NLDS Pitching Rotation

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I like Lauer, he's had a phenomenal season, but he screams "get cute with matchups in the playoffs and be down 6-0 in the first inning."

[djoctagone]

lots of clamoring for eric lauer to be a key part of the 2021 division series rotation. last year, i concluded that he wasn't even part of the postseason taxi squad in los angeles for the wild card series.

[MrTPlush]

I like Lauer, he's had a phenomenal season, but he screams "get cute with matchups in the playoffs and be down 6-0 in the first inning."

 

The last time Lauer gave up more than 3 runs in a start was June 14th. Actually of his 19 starts, 17/19 have results in three or less runs (earned runs). Peralta has two 4 earned run starts this month...of course he only had one prior to that the entire season.

 

Regardless of who we go with both guys are pretty good locks to keep you in the game and not implode in the first inning or two.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I like Lauer, he's had a phenomenal season, but he screams "get cute with matchups in the playoffs and be down 6-0 in the first inning."

 

Lauer hasn't given up more than 6 ERs a MONTH since July.

[pacopete4]

Sounds like someone should bump the ole Grisham traded to the Padres thread. Both Lauer and Urias have been incredible for the Brewers and their success this season.

[monty57]

I think it is an absolute disservice to Lauer to call him the 'hot hand'. He has a 2.04 ERA in the second half and on the season has a sub 3.00 ERA. In all reality he has had a stellar year himself. He is just easily shadowed because he had a slow start to the year. It isn't like people are clamoring for him after a few starts or even a month...he as been good for quite awhile.

 

Lauer is pretty dang close to a fourth ace at this point. He's been nails for the vast majority of the season, but especially in the second half. He 100% deserves a playoff rotation spot.

 

The crazy thing is, so does Houser. What a terrific problem to have.

 

Yes, other than Anderson, whatever guy(s) we push to the bullpen for the playoffs would be near the top of most rotations in baseball. That's a great thing to have, and even better to know they have some good arms coming up and everyone (except Anderson) should be back next year.

 

One thing to look at in the Lauer vs Houser debate is that one is left-handed and one is right-handed, so who we're playing may help determine who gets a start and who's in the pen.

[BruisedCrew]

The decision between Peralta and Lauer could depend on the opponent and what the analytics tell them about whether that opponent’s expected lineup is better against lefties or righties.

 

I don’t know if there is any difference like that for the Braves or Phillies, but someone facing the Brewers might pick a LHP over a RHP with a comparable record.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

On 7/20, Freddy had an ERA of 2.17 and a FIP of 3.12. Since then, he worked through an injury that caused some crooked numbers and had 1 really great start. Now, on 9/27, he sits at an ERA of 2.81 and a FIP of *checks notes* 3.11.

 

I think you go with the guy who got you here assuming he feels confident in his conditioning and body. In terms of Freddy vs Lauer, one of them was worth 4 WAR so far this season. The other, 1.9. I get the idea of going with the hot hand, but come on.

 

Our big 3 go 1-2-3. Let them know, let the other team know. Its there time to be in the spotlight and this team goes as they go.

 

Yeah, I don't think there's any doubt Peralta has been the more valuable pitcher for the Brewers over the past year. He has better swing-and-miss stuff. He's more likely to put up a big game score.

 

I just think the question is more like: Who's most likely to put the Brewers in position to win a postseason game?

 

Lauer hasn't given up more than 3 runs in a start since mid-June. Peralta's done that twice in the past month. Now, maybe he'll be healthier in the postseason, and I think it's a close call. I think Freddy for sure has the higher ceiling. I just also think Lauer has the higher floor, and that's why I'd start Freddy if we have a two game lead and can afford to gamble and Lauer (with Freddy ready) if it's even.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

At the end of the day, Peralta is probably the one who is more likely to throw 8 innings of shutout ball against the good offense. He's also probably the one who is more likely to give up 5 runs in 5 innings. He's got a higher ceiling than Lauer, but likely a lower floor.

 

Lauer is probably going to be able to give you 6 innings and between 1-3 runs given up. There is no argument that he's been the more consistent of the two since July. But Peralta's upside to shut down a good offense has got to be extremely enticing. He's got the talent to demoralize an offense.

[roadcrew3]

At the end of the day, Peralta is probably the one who is more likely to throw 8 innings of shutout ball against the good offense. He's also probably the one who is more likely to give up 5 runs in 5 innings. He's got a higher ceiling than Lauer, but likely a lower floor.

 

Lauer is probably going to be able to give you 6 innings and between 1-3 runs given up. There is no argument that he's been the more consistent of the two since July. But Peralta's upside to shut down a good offense has got to be extremely enticing. He's got the talent to demoralize an offense.

 

Agreed with your comments regarding Peralta and wonder if that actually would favor him pitching out of the bullpen to fill the innings between the starter & Williams/Hader. If he comes from the pen, he could realistically pitch 2-3 innings in 3 of the 5 potential NLDS games. That would seem to be demoralizing for opposing offenses facing 5-6 innings from Woodruff & Burnes, followed by 2-3 from Peralta, then Williams and Hader shutting the door.

[KeithStone53151]

Burnes, woodruff, Peralta, lauer. That's the rotation in my opinion. I initially thought lauer/houser would piggyback for game 4 but lauer has been pitching incredible the last few months.

 

I'm expecting hader, Williams, houser to be the top 3 relievers used in close wins. Ashby and boxberger are probably next up

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think it all depends on how things are going and how the other series is going and when the next start would be. If the Brewers have a 2-0 lead and it looks like they may be on the West Coast in a couple of days, I'd throw Peralta in Game 3 so I have Lauer on the West Coast early in the NLCS.

[monty57]

Burnes, woodruff, Peralta, lauer. That's the rotation in my opinion. I initially thought lauer/houser would piggyback for game 4 but lauer has been pitching incredible the last few months.

 

I'm expecting hader, Williams, houser to be the top 3 relievers used in close wins. Ashby and boxberger are probably next up

 

Agree with your first line. As to Houser, I think he could be used along with Suter as the multi-inning reliever. In the playoffs, starters are often pulled at the first sign of trouble, so having two guys (one LH, one RH) who can enter in the 4th or 5th and pitch a few innings is a big help.

 

But, making him the "7th inning guy" has some merit as well, as it could really shorten the game if he could be lights out in that role. It might depend on Counsell's philosophy with the starters... will he let them work through some problems in a playoff game, or will he give them a quick hook?

[Roderick]

Burnes, woodruff, Peralta, lauer. That's the rotation in my opinion. I initially thought lauer/houser would piggyback for game 4 but lauer has been pitching incredible the last few months.

 

I'm expecting hader, Williams, houser to be the top 3 relievers used in close wins. Ashby and boxberger are probably next up

 

I don't think you can use Houser in the role of the 7th inning guy in a close game. Would rather go with a guy that has been coming out of the pen in that role all season.

 

Now if Houser comes in during the 5/6th inning and is going well, then he gets the 7th inning. That would be the role I see for him.

[A Swing and A Drive]

In the spirit of managing innings, Woodruff if going to end regular season with 10+ more IP on the year than Burnes and 30+ more than any other Brewer. I think Tuesday is his last regular season start and he pitches a SIM game early next week to stay fresh.

 

I think they use Houser to piggyback with Lauer or when needed if any starter is struggling/doesn't seem to have his best stuff

Edited October 1, 2021 by A Swing and A Drive

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think houser will be jammed into a 7th inning role. I just think he'll be considered one of our top 3 relief options. Might mean pitching 6 and 7 or 7 and 8 on a given night among other scenarios. I'm kinda thinking Ashby will be the guy to come in if a starter falters early.

 

All bullpen roles will be a bit more variable in the postseason. We might finally see hader pitch more than 1 inning.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I like Lauer, he's had a phenomenal season, but he screams "get cute with matchups in the playoffs and be down 6-0 in the first inning."

 

This post screams "I really don't like Lauer"

[markedman5]

"We might finally see hader pitch more than 1 inning."

 

Much more likely that we won't IMO

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I like Lauer, he's had a phenomenal season, but he screams "get cute with matchups in the playoffs and be down 6-0 in the first inning."

 

This post screams "I really don't like Lauer"

 

He's good. But if I had to throw one of them against a top team in a do or die game, I'd feel obligated to go with the higher ceiling guy, whom I think is Peralta. Although right now, I concede that Lauer does feel less likely to have an implosion game.

[monty57]

I like Lauer, he's had a phenomenal season, but he screams "get cute with matchups in the playoffs and be down 6-0 in the first inning."

 

This post screams "I really don't like Lauer"

 

He's good. But if I had to throw one of them against a top team in a do or die game, I'd feel obligated to go with the higher ceiling guy, whom I think is Peralta. Although right now, I concede that Lauer does feel less likely to have an implosion game.

 

Isn't it nice to think that we're arguing over which of our good pitchers is better instead of which of the question marks in the rotation will be the least bad?

 

We have five guys who are deserving of playoff starts. Woody and Burnes are obvious starts, and with the years Peralta, Houser and Lauer have had, they would be in the playoff rotation of most teams that have ever been in the playoffs. Heck, Ashby is probably a better choice than a lot of our past rotation pieces. We get to use solid starting options as backups in case one of our guys has a bad outing, so however Counsell chooses to manage the pitching staff, it sets us up nicely.

 

Playoffs are always a bit of a crapshoot, but I like going in with a solid pitching staff. That seems more of a "sure thing" than when we've gone in with a slugging offense and questionable pitching.

[torts]

 

Isn't it nice to think that we're arguing over which of our good pitchers is better instead of which of the question marks in the rotation will be the least bad?

 

 

the best part is that Chase should not be in consideration for starting any game, and should only pitch if someone gets shelled as a way to save relief arms from having to come in.

[NYChez]

Pulling Houser with a shutout with under 70 pitches makes me think he’s going to get a one-inning tuneup on Sunday or a simulated game early next week before starting game 4.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Sure is looking like it'll be the Braves.

 

Not sure that matters in terms of pitching, but it's a deep offense, so the ability to throw a lot of good pitchers out there will help.

[djoctagone]

corbin burnes for game 1 and brandon woodruff for game 2.

[markedman5]

For those who thought Hader might now go 2 innings in the playoffs after not doing it all season

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-hader-2021-postseason-role