Ketel Marte

[Eye Black]

Ketel Marte is someone along the same lines of Reynolds that could be a possibility on the trade market. Arizona is going nowhere, he's a switch hitter with up the middle positional versatility and is on a team friendly extension that pays 8 million in 2022 with 10/12 million team options for 2023/24.

 

Since 2019 he's posted a 319/375/541 (137 wRC+) line with a 13.9% K rate & tallied 9.5 WAR, 28th best in that span. He wouldn't be cheap to acquire in terms of prospects, but entering his age 28 season in 2022 lines up nicely with our current MLB core.

 

That's a good call and potentially a buy-lowish guy because he was hurt last year. Although he still raked over the 90 games he did play.

I am quoting from the Bryan Reynolds thread and starting a new one dedicated to Ketel Marte.

 

I think Marte would be the perfect player for the Brewers to target this offseason. Having a switch hitter that has played at an elite level to stick in the top half of the lineup would really make things look better heading into 2022. He also just turned 28 this month.

 

I think I’d be fine with them trading any 3 prospects that have yet to make their major league debut, or maybe any two prospects and Hiura. I think something along the lines of a couple of close to the majors prospects such as Mitchell and Small, and either Hiura or lower level prospect could get it done.

[MadThinker88]

Ketel Marte would be a very good fit for many teams in trade.

There are reports that the DBacks were telling teams to pound salt when they inquired about KMarte at the 2021 trade deadline..

[nate82]

I like Pavin Smith more but I doubt the Dbacks would trade him. Pavin Smith can play all 3 OF spots and 1B. I just don't believe he is someone the Dbacks would be willing to trade though with Beer maybe they would look at trading Smith.

 

Marte would be an interesting target but where would he play? He doesn't really have the arm to play RF so that leaves CF, LF and 2B. I just don't see the Brewers carrying another OF with JBJ, Cain, Taylor and Yelich already on the roster and possibly even Hiura as an OF.

 

I am just not sure there is a fit here for the Brewers position wise though the Brewers could always just move Yelich to 1B or DH.

 

For a Marte trade I think his value has come down a bit due to the injuries and I think he is closer to a surplus value of around $30m. So Mitchell, Quero and Small should be enough to get Marte. I wouldn't really be interested in that due to Marte's recent injuries. The only way I would be trading for Marte is if the Brewers traded Cain in another move.

[TURBO]

I am 100% sure the Brewers will bring in another outfielder in the off season if the right deal comes along. They were willing to bring in Reynolds last year, and we already had Yelich, Cain, JBJ, Garcia, and Taylor on the roster.

 

I'm afraid, that for whatever reason, Taylor will not get the chance to become an every day starter...

[nate82]

I am 100% sure the Brewers will bring in another outfielder in the off season if the right deal comes along. They were willing to bring in Reynolds last year, and we already had Yelich, Cain, JBJ, Garcia, and Taylor on the roster.

 

I'm afraid, that for whatever reason, Taylor will not get the chance to become an every day starter...

 

I don't believe Taylor is an everyday player he appears to be best used as a 4th or 5th OF. I wouldn't mind sending Taylor to another team if the right deal comes around.

[Eye Black]

There are reports that the DBacks were telling teams to pound salt when they inquired about KMarte at the 2021 trade deadline..

Wasn’t Marte injured in June and then remained out until after the trade deadline? I can’t blame them for not wanting to trade him under those circumstances, I’d assume that’s not a great scenario for extracting maximum trade value.

[Devinep]

I would love the Brewers to get him to play RF. His numbers were curiously awful in CF this last year but his bat obviously plays in the corners also. A High average switch hitter who can rake is exactly what this team needs.

 

Plus, he can still play 2B pretty well and Wong went on the IL 3 times last year so his versatility would help get Tyrone Taylor some deserved playing time

[sveumrules]

Yeah, the two big barriers would seem to be a likely high acquisition cost & questionable defensive fit.

 

Ketel was brutal in CF last year (-15 DRS in 567 innings), but he was +3 in 722 innings prior so maybe the balky hamstring was the culprit?

 

He's also played 2279 innings at SS with +2 DRS & 1945 innings at 2B with +20 DRS, so last year in CF was really kind of an outlier poor defensive showing.

 

While Ketel's never played RF, he should have plenty of arm/athleticism to be fine out there if he has enough arm/athleticism for SS/CF.

[StearnsFTW]

I like Pavin Smith more but I doubt the Dbacks would trade him. Pavin Smith can play all 3 OF spots and 1B. I just don't believe he is someone the Dbacks would be willing to trade though with Beer maybe they would look at trading Smith.

 

Marte would be an interesting target but where would he play? He doesn't really have the arm to play RF so that leaves CF, LF and 2B. I just don't see the Brewers carrying another OF with JBJ, Cain, Taylor and Yelich already on the roster and possibly even Hiura as an OF.

 

I am just not sure there is a fit here for the Brewers position wise though the Brewers could always just move Yelich to 1B or DH.

 

For a Marte trade I think his value has come down a bit due to the injuries and I think he is closer to a surplus value of around $30m. So Mitchell, Quero and Small should be enough to get Marte. I wouldn't really be interested in that due to Marte's recent injuries. The only way I would be trading for Marte is if the Brewers traded Cain in another move.

 

The Pavin Smith fascination eludes me. He is an OK hitter at this point, but he definitely can't play all 3 OF spots. He's a passable 1b at best. Atrocious in CF and bad in LF. He's a DH that can't really hit. .3 fWAR in 545 PA in 2021. That's bad.

 

He's not even young. He's 26 in February.

 

Marte is vastly better than Smith in every way other than control.

 

I do agree on the positional problem with Marte. If you think he can be a decent CF (questionable, as he was very good in 2019, but not very good the last 2 years), then yeah, go for it. He's cost-controlled for 3 seasons and is a very very good hitter. If he can't play CF though, that leaves 2b or LF which are both full.

[monty57]

I am 100% sure the Brewers will bring in another outfielder in the off season if the right deal comes along. They were willing to bring in Reynolds last year, and we already had Yelich, Cain, JBJ, Garcia, and Taylor on the roster.

 

I'm afraid, that for whatever reason, Taylor will not get the chance to become an every day starter...

 

I don't believe Taylor is an everyday player he appears to be best used as a 4th or 5th OF. I wouldn't mind sending Taylor to another team if the right deal comes around.

 

May I ask why?

 

The only down seasons he had were 5-6 years ago when he was first brought up to AA. He's hit well since, including a combined .251/.324/.467/.791 MLB line in 324 PAs over three seasons, with a wRC+ of 109 while playing above average defense: RngR 5.4, UZR 5.2, UZR/150 10.8.

 

There's a long history of good OFs around the league that were Brewer prospects, but we never gave them a shot, preferring to trade for or sign "proven" guys. I'd like to see Taylor given a chance as a starter.

[nate82]

 

May I ask why?

 

The only down seasons he had were 5-6 years ago when he was first brought up to AA. He's hit well since, including a combined .251/.324/.467/.791 MLB line in 324 PAs over three seasons, with a wRC+ of 109 while playing above average defense: RngR 5.4, UZR 5.2, UZR/150 10.8.

 

There's a long history of good OFs around the league that were Brewer prospects, but we never gave them a shot, preferring to trade for or sign "proven" guys. I'd like to see Taylor given a chance as a starter.

 

[sarcasm]It is a free country but the mods may not let you ask some questions why.[/sarcasm]

 

I like Taylor a lot but I just don't see him as an everyday starting OF. I believe he is best used as a teams 4th or 5th OF as he is good defensively his offense I don't believe would hold up for a whole year. His slash line you quoted isn't bad but it isn't great either and I think it would take a dip lower his average is probably what would fall the most. He just doesn't make enough contact to be an everyday OF. He is a big K machine and I think he would get closer to 200 k's in a season if he were an everyday starter. Taylor would be fine if he is your 6th or 7th batter in the lineup but the Brewers already have enough question marks going into next year with Yelich and Hiura.

[Devinep]

Take it for what it’s worth, but I made a pretty equal trade on baseballtradevalues.com for Marte:

Brewers get: marte

 

Dbacks get: tuirang, Frelick, Huira.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I like Taylor a lot but I just don't see him as an everyday starting OF. I believe he is best used as a teams 4th or 5th OF as he is good defensively his offense I don't believe would hold up for a whole year. His slash line you quoted isn't bad but it isn't great either and I think it would take a dip lower his average is probably what would fall the most. He just doesn't make enough contact to be an everyday OF. He is a big K machine and I think he would get closer to 200 k's in a season if he were an everyday starter. Taylor would be fine if he is your 6th or 7th batter in the lineup but the Brewers already have enough question marks going into next year with Yelich and Hiura.

I also question whether Taylor could hold up for a whole season but that is really a gut feeling. None of the stats I can see provide any evidence to that. Also don't know why you say he is a K machine. Career K rate in majors is 21% and minors is 14%. I think he deserves a shot but the Brewers should not just hand him the job.

[JosephC]

Take it for what it’s worth, but I made a pretty equal trade on baseballtradevalues.com for Marte:

Brewers get: marte

 

Dbacks get: tuirang, Frelick, Huira.

 

Even with missing a big chunk of last year, the 3 year average bWAR/fWAR for Marte is 4.0 (2020 gets multiplied by 2.7 to take the shortened 60 game season to a full 162 game season). BaseballTradeValue's number seems really low to me. They have him at 37.3, then add the salaries for the next three years (30 million) = 67.3 / 9(*)(1 WAR) = 7.5 / 3 seasons = they value him at 2.5 WAR per season over the next three years. So their projection is 1.5 WAR per season under what his has done over the last three years. If you use 4 WAR per season....12 times 9(*) = 108 - 30 million in salary = 78 million. I have him as more than twice the value as BTV.

 

I strongly suspect that in a competitive market, and at 30 million over 3 years, that my number would be much closer than the BTV number.

 

If I'm in the chair of the Diamondbacks GM, I'd counter-offer-

 

OF - Garrett Mitchell

LHP - Aaron Ashby

LHP - Ethan Small

2B - Tyler Black

OF - Luis Medina

 

I'd guess Mitchell plus one of Ashby/Small are the basic requirements, can't see a deal getting done without those two pieces involved.

 

(*) = BaseballTradeValues must be using WAR = ~9 million in their model, otherwise how do you come up with Corbin Burnes number of +190.2 million? Let's say Burnes continues to pitch well and earn 24 million over the next three years, probably a fair number. So that brings the number to 214 million. 214 / 9 = 23.78 WAR / 3 seasons = 7.92 annual WAR. If you use 1 WAR = 5 million, then 214 / 5 = 42.8 WAR / 3 seasons = 14.26 annual WAR. Burnes was a 6.55 bWAR/fWAR player in 2021. No way anyone could project him to be a 14 WAR per season player. The last time a pitcher hit 14 bWAR was Walter Johnson back in 1913. So I guess I will qualify my statement. If Burnes pitches an average of 350 innings per season over the next three years, there is an outside chance that he could be a 14 WAR per season player.

[brewcrewdue80]

Take it for what it’s worth, but I made a pretty equal trade on baseballtradevalues.com for Marte:

Brewers get: marte

 

Dbacks get: tuirang, Frelick, Huira.

 

Even with missing a big chunk of last year, the 3 year average bWAR/fWAR for Marte is 4.0 (2020 gets multiplied by 2.7 to take the shortened 60 game season to a full 162 game season). BaseballTradeValue's number seems really low to me. They have him at 37.3, then add the salaries for the next three years (30 million) = 67.3 / 9(*)(1 WAR) = 7.5 / 3 seasons = they value him at 2.5 WAR per season over the next three years. So their projection is 1.5 WAR per season under what his has done over the last three years. If you use 4 WAR per season....12 times 9(*) = 108 - 30 million in salary = 78 million. I have him as more than twice the value as BTV.

 

I strongly suspect that in a competitive market, and at 30 million over 3 years, that my number would be much closer than the BTV number.

 

If I'm in the chair of the Diamondbacks GM, I'd counter-offer-

 

OF - Garrett Mitchell

LHP - Aaron Ashby

LHP - Ethan Small

2B - Tyler Black

OF - Luis Medina

 

I'd guess Mitchell plus one of Ashby/Small are the basic requirements, can't see a deal getting done without those two pieces involved.

 

(*) = BaseballTradeValues must be using WAR = ~9 million in their model, otherwise how do you come up with Corbin Burnes number of +190.2 million? Let's say Burnes continues to pitch well and earn 24 million over the next three years, probably a fair number. So that brings the number to 214 million. 214 / 9 = 23.78 WAR / 3 seasons = 7.92 annual WAR. If you use 1 WAR = 5 million, then 214 / 5 = 42.8 WAR / 3 seasons = 14.26 annual WAR. Burnes was a 6.55 bWAR/fWAR player in 2021. No way anyone could project him to be a 14 WAR per season player. The last time a pitcher hit 14 bWAR was Walter Johnson back in 1913. So I guess I will qualify my statement. If Burnes pitches an average of 350 innings per season over the next three years, there is an outside chance that he could be a 14 WAR per season player.

 

Just not going to see a 5 for 1. Arizona would have to toss in likely a cheap 1WAR ish type RP. Looking at BRef that may include: Kevin Ginkel, J.B. Bukauskas, Jon Duplantier, or a Miguel Aguilar. Guys you can shuttle with options that may have some upside to their potential with work in their pitching complex.

 

I am on the side that I'd stick with Taylor this offseason and look for the upgrade in a trade deadline move next year if that is needed. Your top prospects are OFs. You need to control your payroll expenses/obligations until you have found a deal you like trading Hader or Woodruff who are going to get very expensive in arb.

[nate82]

Even with missing a big chunk of last year, the 3 year average bWAR/fWAR for Marte is 4.0 (2020 gets multiplied by 2.7 to take the shortened 60 game season to a full 162 game season). BaseballTradeValue's number seems really low to me. They have him at 37.3, then add the salaries for the next three years (30 million) = 67.3 / 9(*)(1 WAR) = 7.5 / 3 seasons = they value him at 2.5 WAR per season over the next three years. So their projection is 1.5 WAR per season under what his has done over the last three years. If you use 4 WAR per season....12 times 9(*) = 108 - 30 million in salary = 78 million. I have him as more than twice the value as BTV.

 

I strongly suspect that in a competitive market, and at 30 million over 3 years, that my number would be much closer than the BTV number.

 

If I'm in the chair of the Diamondbacks GM, I'd counter-offer-

 

OF - Garrett Mitchell

LHP - Aaron Ashby

LHP - Ethan Small

2B - Tyler Black

OF - Luis Medina

 

I'd guess Mitchell plus one of Ashby/Small are the basic requirements, can't see a deal getting done without those two pieces involved.

 

(*) = BaseballTradeValues must be using WAR = ~9 million in their model, otherwise how do you come up with Corbin Burnes number of +190.2 million? Let's say Burnes continues to pitch well and earn 24 million over the next three years, probably a fair number. So that brings the number to 214 million. 214 / 9 = 23.78 WAR / 3 seasons = 7.92 annual WAR. If you use 1 WAR = 5 million, then 214 / 5 = 42.8 WAR / 3 seasons = 14.26 annual WAR. Burnes was a 6.55 bWAR/fWAR player in 2021. No way anyone could project him to be a 14 WAR per season player. The last time a pitcher hit 14 bWAR was Walter Johnson back in 1913. So I guess I will qualify my statement. If Burnes pitches an average of 350 innings per season over the next three years, there is an outside chance that he could be a 14 WAR per season player.

 

I think you are overvaluing Marte here especially with the hamstring injuries and he is getting older. If the hamstring injuries are serious you could see Marte only being a 2B and not an OF. I think that brings his value down a lot and I don't see teams giving up anywhere close to $40m in value. At best a team is only going to offer one of someone like Mitchell or Ashby and then one of Small or Black type of prospects.

 

Your valuation is overly high and I just don't see a team giving up said players for Marte.

[clancyphile]

I'd be cool with acquiring Marte.

 

SS Brice Turang

LHP Eric Lauer

OF Tristen Lutz

RHP Cam Robinson

[wntrtxn21]

I'd be cool with acquiring Marte.

 

SS Brice Turang

LHP Eric Lauer

OF Tristen Lutz

RHP Cam Robinson

 

I don't think those four guys would get you even close to Marte. It's a pretty big under pay for KM and Marte will be highly priced if he is available. I think they'll be looking for much higher upsides than Lutz and Robinson.

[sveumrules]

I'd be cool with acquiring Marte.

 

SS Brice Turang

LHP Eric Lauer

OF Tristen Lutz

RHP Cam Robinson

 

Is Brice Turang a good enough prospect to headline a Marte deal or is he the 23rd best prospect in the system as you voted him in the midseason poll? Both can't be true.

 

Why would the DBacks want Lauer, who will be a free agent before they have any chance of being relevant again?