Brewer Arbitration Estimates

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.

 

Seems quite a bit of people consider the entire infield a lock, which includes Tellez. I have definitely seen more than one person call him the 1B going into next year.

 

I mean, as the roster is currently constructed, he pretty much is the 1B going into next year by default. It personally wouldn't surprise me, though, if 1B is a spot they look to get a needle-mover bat. Who knows ... maybe Tellez will be used as a trade chip to acquire said bat? But if they choose to devote limited resources to other areas of the roster (3B, RF), then I don't have much issue rolling with Tellez, or even a Tellez/Hiura platoon to begin the year. I think it's a given that there will be a few unknowns going into the 2022 season.

[Roderick]

Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.

 

Seems quite a bit of people consider the entire infield a lock, which includes Tellez. I have definitely seen more than one person call him the 1B going into next year.

 

Well if money is tight, it might be easier to start the season with him. If he produces, you have a starter at min. wage. If not, that position is one of the easier ones to find in a midseason trade. I'd much rather do that then pay Escobar market rate.

 

I wouldn't mind Yelich getting spring training reps at 1B.

 

Edit: I guess I was assuming Tellez was pre-arby. If he is going to cost $1.9M, I am fine with finding a better player in the offseason, than hoping Tellez is good enough.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Roderick

[Fear The Chorizo]

Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.

 

Seems quite a bit of people consider the entire infield a lock, which includes Tellez. I have definitely seen more than one person call him the 1B going into next year.

 

I think that's the dilemma with a 95 win team that will be on a budget - their largest contracts all seem to reside in the OF, and unfortunately that's the position group that probably needs to be improved the most. That really hamstrings them unless the Brewers want to move pieces of a decent looking infield to help acquire OF upgrades. To me that might be reshuffling deck chairs that won't wind up moving the needle much.

 

The Brewers have to hope Yelich improves offensively next season - they are stuck with him for better or worse, so we have to hope it's for better at this point. If they get better production from him alot of the offensive concerns for this club don't look as dire. He doesn't have to be one of the top 2-3 offensive players in the league, but he needs to be all-star caliber to really make things go.

 

I think Avi is gone and then the Brewers try to bring in another OF via trade or FA this winter that can play all 3 positions.

 

I think Tellez penciled in at 1B is just fine....and if Hiura isn't traded in the offseason he probably goes into next year as a potential platoon mate/DH option (if the new CBA leads to a DH in the NL). That wouldn't just be handed to Hiura, he'd need to earn it - but that would be the best way the current roster could shake out IMO.

[monty57]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

 

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)

Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)

Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)

Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)

Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)

Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)

Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)

Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)

Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)

Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

 

Total raises: $25.475

 

I added the raise from 2021 that the player would get. I didn't have salaries for Peterson and a couple of fringe guys - like Maile - but I assume they got around the minimum. No matter, even if a bit off - the totals will be close.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

 

My guess is you add another $5.5M to the Adames and Burnes pair.

 

That really isn't the way arbitration works. Those guys will be going through it for the first time, and will be limited on how much they can make, regardless of how productive they are.

 

Not perfect comps, but Max Fried and Mike Soroka were first year arby in 2021. They earned $3.5M and $2.8M respectively. Jack Flaherty got $3.9M. Walker Buehler signed a 2-yr/$8M deal for '21 & '22 for his first two arby years. Our own Brandon Woodruff got $3.275 in his first year of arby.

 

For Shortstop, Dansby Swanson got $6.0M. Cory Seager's path through arby was $4.0/$7.6M/$13.75, while Baez was $5.2M/$10M/$11.65M and Lindor was $10.5M/$17.5M/$22.3M.

 

Most of these are one-year deals signed to avoid arby, which I guess will happen with the Brewers and their players. Plus, we had the Covid effects, so no idea how much that may have altered things.

 

With Beuhler and Flaherty (both Cy Young caliber guys) getting under $4M, the estimate of $4M for Burnes could be very close. Adames could be anywhere, depending on who they see as a comp, but if these few examples I looked up are good for anything, I think Adames could be more expensive than Burnes, even though Burnes may be the better player.

 

Whatever the final tally, we have a lot of deserving players who are going to start getting a lot more expensive.

[markedman5]

Not sure what they used for Super 2 cutoff but there is certainly no guarantee that Urias will eligible for arbitration.

 

Looks like he is

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-116-years-of-service.html

[reillymcshane]

Not sure what they used for Super 2 cutoff but there is certainly no guarantee that Urias will eligible for arbitration.

Super 2 has been set at 2 years, 116 days.

 

Urias has 2 year, 120 days of service. Thus, he qualifies.

[djoctagone]

jandel gustave and jace peterson each signed one-year contracts, avoiding arbitration.

[markedman5]

Details on Gustave

 

[djoctagone]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

 

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

split deal for jandel gustave. if he's in the majors, $0.675mm.

[markedman5]

Rowdy is back 1.94 million

 

[markedman5]

Lots of work to do to avoid a bunch of hearings

 

The #Brewers have tendered contracts to SS Willy Adames, RHP Corbin Burnes, LHP Josh Hader, RHP Adrian Houser, LHP Eric Lauer, C Omar Narváez, LHP Brent Suter and INF Luis Urías.

[markedman5]

Woody too

 

[bork]

What about Milner? I thought he was arby eligible?

[JosephC]

Anyone see an estimate on Urias? Based on some super 2 infielder numbers in the past, I'd guess somewhere between 1.9-2.2 million.

[djoctagone]

What about Milner? I thought he was arby eligible?

nope. just over two years service time.

[djoctagone]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

$7.6mm projected for hunter renfroe.

[djoctagone]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

$3.1mm projected for pedro severino.

[TURBO]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

$3.1mm projected for pedro severino.

 

gross

[sveumrules]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

$3.1mm projected for pedro severino.

 

gross

 

Believe Severino already agreed to a contract for 1.9 million, which would be about 39% less gross than 3.1 million.

[stalton]

Believe Severino already agreed to a contract for 1.9 million, which would be about 39% less gross than 3.1 million.

 

Which is not dissimilar from gross pay versus net pay.

 

I've got to stop with the puns one of these days.

[djoctagone]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

$3.1mm projected for pedro severino.

Believe Severino already agreed to a contract for 1.9 million, which would be about 39% less gross than 3.1 million.

you are correct. pedro severino will not be heading to arbitration. $1.9mm reported deal.

[bork]

I just saw that Peterson signed for $1.825, higher than the estimated $1.3.

[djoctagone]

22 march is the deadline for arbitration-eligible players to exchange their salary figures with their teams.

[djoctagone]

these are the players who have yet to agree to 2022 contracts and could head to salary arbitration:

willy adames

corbin burnes

josh hader

adrian houser

eric lauer

omar narvaez

hunter renfroe

brent suter

luis urias

brandon woodruff

[djoctagone]

contracts for presumably only the ten remaining arbitration-eligible players listed above will be guaranteed.

 

unclear if contracts for jandel gustave, jace peterson, pedro severino and rowdy tellez are guaranteed as they were signed under the previous collective bargaining agreement.