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2021-09-24: Mets (Megill) at Brewers (Lauer) [Brewers win, 5-1 -- Lauer gives the Crew 6.2 solid innings; Wong, Adames, & Yelich each homer]

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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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If it comes down to a dodgers Cardinals wild card game I may have to rethink my wanting the dodgers to lose no matter what.

Right now the Cardinals have the scariest lineup in baseball.

Goldschmidt by himself is better than anyone on the Brewers roster by a substantial amount.

 

Yah, no thanks. The Dodgers rotation is disturbingly good and their entire line up is simply insane. Why are you scared of one batter, who by the way, wasn't even the best hitter on his team this year by OPS? And what on earth does it even mean for him to be better than anyone on our roster by a substantial amount? I would, easily, take Woodruff/Peralta/OR Burnes over Goldy every day of the week....especially in the postseason.

 

There is absolutely no logical argument for preferring the Cardinals over the Dodgers UNLESS you really believe in the hot team entering the postseason (which it is too soon to really call a team going into the postseason hot). Which the Dodgers probably go into the postseason 'hot' too anyway. The Dodgers are just flat out better than than the Cardinals by a wide margin, even the Brewers are way better despite short term memory results.

 

The sad truth is that either of those 2 teams team has a better batting line-up than we have. We too often need to pull a rabbit out of the hat, those guys have more rabbits than hats. I'll gladly reconsider that if someone shows me the numbers that I am too lazy to look up.

 

I think it is debatable if the Cardinals having a better line up. I think short term memory is skewing your thoughts there. Honestly I think our line up is simply better, not by much...but certainly better. Now the Dodgers Yah, their line up is definitely better and their pitching has certainly performed better. Of course we have the pitchers to go toe to toe with them.

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TURBO Nashville Sounds

TURBO

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Taylor hits two dingers yesterday, and rides the bench today.

 

Laughably predictable.

 

Can any of you stat guys look up how often a Brewers player has hit 2 homers in a game, then been benched the following game?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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People have often criticized the 'Wall of Honor' and have called it ridiculous. Yet you watch guys like Gallardo come back and almost come to tears talking about the impact the organization had. Then Gomez thanking guys like Roenicke for his career really brings in to perspective the worthiness of having it has. It has been really cool to see most of these players inducted return for such a trivial induction, really shows how happy and thankful they were for their time here.

 

I love this stuff. The best thing about Brewers baseball over the last decade is that there seems to be a lot of really good guys that loved being Brewers. It’s been a lot of fun.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Oxy ACL Brewers

Oxy

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I've always heard that, no matter how many times you toss the coin, the odds for the next toss are still 50-50.

 

Actually, one needs to know the exact pre-flip probability before saying that the odds are 50/50. In real life, knowing the exact pre-flip probability is much harder than it sounds in theoretical math land. In theoretical math land, one just says "assume that this coin is fair and has a 50% of landing on a heads or a tail on any individual flip." In that land if I flip a coin and it turns up heads 23 straight times, I throw my hands up and go "WOW, what are the odds of that happening..well the odds are 1 in 2 to the 23rd power!!! That's an amazing statistical anomaly!!"

 

In real life land, by somewhere between the 6th and the 8th straight "heads" outcome, an observer starts to think that the original assumption of a "fair, 50-50 coin" might not actually be true...by the 15th straight heads call they are REALLY sure the original assumption was false. So, the more you toss a coin that doesn't show a 50/50 outcome, the less likely it is that the coin is a fair 50/50 coin. That's hard to think about though...

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adambr2 All-Star

adambr2

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Cardinals already up 3-0 on the Cubs in game 2 for Pete’s sake.

 

I will await the go ahead from the panic police but until then I think 99.8% is the current number being thrown around.

 

I always wonder how much the percentages account for momentum, if at all. I can't tell you how many times I've been following a sports GameDay and seen a 75-80% chance of winning and laughed as it plummeted to the other side.

 

Anyway, we're not really in "panic" territory unless we go into the final series still having not clinched, but pretty much every historic collapse in sports history started with a very high probability on one side.

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Nola Beery College Ball

Nola Beery

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Cardinals already up 3-0 on the Cubs in game 2 for Pete’s sake.

[sarcasm]Good thing these are meaningless games.[/sarcasm]

 

If the Brewers play like they should, they are.

Meanwhile, walks and shabby defense by the Brewers. Inning should be over. But it ain't. Fundamentally poor.

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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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Cardinals already up 3-0 on the Cubs in game 2 for Pete’s sake.

 

I will await the go ahead from the panic police but until then I think 99.8% is the current number being thrown around.

 

I always wonder how much the percentages account for momentum, if at all. I can't tell you how many times I've been following a sports GameDay and seen a 75-80% chance of winning and laughed as it plummeted to the other side.

 

Anyway, we're not really in "panic" territory unless we go into the final series still having not clinched, but pretty much every historic collapse in sports history started with a very high probability on one side.

 

No, because this really isn't quantifiable and past success in the form of a hot streak doesn't really equal future results being the same.

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