Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Matchup Preview

[Eye Black]

Now that the matchup is set lets dedicate a thread to previewing the Brewers versus Braves in the NLDS.

[Jopal78]

Brewers will have their hands full. Both teams have just about the same run differential +120; and nearly identical records since July 1st. (45-31 for Milwaukee, 48-31 for the Braves).

[wibadgers23]

Braves probably have the better lineup but the Brewers obviously have the better pitching staff. Should be a competitive series. Brewers in 5. This Braves team is a lot better than the Rockies team we faced in the NLDS in 2018.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Braves probably have the better lineup but the Brewers obviously have the better pitching staff. Should be a competitive series. Brewers in 5. This Braves team is a lot better than the Rockies team we faced in the NLDS in 2018.

 

This was my take as well. A tough matchup, and probably very close to a coin flip. I'd make the Brewers slight favorites.

 

As a Brewer fan: Freeman is a big concern. Every run is gonna be gold, and he has a consistent record of homers at AmFam.

 

If I were a Braves fan: Can Will Smith close postseason games? Especially when it's likely they'll be low-scoring and close.

[Pugger]

I just hope it is because the Cards have our number because if we continue to play like this we won't get out of the NLDS this time.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think this series will come down to who is better across innings 6-8, and how each team pitches through that part of the game that's typically a bridge to the 9th.

 

Hoping the Brewers' starters can consistently work through 6 and into the 7th most games to minimize the number of outs the bullpen would need to get before handing the ball to Hader. Not having Williams to serve as that 8th inning hold role is tough against this Braves team that keeps coming at you offensively.

 

I think the Brewers' bats get going enough to win this series in 4 - and I think there will be some uncharacteristic slugfests in these games (8-6 type of final scores).

[clancyphile]

Brewers in 4. The Woodruff/Burnes duo combines to get the three wins.

 

The real question is the NLCS. Ideally, the Dodgers take out the forces of evil in red in the Wild Card, then bow out to the Giants in the NLDS.

 

Crew takes Giants in 6.

 

Then, it all comes down to the World Series... and who emerges from the AL...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Pitching rules the day once you get to the postseason. I expect the offense to do enough to win three relatively low-scoring games.

[BrewCrewForever]

Braves do scare me. Lineup is very good. But if our pitching does what they do, we should be fine. We went 3-3 vs the Braves in the regular season. Lost 2 of 3 at home in May, won 2 of 3 in ATL in JUL/AUG.

[MrTPlush]

Grab your brooms.

[Bulldogboy]

The question is Burnes starting on Sat seems to mean Woodruff in game one on Friday. If it was me I would prefer Burnes lined up in game one especially if Woodruff is going to be going on 12 days rest. Brewers have to win the first two games at home despite not playing great at home. The Williams situation does not help for sure. Riley is a right handed monster who late in the game would be a Williams match up same with Swanson and Soler and Duvall. Counsell not having a ton of time to rework his back end formula is a problem to me. Ashby is great but he is similar in some ways to Hader and two lefties in the back isn't the same as having the right left combo. Who plays first base?? I think you have to go with Escobar because how else does Urias play?? That is a problem on D. Unless Yelich remembers he won an mvp I am thinking Braves in 5 but I hope I am wrong.

[StearnsFTW]

I know I should at least be a little worried. But I'm not.

 

Smells like a sweep to me.

[dlk9s]

3-4-4

[A Swing and A Drive]

I'm most worried about facing LHP Max Fried, as he's been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball for the last two months.

 

In fact, he's posted 12 consecutive quality starts since 7/28, that includes two complete game shutouts.

Edited October 1, 2021 by A Swing and A Drive

[MrTPlush]

The question is Burnes starting on Sat seems to mean Woodruff in game one on Friday. If it was me I would prefer Burnes lined up in game one especially if Woodruff is going to be going on 12 days rest.

 

Is it not possible for Woodruff to have a short start on Sunday to prep for next Saturday?

 

I would be kinda surprised is Burnes doesn't start Friday.

[A Swing and A Drive]

My guess at how the pitching matchups may lineup...

 

Friday, Oct 8th

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Charlie Morton

 

Sat, Oct 9th

RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. LHP Max Fried

Monday, Oct 11th

RHP Freddy Peralta at RHP Ian Anderson

 

Tuesday, Oct 12th

LHP Eric Lauer at RHP Huascar Ynoa (If necessary- either team likely to pitch Burnes/Morton on 3 days rest if down 2-1)

 

Thursday, Oct 14th

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Charlie Morton (If necessary)

 

Starting Pitching

Advantage: Brewers

 

 

I think they use Houser to piggyback with Lauer or when needed if any starter is struggling/doesn't seem to have his best stuff

 

Bullpen Breakdown

Brewers: Houser, Ashby (L), Cousins, Strickland, Suter (L), Boxberger, Hader (L)

Braves: Newcomb (L), Martin, Minter (L), Rodriquez, Matzek (L), Jackson, WSmith (L)

Braves have a bevy of LHP but I think the Brewers still have better bullpen even without the Wallbanger.

Advantage: Brewers

 

Position by Position Breakdown

 

C Omar Narvaez vs. C Travis D'Arnaud

Narvaez has had a terrible 2nd half at the plate and D'Arnaud has been hitting well since returning from injury.

Advantage: Even

 

1B Eduardo Escobar/Tellez/Vogelbach vs. 1B Freddie Freeman

Freeman is the best hitter on either club.

Advantage: Braves

 

2B Kolton Wong vs. 2B Ozzie Albies

I will give the Braves the slight advantage here.

Advantage: Braves

 

3B Luis Urias vs. 3B Austin Riley

Urias has been swinging a hot bat, but so has Riley.

Advantage: Even

 

SS Willy Adames vs. SS Dansby Swanson

Adames, if healthy, is the reason the Brewers offense got us here.

Advantage: Brewers

 

LF Christian Yelich vs. LF Eddie Rosario

I'm still counting on MVP Yelich to show up in postseason.

Advantage: Brewers

CF Lorenzo Cain vs. CF Adam Duvall

Duvall is the type of player that gives the Brewers fits.

Advantage: Braves

 

RF Avisail Garcia vs. RF Jorge Soler

Soler has been putting together solid ABs as a Brave but Garcia has had a great season.

Advantage: Brewers

 

Bench

Brewers: Pina, Voggy, Tellez, Taylor, Bradley Jr.

Braves: Contreras, Ardianaza, Arcia, Pederson, Heredia

Advantage: Even

 

I think this matchup is pretty even, but I think the Brewers win in 5 because of home field and overall pitching, with Burnes and Yelich being the x-factors.

Edited October 6, 2021 by A Swing and A Drive

[sveumrules]

I just hope it is because the Cards have our number because if we continue to play like this we won't get out of the NLDS this time.

 

The Brewers 95-64 season record, or their 74-41 record since the Adames trade, or their 42-25 record since the All Star break are all much better predictors of future results than their 1-6 record in their last 7 games vs the Cardinals.

[Bulldogboy]

The question is Burnes starting on Sat seems to mean Woodruff in game one on Friday. If it was me I would prefer Burnes lined up in game one especially if Woodruff is going to be going on 12 days rest.

 

Is it not possible for Woodruff to have a short start on Sunday to prep for next Saturday?

 

I would be kinda surprised is Burnes doesn't start Friday.

I don't see anything about Woodruff pitching Sunday so I think it would be strange to pitch Burnes twice before Woodruff gets his next start. Hope they don't overthink this thing. Lineup your three best guys to win as quickly as possible.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Frankly none of the pitching matchups for this weekend's series will have any impact on how the Brewers line their rotation up for the NLDS, which starts 5 full calendar days after game 162 of the regular season.

 

Unless Woodruff or Burnes pitches into the 8th during Sunday's game (0% chance), there's nothing to even look at with pitching matchups aside from seeing them walk off the mound healthy this weekend.

[roadcrew3]

The question is Burnes starting on Sat seems to mean Woodruff in game one on Friday. If it was me I would prefer Burnes lined up in game one especially if Woodruff is going to be going on 12 days rest. Brewers have to win the first two games at home despite not playing great at home. The Williams situation does not help for sure. Riley is a right handed monster who late in the game would be a Williams match up same with Swanson and Soler and Duvall. Counsell not having a ton of time to rework his back end formula is a problem to me. Ashby is great but he is similar in some ways to Hader and two lefties in the back isn't the same as having the right left combo. Who plays first base?? I think you have to go with Escobar because how else does Urias play?? That is a problem on D. Unless Yelich remembers he won an mvp I am thinking Braves in 5 but I hope I am wrong.

 

He has basically two weeks to think through how to adjust. Additionally, Williams was unavailable quite a bit this year which allowed time for Counsell to experiment with Boxberger, Suter, Cousins etc.

 

Williams is a big loss but I don't think the team is unprepared to handle it

[MrTPlush]

The question is Burnes starting on Sat seems to mean Woodruff in game one on Friday. If it was me I would prefer Burnes lined up in game one especially if Woodruff is going to be going on 12 days rest.

 

Is it not possible for Woodruff to have a short start on Sunday to prep for next Saturday?

 

I would be kinda surprised is Burnes doesn't start Friday.

I don't see anything about Woodruff pitching Sunday so I think it would be strange to pitch Burnes twice before Woodruff gets his next start. Hope they don't overthink this thing. Lineup your three best guys to win as quickly as possible.

 

Well I don't see anything about anyone pitching Sunday...though maybe I missed it. I assume we are going to pitch someone.

[MrTPlush]

Frankly none of the pitching matchups for this weekend's series will have any impact on how the Brewers line their rotation up for the NLDS, which starts 5 full calendar days after game 162 of the regular season.

 

Unless Woodruff or Burnes pitches into the 8th during Sunday's game (0% chance), there's nothing to even look at with pitching matchups aside from seeing them walk off the mound healthy this weekend.

 

Right, it is hard to predict what they are thinking because of this...but I really doubt they aren't pitching guys in some way to prepare for the order they plan to toss come postseason time. For instance a 12 day layoff for Woodruff would seem really shocking in my opinion.

[markedman5]

Going to be a tough series……Fried and Morton matchup well vs Burnes and Woody.

 

Our offense needs to wake up or I think the Braves score enough to win a closely contested series.

 

Hope I’m wrong.

[BruisedCrew]

I’m not going to make a prediction on a series that I consider a true toss up.

 

I am more confident that the Brewers pitchers will do well enough to give the team a good chance to win than I am that the offense will take advantage of those opportunities.

 

Hopefully the hitters can break out of their malaise of the last few weeks. Since September 1 the Brewers have scored fewer runs per game and allowed more runs per game than any of the other NL playoff teams.

 

I’m looking past the runs allowed because a lot of those innings were covered by pitchers who shouldn’t be seeing meaningful innings in the playoffs. But too many of the Brewers regular position players have been scuffling along for the last month.

Edited October 1, 2021 by BruisedCrew

[Eye Black]

Was reminded today of Freddie Freeman’s comments a few years ago about Miller Park.

 

Freddie Freeman tweaks Miller Park as 'bad-lit Little League field'

 

The Brewers have since replaced the stadium lights with LED lighting (and both games are likely to be during the day), so unfortunately Freddie will probably see the ball just fine (not to mention he was crushing the ball at Miller Park even when he was claiming he couldn’t see the ball.