Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Matchup Preview

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I’m not going to make a prediction on a series that I consider a true toss up.

 

I am more confident that the Brewers pitchers will do well enough to give the team a good chance to win than I am that the offense will take advantage of those opportunities.

 

Hopefully the hitters can break out of their malaise of the last few weeks. Since September 1 the Brewers have scored fewer runs per game and allowed more runs per game than any of the other NL playoff teams.

 

I’m looking past the runs allowed because a lot of those innings were covered by pitchers who shouldn’t be seeing meaningful innings in the playoffs. But too many of the Brewers regular position players have been scuffling along for the last month.

 

Forgive me, but I'm not seeing the prediction here.

[BruisedCrew]

Was reminded today of Freddie Freeman’s comments a few years ago about Miller Park.

 

Freddie Freeman tweaks Miller Park as 'bad-lit Little League field'

 

The Brewers have since replaced the stadium lights with LED lighting (and both games are likely to be during the day), so unfortunately Freddie will probably see the ball just fine (not to mention he was crushing the ball at Miller Park even when he was claiming he couldn’t see the ball.

 

The games may be starting during the day time (assuming a 3:30 start) but given the time of year and the extra length of playoff games, it will be twilight and then night time before the games are over.

 

Regardless, if Freeman isn’t hitting I will credit Brewers pitchers and not stadium lighting.

[TURBO]

I’m not going to make a prediction on a series that I consider a true toss up.

 

I am more confident that the Brewers pitchers will do well enough to give the team a good chance to win than I am that the offense will take advantage of those opportunities.

 

Hopefully the hitters can break out of their malaise of the last few weeks. Since September 1 the Brewers have scored fewer runs per game and allowed more runs per game than any of the other NL playoff teams.

 

I’m looking past the runs allowed because a lot of those innings were covered by pitchers who shouldn’t be seeing meaningful innings in the playoffs. But too many of the Brewers regular position players have been scuffling along for the last month.

 

Forgive me, but I'm not seeing the prediction here.

 

I think the first line in his post explains why you don't see a prediction. Just saying...

 

"I’m not going to make a prediction on a series that I consider a true toss up."

[Joseph Zarr]

I'm just going to agree with many in here: This is a tough series. The Braves match-up quite well with us. They have a dangerous offense. Pitching is decent, imho, not great. BUT, that can easily be bolstered by our offense which can be decent but certainly isn't great. We haven't been a very good Home team this year. That is what concerns me the most if I'm being honest.

[Bulldogboy]

I actually would not mind Hiura as a bat off the bench if it means no JBJ.

[owbc]

Offense is basically a wash and the Brewers have a significant pitching advantage. Brewers in 4.

 

2nd half batting stats:

 

wRC+

MIL 99

ATL 100

 

AVG

MIL .252

ATL .250

 

OBP

MIL .327

ATL .317

 

SLG

MIL .420

ATL .447

 

K%

MIL 21.2%

ATL 22.6%

[BruisedCrew]

I’m not going to make a prediction on a series that I consider a true toss up.

 

I am more confident that the Brewers pitchers will do well enough to give the team a good chance to win than I am that the offense will take advantage of those opportunities.

 

Hopefully the hitters can break out of their malaise of the last few weeks. Since September 1 the Brewers have scored fewer runs per game and allowed more runs per game than any of the other NL playoff teams.

 

I’m looking past the runs allowed because a lot of those innings were covered by pitchers who shouldn’t be seeing meaningful innings in the playoffs. But too many of the Brewers regular position players have been scuffling along for the last month.

 

Forgive me, but I'm not seeing the prediction here.

 

I think the first line in his post explains why you don't see a prediction. Just saying...

 

"I’m not going to make a prediction on a series that I consider a true toss up."

 

That’s OK. I’m used to people misinterpreting my posts no matter how clearly I try to express myself.

[roadcrew3]

Seeing a lot of posters stating things like the Braves match up well. I would argue everybody matches up well with everybody in the playoffs, all of these teams are good. No more playing the Pirates and Cubs.

 

There will be some intense games but Brewers are the better team and they showed it over 162. Brewers strengths are stronger than the Braves strengths. Brewers in 4.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

That’s OK. I’m used to people misinterpreting my posts no matter how clearly I try to express myself.

 

I apparently cannot read. My bad

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I’m not going to make a prediction on a series that I consider a true toss up.

 

I am more confident that the Brewers pitchers will do well enough to give the team a good chance to win than I am that the offense will take advantage of those opportunities.

 

Hopefully the hitters can break out of their malaise of the last few weeks. Since September 1 the Brewers have scored fewer runs per game and allowed more runs per game than any of the other NL playoff teams.

 

I’m looking past the runs allowed because a lot of those innings were covered by pitchers who shouldn’t be seeing meaningful innings in the playoffs. But too many of the Brewers regular position players have been scuffling along for the last month.

 

Forgive me, but I'm not seeing the prediction here.

 

I think the first line in his post explains why you don't see a prediction. Just saying...

 

"I’m not going to make a prediction on a series that I consider a true toss up."

 

Yeah, my mind didn't see the word "not". Egg on my face.

[tmwiese55]

Brewers in 6!!, or wait that doesn't work here.

 

Seriously, I'd probably guess MKE. I think they get the first two with Burnes/Wood and then it's just a matter of time after that. Not to say Braves are bad or anything or that I don't think they have very legit shot at winning this. We lose one of the first two games and all of a sudden you're in trouble, nature of the short series. Generally I'd been thinking I preferred ATL over Phi but the more I look at ATL I respect them more. Basically, didn't realize how strong their top two SPs have been. No Wheeler level, but both darn good too.

[TURBO]

 

Yeah, my mind didn't see the word "not". Egg on my face.

 

Nothing new....Just kidding

 

no biggie...

[DHonks]

My guess at how the pitching matchups may lineup...

 

Friday, Oct 8th

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Charlie Morton

 

Sat, Oct 9th

RHP Freddy Peralta vs. LHP Max Fried

Monday, Oct 11th

RHP Brandon Woodruff at RHP Ian Anderson

 

Tuesday, Oct 12th

LHP Eric Lauer at RHP Huascar Ynoa (If necessary- either team likely to pitch Burnes/Morton on 3 days rest if down 2-1)

 

Thursday, Oct 14th

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Charlie Morton (If necessary)

 

Starting Pitching

Advantage: Brewers

 

In the spirit of managing innings, Woodruff if going to end regular season with 10+ more IP on the year than Burnes and 30+ more than any other Brewer. I think Tuesday is his last regular season start and he pitches a SIM game early next week to stay fresh. Or possibly piggyback with Peralta on last day of season to get his work in.

 

Not to look beyond the NLDS (NLCS starts Sat, Oct 16th) but in this setup, by splitting our top 2 ACES, Woodruff would be in line to start Games 1 and 5 of NLCS and Burnes would get games 3 and 7 (or 6 if backs are against the wall)

 

If the Brewers win NLDS in 4 or less games, the crew has Burnes and Woodruff lined up to kick off first two games of NLCS.

 

I think they use Houser to piggyback with Lauer or when needed if any starter is struggling/doesn't seem to have his best stuff

 

Bullpen Breakdown

Brewers: Houser, Ashby (L), Cousins, Strickland, Suter (L), Boxberger, Hader (L)

Braves: Newcomb (L), Martin, Minter (L), Rodriquez, Matzek (L), Jackson, WSmith (L)

Braves have a bevy of LHP but I think the Brewers still have better bullpen even without the Wallbanger.

Advantage: Brewers

 

Position by Position Breakdown

 

C Omar Narvaez vs. C Travis D'Arnaud

Narvaez has had a terrible 2nd half at the plate and D'Arnaud has been hitting well since returning from injury.

Advantage: Even

 

1B Eduardo Escobar/Tellez/Vogelbach vs. 1B Freddie Freeman

Freeman is the best hitter on either club.

Advantage: Braves

 

2B Kolton Wong vs. 2B Ozzie Albies

I will give the Braves the slight advantage here.

Advantage: Braves

 

3B Luis Urias vs. 3B Austin Riley

Urias has been swinging a hot bat, but so has Riley.

Advantage: Even

 

SS Willy Adames vs. SS Dansby Swanson

Adames, if healthy, is the reason the Brewers offense got us here.

Advantage: Brewers

 

LF Christian Yelich vs. LF Eddie Rosario

I'm still counting on MVP Yelich to show up in postseason.

Advantage: Brewers

CF Lorenzo Cain vs. CF Adam Duvall

Duvall is the type of player that gives the Brewers fits.

Advantage: Braves

 

RF Avisail Garcia vs. RF Jorge Soler

Soler has been putting together solid ABs as a Brave but Garcia has had a great season.

Advantage: Brewers

 

Bench

Brewers: Pina, Voggy, Tellez, Taylor, Bradley Jr.

Braves: Contreras, Ardianaza, Arcia, Pederson, Heredia

Advantage: Even

 

I think this matchup is pretty even, but I think the Brewers win in 5 because of home field and overall pitching, with Burnes and Yelich being the x-factors.

 

You forgot one of the key cogs to our team’s 2h success, Jace Peterson.

[AKCheesehead]

I actually would not mind Hiura as a bat off the bench if it means no JBJ.

 

If Hiura is on the post season roster I honestly won't even be mad at CC and DS.

 

I will just assume somebody spiked their drink with some acid or something.

[sixtolezcano16]

Braves in 4, as much as it pains me.

[DHonks]

Is anyone else a little concerned with Peralta? Since his DL stint his velocity has been down (consistently 91). I'd consider him the 3rd or 4th starter at this point for the postseason.

 

Also, I'm baffled by the MrTplush and Bulldogboy exchange at the top of this page. It seems they're not counting the days correctly. Why would a short start from Woodruff (hypothetical) possibly prevent him from starting on 6 days rest next week Saturday? Reality is that we'll likely have Woody or Burnes going in game 1 and 2. Doesn't really matter which order, as they've both been great all year. Now if we advance and if we play the Cards in NLCS, we absolutely must pitch Houser in game 1, if not in every game! Something about the sinkers from Houser and Anderson really makes it hard for the Cards to hit.

[TURBO]

He's our 3rd or 4th starter anyway...playoffs or not.

[82brewcrew82]

Is anyone else a little concerned with Peralta? Since his DL stint his velocity has been down (consistently 91). I'd consider him the 3rd or 4th starter at this point for the postseason.

 

Also, I'm baffled by the MrTplush and Bulldogboy exchange at the top of this page. It seems they're not counting the days correctly. Why would a short start from Woodruff (hypothetical) possibly prevent him from starting on 6 days rest next week Saturday? Reality is that we'll likely have Woody or Burnes going in game 1 and 2. Doesn't really matter which order, as they've both been great all year. Now if we advance and if we play the Cards in NLCS, we absolutely must pitch Houser in game 1, if not in every game! Something about the sinkers from Houser and Anderson really makes it hard for the Cards to hit.

Not really. His average FB velocity this year is 93.4. In his last start his FB velocity was about 92.5 while touching 95. Seems pretty in line to me. He's our third starter and will continue to be so in the post season, as he should.

[82brewcrew82]

Woodruff VS Morton

Burnes VS Fried

Peralta VS Anderson

Lauer VS Ynoa

 

Woodruff and Morton are a pretty even match up. Digging into the stats, Woodruff has been the better pitcher but not by much. Fried has been every bit as good as Burnes over the second half of the season but that doesn't mean you get to discount the first half. Again, pretty even but Burnes has been the better pitcher over the longer haul. Anderson is a nice pitcher but his FIP sits at over 4 and a full point higher than Freddy's. Freddy is just the better pitcher by a decent margin and holds an edge in just about every statistical catagory. Lauer and Ynoa are pretty close as well. In the end I think Lauer is the better pitcher hear but not by much. Maybe Houser ends up on this spot but Lauer has been better and I think Houser is the better option out of the pen. I don't think by evaluation would change much if Houser did get the nod.

EDGE: I think the Brewers have the edge in just about every match-up. I do not think that edge is decisive but I do think it is clear. Of course this is the playoffs so I wouldn't expect there to be truly decisive edges between teams at this point so having advantages at the margins is important.

[82brewcrew82]

Hader, Ashby, Boxberger, Houser, Strickland, Cousins, Suter

Smith, Jackson, Minter Matzek, Martin Rodriguez

 

I'm not even sure who the sixth guy would be for the Braves. None of the options are all that good. Smith is a good pitcher but he is not a lock down closer. When looking at Hader V Smith, it just isn't close. This was the most surprising area for me when looking at these two teams. The Braves pen is good and the loss of Williams makes this closer but the Brewers pen is still deeper, more versatile and has the better potential to be dominant. The Braves pen just isn't as dominant as I thought they were.

EDGE: Even without Williams I think the Brewers have the better pen. It the later in the game, the more that advantage swings toward the Brewers.

[82brewcrew82]

D'Arnaud/Contreras VS Narvaez/Pina

 

I have to look at the catching as a Unit but no matter how you slice it D'Arnaud hasn't been very good offensively. Both Narvaez and Pina have been better and I believe we have the better defensive unit as well.

EDGE: It think this is advantage Brewers both on offense and defense. Again, probably not decisive, but clear.

 

Freeman VS Escobar/Tellez

 

In this case, this is a pretty decisive advantage for the Braves on offense and defense. Using Escobar there closes the gap some but defense will suffer for it. Just not much to say other than the Braves are better here.

Edge: Pretty clearly the Braves

 

Albies VS Wong

 

Albies is the bigger power threat with Wong being more of a table setter with some pop. Albies slugs more, Wong gets on base more. At the end of the day, the OPS+ is identical for both players. I believe Wong provides the better defense but this seems like a push to me.

EDGE: Even. I guess it just depends on what you like in a player but the numbers say this is even. Maybe a very slight edge due to defense for the Brewers but this looks even to me.

 

Swanson VS Adames

 

Even considering his crappy start with the Rays, Adames has just been the better hitter and by a good margin. Adames matches Swanson for power but Adames is clearly the better overall hitter and I believe Adames is better with the glove as well.

Edge: Brewers. Like first base with the Braves, I think this is a pretty decisive edge for the Brewers.

 

Riley VS Escobar/Urias

 

Riley has been every bit as good as Freeman which makes it hard to pitch around Freeman/Albies. From what I have seen Riley is good enough with the glove as well. Urias is underrated with the bat in my opinion and long with Escobar, keeps this close but Riley is better than our options.

EDGE: Braves. I do think this falls into the marginal edge catagory but I do think Riley has been better overall.

 

Rosario, Duvall, Soler VS Yelich, Cain, Garcia

 

Duvall hits homers but doesn't do much else with the bat and that sub .300 OBP says a lot and he doesn't offer much with the glove. Soler and Rosario have been better as Braves than their previous teams but overall are right on par with Yelich and Cain. Garcia is clearly the best player of the bunch and I think the Brewers are significantly better as a unit than the Braves are.

EDGE: Again, not a huge difference but I think the Brewers have a slight edge here. When you consider offense, defense and depth, The Brewers unit is just better.

 

Bench

EDGE: Brewers. Peterson, Vogelbach and Taylor are as good or better than what the Braves have on their bench and then either or Narvaez or Pina will be available as well. The Brewers have positional flexibility, speed, defense and power off the bench. i think this is an advantage for the Crew.

[82brewcrew82]

Starters: Brewers

Pen: Brewers

Catcher: Brewers

First Base: Braves

Second Base: Even

Shortstop: Brewers

Third Base: Braves

Outfield: Brewers

Bench: Brewers

Defense: Brewers

 

7-2-1

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Starters: Brewers

Pen: Brewers

Catcher: Brewers

First Base: Braves

Second Base: Even

Shortstop: Brewers

Third Base: Braves

Outfield: Brewers

Bench: Brewers

Defense: Brewers

 

7-2-1

 

This is a very nice breakdown. Thank you for putting it together.

 

In the end, the Braves are a solid squad. They don't really hold a candle talent-wise to the Brewers, though. Hopefully that bears out next weekend.

[TURBO]

Starters: Brewers

Pen: Brewers

Catcher: Brewers

First Base: Braves

Second Base: Even

Shortstop: Brewers

Third Base: Braves

Outfield: Brewers

Bench: Brewers

Defense: Brewers

 

7-2-1

 

A Braves fan would give you an entirely different outlook is my guess...

[adambr2]

I'd give Albies a clear edge over Wong, but the difference isn't enormous enough where I'd have a huge issue with anyone calling it a wash.

 

In any event I think it's just too simplistic to just compare position by position as a W/L. You've got the Braves better at only two positions and yet they're 50 runs better this season. Freeman for instance is considerably better than any 1B we can throw out, and Riley is probably reasonably better than anyone in our lineup.

 

Should be a good series, Atlanta, like any playoff team, will likely be a tough out. Not having Acuna obviously changes things significantly.