September momentum and playoff success

[Joseph Zarr]

The thing that is truly scary is the best-of-5 NLDS. The Brewers are fortunate to have won the NLDS in both of their division title years. In both cases they took advantage of home field and jumped out to 2-0 series leads. How would we feel going into Atlanta or Philly with a 1-1 series split or down 2-0?

 

A 2-0 deficit feels yuck BUT the Crew are just a much better road team this season - for whatever reason - so given either scenario I would feel even keeled.

[MrTPlush]

Their road record would help temper any nerves if they are tied 1-1. I also think pitching always gives you the upper hand in any given game. I think looking at every game by itself we will likely be odds on favorite to win. I would only be really nervous if we are down 2-0 and a little nervous in a 1-2 situation.

 

Funny enough this is probably the best set up for a 5 game series of any of the three mentioned.

[markedman5]

Not sure about the Brewers being an odds on favorite………will they be favored? Sure …..but Braves have a 9.7 chance to win the World Series…….Brewers 10.3…… https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Closer to a coin flip type of thing then anything else……I hope that we win but won’t at all be surprised if we don’t…….Fried is a tough lefty……Brewers have trouble against almost all lefty’s…….Burnes against him will be a good matchup……their offense is clearly better……our pitching is superior…….defenses are close to even.

[areacodes]

Not sure about the Brewers being an odds on favorite………will they be favored? Sure …..but Braves have a 9.7 chance to win the World Series…….Brewers 10.3…… https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Closer to a coin flip type of thing then anything else……I hope that we win but won’t at all be surprised if we don’t…….Fried is a tough lefty……Brewers have trouble against almost all lefty’s…….Burnes against him will be a good matchup……their offense is clearly better……our pitching is superior…….defenses are close to even.

 

Not according to your link. It has the Brewers at 11.4% (fourth best behind Dodgers, Astros and White Sox) and the Braves are at 7.1%.

[Joseph Zarr]

Not sure about the Brewers being an odds on favorite………will they be favored? Sure …..but Braves have a 9.7 chance to win the World Series…….Brewers 10.3…… https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Closer to a coin flip type of thing then anything else……I hope that we win but won’t at all be surprised if we don’t…….Fried is a tough lefty……Brewers have trouble against almost all lefty’s…….Burnes against him will be a good matchup……their offense is clearly better……our pitching is superior…….defenses are close to even.

 

Not according to your link. It has the Brewers at 11.4% (fourth best behind Dodgers, Astros and White Sox) and the Braves are at 7.1%.

 

How are we sitting behind the White Sox?

[markedman5]

I was using the regular season stat options…….it now has it at 9.1 for the Braves and 10.2 for the Brewers so it’s been updated……but still obviously very close.

[markedman5]

Not sure about the Brewers being an odds on favorite………will they be favored? Sure …..but Braves have a 9.7 chance to win the World Series…….Brewers 10.3…… https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Closer to a coin flip type of thing then anything else……I hope that we win but won’t at all be surprised if we don’t…….Fried is a tough lefty……Brewers have trouble against almost all lefty’s…….Burnes against him will be a good matchup……their offense is clearly better……our pitching is superior…….defenses are close to even.

 

Not according to your link. It has the Brewers at 11.4% (fourth best behind Dodgers, Astros and White Sox) and the Braves are at 7.1%.

 

How are we sitting behind the White Sox?

 

We aren’t if you use this years stats mode.

[brewmann04]

They just can’t get swept VS the cards

[markedman5]

They just can’t get swept VS the cards

 

Why? Other then we’d rather watch them win?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Our odds are behind the White Sox because we're in the same league as the Dodgers, I'd assume. There's more chances for the Dodgers to get eliminated before the White Sox would (Potentially) have to play them. Not sure why the odds are so bullish on the Sox in general though.

[sveumrules]

White Sox are pretty solid all around. 8th in runs scored & position player wRC+, 6th in position player WAR. Pitching staff is 4th by runs allowed WAR & 2nd by FIP WAR. Problem is they racked up almost half of that value against the weakest division in baseball this year.

 

PECOTA isn't buying it. They've got CHI (7.9%) with the 3rd best World Series odds in the AL, a decent ways behind TB (19.8%) & HOU (18.8%).

 

PECOTA is buying the Brewers (14.1%) as the favorites in the NL over LA (11.6%), SF (10.0%) and ATL (5.9%) at the moment.

 

For whatever it is or isn't worth PECOTA has been the most optimistic on the Brewers since before the season, projecting them for 89 wins when most of the other systems came in around the low 80s, so hopefully they're onto something...

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[DuWayne Steurer]

LA is the nl favorite as soon as they clear the wild card round. either by winning the division or winning the wc game.

[Eye Black]

From Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs:

 

The Cardinals’ Impressive Winning Streak Doesn’t Guarantee October Success

[Thurston Fluff]

From Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs:

 

The Cardinals’ Impressive Winning Streak Doesn’t Guarantee October Success

 

Good read. It seems like every team that goes on a hot streak like that tend to struggle a bit after the streak ends. Look at the Brewers record setting streak to start the season in the late 80's. It was followed up by almost the same amount of losing shortly after. The Cardinals are a good, not great, team that happens to be on a hot streak. I think the odds of them riding this streak for a month is less than them returning to their normal slightly above average ability they've shown all year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

From Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs:

 

The Cardinals’ Impressive Winning Streak Doesn’t Guarantee October Success

 

Good read. It seems like every team that goes on a hot streak like that tend to struggle a bit after the streak ends. Look at the Brewers record setting streak to start the season in the late 80's. It was followed up by almost the same amount of losing shortly after. The Cardinals are a good, not great, team that happens to be on a hot streak. I think the odds of them riding this streak for a month is less than them returning to their normal slightly above average ability they've shown all year.

 

The Cardinals were 2 games above .500 before their streak started. They were the very definition of mediocre.

[Thurston Fluff]

From Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs:

 

The Cardinals’ Impressive Winning Streak Doesn’t Guarantee October Success

 

Good read. It seems like every team that goes on a hot streak like that tend to struggle a bit after the streak ends. Look at the Brewers record setting streak to start the season in the late 80's. It was followed up by almost the same amount of losing shortly after. The Cardinals are a good, not great, team that happens to be on a hot streak. I think the odds of them riding this streak for a month is less than them returning to their normal slightly above average ability they've shown all year.

 

The Cardinals were 2 games above .500 before their streak started. They were the very definition of mediocre.

 

If we're cherry picking then if we take out their 2-11 streak in late May early June and they'd have been 11 games over .500 when the winning streak started. Both count in what their record is today which is good but not great.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

If we're cherry picking then if we take out their 2-11 streak in late May early June and they'd have been 11 games over .500 when the winning streak started. Both count in what their record is today which is good but not great.

 

Of course. However, I did preface it by saying they "were the very definition of mediocre". The way they are playing indicates that they are obviously above that currently. How is pointing out their season record before going on an unprecedented 16-game winning streak "cherry picking"? They were a mediocre team prior to it. Now they aren't.

[Thurston Fluff]

 

If we're cherry picking then if we take out their 2-11 streak in late May early June and they'd have been 11 games over .500 when the winning streak started. Both count in what their record is today which is good but not great.

 

Of course. However, I did preface it by saying they "were the very definition of mediocre". The way they are playing indicates that they are obviously above that currently. How is pointing out their season record before going on an unprecedented 16-game winning streak "cherry picking"? They were a mediocre team prior to it. Now they aren't.

 

I'm not sure what your point is. Are you agreeing with me that they're a good not great team or are you saying they really are mediocre and this winning streak makes them look better than they really are?

[owbc]

We're past the point of small samples in this season...for the most part (other than trades/injuries) you are what your record is. Certainly the Cardinals have a talented-enough roster to be a playoff team, they are outperforming their +34 run differential, and, most importantly, they have 87 wins.

 

Seattle also has 87 wins, but with a -54 run differential and a roster that nobody would consider to be playoff worthy. Is Seattle a good baseball team? Of course they are, they win baseball games.

 

[insert caveat about how a good bullpen leads to outperforming Pythagorean W/L]

 

Which is basically what the fangraphs article seems to show...the full-season sample has the most predictive value for postseason success.

[SomewhereInTime]

Yep.

[pacopete4]

Maybe the Cardinals will take that momentum into next spring…

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

If we're cherry picking then if we take out their 2-11 streak in late May early June and they'd have been 11 games over .500 when the winning streak started. Both count in what their record is today which is good but not great.

 

Of course. However, I did preface it by saying they "were the very definition of mediocre". The way they are playing indicates that they are obviously above that currently. How is pointing out their season record before going on an unprecedented 16-game winning streak "cherry picking"? They were a mediocre team prior to it. Now they aren't.

 

I'm not sure what your point is. Are you agreeing with me that they're a good not great team or are you saying they really are mediocre and this winning streak makes them look better than they really are?

 

The latter point. Mediocre team with a September streak that made them look better.

 

All water under the bridge at this point. Maybe if they hadn't napped their way through 3/4 of the season, they would have actually posed a threat to the Brewers, and they wouldn't be done before the Brewers' playoff run even begins.

[sveumrules]

Saw this tweet from Kyle Lobner, looks like destiny could be on the Brewers side after all...

 

From 1996-2019 there were 208 playoff teams. Exactly two of them went 4-10 or worse in their last 14 regular season games:

 

2000 Yankees (won World Series)

2006 Cardinals (won World Series)