Trading Mitchell/Small

[wibadgers23]

I think a package centered around these two guys can get us a big time bat like Reynolds or Ramirez. I’d be comfortable trading these two because you’ve got depth at both positions and if you trade for Reynolds or another OF with years of control, then that player is essentially replacing Mitchell. I really hope Stearns explores trading some of our upper tier prospects for a big time bat this offseason. Not saying empty the farm, but trade from a position or positions of depth.

[TURBO]

Doesn't Ramirez only have 2 years left on his current contract?

 

Man, it would be tough to give up both of them for 2 years of Ramirez, knowing full well we might have to trade Ramirez before his 2 years are up.

 

Maybe just Mitchell, but I'd hold on to Small. I don't want to trade Small.

[monty57]

I think a package centered around these two guys can get us a big time bat like Reynolds or Ramirez. I’d be comfortable trading these two because you’ve got depth at both positions and if you trade for Reynolds or another OF with years of control, then that player is essentially replacing Mitchell. I really hope Stearns explores trading some of our upper tier prospects for a big time bat this offseason. Not saying empty the farm, but trade from a position or positions of depth.

 

I don't know if trading Mitchell and Small would be considered "emptying the farm," but it would securely notch us into the position of "worst farm in baseball" without many (any?) "difference makers" coming up.

 

As it stands right now, we're looking at falling off a big cliff in three years. If we trade away our top guys just to try to "win now," we're setting ourselves up to be in much worse shape than the Cubs are in right now. We'd probably be looking at losing 100+ games a year for an extended period, and I highly doubt that Stearns (who preaches "sustainable success") would stick around to get us through that mess.

 

Mitchell is the heir apparent for CF when Cain and JBJ are off the books, giving us good production for league minimum which can allow for us to retain some of our more expensive players. Meanwhile, Ashby and Small give us some hope that we will be able to maintain a good rotation when Burnes and Woodruff are traded away prior to losing them to free agency "for nothing." I believe that's the only way we avoid the aforementioned "big cliff."

 

Trading Mitchell and Small would basically be doing a Marlins-style strategy to put everything on the table for one year and then blow it all up. Note that if Burnes, Woodruff and Adames continue to play at their current level, they'll each make $20M+ in their final year of arby. Throw in the "big time bats" you're looking at trading for, and there is no way the Brewers could afford their players in a 2-3 years, so the "Marlins blow up strategy" would be after next year, or maybe 2023 at the latest.

 

That's putting way too much risk on the table for me. I think we need to hold onto our top prospects, go into next year with a slightly modified version of the team that won 95 games this year, and move forward with a "sustainable success" strategy and not one that pretty much guarantees us a decade-long, painful rebuild.

[nate82]

 

I don't know if trading Mitchell and Small would be considered "emptying the farm," but it would securely notch us into the position of "worst farm in baseball" without many (any?) "difference makers" coming up.

 

As it stands right now, we're looking at falling off a big cliff in three years. If we trade away our top guys just to try to "win now," we're setting ourselves up to be in much worse shape than the Cubs are in right now. We'd probably be looking at losing 100+ games a year for an extended period, and I highly doubt that Stearns (who preaches "sustainable success") would stick around to get us through that mess.

 

Mitchell is the heir apparent for CF when Cain and JBJ are off the books, giving us good production for league minimum which can allow for us to retain some of our more expensive players. Meanwhile, Ashby and Small give us some hope that we will be able to maintain a good rotation when Burnes and Woodruff are traded away prior to losing them to free agency "for nothing." I believe that's the only way we avoid the aforementioned "big cliff."

 

Trading Mitchell and Small would basically be doing a Marlins-style strategy to put everything on the table for one year and then blow it all up. Note that if Burnes, Woodruff and Adames continue to play at their current level, they'll each make $20M+ in their final year of arby. Throw in the "big time bats" you're looking at trading for, and there is no way the Brewers could afford their players in a 2-3 years, so the "Marlins blow up strategy" would be after next year, or maybe 2023 at the latest.

 

That's putting way too much risk on the table for me. I think we need to hold onto our top prospects, go into next year with a slightly modified version of the team that won 95 games this year, and move forward with a "sustainable success" strategy and not one that pretty much guarantees us a decade-long, painful rebuild.

 

I agree trading Mitchell and Small is a lot of risk. Trading Small is probably a bigger risk as there is not much behind him in the minors at least not yet. The Brewers can't really afford paying for #4 and #5 pitchers in free agency the premium is way too high for the Brewers to be paying. The Brewers need to be keeping as much in house pitching as they can so if they do need to go out and sign someone they can go out and get a better bat where you are not paying as high of a premium in free agency. If the right deal comes along and you get another chance at trading for a Yelich type of a deal then I would think about trading Mitchell but I wouldn't want to trade Small because of the lack of depth behind Small. If that means a deal can't be done then I am fine with that.

 

Frelick, Wiemer and others are also possible options in CF but they are just a bit behind Mitchell. A stopgap in CF could be Ray or Urias for a year or two.

[wntrtxn21]

Trading Mitchell and Small would basically be doing a Marlins-style strategy to put everything on the table for one year and then blow it all up. Note that if Burnes, Woodruff and Adames continue to play at their current level, they'll each make $20M+ in their final year of arby. Throw in the "big time bats" you're looking at trading for, and there is no way the Brewers could afford their players in a 2-3 years, so the "Marlins blow up strategy" would be after next year, or maybe 2023 at the latest.

 

That's putting way too much risk on the table for me. I think we need to hold onto our top prospects, go into next year with a slightly modified version of the team that won 95 games this year, and move forward with a "sustainable success" strategy and not one that pretty much guarantees us a decade-long, painful rebuild.

 

 

It's a catch 22 situation. If they don't trade off some of the top prospects for improved offense, with the budget constraints, they are doomed to the same below average offense we saw in the playoffs and the same results or worse. If the Brewers can't afford many of their best players in 3 years, then they are stuck with a putrid offense and possibly worse pitching. Eventually small market teams have to make a decision.

[wibadgers23]

I guess I don’t understand how trading Mitchell and Small is a one year go for it type scenario if you’re trading for guys with years of control like Reynolds. Plus, you’ve got Wiemer who is just a tick behind Mitchell and Frelick who looked promising in his brief debut. I can agree trading Small is a gamble since the pitching is currently thin in the system. You can always replenish the system through trades and good drafting so I would hope that if Stearns has the opportunity to trade for an elite hitter and it takes trading Mitchell/Small, that he would pull the trigger.

[LouisEly]

I think Turang is much more likely to be traded in any significant deal than Mitchell.

 

After this season Cain and Garcia will be free agents (it's likely that Garcia declines his option this offseason)and JBJ will likely be gone too, leaving only Taylor and Yelich as OFs on the roster. They will have three OF spots to fill and Mitchell is closest to the majors of their OF prospects with any chance to be ready in 2023.

 

They have Adames under control through 2025 with Hamilton, Zamora, Garcia, and Chourio behind Turang for org SS depth.

[brewmann04]

Can’t trade young arms IMO.

[monty57]

I guess I don’t understand how trading Mitchell and Small is a one year go for it type scenario if you’re trading for guys with years of control like Reynolds. Plus, you’ve got Wiemer who is just a tick behind Mitchell and Frelick who looked promising in his brief debut. I can agree trading Small is a gamble since the pitching is currently thin in the system. You can always replenish the system through trades and good drafting so I would hope that if Stearns has the opportunity to trade for an elite hitter and it takes trading Mitchell/Small, that he would pull the trigger.

 

I said that because Reynolds is on the same track as Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames. If all of those guys continue playing well, they will continue to get more expensive. He would fit in nicely as an inexpensive addition in 2022. Trying to keep everyone would start to get tricky by 2023, and would probably be impossible by 2024 as these guys could make $60-$80M in addition to Yelich's $26M while we'd have no good pre-arby guys because we traded them away. Then we fall off a cliff when they leave as free agents.

 

I think that if we make a move like this (obviously we are interested, as Stearns was already making offers), the plan would be to have all of these guys together for a year or two and then start trading them off before they all bust our budget and then leave for free agency. Since the group that would be free agents around the same time would include Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Reynolds, Urias, Hader, Suter, Peralta, Tellez, Lauer and Houser, that'd sure be a lot of talent to lose, especially if the plan is to trade away our good "near MLB-ready" prospects like Mitchell and Small.

 

Stearns has always preached "sustained success," so it would seem odd of him to put everything into a short "window" and then be stuck with a franchise that would be pretty much devoid of much talent at any level. Hence, why I think a trade for Reynolds would be a shorter-term plan of having a lot of talent for a couple years before flipping a lot of the roster for younger talent.

[KCBrewerfan34]

How is JBJ going to be gone? he's a definite OPT IN isn't he?

[monty57]

How is JBJ going to be gone? he's a definite OPT IN isn't he?

 

I would think so. He has a really weird contract that pays lots of different deferrals over lots of different years. Looks like he'd get a $6.5M buyout if he opts out of the $9.5M contract, but he may give up the $8M buyout on the mutual option for 2023 if he opts out now.

 

Most of his money appears to be deferred over the next several years, so the '22 contract shouldn't have too much effect on the '22 payroll, but will affect future years' payrolls through deferrals.

 

I think Stearns and Bradley's agent may have been enjoying some beverages when they put together this deal.

[Jopal78]

Trading 2024's Brewers for a short-term player today is against everything the Brewers have been trying to do as an organization. Such establishing a consistent flow of talent from the farm system to the major league roster in order to be competitive year in and year out.

 

I would think so. He has a really weird contract that pays lots of different deferrals over lots of different years. Looks like he'd get a $6.5M buyout if he opts out of the $9.5M contract, but he may give up the $8M buyout on the mutual option for 2023 if he opts out now.

 

Most of his money appears to be deferred over the next several years, so the '22 contract shouldn't have too much effect on the '22 payroll, but will affect future years' payrolls through deferrals.

 

I think Stearns and Bradley's agent may have been enjoying some beverages when they put together this deal

 

As to JBJ it's not that complicated, its about the AAV which he allowed the team to spread out over multiple years. In the unlikely event he declines his 2022 player option, he will have played for the Brewers for one season with an AAV of 13 million dollars ($6.5 was up front and $6.5 buyout if he declines the option and its spread out over time). If he elects his player option for 2021, he will have been paid the 6.5 million for 2021, 9.5 million dollars for 2022 and there is an 8.5 million dollar buy out on his 2023 mutual option. A total compensation of 24.5 million (an AAV of 12.25) again spread out over time.

[monty57]

Trading 2024's Brewers for a short-term player today is against everything the Brewers have been trying to do as an organization. Such establishing a consistent flow of talent from the farm system to the major league roster in order to be competitive year in and year out.

 

I would think so. He has a really weird contract that pays lots of different deferrals over lots of different years. Looks like he'd get a $6.5M buyout if he opts out of the $9.5M contract, but he may give up the $8M buyout on the mutual option for 2023 if he opts out now.

 

Most of his money appears to be deferred over the next several years, so the '22 contract shouldn't have too much effect on the '22 payroll, but will affect future years' payrolls through deferrals.

 

I think Stearns and Bradley's agent may have been enjoying some beverages when they put together this deal

 

As to JBJ it's not that complicated, its about the AAV which he allowed the team to spread out over multiple years. In the unlikely event he declines his 2022 player option, he will have played for the Brewers for one season with an AAV of 13 million dollars ($6.5 was up front and $6.5 buyout if he declines the option and its spread out over time). If he elects his player option for 2021, he will have been paid the 6.5 million for 2021, 9.5 million dollars for 2022 and there is an 8.5 million dollar buy out on his 2023 mutual option. A total compensation of 24.5 million (an AAV of 12.25) again spread out over time.

 

 

From Cots:

 

2 years/$24 (2021-22), plus 2023 mutual option

signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 3/5/21

21:$6.5M, 22:$9.5M player option ($6.5M buyout), 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout)

$3.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 14, 2022 and $3M on Jan. 13, 2023, and $166,667 on Jan. 12, 2023

$6.5M of player option would be deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2022, and $6.167M on Jan. 12, 2024

$6.5M buyout for 2022 would be payable $3M on Jan. 14, 2022, and $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2023, and $3.167M on Jan. 12, 2024

$8M buyout for 2023 would be payable $1M on Jan. 12, 2024, and $7M on Jan. 15, 2025

 

So, he was paid $3M in 2021. Assuming he picks up his option, he will be be paid $333,333 on 1/13/22 from the 2022 option, another $333,333 on 1/14/22 from the 2021 salary, plus $3M of 2022's salary during 2022. He will receive $166,667 on 1/12/23 from his 2021 salary, $3M of his 2021 salary on 1/13/23, and $6.167 of his 2022 option on 1/12/24. Assuming the mutual option for 2023 doesn't get picked up, he will get $1M on 1/12/24, and $7M on 1/15/25.

 

No, not confusing at all :-)

 

Bottom line, he got $3M in 2021, and will likely get $3,666,666 in 2022, $3,166,667 in 2023, $7.167M in 2024, and $7M in 2025.

 

Sorry if this is kind of derailing the thread, but it shows how JBJ's contract will effect current and future payrolls. As much as people hate paying him now, they'll really hate it in 2023-2025 when he's eating up a total of $17,333,167 of payroll space for what he did in '21 and '22. I think we'll be pretty tight on funds in 2024 (Woodruff, Burnes, Adames, Lauer, Hauser & Tellez all in final arby year), so that $7.167M going out to JBJ could really hurt.

[TURBO]

Man, that JBJ signing was a total and complete train wreck.

[sveumrules]

Man, that JBJ signing was a total and complete train wreck.

 

JBJ didn't earn his 3 million in 2021, but there is a huge gap between not earning one's contract & one's contract being a complete train wreck.

 

I'd say a complete train wreck would be signing Stephen Strasburg to a 7 year / 245 million dollar contract, then him getting predictably hurt and only pitching 27 innings the next two seasons, forcing the team into a rebuild that requires them to trade away two more franchise cornerstone type players in Scherzer/Turner, leaving them with a generational talent in Juan Soto, who will probably be stuck on some terrible teams for the foreseeable future.

 

Or maybe something like Trevor Bauer or Marcell Ozuna, who signed big FA contracts then only months later were charged with some pretty serious crimes.

 

Sure, JBJ might not be well positioned to earn his 2022 salary either, but it's not like his contract is going to single handedly spiral the Brewers into a rebuild or prevent them from being competitive. All it's preventing the Brewers from doing in 2022 is spending 3.666 million on a different marginal player.

[brewcrewdue80]

I wouldn't want to trade these two away. Turing seems your guy you dangle along with the ML pitcher-Houser, Hader, Lauer, Williams, and or Suter. Mitchell is the perfect look to take Cain's spot in the future. Guys are going to get expensive and you need to trade one or two away to afford your salary restrictions. Can use Davies-Grisham as an example of what your future trade this offseason will look like. Probably need to find the Brewers prospect who is up against rule 5 or beyond that you risk losing. Don't believe Small is that and Mitchell certainly isn't.

[TURBO]

I wouldn't want to trade these two away. Turing seems your guy you dangle along with the ML pitcher-Houser, Hader, Lauer, Williams, and or Suter. Mitchell is the perfect look to take Cain's spot in the future. Guys are going to get expensive and you need to trade one or two away to afford your salary restrictions. Can use Davies-Grisham as an example of what your future trade this offseason will look like. Probably need to find the Brewers prospect who is up against rule 5 or beyond that you risk losing. Don't believe Small is that and Mitchell certainly isn't.

 

Who is Turing?

[brewcrewdue80]

I wouldn't want to trade these two away. Turing seems your guy you dangle along with the ML pitcher-Houser, Hader, Lauer, Williams, and or Suter. Mitchell is the perfect look to take Cain's spot in the future. Guys are going to get expensive and you need to trade one or two away to afford your salary restrictions. Can use Davies-Grisham as an example of what your future trade this offseason will look like. Probably need to find the Brewers prospect who is up against rule 5 or beyond that you risk losing. Don't believe Small is that and Mitchell certainly isn't.

 

Who is Turing?

New phone auto correct problems. Turang. Kinda amazing you couldn't decipher an a vs an I mistake on one of Brewers top prospects.

[Austin Tatious]

I think Mitchell could be traded, but it would be for somebody controllable. Otherwise, I don’t think it would fit in Stearns’ stated strategy. Trading him as part of a deal for Reynolds would make sense because he can cover center and is a young controllable talent.

 

Between Houser, Lauer, Ashby, and Small, you could probably deal one and be ok, but presumably it would be part of something significant. Trading pitching is always risky, because the next thing you know, you could be short a legit arm.

 

People seem fine with trading Turang. Maybe so, but I hope we hang on to him. We actually have a surplus of outfield prospects, and depending on the return, you could deal a top OF prospect. Meanwhile, our infield prospects are lighter. Turang is an athletic kid with a good hit tool and he’s been playing up in terms of age. After all, he could just now be coming out of the draft. He might be a natural addition to the big league club when Wong’s deal expires. And I would submit that Stearns is not only ok with an extra IF, he would seek it out. I just don’t think we are that deep in the middle infield and he would want to keep Turang, but we are at least five deep with top OF prospects (Mitchell, Perez, Frelick, Wiemer, and Gray). So, I could see a deal with 1-2 OF and a pitcher.

[reillymcshane]

I wouldn't want to trade these two away. Turing seems your guy you dangle along with the ML pitcher-Houser, Hader, Lauer, Williams, and or Suter. Mitchell is the perfect look to take Cain's spot in the future. Guys are going to get expensive and you need to trade one or two away to afford your salary restrictions. Can use Davies-Grisham as an example of what your future trade this offseason will look like. Probably need to find the Brewers prospect who is up against rule 5 or beyond that you risk losing. Don't believe Small is that and Mitchell certainly isn't.

 

Who is Turing?

Alan Turing. English mathematician and computer scientist. Father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence.

 

We are hoping to have him working on the team's FanDuel account - see if we can find some way to pad the team's finances so we extend the budget.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turing

[torts]

I wouldn't want to trade these two away. Turing seems your guy you dangle along with the ML pitcher-Houser, Hader, Lauer, Williams, and or Suter. Mitchell is the perfect look to take Cain's spot in the future. Guys are going to get expensive and you need to trade one or two away to afford your salary restrictions. Can use Davies-Grisham as an example of what your future trade this offseason will look like. Probably need to find the Brewers prospect who is up against rule 5 or beyond that you risk losing. Don't believe Small is that and Mitchell certainly isn't.

 

Who is Turing?

Alan Turing. English mathematician and computer scientist. Father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence.

 

We are hoping to have him working on the team's FanDuel account - see if we can find some way to pad the team's finances so we extend the budget.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Turing

 

[TURBO]

I wouldn't want to trade these two away. Turing seems your guy you dangle along with the ML pitcher-Houser, Hader, Lauer, Williams, and or Suter. Mitchell is the perfect look to take Cain's spot in the future. Guys are going to get expensive and you need to trade one or two away to afford your salary restrictions. Can use Davies-Grisham as an example of what your future trade this offseason will look like. Probably need to find the Brewers prospect who is up against rule 5 or beyond that you risk losing. Don't believe Small is that and Mitchell certainly isn't.

 

Who is Turing?

New phone auto correct problems. Turang. Kinda amazing you couldn't decipher an a vs an I mistake on one of Brewers top prospects.

 

 

I knew who you were talking about, just making sure you did...

[MadThinker88]

Doesn't Ramirez only have 2 years left on his current contract?

 

Man, it would be tough to give up both of them for 2 years of Ramirez, knowing full well we might have to trade Ramirez before his 2 years are up.

 

Maybe just Mitchell, but I'd hold on to Small. I don't want to trade Small.

 

I am confused & I hope you (or other Brewer fans) can help me understand.

 

You suggest Mitchell & Small is too high a cost to pay for Jose Ramirez, an everyday player & top 3 MVP finalist in the AL for 3 of the past 4 seasons (2021 not yet known).

 

But many Brewer fans are looking for the equivalent to Mitchell & Small PLUS for two years of Josh Hader, a very good relief pitcher that pitches in under half the games each season.

 

I have a hard time understanding & balancing those viewpoints even when taking into account team fandom. Even the BTV site after updates has JRam at a value more than twice Hader (JRam at 72.7 & Hader at 30.2).

 

How do you see Hader bring back more value in a deal than JRam???

[nate82]

 

I am confused & I hope you (or other Brewer fans) can help me understand.

 

You suggest Mitchell & Small is too high a cost to pay for Jose Ramirez, an everyday player & top 3 MVP finalist in the AL for 3 of the past 4 seasons (2021 not yet known).

 

But many Brewer fans are looking for the equivalent to Mitchell & Small PLUS for two years of Josh Hader, a very good relief pitcher that pitches in under half the games each season.

 

I have a hard time understanding & balancing those viewpoints even when taking into account team fandom. Even the BTV site after updates has JRam at a value more than twice Hader (JRam at 72.7 & Hader at 30.2).

 

How do you see Hader bring back more value in a deal than JRam???

 

Depends on when they are traded. If Hader is traded during the off season he has less value (demand) than JRam but if Hader is traded during the deadline where relievers normally get 1.5-3x their value then yes Hader will bring back more than JRam. It all depends on when the trade happens. Positional players it seems have more value in the off season while pitchers especially relievers have an overly inflated value during the deadline.

 

This is also a Brewers fan site so valuation of the teams own players maybe over or under stated.