I can't see how.

 

The elephant in the room that no one will talk about because he's a good dude and it's not his fault is how much the Bahktiari extension has hurt us. We're going on two years of lighting that money on fire for no return on our investment when all along the Packers have found a way to make the line work without him. We're a better team with a healthy Bahk, clearly....but that deal has hurt and definitely affects these offseasons.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Bakhtiari contract is even worse moving forward because it had already been restructured to limit his cap hit for 2021 - he's a $22M cap hit for 2022 but is structured as a dead cap hit of ~$40M, which means he's not a candidate for an obvious restructure anymore. If he's healthy and on the field performing at an elite level, ok - otherwise it's a disaster.

 

If Rodgers wants to force his way out after this year, even without any restructuring on the front end GB saves $20M in cap space by trading him away, then cutting his buddy Cobb trims about $7M and even just picking one of the Smiths to cut shaves off another ~$12M - that brings their cap situation into a much more tenable spot around $195M to franchise Adams....but that may be an initial strategy to warrant ultimately working out a trade for him, too if they can't work out an extension.

 

The other more preferable option at this point would be for Rodgers to stick around with the intent of retiring a Packer, and signing a contract extension that takes his 2022 cap hit from $46M down to something much more manageable and resolves nearly all their cap issues with just that move.

[PeaveyFury]

If Rodgers wants to force his way out after this year, even without any restructuring on the front end GB saves $20M in cap space by trading him away, then cutting his buddy Cobb trims about $7M and even just picking one of the Smiths to cut shaves off another ~$12M - that brings their cap situation into a much more tenable spot around $195M to franchise Adams....but that may be an initial strategy to warrant ultimately working out a trade for him, too if they can't work out an extension.

 

All of these moves still put you about $20 million short, FWIW.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Rodgers wants to force his way out after this year, even without any restructuring on the front end GB saves $20M in cap space by trading him away, then cutting his buddy Cobb trims about $7M and even just picking one of the Smiths to cut shaves off another ~$12M - that brings their cap situation into a much more tenable spot around $195M to franchise Adams....but that may be an initial strategy to warrant ultimately working out a trade for him, too if they can't work out an extension.

 

All of these moves still put you about $20 million short, FWIW.

 

And if the first move, trading Rodgers, happens - it doesn't even matter because that also probably means both Smiths are cut, Amos is cut, and eventually Adams is franchised and traded. That then opens up plenty of room to extend Alexander and turns 2022 entirely into a retooling season. Restructuring Rodgers' contract if he sticks around would be job #1 to get the cap into a tenable place to try and resign Adams. There will be tough personnel decisions made to get Green Bay in a friendlier cap spot no matter what, but it all hinges on what happens with Rodgers. There is zero chance he stays in Green Bay for 2022 and plays under a $46M cap hit, which is currently on their hypothetical 2022 books.

 

As we saw what happened last offseason across the NFL when basically 2/3 of the league found ways to get their rosters under the cap without having to release tons of quality players, there's always a way to make it work.

[PeaveyFury]

As we saw what happened last offseason across the NFL when basically 2/3 of the league found ways to get their rosters under the cap without having to release tons of quality players, there's always a way to make it work.

 

How many of those teams were 40+ million over the cap without one of their best players under contract and is insistent on being the highest paid WR in the league?

 

In short, the Packers put all of their cap-cards on the table last offseason to make one final run. With the salary cap, eventually there's a year where you can't kick the can any further down the road. The Packers are there, just like they were following 2005.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Again, they are $40+M over the cap almost entirely because their star quarterback was in the midst of having some sort of principle spat with the front office headed into this season and now has a theoretical cap hit of almost $50M dollars for 2022 because of his current contract - which both parties know isn't a contract he will be playing under in 2022 either in Green Bay or at whatever team trades for him should things go that way. If Rodgers stays in Green Bay, his new deal probably finds a way to shave off $30M in 2022 cap savings and then Gute goes back to the restructuring well another time along with making a few necessary cuts before dealing with the Adams situation - if that all happens and Adams is insistent on being paid close to $30M a season in a deal that the Packers can't sign, then they tag him and send him to a team that does have that kind of cap space like Miami or San Diego. To me, it's either both Rodgers and Adams are in Green Bay longterm in 2022, or both are gone.

 

Of course there comes a time when can-kicking can't happen any longer, and some players will be cut or traded to make it work. But their cap situation isn't impossible, and I'm not sure why people are overly concerned about what posturing from Adams' camp or the Packer front office means for things longterm at this point the morning after they locked up the top seed in the NFC playoffs for the 2021 season.

[homer]

re: this season

 

Which NFC teams seem like the best bets to beat GB in Lambeau?

[PeaveyFury]

But their cap situation isn't impossible, and I'm not sure why people are overly concerned about what posturing from Adams' camp or the Packer front office means for things longterm at this point the morning after they locked up the top seed in the NFC playoffs for the 2021 season.

 

It's being discussed now because the blurb was released by whomever did so yesterday, at the same time said seed was locked up. If it had been released later this week, it would have been discussed then and we'd only be discussing last night's game. But it wasn't released later, so we're discussing both.

[Fear The Chorizo]

re: this season

 

Which NFC teams seem like the best bets to beat GB in Lambeau?

 

I think you'd have to put Tampa at the top of the list just because they did it last year - however I think they may have their hands full in the 1st round if seeding stays consistent and they play the 49ers, and they aren't peaking headed into the postseason.

 

San Francisco could win a cold weather game, especially if conditions neutralize GB's passing game advantage. Dallas would be a tough game with their defense, too.

 

Honestly, this year's playoffs are a total crapshoot and it's tough to predict how matchups play out, because any of the teams seeded #2-7 in the NFC can win their 1st round games. Having the bye is so huge to get as healthy as possible but also to avoid having to win 3 games just to reach the Super Bowl.

[PeaveyFury]

re: this season

 

Which NFC teams seem like the best bets to beat GB in Lambeau?

 

I think you'd have to put Tampa at the top of the list just because they did it last year - however I think they may have their hands full in the 1st round if seeding stays consistent and they play the 49ers, and they aren't peaking headed into the postseason.

 

I think this is a really good point- it's usually the team peaking at the right time that you worry about, and it's really hard to argue that Tampa is playing anything close to their best football right now.

[patrickgpe]

Tampa would be that team, only because they did it last year. Dallas has a great record, but it young and just lost a must win game at home to Arizona. I think they are still a year or 2 away.

Really none of the NFC contenders played well yesterday, besides GB.