A’s Rebuild on the Horizon?

[JosephC]

If the A's want Tellez back, better yet as far as I'm concerned. He goes into the deal and the Brewers keep Carlos Rodiguez.

 

Not at all convinced by Tellez.

 

After coming to the Brewers in 2021, Tellez slashed .272/.333/.481/.814.

After Vogelbach came to the Brewers in 2020, he slashed .328/.418/.569/.987.

Career MLB slash line of Tellez is now .247/.307/.462/.770.

Vogelbach's career MLB slash line at the end of 2020 was .206/.332/.409/.741.

 

The Blue Jays were willing to give up Tellez for very little for good reason. Credit to Stearns for rolling the dice and coming up with a nice short-term fix for 1B. But like Vogelbach, there is enough history there where I wouldn't count on him being a long-term solution. Tellez is a power bat with a career .307 OBP, from .329 (2018) to .293 (2019) to .346 (2020) and was down at .272 in 150+ plate appearances when the Blue Jays traded him. He sure looks like a guy that will run hot-and-cold, and while I'd take a .307 OBP/.770 OPS guy that can play a plus centerfield or shortstop every day, a .307 OBP out of 1B is not something I'm looking for unless the guy has legitimate 40 home run power and Tellez hasn't shown that so far.

 

He's a career 0.7 bWAR/0.8 fWAR player. If the A's want him instead of Rodriguez, I'm totally OK with that.

[Eye Black]

The Blue Jays were willing to give up Tellez for very little for good reason.

I think at least part of that reason was having a perennial MVP candidate penciled in at first base for the foreseeable future.

 

I would obviously be ecstatic by a Matt Olson-type upgrade (and would include Tellez in a heartbeat), but I’m not so sure about writing off Rowdy either. He’ll turn just 27 next March, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is an above average offensive player over the next couple of seasons.

[Joseph Zarr]

The Blue Jays were willing to give up Tellez for very little for good reason.

I think at least part of that reason was having a perennial MVP candidate penciled in at first base for the foreseeable future.

 

I would obviously be ecstatic by a Matt Olson-type upgrade (and would include Tellez in a heartbeat), but I’m not so sure about writing off Rowdy either. He’ll turn just 27 next March, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is an above average offensive player over the next couple of seasons.

 

Agreed. I will say, as well, it certainly is very nice having the floor of Tellez at 1B as opposed to, say, Vogey or Hiura. It is an upgrade. Is it an upgrade that will maintain or continue to, well, upgrade? OR, was it a flash in the pan? We shall see, I guess. BUT, I value Tellez as the baseline quite a bit considering where we've been.

[brewcrewdue80]

If the A's want Tellez back, better yet as far as I'm concerned. He goes into the deal and the Brewers keep Carlos Rodiguez.

 

Not at all convinced by Tellez.

 

After coming to the Brewers in 2021, Tellez slashed .272/.333/.481/.814.

After Vogelbach came to the Brewers in 2020, he slashed .328/.418/.569/.987.

Career MLB slash line of Tellez is now .247/.307/.462/.770.

Vogelbach's career MLB slash line at the end of 2020 was .206/.332/.409/.741.

 

The Blue Jays were willing to give up Tellez for very little for good reason. Credit to Stearns for rolling the dice and coming up with a nice short-term fix for 1B. But like Vogelbach, there is enough history there where I wouldn't count on him being a long-term solution. Tellez is a power bat with a career .307 OBP, from .329 (2018) to .293 (2019) to .346 (2020) and was down at .272 in 150+ plate appearances when the Blue Jays traded him. He sure looks like a guy that will run hot-and-cold, and while I'd take a .307 OBP/.770 OPS guy that can play a plus centerfield or shortstop every day, a .307 OBP out of 1B is not something I'm looking for unless the guy has legitimate 40 home run power and Tellez hasn't shown that so far.

 

He's a career 0.7 bWAR/0.8 fWAR player. If the A's want him instead of Rodriguez, I'm totally OK with that.

 

Just being a placeholder who may do better than your post's numbers. What will Oakland do for 1b with Olson gone? Toronto had somebody that made Tellez available. For Oakland they don't have somebody. Their influence to make a trade is payroll. Sell high. A batter going through their prime for about 2mil. Or does Oakland turn to 35+yr Olds FAs who most likely bat at best the Tellez numbers you frown upon.

 

If Milw got Olson they have no reason to keep Tellez. Just seems natural the As take Tellez as part of the deal. Somebody stated Oakland is at a rebuild. You still need to put a team out there.

 

All this fuss said, I don't see it happening. Trading for Olson who's pricey and losing top prospects. Tellez fits in to the Brewers roster as it stands right now. Fairly cheap, mild projection at 1b. Think Keston Hiura is the hope to fix and continue on at 1b. Meanwhile Tellez holds 1b.

[Eye Black]

Via this Link:

 

Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports that Matt Olson "is one of several players" on the Athletics "who will likely be on the move."

 

Martino writes that "multiple league executives in touch with the A’s say that another reset is coming from the franchise." Olson -- who posted a .911 OPS and hit 39 home runs in 2021 -- would seem to be the team's biggest trade chip. The 27-year-old made $5 million this season and is under team control through 2023. Martino mentions the Yankees as a potential landing spot for Olson, and he would certainly be an excellent fit as a left-handed bat with that short porch in right field. There would be numerous suitors if Olson is indeed shopped, however.

[reillymcshane]

Reports that Oakland may slash payroll - maybe even to as low as $50M.

 

With an arby figure north of $10M, Olson is a likely candidate to move - not to mention a bunch of other guys.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/athletics-trade-rumors-payroll-olson-chapman-manaea-bassitt-montas.html

[nate82]

I think the Yankees are the favorites to land Olson right now.

[TURBO]

of course they are...

[wibadgers23]

If we were going to unload a bunch of top tier prospects, would you guys rather trade for Jose Ramirez to play 3B or Olson to play 1B? No clue if Ramirez is even on the trade block so it’s likely Olson is more “gettable.”

[Simba2020]

I think the Yankees are the favorites to land Olson right now.

If he was a free agent, I'd agree. Perfect fit. But it will come down to who offers the best package in return so I don't see how anybody can be called a favorite at this point.

[sveumrules]

If we were going to unload a bunch of top tier prospects, would you guys rather trade for Jose Ramirez to play 3B or Olson to play 1B? No clue if Ramirez is even on the trade block so it’s likely Olson is more “gettable.”

 

Ramirez (138 OPS+, 19.7 WAR since 2018) is a little better than Olson (132 OPS+, 15.3 WAR since 2018), so he will likely net a slightly better package in return.

 

I'd probably prefer Olson since he is a better fit positionally & shouldn't cost quite as much in prospect capital.

[nate82]

I think the Yankees are the favorites to land Olson right now.

If he was a free agent, I'd agree. Perfect fit. But it will come down to who offers the best package in return so I don't see how anybody can be called a favorite at this point.

 

The Yankees need a 1B and he should cost about the same as any of the FA that are currently on the market at 1B and is better than them by a considerable amount offensively.

 

It really depends on what the A's want in return for Olson. Do they want immediate help or do they want help in the future?

 

The Yankees probably could even make a deal without including Dominguez their best prospect for Olson. They could center a deal around Volpe or could even trade their latest draft pick in Sweeney. Even something centered around Luis Medina and Oswaldo Cabrera would probably be a good start for a deal for Olson. There is a huge fit for the Yankees to go out and get someone like Olson and not have to break the bank in free agency.

 

The Yankees need some more starting pitching behind Cole and there are a few veteran pitchers they could get this off season who could help and bolster their starting rotation in free agency who won't absolutely break the bank.

[MadThinker88]

If we were going to unload a bunch of top tier prospects, would you guys rather trade for Jose Ramirez to play 3B or Olson to play 1B? No clue if Ramirez is even on the trade block so it’s likely Olson is more “gettable.”

 

Ramirez (138 OPS+, 19.7 WAR since 2018) is a little better than Olson (132 OPS+, 15.3 WAR since 2018), so he will likely net a slightly better package in return.

 

I'd probably prefer Olson since he is a better fit positionally & shouldn't cost quite as much in prospect capital.

 

CLE is talking about ADDING to its payroll number this off-season. In contrast: Oakland is looking to slash payroll.

 

Both JRam & Olson would cost a bunch in trade capital, but considering the mindset of the clubs, Oakland (looking to reduce payroll) is more likely to deal Olson then CLE dealing JRam..

[wntrtxn21]

I think the Yankees are the favorites to land Olson right now.

If he was a free agent, I'd agree. Perfect fit. But it will come down to who offers the best package in return so I don't see how anybody can be called a favorite at this point.

 

The Yankees need a 1B and he should cost about the same as any of the FA that are currently on the market at 1B and is better than them by a considerable amount offensively.

 

It really depends on what the A's want in return for Olson. Do they want immediate help or do they want help in the future?

 

The Yankees probably could even make a deal without including Dominguez their best prospect for Olson. They could center a deal around Volpe or could even trade their latest draft pick in Sweeney. Even something centered around Luis Medina and Oswaldo Cabrera would probably be a good start for a deal for Olson. There is a huge fit for the Yankees to go out and get someone like Olson and not have to break the bank in free agency.

 

The Yankees need some more starting pitching behind Cole and there are a few veteran pitchers they could get this off season who could help and bolster their starting rotation in free agency who won't absolutely break the bank.

 

The A's past history says they will be looking for young MLB ready talent or guys who could help mid season. They'll take lower level guys as fillers, but usually not as primary players.

[SRB]

Maybe front offices are not as naive as fans (or maybe they are), but Olson has always been very underrated. I think he would be much cheaper than J-Ram while giving us a similar boost. Olson would be a massive add for us. Certainly will still be quite expensive though.

 

If the A's want Tellez then ok I guess that's fine, but he would at must just be a non-entity in the trade. I'd rather keep him as a potential cheap DH option unless Oakland is foolish enough to actually attach a lot of value to him.

[reillymcshane]

In the Olson vs Ramirez debate, I'm guessing Ramirez is more costly to acquire.

 

The guy has an incredibly consistent track record - producing 6-7+ WAR every year for the past five years except one (and that was a 3.0 WAR). That's really pretty astounding. Add in the ability to play a very good 3B and 2B - and he's just a better player.

 

Not that Olson isn't good. He's really good. But his numbers haven't quite equaled Ramirez's. And he's not been as consistent. And it's hard to ignore his bad 2020 (.195 BA).

 

Olson is a lefty, while Ramirez is a switch hitter. Ramirez has virtually no split differences (.857 OPS vs righties, .851 vs lefties). Olson has more dramatic splits - but not huge - .884 OPS vs righties, .804 vs lefties. These are career numbers.

 

Olson is a year younger - so that's not a huge deal. And salaries shouldn't be too different, and both have two years of control.

 

Both would be amazing players to add. Both would cost a ton.

[JohnBriggs12]

If you have a trade for Olson, wouldn't you think Tellez be included it to give the As a Replacement for 1st base?

 

Olson might have been in the back of Stearns' mind when he acquired Tellez. He'd be a key part of a deal for Olson as they don't have a logical replacement for him in their lineup.

[TURBO]

I don't think Rowdy would be a "key" part of the trade, but he could definitely be a piece...

[JosephC]

Folks need to take a step back and take a longer look at how team would value Tellez. Tellez now has 3 years + 4 days of MLB service time. However, it's actually lower when calculating the numbers because the 2020 season was only 37% of a full season. So for the math involved, Tellez has 2.37 years as a major leaguer. During that time, he has 934 plate appearances, so he's gotten ample opportunity and hasn't been a primary bench-warmer. Baseball Reference has him with a career 0.7 WAR and Fangraphs has him with a career 0.7 WAR. So he has been worth 0.3 WAR per season. He is barely above replacement level and really has no surplus value.

 

In all honesty, in part of a projected trade with the A's, if the last piece offered them was Tellez or Carlos Rodriguez, I don't think it's a slam dunk that they take Tellez.

[NievesNoNO]

I didn't realize how much more contact Olson made this season. I'm significantly more intrigued in potentially making a deal for him. I'd consider including Ashby; if I'm the A's that's who I'm targeting from the Brewers and if they decline I'm moving on.

 

On Tellez, no I don't think he's a difference maker in trade value. That said, if I'm trading with the Brewers he's a guy that I'd have an interest in having included. He feels like a great opportunity to make a quick profit on. I probably like him more than most. I think he hasn't quite put things together yet and probably has a 30 HR, .250, type potential if he can get full time AB's, imo. He always took a back seat to the Jays young stars and was easy to bench during a slump.

[monty57]

As pointed out in the latter, the A’s are going to lose a significant amount of talent to free agency without any clear replacements waiting in the wings, and more importantly have 10 players likely to command over $57 million in arbitration which would be approximately 2/3rds of what the team spent on payroll in 2021.

 

Since the Brewers could have three players making around $20M each in arby in a couple of years, does anyone else see the Brewers being in a similar situation to the current A's team before long? Wouldn't this problem just get worse if we trade some of our MLB-ready young talent to acquire more players who are already in their arby years?

 

Rather than trading away Ashby, I think we'll look for more guys in Ashby's situation (just breaking into the majors, but may be blocked by current star players). Or, we'll look for an Adames-type situation of a talented young player with some MLB playing time who is set to lose his position to an up-and-coming prospect.

 

Bottom line, we need more guys with 5-6 years of control. We do not need to add to the glut of players who will be free agents in 2-3 years.

[TURBO]

Yeah, I am so against trading guys like Ashby and Small for the reasons you stated.

 

Great points!

[sveumrules]

Since the Brewers could have three players making around $20M each in arby in a couple of years, does anyone else see the Brewers being in a similar situation to the current A's team before long?

 

The Brewers looming arbitration situation could definitely require some tricky decisions over the next couple few offseasons, but if the A's had the Brewers stadium, ownership, fan support & payroll capability they would probably be adding to their team this offseason instead of selling off key pieces to the highest bidders.

[monty57]

Since the Brewers could have three players making around $20M each in arby in a couple of years, does anyone else see the Brewers being in a similar situation to the current A's team before long?

 

The Brewers looming arbitration situation could definitely require some tricky decisions over the next couple few offseasons, but if the A's had the Brewers stadium, ownership, fan support & payroll capability they would probably be adding to their team this offseason instead of selling off key pieces to the highest bidders.

 

Right, but they're looking at 10 players making $57M, while in a couple years we'll be looking at four players (Yelich, Woodruff, Burnes, Adames) potentially making around $86M, with a lot of other guys (Urias, Lauer, Houser, Williams, etc) in arby and very few (if any) good, young players making league minimum. Oh, and we'll still be paying JBJ, Braun and probably a few others their deferred salary.

 

If we add Olson, we're basically trading for him for one year, and will look to trade him (and Hader) away next offseason before they leave for free agency. I can understand that strategy, but I'd prefer it if Stearns can pull of some of his "magic" and find a guy with 5-6 years of control left, who will still be around for a few years after we've had to start trading away (or losing to free agency) guys like Woodruff, Adames and Burnes.

 

These would be guys like Adames, who will get the board sarcastically saying "our big acquisition is a guy hitting below .200, print up the World Series tickets now," only to be saying "this guy should be MVP" a few weeks later. Another example would be Urias, who has turned a lot of doubters into fans. I know I ask a lot, but Stearns and his team seem to be pretty good at finding young guys who turn out to be pretty good players. I doubt he's going to do what everyone expects, like trading young talent for a "big bat" with limited control. I think he's more likely to trade away one of our starting pitchers (Lauer, Houser) for a young position player with a lot of control.

[brewcrewdue80]

I would love to see the Yankees trade Dominguez for Olson. Tbh, not sure Dominguez really showed his promise last year from the hype. He's not making the majors it looks from his numbers next season. So he'd be 20years old at best entering the League. Seems old from the hype to not be playing at the MLB level before 20. Trout and Harper were 18-19 as rookies.