2021-09-24: Mets (Megill) at Brewers (Lauer) [Brewers win, 5-1 -- Lauer gives the Crew 6.2 solid innings; Wong, Adames, & Yelich each homer]

[Eye Black]

 

 

Eric Lauer: Batter (Mets) vs Pitching Stats

 

Tylor Megill: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats

 

 

Statcast Game Preview for Mets-Brewers

 

Statcast Game Feed for Mets-Brewers

[Eye Black]

Eric Lauer has obviously been very good this year. Previously some of these Mets hitters have fared well against Lauer over very small samples…

 

Michael Conforto: 4-for-4, HR

Kevin Pillar: 3-for-6, 2 HRs

Jose Peraza: 5-for-10, 2B

Javier Baez: 3-for-5, HR, BB

J.D. Davis: 1-for-1, 2B, BB

Pete Alonso: 1-for-1, BB

[MrTPlush]

Megill is coming off an extended lay off after a 3.0/6 run pounding from the Cardinals. He did throw 5 innings of 1 run ball against Milwaukee back on July 5th. However, he was generally pitching pretty good back then. Since the start of August a bit more inconsistent.

 

For the out of town scoreboard

 

Cardinals (J.A. Happ 6.02 ERA) at Cubs (Justin Steele 4.20 ERA) - 1:20 PM

 

Cardinals (Jack Flaherty 3.08 ERA) at Cubs (Zach Davies 5.49 ERA) - 7:05 PM

 

 

Surprised they have Flaherty going in the second game as he has not started a game in a month. Not sure who their piggyback pitcher is today. Potentially a real stressor on the Cardinals bullpen for the rest of the weekend. Doubleheader, Flaherty likely on a limited pitch count, and J.A. who is both terrible and hasn't throw 6 innings in over a month.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Mets have been circling the drain, going 2-8 in their last 10 games to all but eliminate them from postseason contention. The Brewers have a prime opportunity here for a "get right" series.

[BruisedCrew]

Because the doubleheader games are only 7 innings pitching Flaherty in one of them makes sense. He can go 3 innings and then turn it over to a couple of relievers.

 

The doubleheader could stress the Cardinals bullpen, but they should be in decent shape because they had no stress on Wednesday and didn’t have to use all of their top relievers yesterday.

 

If the Cubs are going to win a game against the Cardinals they’re probably going to need to score a lot of runs, something they are capable of doing. I don’t see them winning 2-1.

[BruisedCrew]

Unless I misread it, I thought the Brewers originally had Burnes going tonight and Lauer tomorrow. Maybe I just assumed it because that would have kept things in order.

 

I wonder what the reason is for flipping Lauer ahead of Burnes, giving Burnes a full week in between starts. I was hoping that Burnes would be available for Thursday against the Cardinals in case the magic number is still 2 or 3, in which case a win over the Cardinals would be more useful than a win over the Dodgers. If Counsell wants to pitch Burnes on Friday against the Dodgers to set him up for the first game of the NLDS the following Friday, he must be assuming that the division will be wrapped up before Thursday.

[MrTPlush]

Unless I misread it, I thought the Brewers originally had Burnes going tonight and Lauer tomorrow. Maybe I just assumed it because that would have kept things in order.

 

I wonder what the reason is for flipping Lauer ahead of Burnes, giving Burnes a full week in between starts. I was hoping that Burnes would be available for Thursday against the Cardinals in case the magic number is still 2 or 3, in which case a win over the Cardinals would be more useful than a win over the Dodgers. If Counsell wants to pitch Burnes on Friday against the Dodgers to set him up for the first game of the NLDS the following Friday, he must be assuming that the division will be wrapped up before Thursday.

 

I am guessing they are more concerned setting up their postseason rotation at this point. If they continue to be absolutely terrible they could certainly flip it around. Of course for that to be a worry Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff probably sucked big time between now and then. I get we didn't score much in the Cardinals series, but I doubt we go through those three pitching again and we drop the ball 3/3 times offensively. By Friday I am guessing your concern is irrelevant. BUT even if that concern became worthy he would be on plenty of rest to start the Cardinals game if they wanted so I don't see a problem with how they are pitching them.

[Underachiever]

What is there to set up in the rotation? They play their last game on Sunday, and the first NLDS game is on Friday.

[MrTPlush]

What is there to set up in the rotation? They play their last game on Sunday, and the first NLDS game is on Friday.

 

How much rest they get between their last regular season start and their NLDS start. You wouldn't want your planned #3 game starter having his last start next Thursday....that would be a crazy layoff.

 

In theory you probably want your Game 1 guy on Friday, Game 2 guy on Saturday, and then Game 3 guy on Sunday (this being referred to next weekend). The first two guys get exactly a week between starts and then the third guy gets a week plus a day because of the off day in the NLDS.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I guarantee either a Brewers win or a cards loss today. guarantee. if it doesn't happen...... I'll admit I was wrong.

[Eye Black]

I guarantee either a Brewers win or a cards loss today. guarantee. if it doesn't happen...... I'll admit I was wrong.

I guarantee both!

 

(or either… or neither)

[bucks2281]

Cards/Cubs day game is on ESPN

[Underachiever]

What is there to set up in the rotation? They play their last game on Sunday, and the first NLDS game is on Friday.

 

How much rest they get between their last regular season start and their NLDS start. You wouldn't want your planned #3 game starter having his last start next Thursday....that would be a crazy layoff.

 

In theory you probably want your Game 1 guy on Friday, Game 2 guy on Saturday, and then Game 3 guy on Sunday (this being referred to next weekend). The first two guys get exactly a week between starts and then the third guy gets a week plus a day because of the off day in the NLDS.

Disclaimer: Not a major league pitcher or pitching coach.

Even with the difference between 7 days of rest and 9, I would imagine a major league pitching coach could manage that. After that, it seems as if a longer layoff would be easier to manage, by adding a simulated game in the middle. And if a week and a day is good for your number three, then it could probably work for your 1 and 2. If they were staying on their normal rest, I could see the point of "setting up" a rotation, but if none of them are on regular rest, then it's all "off-schedule" to a certain point. Probably more grist for the message board mill than any difference within the walls of AmFam Field. If they go Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff on Sat, Sun, Tuesday, then Woodruff is not pitching again in the regular season. His layoff would be from September 28 to October 9? 11? That doesn't seem like it is setting anything up.

[BruisedCrew]

I guarantee either a Brewers win or a cards loss today. guarantee. if it doesn't happen...... I'll admit I was wrong.

 

According to the 538 projections you have an 85.4% chance of being right.

 

They also say that the probability of the Brewers clinching the division tonight is 11.6%.

Edited September 24, 2021 by BruisedCrew

[Nola Beery]

I guarantee either a Brewers win or a cards loss today. guarantee. if it doesn't happen...... I'll admit I was wrong.

I guarantee both!

 

(or either… or neither)

Let's go all out: Cubs sweep the DH; Brewers defeat Mets-- et voila: Division champs!

 

EDIT: 11.6% qualifies as "a chance."

[Outlander]

Which is a much better chance than the Brewers losing the division.

[owbc]

I'm was kind of morbidly curious how many more Brewers losses+Cardinals wins it would take to move the Brewers' division odds below 99.9%. If each MLB game is basically a coin toss, the Cardinals need 'heads' to come up in 17 of the next 19 coin tosses. The probability of that is 0.03%.

 

If the Cards get all 3 outcomes today, they would get those odds up to 0.2%, but with the tiebreaker included the Brewers' division odds would still remain exactly 99.9%.

 

Another Cards win and Brewers loss tomorrow? That gets the Cards up to 0.6% of reaching a tiebreaker.

 

All 7 outcomes go against the Brewers this weekend? Cards jump up to a 2% chance of reaching a tiebreaker. Although even then it wouldn't be panic mode unless the Cards also won the first two head-to-heads next week.

 

But forgetting all that, we basically just need one of the 3 outcomes to go our way today so we can relax.

[Eye Black]

Goldschmidt continues to hit home runs, unfortunately.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Well, Goldschmidt is staying hot. 2-0 Cards.

[Nola Beery]

I know it's not OUR game, but....Goldschmidt 2-run shot. I hate baseball!

[BruisedCrew]

Well, Goldschmidt is staying hot. 2-0 Cards.

 

After a walk to the pitcher. As hot as they are if you make any mistakes against these guys they make you pay.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I know it's not OUR game, but....Goldschmidt 2-run shot. I hate baseball!

 

Made possible by a walk to the pitcher.

[bm1090]

Cubs load the bases with 1 out but come away with nothing. Predictably.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Happ loads the bases with 1 down, and looks to be pretty much done. Proceeds to mow down the next two guys to get out of it. Because of course he does.

 

The sooner the Brewers can end this once and for all, the better. I'm sick of the Cardinals, and having to root for the Cubs is insult to injury.

[Nola Beery]

Happ loads the bases with 1 down, and looks to be pretty much done. Proceeds to mow down the next two guys to get out of it. Because of course he does.

 

The sooner the Brewers can end this once and for all, the better. I'm sick of the Cardinals, and having to root for the Cubs is insult to injury.

 

Yeah, trying to root for the Cubs is painful.