Brewer Arbitration Estimates

[reillymcshane]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

 

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)

Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)

Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)

Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)

Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)

Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)

Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)

Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)

Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)

Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

 

Total raises: $25.475

 

I added the raise from 2021 that the player would get. I didn't have salaries for Peterson and a couple of fringe guys - like Maile - but I assume they got around the minimum. No matter, even if a bit off - the totals will be close.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM - Yes

Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM - Yes

Brent Suter – $2.3MM - yes

Luke Maile – $1.0MM - nope

Josh Hader – $10.0MM - yes

Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM - yes

Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM - yes

Willy Adames – $4.0MM - yes

Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM - yes

Eric Lauer – $2.7MM - yes

Jandel Gustave – $800K - probably not

Adrian Houser – $2.3MM - yes

Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM - yes

Luis Urias – $2.4MM - yes

 

Not many questionable ones. Can't see them hanging on to Gustave, even at that cheap number, as there will be minimum-type guys that can give them similar results. Maile is out of options, so he'll be replaced with a catcher who has options ... or Feliciano will serve that role next year. Otherwise I think all the rest of back.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Pass on Vogelbach. I like the guy for a few of his big moments, but why pay 2 million a piece for 2 guys that both fill a very limited role? Lots of raises this year, and even 2 million bucks that could be spent elsewhere. A LH 1st baseman (only) that OPS .730 practically grows on trees. 2 million? nope.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Pass on Vogelbach. I like the guy for a few of his big moments, but why pay 2 million a piece for 2 guys that both fill a very limited role? Lots of raises this year, and even 2 million bucks that could be spent elsewhere. A LH 1st baseman (only) that OPS .730 practically grows on trees. 2 million? nope.

 

My prediction was with the assumption that there would be a universal DH next year. If there is not, then I agree.

[reillymcshane]

The only guys who we could easily let go are Vogelbach and Maile. That saves around $2.4M. Gustave is a whatever - but the savings is minimal.

 

The rest of the guys are pretty important to next year.

 

That still leaves us with $23M in arbitration raises.

 

Plus some players (Yelich, Wong, Peralta) are due about $15M in raises.

 

This countered by some players being free agents - Garcia, Pina, Anderson, Escobar, Boxberger, Strickland, Norris - who's salaries this past year paid by Milwaukee were - roughly - about $20M

 

So, do the math: Arby raises are $23M. Other raises are $15M. $38M total. But we shed $20M in salaries (based on those players' pay this past year). That means our salary total has already risen about $18M over last season. And we need to play Garcia, Pina, Escobar, Boxberger, Strickland and whomever else - or lose them.

 

Will be an interesting off season. The results of the new CBA may affect how things go as well.

[Oxy]

I think a lot of this is TBD until the collective bargaining is extended or renegotiated or whatever. If somebody wants to help out on the dates and deadlines of how all that will work that would be great, although perhaps that's worth a new thread.

[SRB]

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)

Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)

Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)

Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)

Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)

Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)

Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)

Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)

Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)

Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

 

Obvious tenders

Likely non-tenders

Could go either way

 

(Though Vogelbach will probably be tendered if we get the DH in 2022)

[monty57]

According to Cots, including Garcia's $2M buyout, we're committed to $71.027 next year with Cain, Yelich, Bradley, Wong, and Peralta under contract.

 

For sake of argument, let's assume we have a DH and Maile and Gustave are the only non-tenders. That puts us at $23.675 + $71.027 = $94.702MM.

 

That covers one catcher (Narvaez), 1B/DH (Tellez, Vogelbach), 2B (Wong), SS (Adames), 3B (Urias), three OF (Cain, Yelich, Bradley), one bench player (Peterson), all five starting pitchers (Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Lauer), and two relievers (Hader, Suter). So 17 of our 26 players are covered.

 

There are some obvious pre-arby guys in Taylor, Williams and others. If all of our nine open spots average around league minimum (I'll say $600,000 average for easy math), that would be an additional $5.4M, putting us at $100,102,000.

 

This could be a little off, as I believe some of Yelich's and Bradley's 2022 money is deferred.

[bork]

At least Garza is off the books next year, replaced by 10 years of $1.8 million/year deferred for Braun.

[TURBO]

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)

Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)

Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)

Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)

Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)

Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)

Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)

Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)

Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)

Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

 

Obvious tenders

Likely non-tenders

Could go either way

 

(Though Vogelbach will probably be tendered if we get the DH in 2022)

 

Do you really think Rowdy could go either way?

 

I think he is a lock!

 

I think the 1B job is his to lose next year. I'd like to see them commit to the guy, give him half a season full time and see what happens.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)

Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)

Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)

Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)

Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)

Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)

Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)

Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)

Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)

Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

 

Obvious tenders

Likely non-tenders

Could go either way

 

(Though Vogelbach will probably be tendered if we get the DH in 2022)

 

Do you really think Rowdy could go either way?

 

I think he is a lock!

 

I think the 1B job is his to lose next year. I'd like to see them commit to the guy, give him half a season full time and see what happens.

 

Agreed. Anything that they find on the open market at 1B for $2 million is going to be terrible. Rowdy might be as well, but at least there is some upside there, along with the possibility that he might be solid if not decent.

[damuelle]

I’m guessing we’ll pass on Vogelbach. I mean, we passed on claiming Jesus Aguilar and his ~$2.6m-ish arbitration salary not so long ago when we had a gaping hole at first base. We’ve Rowdy and will hope Keston figures it out.

 

I think the organization likes Luke Maile, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we non-tender him and then sign him right back to a team-friendly MILB or MLB contract.

[folly412]

I think the organization likes Luke Maile, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we non-tender him and then sign him right back to a team-friendly MILB or MLB contract.

 

I suppose he makes perfect sense to pick up if for some reason Pina isn't re-signed. After that, got to wonder if they risk Feliciano as the third catcher given he would be in his second option year (and is hopefully healthy). Also not sure what they think of David Fry's catching prospects at the MLB level, but he had a nice year and is an interesting super-utility player.

[JosephC]

According to Cots, including Garcia's $2M buyout, we're committed to $71.027 next year with Cain, Yelich, Bradley, Wong, and Peralta under contract.

 

For sake of argument, let's assume we have a DH and Maile and Gustave are the only non-tenders. That puts us at $23.675 + $71.027 = $94.702MM.

 

That covers one catcher (Narvaez), 1B/DH (Tellez, Vogelbach), 2B (Wong), SS (Adames), 3B (Urias), three OF (Cain, Yelich, Bradley), one bench player (Peterson), all five starting pitchers (Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Lauer), and two relievers (Hader, Suter). So 17 of our 26 players are covered.

 

There are some obvious pre-arby guys in Taylor, Williams and others. If all of our nine open spots average around league minimum (I'll say $600,000 average for easy math), that would be an additional $5.4M, putting us at $100,102,000.

 

This could be a little off, as I believe some of Yelich's and Bradley's 2022 money is deferred.

 

The deferred money thing is always a question to me because I don't know the rules on when that money is "funded." I can tell you this, if Ryan Braun is due a 1.8 million dollar paycheck on May 1, 2022, it's not like Attanasio just writes a 1.8 million dollar check on that day. That money is put into a fund a set amount of time before the payment is to be made, and then (in this case) Braun would get the 1.8 million on May 1 and Attanasio collects whatever earnings were made on that 1.8 million investment. There is a defined limit to how much the team can make however, if the market goes absolutely nuts then the owner gets chunk of the earnings and the player gets a chunk as well. I just could never figure out all the rules involved.

 

However, if we play the "Yelich has 4 million in 2022 deferred, so we are not going to count that" game, then the payroll situation ROUGHLY shapes up as follows when using the MLBTradeRumor's arbitration estimates. Most of the rest of the info comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

 

Yelich = 22 (4 million of 26 is deferred)

Cain = 17 (1 million of 18 is deferred)

Hader = 10

Wong = 8

Woodruff = 7.1

Narvaez = 4.1

Adames = 4

Burnes = 4

Bradley = 3.666666 (you'll have to look at Cots for the explanation of this one)

Lindblom = 2.75

Lauer = 2.7

Urias = 2.4

Suter = 2.3

Houser = 2.3

Peralta = 2.25

Tellez = 1.9

Peterson = 1.3

Williams = 0.75

Taylor = 0.65

Ashby = 0.65

6 more guys at 0.60 minimum salary for 2022 = 2.4

Garcia = 1.5 (with pro-rated plate appearances in 2020, I believe this has turned into a mutual option, and would guess Garcia opts out)

Braun = 1.8 (I thought these payments actually started later, but one source on the internet says they start in 2022)

 

Total above is 105.52 million.

[monty57]

Total above is 105.52 million.

 

Thanks, I'm uncertain about the deferred money thing as well, but I agree that if you're going to count Yelich as "only" $22M for 2022, then you have to count Braun's payouts against this year's payroll. Conversely, if the money for Braun was put away in the years he played, then the money for this year's deferrals should be counted this year and Braun's shouldn't.

 

For next year's roster building, the big thing for me is how many pre-arby guys we'll have in order to fill out the "extra" spots. If we can fill most of those spots with league minimum guys, then we could possibly sign an "Avi Garcia-type" deal. Something like 2/$20M to fill a hole, getting us to around a $115M payroll.

 

If we even have to spend $1M-$2M on a few of those spots, our payroll is going to fill up pretty quickly, and we might have to look at a $6-8M player as our "big addition."

 

Of course, what we do with Hader is going to have a big impact on the 2022 roster, but that's probably best left for its own thread.

[SRB]

Do you really think Rowdy could go either way?

 

I think he is a lock!

 

I think the 1B job is his to lose next year. I'd like to see them commit to the guy, give him half a season full time and see what happens.

 

I would bring him back, but I always find the market for 1B-only types difficult to predict, such as C.J. Cron sitting around forever and signing cheaply, or Chris Carter floating around on one-year deals and now out of baseball. Rowdy is in the borderline zone of being a below average major league 1B. (Not clear that we have any better options.)

[reillymcshane]

Do you really think Rowdy could go either way?

 

I think he is a lock!

 

I think the 1B job is his to lose next year. I'd like to see them commit to the guy, give him half a season full time and see what happens.

 

I would bring him back, but I always find the market for 1B-only types difficult to predict, such as C.J. Cron sitting around forever and signing cheaply, or Chris Carter floating around on one-year deals and now out of baseball. Rowdy is in the borderline zone of being a below average major league 1B. (Not clear that we have any better options.)

I agree about Rowdy. I think he'll be back. Give him a chance to see what he can do.

 

I doubt we keep both Rowdy and Vogelbach - even with the DH.

 

However, I wouldn't be surprised if the club tries to bring back Vogelbach on a minor league deal (assuming no one gives him a major league deal). A bad start by Rowdy - or an injury - could open up a spot.

[Outlander]

Not sure what they used for Super 2 cutoff but there is certainly no guarantee that Urias will eligible for arbitration.

[MrTPlush]

Rowdy is a lock. Even if there is no DH and they pick up a different 1B.

 

That being said I fully expect him to disappoint. He basically mashed in July and then wasn't even MLB roster worthy the rest of the year.

[TURBO]

Rowdy is a lock. Even if there is no DH and they pick up a different 1B.

 

That being said I fully expect him to disappoint. He basically mashed in July and then wasn't even MLB roster worthy the rest of the year.

 

Except for providing the majority of the offense in the play-offs of course.

[sixtolezcano16]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

 

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)

Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)

Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)

Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)

Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)

Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)

Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)

Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)

Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)

Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

 

Total raises: $25.475

 

I added the raise from 2021 that the player would get. I didn't have salaries for Peterson and a couple of fringe guys - like Maile - but I assume they got around the minimum. No matter, even if a bit off - the totals will be close.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

 

My guess is you add another $5.5M to the Adames and Burnes pair.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

mlbtraderumors has their arbitration estimates up. Here's what they have for the Brewers:

 

Jace Peterson – $1.3MM ($0.7M)

Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM ($1.6M)

Brent Suter – $2.3MM ($0.7M)

Luke Maile – $1.0MM ($0.4M)

Josh Hader – $10.0MM ($3.25M)

Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM ($3.825)

Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM ($0.6M)

Willy Adames – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM ($3.6M)

Eric Lauer – $2.7MM ($2.2M)

Jandel Gustave – $800K ($0.2M)

Adrian Houser – $2.3MM ($1.7M)

Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM ($1.3M)

Luis Urias – $2.4MM ($1.8M)

 

Total raises: $25.475

 

I added the raise from 2021 that the player would get. I didn't have salaries for Peterson and a couple of fringe guys - like Maile - but I assume they got around the minimum. No matter, even if a bit off - the totals will be close.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2022.html

 

My guess is you add another $5.5M to the Adames and Burnes pair.

 

That really isn't the way arbitration works. Those guys will be going through it for the first time, and will be limited on how much they can make, regardless of how productive they are.

[MrTPlush]

Rowdy is a lock. Even if there is no DH and they pick up a different 1B.

 

That being said I fully expect him to disappoint. He basically mashed in July and then wasn't even MLB roster worthy the rest of the year.

 

Except for providing the majority of the offense in the play-offs of course.

 

Really means nothing though. Jeff Suppan was once the NLCS MVP, sure didn't mean much for future results.

 

I am not a Rowdy Tellez hater by any means. I was actually one of the people pretty optimistic when we picked him up and thought he could be useful. I just don't think he is some guy we should just be locking into the 1B job before the offseason even starts. I think the optimism in him going into next year is a bit too high.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rowdy is a lock. Even if there is no DH and they pick up a different 1B.

 

That being said I fully expect him to disappoint. He basically mashed in July and then wasn't even MLB roster worthy the rest of the year.

 

Except for providing the majority of the offense in the play-offs of course.

 

Really means nothing though. Jeff Suppan was once the NLCS MVP, sure didn't mean much for future results.

 

I am not a Rowdy Tellez hater by any means. I was actually one of the people pretty optimistic when we picked him up and thought he could be useful. I just don't think he is some guy we should just be locking into the 1B job before the offseason even starts. I think the optimism in him going into next year is a bit too high.

 

Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.

[MrTPlush]

Where do you see high optimism in him? I wouldn't consider venturing so far as to call him a lock for the roster "high optimism". I think most have pretty tempered expectations when it comes to him.

 

Seems quite a bit of people consider the entire infield a lock, which includes Tellez. I have definitely seen more than one person call him the 1B going into next year.