NLDS Pitching Rotation

[rickh150]

It all boils down to pitching both Woody and Burnes two games. One would have to go on three days rest, and I am all for that, even if it means a shorter outing.

 

GAME 1 Friday- Burnes

Game 2 Sat.- Woody

Off

Game 3 Monday- Peralta/Lauer

Game 4 Tuesday- Burnes

Off

Game 5 Thurs- Woody

Edited September 27, 2021 by rickh150

[TURBO]

Lauer

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Lauer/Peralta is a good problem.

 

I would not hesitate to use either out of the pen to help nail down a Game 1 or 2 victory and leave the other for Game 3.

 

The other option is to use one for Game 4 and to let Woody/Burnes/Hader try to cover 9 in a potential Game 5.

 

All very dependent on the scenario. I wouldn't be surprised if we went Woody/Burnes, as opposed to Burnes/Woody, but I would go with the latter.

[sveumrules]

Think Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta & Lauer (if needed) will each get a start.

 

With the way they've handled the extra rest situation throughout the season I don't see them suddenly throwing someone on three days rest.

[DHonks]

Not so sure about Peralta. Today his velocity was down about 6 mph. Hopefully he’s OK and has a good performance in his last start but that’s a little troubling to see right before the playoffs

 

One benefit to Peralta as we know that he has been really effective out of the bullpen in the past.

[Underachiever]

Anyone want to take a stab at how they handle this week? There will be some guys on a lot of rest by 10/8. If Woodruff pitches this Tuesday, he will have 10 or 11 days off before pitching game 2.

[NYChez]

Anyone want to take a stab at how they handle this week? There will be some guys on a lot of rest by 10/8. If Woodruff pitches this Tuesday, he will have 10 or 11 days off before pitching game 2.

Woodruff for 70 Tuesday and 70 Sunday. Burnes for 70 Saturday.

[AKCheesehead]

Not so sure about Peralta. Today his velocity was down about 6 mph. Hopefully he’s OK and has a good performance in his last start but that’s a little troubling to see right before the playoffs

 

One benefit to Peralta as we know that he has been really effective out of the bullpen in the past.

 

I was looking at peralta’s innings count today and wondering if working him out of the pen is a play they might make.

[DoubleSwitch]

absolutely zero chance they throw someone on three days rest in the nlds lol

[adambr2]

absolutely zero chance they throw someone on three days rest in the nlds lol

 

Totally disagree. I don't know if they'll do it, but there's far greater than a zero chance. It's the playoffs. They'll do whatever they can to win every game. If they think they can cut a guy off at 60 pitches and get him back a day sooner if things line up that way I'm sure they'll keep their options open.

 

Ashby and Lauer and Houser I can absolutely see eating up a few innings on short rest. I think they'll try to keep Burnes on his regular rotation but if it's a game 7 and he can go and it's tied in extras then all bets are off.

[Roderick]

I sure hope we get more Lauer than Peralta at this point. Lauer and Burnes have been the two best the last month, and it isn't even close.

 

NLDS

1 - Burnes

2 - Woodruff

3 - Lauer

4 - Peralta (quick hook) /Houser

5 - Burnes

[JohnBriggs12]

I sure hope we get more Lauer than Peralta at this point. Lauer and Burnes have been the two best the last month, and it isn't even close.

 

NLDS

1 - Burnes

2 - Woodruff

3 - Lauer

4 - Peralta (quick hook) /Houser

5 - Burnes

 

 

Oh it's close. Houser has a 1.80 ERA and a1.00 WHIP in September and he handcuffed the Cardinals in both starts against them allowing 1 earned run in 15 innings. He lost focus against the Cubs (but who wouldn't?). Burnes' September ERA is 2.42.

 

Peralta dominated Tigers 3 starts ago and you can't rule him out but if he does start, he probably has the shortest leash. Woodruff's two starts prior to his latest gem against the red hot Cardinals weren't particularly sharp. But he's capable of dominating and he has the most postseason experience.

 

Bottom line is they have 5 starters but will likely only use 4 and that could change series to series.

[wallus]

1. Woodruff

2. Burnes

3. Houser/Lauer/Bullpen

4. Woodruff

 

Championship

[owbc]

It seems pretty straightforward to me. There's no way in a million years that the game 1 starter is not the guy who just had one of the best statistical seasons since Pedro Martinez. Also, if anyone pitches on 3 days rest it means we're in desperation mode.

 

Burnes

Woodruff

Peralta/Houser

Lauer /Houser (if he doesn't pitch G3)

Burnes (Woodruff available in relief)

 

Ideal scenario is Brewers in 4 or less, then Burnes is lined up for game 1 of the NLCS.

[Patrick425]

I sure hope we get more Lauer than Peralta at this point. Lauer and Burnes have been the two best the last month, and it isn't even close.

 

NLDS

1 - Burnes

2 - Woodruff

3 - Lauer

4 - Peralta (quick hook) /Houser

5 - Burnes

 

 

I think it's difficult to have a short leash with Peralta. His first inning is clearly his worst inning. 5.33 ERA in the first inning vs. 2.22 in all other innings. Not sure that changes if he comes out of the bullpen. Seems like it takes him an inning to get loose and/or into a rhythm. I'm guessing there is some site that might show this (not sure what site that is), but I would be curious as to what his average fastball velocity is in his first inning vs. all other innings.

[MrTPlush]

Not so sure about Peralta. Today his velocity was down about 6 mph. Hopefully he’s OK and has a good performance in his last start but that’s a little troubling to see right before the playoffs

 

One benefit to Peralta as we know that he has been really effective out of the bullpen in the past.

 

No, it wasn't. Down slightly, yes, but a pitcher's velocity is up and down all year long. There isn't anything super concerning about his velocity in the last month or so that would hint he may be hitting a wall.

 

That being said Peralta's usage lately (and performance) doesn't seem like he is assured the third spot in the rotation. I think I would go with the hot hand and the guy who has been cruising in his starts down the stretch. I have never been a fan of having Peralta big the big moment pitcher...he makes me the most nervous of anyone. I would then probably have Houser on hand for the emergency guy in either the Lauer or Peralta start, ideally.

 

Burnes

Woodruff

Lauer

Peralta

[sveumrules]

I sure hope we get more Lauer than Peralta at this point. Lauer and Burnes have been the two best the last month, and it isn't even close.

 

NLDS

1 - Burnes

2 - Woodruff

3 - Lauer

4 - Peralta (quick hook) /Houser

5 - Burnes

 

 

I think it's difficult to have a short leash with Peralta. His first inning is clearly his worst inning. 5.33 ERA in the first inning vs. 2.22 in all other innings. Not sure that changes if he comes out of the bullpen. Seems like it takes him an inning to get loose and/or into a rhythm. I'm guessing there is some site that might show this (not sure what site that is), but I would be curious as to what his average fastball velocity is in his first inning vs. all other innings.

 

Looks like Freddy's fastball velocity in the first through fourth innings has been pretty consistent this year and then sees a slight jump once he gets to the 5th/6th innings...

 

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=642547&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=inning&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2021&endDate=09/27/2021

 

Clicking through Brooks other tabs it looks like it might be more of a location issue with 10.25% & 10.34% "grooved" fastballs in the first two innings compared to 8.74%, 9.90%, 7.59% and 9.02% "grooved" fastballs in innings three through six...

 

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=642547&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=inning&minmax=ci&var=bway&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2021&endDate=09/27/2021

[sveumrules]

Not so sure about Peralta. Today his velocity was down about 6 mph. Hopefully he’s OK and has a good performance in his last start but that’s a little troubling to see right before the playoffs

 

One benefit to Peralta as we know that he has been really effective out of the bullpen in the past.

 

No, it wasn't. Down slightly, yes, but a pitcher's velocity is up and down all year long. There isn't anything super concerning about his velocity in the last month or so that would hint he may be hitting a wall.

 

Yeah, not sure where the 6 MPH is coming from.

 

FanGraphs has Freddy's average fastball at 93.4 MPH on the season and he was at 92.4 MPH yesterday...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/freddy-peralta/18679/game-log?type=6&gds=&gde=&season=&position=P

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Maybe the 6 mph is peak? I have seen Freddy throw 95-96, and a couple of his FBs were 90-91. I'm not worried about it, but maybe that's what DHonks meant.

 

I'm with others in that Freddy makes me more nervous than he probably should. His delivery with the toe-taps just seems unsustainable and like it makes him more wild and therefore inconsistent.

 

He's a very good pitcher. A really good guy to have on the hill in a game 3 with a 2-0 lead. Then again, so's Lauer.

 

Put it this way: if the baseline is 3 runs in 6 innings, I think Freddy's got a higher standard deviation. I'd expect Lauer to hit 2 runs in about 5-6 most of the time. Freddy wouldn't surprise me if he gave up 4 in 4 or threw 8 scoreless. Just a wider confidence interval, which is maybe why I'd lean Freddy up 2-0 and throw Lauer at 1-1. If we're down 0-2, I'm bullpening like crazy. Strickland, Cousins, Williams, Hader, with Ashby/Freddy/Lauer/Houser all available for no more than an inning or two.

[rickh150]

Lauer/Peralta is a good problem.

 

I would not hesitate to use either out of the pen to help nail down a Game 1 or 2 victory and leave the other for Game 3.

 

The other option is to use one for Game 4 and to let Woody/Burnes/Hader try to cover 9 in a potential Game 5.

 

All very dependent on the scenario. I wouldn't be surprised if we went Woody/Burnes, as opposed to Burnes/Woody, but I would go with the latter.

 

Good points….

I like your Lauer/Peralta idea. I like the Game 5 idea too. However, I can’t get excited about our 4th best option SP on the road in a potential exit game when Burnes could pitch on short rest. In my mind, he has been sat/rested all year SO THAT he could pitch on short rest in the playoffs. Oh, and Hader/Williams can throw a few more pitches too in the 7th/8th.

[thebruce44]

On 7/20, Freddy had an ERA of 2.17 and a FIP of 3.12. Since then, he worked through an injury that caused some crooked numbers and had 1 really great start. Now, on 9/27, he sits at an ERA of 2.81 and a FIP of *checks notes* 3.11.

 

I think you go with the guy who got you here assuming he feels confident in his conditioning and body. In terms of Freddy vs Lauer, one of them was worth 4 WAR so far this season. The other, 1.9. I get the idea of going with the hot hand, but come on.

 

Our big 3 go 1-2-3. Let them know, let the other team know. Its there time to be in the spotlight and this team goes as they go.

[NYChez]

I had forgotten that the Brewer rotation was such a mess at the end of last season that Brent Suter was their game 1 starter in LA.

[MrTPlush]

I think it is an absolute disservice to Lauer to call him the 'hot hand'. He has a 2.04 ERA in the second half and on the season has a sub 3.00 ERA. In all reality he has had a stellar year himself. He is just easily shadowed because he had a slow start to the year. It isn't like people are clamoring for him after a few starts or even a month...he as been good for quite awhile.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think it is an absolute disservice to Lauer to call him the 'hot hand'. He has a 2.04 ERA in the second half and on the season has a sub 3.00 ERA. In all reality he has had a stellar year himself. He is just easily shadowed because he had a slow start to the year. It isn't like people are clamoring for him after a few starts or even a month...he as been good for quite awhile.

 

Lauer is pretty dang close to a fourth ace at this point. He's been nails for the vast majority of the season, but especially in the second half. He 100% deserves a playoff rotation spot.

 

The crazy thing is, so does Houser. What a terrific problem to have.

[Zad Fnark]

Lauer tends to kill NL West teams too -- especially the Dodgers.