2021-10-12 (NLDS Game #4): Brewers (Lauer) at Braves (Morton) [Brewers lose, 5-4 -- Freeman’s 8th inning HR off Hader breaks tie, and hearts]

[Underachiever]

I think he was reacting more to the posters who said this team wouldn't be memorable, or would be a "fart in the wind". You are 100% correct in saying that you can be disappointed and upset at a lost opportunity. The point is the old cliche that the "journey is its own reward." Personally, this is been a fun season to follow the Brewers. Regardless of what happens in this series, this is a very good ballclub.

 

Two 100+ win teams will fail to reach the LCS. And if it's LA, it'll be one with a $267 million dollar payroll.

 

As frustrating as the Brewers cold snap has been, it could always be worse.

How LA and Tampa do has nothing to do with how I feel about the team I have cheered for since it came to Milwaukee in 1970. I am not emotionally invested in those franchises. It has been a fun season. I have seen how good this team can be. To see them score two runs in three games has been painful, and at no time have the Dodgers' troubles made it feel better. As a matter of fact, it makes it worse, because haven't we wanted the Dodgers to go down? Don't we want the only 100-game winning team to lose in the AL? If anything, those teams losing will make the lost opportunity seem even bigger if they cannot rebound today and Thursday.

[Underachiever]

Brewers announce Lauer gets the ball today. Braves going with Morton on short rest.

 

Morton doesn't have a great track record going on short rest in the playoffs. But if he pitches well tonight, and Lauer struggles, the "should've started Burnes" chants are going to get loud. Lots of very interesting subplots in tonight's game.

 

I would love to see everyone weigh in now on this before the game so we don't have to hear the inevitable second guessing after the fact. I'll go ahead and make my argument for starting Lauer and holding back Burnes...

 

I back Counsell 100% on this decision. Lauer is the one pitcher on the roster not named Gustave who the Braves haven't gotten a look at already this series. They also have the 2nd fewest hits in the majors against lefties. You can't win this series without winning games 4 AND 5 so why decrease your chances in game 5 by spending Burnes in game 4 on short rest. Especially when Burnes has been deployed on on LONG rest (more than 4 days) for most of the season.

 

The Braves have some damn good pitching themselves. Their decision to go the short rest route and exposing their pitchers to multiple looks by Brewers batters might be the one chance to start tilting the odds back in the Brewers favor.

 

The Brewers are potentially 9 hours away from turning 3% odds into 50%+ odds. Burning Burnes today likely wouldn't make the Brewers the favorite in game 5 as I do not like the Woodruff vs Fried matchup at all with both on 4 days rest. But I definitely like Burnes on 5 days rest vs Fried on 4.

 

How do others want to weigh in before the benefit of hindsight? Let's hear it.

100% on board with Lauer. No second-guessing from me on choice of starting pitcher.

[MoreTrife]

Just heard on the radio, since 2000, post season starts on short rest 4.something ERA.

[KeithStone53151]

Just heard on the radio, since 2000, post season starts on short rest 4.something ERA.

 

Worth noting, it should be obvious but only studs are starting on short rest. Guys like Scherzer, Kluber, Sabathia, etc. You're talking about a sample that includes almost all ace starting pitchers.

[Outlander]

If they can pull this out I am extremely confident the Brewers win game 5. Burnes/Woodruff/Hader should be able to shut down the Braves.

[Eye Black]

Brewers announce Lauer gets the ball today. Braves going with Morton on short rest.

 

Morton doesn't have a great track record going on short rest in the playoffs. But if he pitches well tonight, and Lauer struggles, the "should've started Burnes" chants are going to get loud. Lots of very interesting subplots in tonight's game.

 

I am going to give my thoughts on this now so I am not one of those people 9 innings later trying to act like I knew all along we should have done differently if Lauer sucks.

 

A) I think starting Morton today is getting too cute and over thinking it. I get the logic, you now have Morton and then Freid the last two games. However, they are in the drivers seat. Just try to win today and if not let Morton/Freid steamroll us in Game 5 if you need them both. That being said this move is a clear sign they hate their chances in a Game 5 and this decision only makes their chances in Game 5 worse if they fail to win today. Props to them for gunning for it in Game 4.

 

B) I support starting Lauer. Dude has been incredible lately and starting Burnes on short rest just seems ill-advised when we would still have to win another game anyway. Brewers hitters have Morton's stuff in recent memory...the Braves can't say the same about Lauer.

 

 

Agree on all points.

Same here, well said all around. I also will be a lot surprised if Morton lasts more than 60-65 pitches on short rest.

[Brewcrewin07]

With the righty Morton on the mound today and the fact the crew just isn't hitting right now, it's time to shake up the lineup...sticking with the L-R theme CC seemingly likes to use, I'd do something like this:

 

1. Wong-2B

2. Cain-CF

3. Escobar-3B

4. Adames-SS

5. Tellez-1B

6. Garcia-RF

7. Yelich-LF

8. Narvaez-C

9. Lauer-P

 

I might even consider starting Jace in RF today over Avi.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Brewcrewin07

[roadcrew3]

I trust the decision to start Lauer, but think Burnes should still be available out of the pen. Don't use him if you don't have to but if you need to bridge to get to Hader, I would rather see him before you have Boxberger throw a third straight game.

 

I also think Counsell shouldn't reserve Hader for the 9th but should turn to him at whatever moment Atlanta is poising their biggest threat, assuming we're in the middle innings and beyond. If Lauer gets into trouble in one of the middle innings, I wouldn't be afraid to turn to Josh to get out of it and assuming he does, would like to see them then use Burnes to try to get to the distance. In years past, Counsell has been creative with his use of the pen and I'm hoping if the situation is warranted, we see more of that today.

[Eye Black]

If you build your baseball fandom around winning a World Series, you're going to be disappointed the vast majority of the time. Baseball is the most "journey/process" sport there is. Without finding some joy in the Carlos Gomezes playing on sub-70-win teams, without being able to enjoy the best pitching staff in team history even if one of them goes 9-10, there's just very little fun to be had.

 

This isn't me telling anyone else how to follow the Brewers or any team, but, for me, the game is more fun as an exercise in moments, good and bad. Today, we get more moments. I'm glad for that.

 

As for the game, the Braves have been the better team, despite a few mistakes on the bases especially. This is the lowest-scoring division series in nearly 25 years with its 9 total runs. Atlanta has 7 of them. Somehow, we're still alive. I feel good about our chances today. But, whatever happens, it's a long cold winter, and time to savor whatever extra baseball we get.

 

Go Brewers.

 

Love this. It's been a process for me to get to this view. Let's face it, I'm sure everyone posting on this board has put a ton of time in following this team over the years. We all have something invested. Quite honestly, sometimes I feel guilty about it for different reasons. There will be disappointment whenever it ends, outside a WS win. As a fan, there's nothing quite like of the anticipation of an elimination game. Unfortunately the Brewers now have to win two in a row to advance but IF they can do it, would you wish it any other way? Bring it back home and win it in Milwaukee!

 

It only takes a single AB, pitch or moment to change the whole outlook of a series. So far, it's gone Atlanta's way. Morton on short rest, I honestly believe favors the Brewers. There's pressure on Atlanta to finish this out as much as there is on the Brewers to extend it.

For me personally, I love the fact we’re approaching mid-October and still get to passionately care about baseball. It’s the years where indifference sets in by August that are forgettable and less enjoyable for me.

[jonescm128]

With the righty Morton on the mound today and the fact the crew just isn't hitting right now, it's time to shake up the lineup...sticking with the L-R theme CC seemingly likes to use, I'd do something like this:

 

1. Wong-2B

2. Cain-CF

3. Escobar-3B

4. Adames-SS

5. Tellez-1B

6. Garcia-RF

7. Yelich-LF

8. Narvaez-C

9. Lauer-P

 

I like the mixup but this isn't going to happen. No way will they ever bat Yelich that low and I don't think Counsell will throw in a huge shakeup like this in a do or die game.

[KeithStone53151]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/share.fcgi?id=nIQmy

 

This shows playoff starts from 2000 to 2013 on short rest. I tried creating a version of this through 2021 myself but you have to pay $8/month to subscribe to that section of baseball reference and I'm way too cheap for that.

[KeithStone53151]

Pearl boy in the lineup today against a lefty. That's a bit nerve-wracking...

[Patrick425]

I feel like one of the only possible concerns about Lauer pitching today would be his last start in the regular season, but that game had zero meaning for the Brewers and I think this concern is offset (or maybe more than offset) by the concern of how pitching on short rest would effect Burns. If you discount that last game, since June 26th, Lauer has 1.78 ERA. If you include that last start it's 2.23. Like someone said earlier, this is not like pitching Suppan over Burns. Statistically, Lauer would have been our number 2 starting pitcher, behind Miley, in 2018. I have no issues with the decision to start him today.

[HarveysWBs]

Pearl boy in the lineup today against a lefty. That's a bit nerve-wracking...

Good. His rampage needs to be ended, and there’s no time like the present.

[Bravos Or Bust]

Yeaaaaaa, color me unconfident with Morton today. I hate exposing him to the same lineup in just a 4-day span.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Pearl boy in the lineup today against a lefty. That's a bit nerve-wracking...

 

I disagree. It's stupid on the Braves' part. In his career he's been terrible against left-handed pitching. Better this year, but a small sample.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think they did us a favor and Lauer has earned this start. If we don't hit and lose again, that's baseball.

[KeithStone53151]

Pearl boy in the lineup today against a lefty. That's a bit nerve-wracking...

 

I disagree. It's stupid on the Braves' part. In his career he's been terrible against left-handed pitching. Better this year, but a small sample.

 

Statistically it's probably not smart, but pearl boy is a streaky hitter in general. I've picked him up and dropped him plenty in fantasy baseball this year and played his streaks. If he's seeing it well, it might not be THAT stupid. The Braves manager it sounds like goes with his gut/feel vs analysis more often than he should...which is absolutely fine with me.

[owbc]

This feels like the Grisham trade redemption game.

[StearnsFTW]

Pearl boy in the lineup today against a lefty. That's a bit nerve-wracking...

 

On the plus side, if it gets out of hand, you can always dot him.

 

Childish I know, but he has been my least favorite player in baseball for a while.

[Bravos Or Bust]

Pearl boy in the lineup today against a lefty. That's a bit nerve-wracking...

 

I disagree. It's stupid on the Braves' part. In his career he's been terrible against left-handed pitching. Better this year, but a small sample.

 

Statistically it's probably not smart, but pearl boy is a streaky hitter in general. I've picked him up and dropped him plenty in fantasy baseball this year and played his streaks. If he's seeing it well, it might not be THAT stupid. The Braves manager it sounds like goes with his gut/feel vs analysis more often than he should...which is absolutely fine with me.

 

Yep. He's as old-school as they come. Much to our collective chagrin here in Atlanta. The place to start him was games 2 and 3.

[yourout]

I think he was reacting more to the posters who said this team wouldn't be memorable, or would be a "fart in the wind". You are 100% correct in saying that you can be disappointed and upset at a lost opportunity. The point is the old cliche that the "journey is its own reward." Personally, this is been a fun season to follow the Brewers. Regardless of what happens in this series, this is a very good ballclub.

 

Two 100+ win teams will fail to reach the LCS. And if it's LA, it'll be one with a $267 million dollar payroll.

 

As frustrating as the Brewers cold snap has been, it could always be worse.

 

It's a lot easier to stomach when you have won a world series last year.

Or for that part.... Ever.

[folly412]

Pearl boy in the lineup today against a lefty. That's a bit nerve-wracking...

 

Hit him. Nothing like a benches-clearing, bullpen-emptying brawl to get the juices flowing and the offense to dial in.

[Nola Beery]

If you build your baseball fandom around winning a World Series, you're going to be disappointed the vast majority of the time. Baseball is the most "journey/process" sport there is. Without finding some joy in the Carlos Gomezes playing on sub-70-win teams, without being able to enjoy the best pitching staff in team history even if one of them goes 9-10, there's just very little fun to be had.

 

This isn't me telling anyone else how to follow the Brewers or any team, but, for me, the game is more fun as an exercise in moments, good and bad. Today, we get more moments. I'm glad for that.

 

As for the game, the Braves have been the better team, despite a few mistakes on the bases especially. This is the lowest-scoring division series in nearly 25 years with its 9 total runs. Atlanta has 7 of them. Somehow, we're still alive. I feel good about our chances today. But, whatever happens, it's a long cold winter, and time to savor whatever extra baseball we get.

 

Go Brewers.

 

I'm going with this.

Sure, everybody wants to win the WS, especially when you have a really good team and a really good chance. But only 1 team does it. Of course, losing is always a big disappointment And yeah it can be really miserable. Hey, this is a 40+ year NO Saints fan here, with more bummers, crashing disappointments, astonishing losses, and crapola seasons than can be told. But if you think 6 months of baseball --good baseball at that-- is "wasted" or "forgettable" unless your team wins it all, well...

why watch sports at all?

[SRB]

Huge props to CC that he is confident enough in Lauer to send him out in a must-win game. I was worried that they were going to push Burnes to go on short rest.