Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Matchup Preview

[DuWayne Steurer]

Starters: Brewers

Pen: Brewers

Catcher: Brewers

First Base: Braves

Second Base: Even

Shortstop: Brewers

Third Base: Braves

Outfield: Brewers

Bench: Brewers

Defense: Brewers

 

7-2-1

 

 

Since you're giving "defense" a separate category (fair), I absolutely have to give outfield to Braves. Soler and Duvall have both hit the ball really well and provided a lot of pop since July. They have a lot of pop in the outfield. We have Garcia and the ghost of Christian Yelich......

 

I'd call the bench a wash. If JBJ is on the roster, he's either starting..... or on the bench. TBH, I like the Braves bench better than ours, but I'll be nice and call it a wash.

[82brewcrew82]

Starters: Brewers

Pen: Brewers

Catcher: Brewers

First Base: Braves

Second Base: Even (+1 Braves)

Shortstop: Brewers

Third Base: Braves

Outfield: Brewers (+1 Braves)

Bench: Brewers (+1 Braves)

Defense: Brewers

 

7-2-1

[adambr2]

Starters: Brewers

Pen: Brewers

Catcher: Brewers

First Base: Braves

Second Base: Even

Shortstop: Brewers

Third Base: Braves

Outfield: Brewers

Bench: Brewers

Defense: Brewers

 

7-2-1

 

 

Since you're giving "defense" a separate category (fair), I absolutely have to give outfield to Braves. Soler and Duvall have both hit the ball really well and provided a lot of pop since July. They have a lot of pop in the outfield. We have Garcia and the ghost of Christian Yelich......

 

I'd call the bench a wash. If JBJ is on the roster, he's either starting..... or on the bench. TBH, I like the Braves bench better than ours, but I'll be nice and call it a wash.

 

Yeah, to be honest these things are so subjective that I really have a hard time

using them to evaluate much. I would guess that the Dodgers would come out ahead of us in just about every category, but that doesn't mean I don't think we'd have a decent shot against them.

 

I like our chances against Atlanta because i think our rotation is better and we're better in the important bullpen spots- although losing Williams hurts. I think Atlanta's lineup is probably slightly better, the loss of Acuna preventing it from being significantly better.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

538 looks to have the Braves as slight favorites at the moment, but the Brewers will be slight favorites in Games 1 and 2 once Woodruff is announced as the G2 starter.

 

Looks to me like Atlanta will be something like 55-45, 56-44 favorites in the ATL games, and the Brewers will be 52-48 or so in the MIL ones.

 

Going to be a tight series. I like our odds if we can split the first two. Brewers pitching depth should help the later in the series.

[MrTPlush]

Game 1 will be a pretty big game for us. Not only will Burnes pitch, but it is also a home game. Losing that game would not be a very good start.

 

It is the postseason though and all about short term results. It is the time of year where the results don't always make a ton of sense. Daniel Vogelbach may be our best hitter or our best start in a series may not even be Burnes/Woodruff. JBJ may be the hero of October with his bat. I already envision the offense exploding for 5+ runs to back up a terrible Woodruff start even though they barely could give the guy a run or two in most of his starts. You can nitpick who has an advantage here and there, but reality is, in five games that may not mean a whole lot. For all we know Devin Williams punching a wall avoided having him implode like 2018 Jeffress this year.

 

Who is hot, who is not in a seven day stretch. That is who will be playing in the NLCS.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Thought this FanGraphs piece was interesting. It thinks the Brewers are the second-worst team in the playoff field, but they have the 4th highest WS odds.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-playoffs-edition/

 

I'm not breaking new ground when I say this team needs GREAT starting pitching to win. But they're fully capable of getting that.

 

It's all so random in October. If the offense can put together a random hot streak, maybe get up to around 4 runs/game, I'll feel pretty good.

[owbc]

Game 1 will be a pretty big game for us. Not only will Burnes pitch, but it is also a home game. Losing that game would not be a very good start.

 

It is the postseason though and all about short term results. It is the time of year where the results don't always make a ton of sense. Daniel Vogelbach may be our best hitter or our best start in a series may not even be Burnes/Woodruff. JBJ may be the hero of October with his bat. I already envision the offense exploding for 5+ runs to back up a terrible Woodruff start even though they barely could give the guy a run or two in most of his starts. You can nitpick who has an advantage here and there, but reality is, in five games that may not mean a whole lot. For all we know Devin Williams punching a wall avoided having him implode like 2018 Jeffress this year.

 

Who is hot, who is not in a seven day stretch. That is who will be playing in the NLCS.

 

Strong agree. Starting pitching is the key to the series and Burnes is our best starting pitcher. Charlie Morton is no slouch, but his FIP is 1.5 runs worse than Burnes, he gives up twice as many HR/9, and the Braves are only 17-16 in games he starts. If the Brewers win that game, it gives them some wiggle room if something goes wrong and still make it to a Game 5, when Burnes would once again be on the mound.

[pacopete4]

This should be fun.

[BruisedCrew]

Given how many Brewers hitters were slumping over the last 3 weeks of the season, I wonder if Counsell might pull any surprises in game 1 to try to find a spark.

 

One possibility would be to start Pina over Narvaez to take advantage of his better defense and because Pina has been hitting while Narvaez’s second half slump got even worse in September.

 

I don’t expect it, but it wouldn’t shock me considering how Counsell turned to Kratts in 2018.

[markedman5]

Defensively the Braves are better by outs above average……. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielding_Team&startYear=2021&endYear=2021&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=show

 

By defensive runs saved Brewers have an edge

 

http://fieldingbible.com/TeamDefensiveRunsSaved

[markedman5]

One thing to keep in mind if the series does go 5…….Burnes will start but Woody will also be well rested……I would anticipate CC using him to back up Burnes or just be the 7th and/or 8th inning guy depending how the game plays out.

[markedman5]

https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-brewers-nlds-position-breakdown

[BruisedCrew]

538 has the Brewers probability of winning the World Series at 6%, second lowest of the 8 teams, ahead of only the Red Sox at 5%.

 

The Braves and White Sox are only slightly better at 8% and 7%. Of course, the Dodgers are the top favorite at 35%.

 

They have the probability of the Brewers advancing to the NLCS at 46%.

 

It’s interesting that that probability of 6% is the same as the probability that 538 gave to the Brewers failing to win the division in mid August when they led the Reds by 7 games.

 

Fangraphs is a little more bullish on the Brewers at 9.5% probability of winning the WS and 51.3% of advancing to the NLCS.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

538 has the Brewers probability of winning the World Series at 6%, second lowest of the 8 teams, ahead of only the Red Sox at 5%.

 

The Braves and White Sox are only slightly better at 8% and 7%. Of course, the Dodgers are the top favorite at 35%.

 

They have the probability of the Brewers advancing to the NLCS at 46%.

 

It’s interesting that that probability of 6% is the same as the probability that 538 gave to the Brewers failing to win the division in mid August when they led the Reds by 7 games.

 

Fangraphs is a little more bullish on the Brewers at 9.5% probability of winning the WS and 51.3% of advancing to the NLCS.

 

Yup, everything I have seen suggests a toss-up series against Atlanta. I expect these to be contested, low-scoring games. The one thing that worries me: should one of the ace starters falter and go down 3, 4 nothing early, it's going to be tough for the Crew to climb back out. I suppose that's always the case, but the 2011 Brewers never felt out of it down 3.

 

If I'm an Atlanta fan, OTOH, I'm worried about the late innings. That's when the Brewers tend to perform best, and the ATL bullpen is decent but not great. Can they handle playoff pressure? I hope not.

[adambr2]

Man, I know no playoff series is a given, but up until recently it sure felt like we would be a clear favorite in this matchup. Now to hear it's widely seen as 50/50 at best for us?

 

I just kind of assumed based on numerous factors (better pitching, no Acuna, etc) we had an edge in this one.

 

Is our late September swoon when we took the foot off the gas being read into that much? I guess no series result would shock me, but losing in the NLDS would feel like a massive letdown to end the season.

 

I'll say one thing, Christian Yelich needs to start having some moments, now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Man, I know no playoff series is a given, but up until recently it sure felt like we would be a clear favorite in this matchup. Now to hear it's widely seen as 50/50 at best for us?

 

I just kind of assumed based on numerous factors (better pitching, no Acuna, etc) we had an edge in this one.

 

Is our late September swoon when we took the foot off the gas being read into that much? I guess no series result would shock me, but losing in the NLDS would feel like a massive letdown to end the season.

 

I'll say one thing, Christian Yelich needs to start having some moments, now.

 

I think too much is being put into how the last 2 weeks of the regular season went to make this appear to be a coin flip series...but I also think Williams' injury really is an issue for how the Brewers are going to have to set up their bullpen during tight games late until they prove it isn't. Seems like alot of people forgot how good this team was when it was reasonably healthy and trying to win - they have alot if different ways they can win games, which is key for playoff baseball.

 

September was almost entirely about treading water and getting guys as healthy as possible for the playoffs - we will see starting tomorrow how things go, but as others have pointed out I don't think what they did in late September has any bearing on how they will perform in the playoffs.

 

I'd call it more like 60-40 Brewers, which to me is about as big of a gap between any two teams for a 5 game set should be - because if Burnes comes out flat tomorrow or the bats go to sleep anything can happen.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The feeling the fans have is directly related to watching a team lose for 3 weeks. In 2018 we went from hoping for a Wild Card to going on a tear to overtake a division in 163. We had to win every last game. The entire month of Sept. was a heart attack. You're on a literal dopamine high when the season ends, and we felt unbeatable. You're addicted to it and want it to keep going so much, that you simply believe it will. There is no dopamine right now. We were on cruise control for 3 weeks.

 

Burnes goes 6 shutout innings winning tomorrow and we win 3-0 in front of a bunch of loud fans, all the dopamine will be back overnight.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The projection systems are not reading into anything, though. They're not perfect, but they are about rosters, matchups, rest, and home field. That's it.

 

ZIPS game-by-game projections has the Brewers favored a little less than 54-46. Like all playoff baseball, I think this result is going to be essentially random. Doesn't mean I'll enjoy it any less or root any more passively, though.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, just about any five game playoff series is essentially a coin flip (with a little wiggle room one way or another).

 

Besides the late season swoon & Williams injury, I think this years team playing worse at home (45-36, +4 runs) vs on the road (50-31, +111 runs) might be tempering expectations a little bit too.

 

The Brewers clearly have better pitching, but the Braves probably have the edge on offense even without Acuña.

 

Brewers lineup will mostly be some combination of Adames (135 wRC+), Avisail (115 wRC+), Escobar (114 wRC+), Urias (111 wRC+), Wong (109 wRC+), Yelich (101 wRC+), Omar (99 wRC+) & Lorenzo (97 wRC+).

 

Braves lineup will mostly be some combination of Freeman (135 wRC+), Riley (135 wRC+), Rosario (133 wRC+), Soler (132 wRC+), Albies (107 wRC+), Duvall (106 wRC+), Dansby (98 wRC+) & d'Arnaud (78 wRC+).

 

While the computers might see it as a pretty even match, and Brewers fans might be feeling pretty uncertain after watching a couple ugly weeks of baseball, the FanGraphs Staff Predictions went 26-2 for the Brewers. Not sure if that is a good or bad omen. Will letchoo know next week.

[BruisedCrew]

I don’t think the last 3 weeks affect my outlook much, if at all, though the team wide hitting slump and spanking from the Cardinals (when the Brewers were presumably still trying to win) are hard to completely ignore.

 

My view of this series as a tossup focuses more on the Braves offense, which was much improved after their deadline moves, and is loaded with HR threats, something that can be very valuable in close, low scoring games. Also, I see Morton and Fried as a pretty even matchup for Burnes and Woodruff. Morton is a veteran with tons of postseason experience and success, and Fried was very stingy after the ASB.

 

My biggest concern and focus will be the Brewers offense. Even if they can’t score many runs they need to put some pressure on the Braves starters and keep them from going 7-8 innings.