2021-10-12 (NLDS Game #4): Brewers (Lauer) at Braves (Morton) [Brewers lose, 5-4 -- Freeman’s 8th inning HR off Hader breaks tie, and hearts]

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lineup just submitted:

 

1. Wong - 2B

2. Adames - SS

3. Yelich - LF

4. Garcia - RF

5. Tellez - 1B

6. Urias - 3B

7. Narvaez - C

8. Cain - CF

9. Lauer - P

 

A little surprised they are switching things up a bit, or getting Taylor or Peterson in the lineup. But whatever. Dance with the one that brought you.

[Lostpawn]

With the righty Morton on the mound today and the fact the crew just isn't hitting right now, it's time to shake up the lineup...sticking with the L-R theme CC seemingly likes to use, I'd do something like this:

 

1. Wong-2B

2. Cain-CF

3. Escobar-3B

4. Adames-SS

5. Tellez-1B

6. Garcia-RF

7. Yelich-LF

8. Narvaez-C

9. Lauer-P

 

I like the mixup but this isn't going to happen. No way will they ever bat Yelich that low and I don't think Counsell will throw in a huge shakeup like this in a do or die game.

Looks like CC went with Urias over Escobar. And Yeli still in the 3 hole. Looking forward to a W today and a fun game on Thursday!

[MrTPlush]

I am just glad we get to debate whether or not to send Lauer out there (who had a great year and incredible finish to it) instead of like back in 2011 when we had to question sending Shaun Marcum out for Game 6.

 

The whole Mark Kotsay thing is so overrated and overblown. Pitching Marcum in Game 6 was by far the most idiotic thing that series and entire postseason. Marcum was a complete trash can to end the season and his two prior postseason starts were terrible before that game. The Peralta drama isn't even a sliver of stupidity compared to the Marcum start. I remember being so ticked I didn't even watch Game 6 because the result was so predictable.

[MrTPlush]

Looks like CC went with Urias over Escobar. And Yeli still in the 3 hole. Looking forward to a W today and a fun game on Thursday!

 

I mean, seems like a no-brainer to play the guy who went 2/4 in the first game against Morton.

[AKCheesehead]

This feels like the Grisham trade redemption game.

 

After the Brewers win today on the strength of Lauer's pitching and Urias's hitting, I'd like to make a motion that the IGT heading be titled Grisham Trade Redemption Game.

[Lostpawn]

This has been a terrific season to follow Brewers baseball. This team has had quite a bit of magic in it. I just don't want it to end tonight.

Thanks Beard! Love this!

 

Just got caught up on this IGT. More posts here 3+ hours before game time than there were for several entire games in the regular season. I love that much of it has been positive / optimistic so far! My early takes:

 

- Love both managers' pitcher decisions - I think both are positives for the Crew

- Yesterday's hard hit outs and "just fouls" become hits today

- Game won't be close at the end; Hader won't be needed but may still be used

- Brewers win today and recapture the momentum going home

 

I'm not a fan of individual player predictions, so I'll just say that I believe Adames has more to contribute this season. His arc hasn't ended yet.

 

Go Crew!

[Lostpawn]

Looks like CC went with Urias over Escobar. And Yeli still in the 3 hole. Looking forward to a W today and a fun game on Thursday!

 

I mean, seems like a no-brainer to play the guy who went 2/4 in the first game against Morton.

You betcha! I didn't mean for this to come off as a complaint. Was just comparing the submitted lineup to another poster's ideas.

[Bulldogboy]

I will go on record as saying pitching Lauer instead of Burnes is a mistake but it probably doesn't matter. The fact that Yelich is hitting three means Counsell is not living in the reality needed for the situation. You went out and got Escobar to help your offense and sure he's been rough but still. I thought he could play the outfield some?? I would rather see him or even Jace than Yelich or Garcia today. If Lauer gives up anything early and puts pressure on the offense it's good night.

[roadcrew3]

I will go on record as saying pitching Lauer instead of Burnes is a mistake but it probably doesn't matter. The fact that Yelich is hitting three means Counsell is not living in the reality needed for the situation. You went out and got Escobar to help your offense and sure he's been rough but still. I thought he could play the outfield some?? I would rather see him or even Jace than Yelich or Garcia today. If Lauer gives up anything early and puts pressure on the offense it's good night.

 

It has been beaten to death yesterday, Yelich isn't playing close to his MVP level, but he has actually been one of the top producers in the lineup this series. If you are willing to start Escobar only because you traded for him, then you are certainly going to start Yelich if for no other reason, because you paid him a massive contract and he has an MVP caliber history.

[Lostpawn]

Good seats still available cheap if you're in the ATL area. Atlanta fans just don't show up.

 

I lived there in the early 2000s and went to the 2001 NLCS game 3. Intentionally got there near the end of the 1st inning. Saw Schilling pitch a gem. Price? $5 / ticket off a scalper. SMH.

[MrTPlush]

I kind of hate Yelich at this point, but he has reached base in all three games and has gotten a hit in two of them. Considering our pathetic offense that seems decent.

 

He is a lefty, we are facing a righty...have it it Yeli.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I will go on record as saying pitching Lauer instead of Burnes is a mistake but it probably doesn't matter. The fact that Yelich is hitting three means Counsell is not living in the reality needed for the situation. You went out and got Escobar to help your offense and sure he's been rough but still. I thought he could play the outfield some?? I would rather see him or even Jace than Yelich or Garcia today. If Lauer gives up anything early and puts pressure on the offense it's good night.

 

Just saw this McCalvy tweet:

 

Adam McCalvy

@AdamMcCalvy

Just food for thought as you debate the Brewers' decision to start Eric Lauer in a must-win game today over bringing back Corbin Burnes:

 

In the Wild Card era (1995-present), starters on short rest in the postseason are 30-45 with a 4.58 ERA, averaging 5.1 innings.

 

So ... logic says they are making the correct call.

[adambr2]

If they can pull this out I am extremely confident the Brewers win game 5. Burnes/Woodruff/Hader should be able to shut down the Braves.

 

Whether they do or not we still need to actually be able to score on Fried.

[Bulldogboy]

I will go on record as saying pitching Lauer instead of Burnes is a mistake but it probably doesn't matter. The fact that Yelich is hitting three means Counsell is not living in the reality needed for the situation. You went out and got Escobar to help your offense and sure he's been rough but still. I thought he could play the outfield some?? I would rather see him or even Jace than Yelich or Garcia today. If Lauer gives up anything early and puts pressure on the offense it's good night.

 

Just saw this McCalvy tweet:

 

Adam McCalvy

@AdamMcCalvy

Just food for thought as you debate the Brewers' decision to start Eric Lauer in a must-win game today over bringing back Corbin Burnes:

 

In the Wild Card era (1995-present), starters on short rest in the postseason are 30-45 with a 4.58 ERA, averaging 5.1 innings.

 

So ... logic says they are making the correct call.

Don't get me wrong I hope like heck I am wrong. Just a very difficult spot to put a guy who at the break was our number 6 starter. If he feels the pressure of the moment early the offense will not have enough to come back imo. I hate Riley and Duvall against Lauer. Hope Counsell has everyone on high alert including Woodruff if need be for an inning.

[brewers888]

I will go on record and say I would have gone with Burnes and I would have switched up the lineup. Escobar should be playing first base over Rowdy and Peterson should be in right field over Garcia. Also I will be the only one to say this but give me Bradley who has had postseason success over Cain.

 

Lauer has been good but I don’t trust guys like him with average stuff in the playoffs. Going out with your fourth or fifth best starter is not a good look even if it’s understandable. If this team goes out with a whimper I hope Stearns makes big lineup changes over the offseason and finally gets rid of the incompetent hitting coach.

 

Let’s hope for the best but I’ve lost my confidence in this team because of what is a terrible offense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Adam McCalvy

@AdamMcCalvy

·

1m

Counsell said Corbin Burnes came to coaches after Game 1 and said he was interested in starting a potential Game 4 on short rest. They decided to see how he felt in the ensuing days and make a call if it came to that. In the end, Counsell said, Burnes’ body is not ready to do it.

 

I mean, this should end the argument, right?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I will go on record and say I would have gone with Burnes and I would have switched up the lineup. Escobar should be playing first base over Rowdy and Peterson should be in right field over Garcia. Also I will be the only one to say this but give me Bradley who has had postseason success over Cain.

 

Lauer has been good but I don’t trust guys like him with average stuff in the playoffs. Going out with your fourth or fifth best starter is not a good look even if it’s understandable. If this team goes out with a whimper I hope Stearns makes big lineup changes over the offseason and finally gets rid of the incompetent hitting coach.

 

Let’s hope for the best but I’ve lost my confidence in this team because of what is a terrible offense.

 

Tellez is responsible for the team's only runs in the series, and hit a bomb off the guy starting today for the Braves. Suggesting he shouldn't be in the lineup today is definitely a choice.

[TURBO]

Facebook memories are the best. This gem popped up for me today.

 

Oct 12, 2011

Kotsay starting in cf….dumb.

 

 

UUUUGGGGHHHHH!

 

Everyone in Brewer Nation except for one lone guy thought this was a bad idea. I would even bet that Kotsay himself thought this was a stupid idea.

[TURBO]

Brewers announce Lauer gets the ball today. Braves going with Morton on short rest.

 

Morton doesn't have a great track record going on short rest in the playoffs. But if he pitches well tonight, and Lauer struggles, the "should've started Burnes" chants are going to get loud. Lots of very interesting subplots in tonight's game.

 

I would love to see everyone weigh in now on this before the game so we don't have to hear the inevitable second guessing after the fact. I'll go ahead and make my argument for starting Lauer and holding back Burnes...

 

I back Counsell 100% on this decision. Lauer is the one pitcher on the roster not named Gustave who the Braves haven't gotten a look at already this series. They also have the 2nd fewest hits in the majors against lefties. You can't win this series without winning games 4 AND 5 so why decrease your chances in game 5 by spending Burnes in game 4 on short rest. Especially when Burnes has been deployed on on LONG rest (more than 4 days) for most of the season.

 

The Braves have some damn good pitching themselves. Their decision to go the short rest route and exposing their pitchers to multiple looks by Brewers batters might be the one chance to start tilting the odds back in the Brewers favor.

 

The Brewers are potentially 9 hours away from turning 3% odds into 50%+ odds. Burning Burnes today likely wouldn't make the Brewers the favorite in game 5 as I do not like the Woodruff vs Fried matchup at all with both on 4 days rest. But I definitely like Burnes on 5 days rest vs Fried on 4.

 

How do others want to weigh in before the benefit of hindsight? Let's hear it.

 

I am all for starting Lauer, and letting Burnes be our game 5 guy.

 

Burnes is used to pitching with 6 days rest, maybe even more in the past 6 weeks. I don't think we would get good Corbin today if we went with him.

 

I am 100% all in on starting Lauer.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Adam McCalvy

@AdamMcCalvy

·

1m

Counsell said Corbin Burnes came to coaches after Game 1 and said he was interested in starting a potential Game 4 on short rest. They decided to see how he felt in the ensuing days and make a call if it came to that. In the end, Counsell said, Burnes’ body is not ready to do it.

 

I mean, this should end the argument, right?

I would think so. Hard to break up the routine of being on five days' rest that was used all season long. Plus you're listening to the pitcher himself making that assessment.

 

That said, I don't think Lauer is going to be the reason why the Brewers don't win Game 4. I'd expect a good enough performance from him that means the offense needs to score 4 runs to win. The onus is on the bats.

 

Of course, Lauer could just blowup. But based on the info given, it looks like starting him is essentially the only call to make today.

[KeithStone53151]

I think going Lauer is smart, I like the lineup for as creative as CC would ever be. Urias over Escobar I've made very clear that I like.

 

I was looking at Morton's pitch chart from game 1, he was outside the zone an awful lot. He was basically fastballs upper half of the zone or higher, and curveballs lower half of the zone or lower at about a 56/42 split. 2 percent registered as other stuff, not worth considering. Against a guy like that, especially one missing the zone a lot, I think you sit on a specific pitch in a specific zone until 2 strikes.

[Bulldogboy]

Adam McCalvy

@AdamMcCalvy

·

1m

Counsell said Corbin Burnes came to coaches after Game 1 and said he was interested in starting a potential Game 4 on short rest. They decided to see how he felt in the ensuing days and make a call if it came to that. In the end, Counsell said, Burnes’ body is not ready to do it.

 

I mean, this should end the argument, right?

For me it does. Now about that lineup.

[TURBO]

Lineup just submitted:

 

1. Wong - 2B

2. Adames - SS

3. Yelich - LF

4. Garcia - RF

5. Tellez - 1B

6. Urias - 3B

7. Narvaez - C

8. Cain - CF

9. Lauer - P

 

A little surprised they are switching things up a bit, or getting Taylor or Peterson in the lineup. But whatever. Dance with the one that brought you.

 

Switch Yelich and Urias, hell, I'd even bump Rowdy to 4 and have Garcia at 5. Mix it up.

 

I think we all knew Yelich would start and hit #3 no matter what, so Taylor on the bench was 100% predictable.

 

I want nothing more than for Yelich and Garcia to prove me wrong today, and this post is in hopes of a reverse jinx! They have not pulled their weight in a while now.

[KeithStone53151]

Looking at statcast in game 1 is almost insane, Morton threw one clear in the zone fastball strike on a count he was ahead. Most came on some version of a 0 strike count. The exception, the middle middle fastball to Tellez on a 1-2 count...and we all know how that turned out. Can't imagine his gameplan changes much because why would it? After he gets strike 1, I would expect any fastballs to be mostly up out of the zone and hopefully not swung at...

[Eye Black]

It feels like the first team to 4 runs is going to win today. I realize neither team has reached that mark through the first three games, but I think someone does so today. I like the Brewers chances, especially because I think they’ll be facing Ynoa or the Braves bullpen by the 5th inning.