Nick Castellanos to be a Brewer?

[TURBO]

Since there isn't much to talk about regarding the Brewers, I've seen this posted in a few different forms, in a few different places.

 

https://reviewingthebrew.com/2021/10/23/brewers-mlb-insider-picks-milwaukee-land-rival-free-agent-slugger/amp/?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR1CTJJtkLgEsoCkIwyLs2w81-azLAaLC4zhcouXwNymteFaeh9YnXa0PTM

 

https://wisportsheroics.com/brewers-rumored-to-be-landing-spot-for-nick-castellanos/?fbclid=IwAR1e8oGE94ZiDkkVn_WjVvb_E_5FpP7yUXG5bUxTRNvdCJC_MjMHJigFGdw

[wibadgers23]

Makes sense on paper since the Brewers are likely to lose Garcia. Castellanos could DH too assuming the NL gets the DH next year. We’ll have to find a way to shed some payroll for this to work though. I would personally love to see Castellanos in a Brewers uniform.

[brewmann04]

He be a nice start but think we be outspent

[JosephC]

There is a non-insider sitting in my chair thinking it's pretty unlikely this happens.

 

The metrics had Cain being a plus-plus centerfielder and Yelich a plus-plus left fielder when Stearns acquired them. Bradley also had very good defensive metrics. Garcia not so great, but above average in both DRS rPM and rARM over the previous four seasons...and I strongly suspect that the Brewers front office numbers saw him as being better defensively than DRS and UZR/150 (again, just a guess on my part).

 

Now if Castellanos is willing to go to first base, then I might think differently. But I thought Castellanos was on record saying he was against moving back to the infield.

 

I also don't see Stearns being interesting in paying a DH top dollar. But I could be dead wrong on that since there is no history with Stearns and DH's. But I've been hoping the last few years that Stearns would use a first round pick to get a mashing type guy that would project as a first baseman and live with the bad defense, and for the most part Stearns has been picking players that appear to be solid players both offensively and defensively. Hiura would be the big exception but there is always a chance that the Brewers did think he'd become at least an average second baseman defensively.

 

Even if the money was there, Castellanos just doesn't seem like a good fit based on what Stearns has done in the past. Who know though, the way last season ended he just might be that desperate to get a bat that he breaks tendency.

[nate82]

There is a non-insider sitting in my chair thinking it's pretty unlikely this happens.

 

The metrics had Cain being a plus-plus centerfielder and Yelich a plus-plus left fielder when Stearns acquired them. Bradley also had very good defensive metrics. Garcia not so great, but above average in both DRS rPM and rARM over the previous four seasons...and I strongly suspect that the Brewers front office numbers saw him as being better defensively than DRS and UZR/150 (again, just a guess on my part).

 

Now if Castellanos is willing to go to first base, then I might think differently. But I thought Castellanos was on record saying he was against moving back to the infield.

 

I also don't see Stearns being interesting in paying a DH top dollar. But I could be dead wrong on that since there is no history with Stearns and DH's. But I've been hoping the last few years that Stearns would use a first round pick to get a mashing type guy that would project as a first baseman and live with the bad defense, and for the most part Stearns has been picking players that appear to be solid players both offensively and defensively. Hiura would be the big exception but there is always a chance that the Brewers did think he'd become at least an average second baseman defensively.

 

Even if the money was there, Castellanos just doesn't seem like a good fit based on what Stearns has done in the past. Who know though, the way last season ended he just might be that desperate to get a bat that he breaks tendency.

 

I don't think he will break from what he has been doing. I think Rizzo is probably who they will target for 1B similar to the Brewers signing Smoak. I think a 2 or 3-year deal for Rizzo is where the Brewers go in FA. Castellanos would be nice but I think Bryant signing with the Brewers is far more likely than Castellanos.

[TURBO]

I think Rizzo's best days are behind him. Is he even much more than average as a first basemen these days?

 

He'll cost more than he is worth imo.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think someone like Jorge Soler will cost less and therefore a more likely FA target to replace Garcia. Garcia lead the Brewers will 29 HR in 2021 and we will need to replace his power and then some.

 

Urias (23) and Adames (20) are only other 2021 Brewers to top 20 HR. That's pathetic.

[sveumrules]

I think someone like Jorge Soler will cost less and therefore a more likely FA target to replace Garcia. Garcia lead the Brewers will 29 HR in 2021 and we will need to replace his power and then some.

 

Urias (23) and Adames (20) are only other 2021 Brewers to top 20 HR. That's pathetic.

 

The Brewers hit 194 HR in 2021. The average NL team hit 192 HRs in 2021.

 

I'd classify the Pirates (124 HR) as abysmal, the DBacks (144 HR) and Marlins (158 HR) as pathetic, the Mets (176 HR), Padres (180 HR), Nationals (182 HR) and Rockies (182 HR) as below average, the Brewers (194 HR), Cardinals (198 HR) and Phillies (198 HR) as average, the Cubs (210 HR) and Reds (212 HR) as above average and the Dodgers (237 HR), Braves (239 HR) and Giants (241 HR) as much power.

[brewers888]

This team needs a difference maker offensively the type of guy other teams fear. Castellanos is that type of hitter and Rizzo at this point in his career is not. We have enough all around players that aren't great hitters and that needs to change.

[monty57]

This team needs a difference maker offensively the type of guy other teams fear. Castellanos is that type of hitter and Rizzo at this point in his career is not. We have enough all around players that aren't great hitters and that needs to change.

 

We had some mashers back in the day, with guys like Sexson, Burnitz, and Jenkins. We didn't win many games, but they hit a lot of homers. I prefer watching our current "all around players" win 90+ games and make the playoffs every year, but to each their own.

[A Swing and A Drive]

As we are seeing this postseason, home run hitters can be HUGE difference makers in the playoffs.

 

No one has really talked about it, but the Brewers certainly missed having a player like Ryan Braun going into the 2021 playoffs.

[Devinep]

This team needs a difference maker offensively the type of guy other teams fear. Castellanos is that type of hitter and Rizzo at this point in his career is not. We have enough all around players that aren't great hitters and that needs to change.

 

We had some mashers back in the day, with guys like Sexson, Burnitz, and Jenkins. We didn't win many games, but they hit a lot of homers. I prefer watching our current "all around players" win 90+ games and make the playoffs every year, but to each their own.

 

You seem to be ignoring the slight difference in quality of pitching in your comparison of today’s team to the teams of back then

[TURBO]

I just don't see this happening unless we shed some salary somehow.

[brewers888]

I just don't see this happening unless we shed some salary somehow.

 

I think we might be stuck rolling with the same lineup unless we acquire a big time hitter in a trade. With Yelich and his exhorbitant salary kicking in next season and the raises due to the arbitration guys I just don't see how we can add a big salary like Castellanos even if he is exactly the type of hitter this lineup desperately lacks.

[StearnsFTW]

I just don't see this happening unless we shed some salary somehow.

 

I think we might be stuck rolling with the same lineup unless we acquire a big time hitter in a trade. With Yelich and his exhorbitant salary kicking in next season and the raises due to the arbitration guys I just don't see how we can add a big salary like Castellanos even if he is exactly the type of hitter this lineup desperately lacks.

 

It basically amounts to a trade of Cain for Castellanos (theoretically anyway). It's just a question of what you have to attach to Cain to get rid of him. Assuming that's the direction they want to go. That's a little tricky though, unless you think Taylor can handle CF every day (I don't, personally).

 

There are many indicators that Stearns would not be comfortable with an OF of Yelich/Taylor/Castellanos defensively.

 

Doesn't seem likely at all to me.

[sveumrules]

I just don't see this happening unless we shed some salary somehow.

 

Shed salary is one option. Raise payroll is another.

 

Cots has the Brewers at 91 million on Opening Day 2018, which then jumped to 122.5 on OD19. Of course most of that was Yaz/Moose being available on one year deals & the Brewers financials were also probably more robust back in pre-pandemic times.

 

Fast forward to now & Cots had OD21 at 99 million. I feel like the early estimates other users have done with Arby raises etc have OD22 ballparked around 100-105 million.

 

If Mark A & company are willing to approach that OD19 number (& they should be willing to exceed it imo) for 2022 that should give Stearns & company enough room to sign a free agent hitter of Castellanos caliber.

 

Make a trade to bring in a second impact bat & I'd call that a pretty solid offseason.

[brewmann04]

I think Mark knows he needs to increase the payroll for a bat or two and will add to the payroll

[wntrtxn21]

I just don't see this happening unless we shed some salary somehow.

 

Shed salary is one option. Raise payroll is another.

 

Cots has the Brewers at 91 million on Opening Day 2018, which then jumped to 122.5 on OD19. Of course most of that was Yaz/Moose being available on one year deals & the Brewers financials were also probably more robust back in pre-pandemic times.

 

Fast forward to now & Cots had OD21 at 99 million. I feel like the early estimates other users have done with Arby raises etc have OD22 ballparked around 100-105 million.

 

If Mark A & company are willing to approach that OD19 number (& they should be willing to exceed it imo) for 2022 that should give Stearns & company enough room to sign a free agent hitter of Castellanos caliber.

 

Make a trade to bring in a second impact bat & I'd call that a pretty solid offseason.

 

I thought COTS had the 2022 OD payroll at $116.5M. SPORTAC had them at $121M, but that included Garcia.

[sveumrules]

I thought COTS had the 2022 OD payroll at $116.5M. SPORTAC had them at $121M, but that included Garcia.

 

The Cots & Spotrac estimates appear to be operating under the assumption that everyone is tendered, but a few guys will probably end up being non-tendered bringing that number down.

 

Neither site is accounting for the JBJ deferrals either with 2022 numbers of 11 million (Cots) & 9.5 million (Spotrac) currently listed, where JBJ's only getting paid 3.666 million next year. Who knows how Brewers accounting handles that kind of thing but the contract was intentionally structured so that the majority of the money is paid out after the contract is over, so I'd imagine that was done with the intention of freeing up cash in the short term, while the deferred payments hopefully shouldn't be as onerous to the team's finances farther out from the pandemic.

[JohnBriggs12]

I just don't see this happening unless we shed some salary somehow.

 

I think we might be stuck rolling with the same lineup unless we acquire a big time hitter in a trade. With Yelich and his exhorbitant salary kicking in next season and the raises due to the arbitration guys I just don't see how we can add a big salary like Castellanos even if he is exactly the type of hitter this lineup desperately lacks.

 

It basically amounts to a trade of Cain for Castellanos (theoretically anyway). It's just a question of what you have to attach to Cain to get rid of him. Assuming that's the direction they want to go. That's a little tricky though, unless you think Taylor can handle CF every day (I don't, personally).

 

There are many indicators that Stearns would not be comfortable with an OF of Yelich/Taylor/Castellanos defensively.

 

Doesn't seem likely at all to me.

 

I think Taylor has answered any questions about his defensive ability in CF. He takes good routes, has the speed to cover a lot of ground and has a good enough arm. Castellanos isn't great but he's not the butcher he's been and if there's a universal DH, I'm sure he'll be asked to DH some. I think Soler or Garcia returning are more likely scenarios but not because of defense. It would be because they would come a little cheaper.

[Austin Tatious]

I don't know Castellanos' money would get worked out, but he seems like the perfect addition in terms of our lineup.

 

I love the idea of Taylor as our fourth outfielder. And, by that, I mean that Stearns likes to have an extra starter in the OF and an extra starter in the infield. And I applaud it. My point is he would still get a lot of starts and at bats.

 

Ditto the infield. If we have Urias, Adames, Wong and Tellez, I hope we land another infield starter.

 

In terms of money, I could see us signing a free agent of consequence to fill one of those roles and also acquiring a young productive player via trade, i.e., a guy with control even if you end up dealing good prospects (e.g., 1-2 OF, a pitcher, and younger prospects). I am thinking along the lines of our acquisitions of Cain and Yelich together.

[TURBO]

I believe we will sign one free agent bat, and trade for another.

 

No way we go into the 2022 season standing pat with what we currently have minus Garcia and Escobar. I don't think we will have either of those guys back though...

[brewmann04]

Even if the keep Escobar they need Two bats

[wntrtxn21]

Even if the keep Escobar they need Two bats

 

I think after what we saw of Escobar in the playoffs, he's gone for sure. RF is the sticky point right now because it doesn't appear Garcia will be back. I'm OK with Urias-Adames-Wong-Tellez in the infield. Narvaez at C. By default Cain is in CF and they are stuck with Yelich is in LF. RF and possibly DH need big upgrades, plus another backup infielder who can play SS.

[Eye Black]

Castellanos has opted out of his contract with the Reds.

 

From Jon Heyman:

 

Nick Castellanos opts out. Castellanos, 29, had .309/.362/.576 slash line this year. Had $34M and 2 years to go. Now a free agent.