September momentum and playoff success

[Sixtofan]

Given the recent panic, I thought it would be good to remind everyone of the research showing September momentum doesn’t really correlate to playoff success:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/14/cleveland-indians-los-angeles-dodgers-playoff-odds

[pitchleague]

sixtofan, that was a very enlightening read. It just is really difficult to process it (and believe it) when your team is one of those that is having a tough time right before the playoffs, you know? [heck, the Brewer/Wisconsin Sports fan pessimism in all of us is probably saying something along the lines of, "Yeah, well, the Brewers will probably be one of those outlier exceptions to this study because, well, you know. . . Brewers.)

 

I'm excited for the weekend. Heck, I think I saw there is a possible scenario out there that we could clinch Friday night!

 

Go Brewers!

[SomewhereInTime]

Good post. This is one of the many myths of postseason baseball.

[BruisedCrew]

The linked article addresses the issue of how a team that streaks or stumbles in September performs in the postseason.

 

That isn’t and hasn’t been my concern. I am focused entirely on the Brewers winning the division and avoiding the wild card game. This article mentions the Indians winning 21 in a row in September and a Yankees team losing 15 of their last 18. So, when people say that the Cardinals can’t win their final 22 in a row, or the Brewers can’t lose 15 of their last 19, that is simply not true. Things like that are not completely unprecedented and both are now rearing their heads (and upper bodies).

 

We’re now to the point of the Cardinals needing to win just 10 in a row, which is made even less unlikely than a normal 10 game winning streak based on who and where they are playing. And the Brewers losing 7 of their last 9 isn’t that far fetched given the state of their offense and problems arising in the bullpen, and considering who and where they are playing.

 

If the Brewers can pull it together enough to clinch the division, such as by winning 2 against the Mets while the Cubs stop the Cards winning streak, or the Brewers manage to win one in St. Louis, then I’ll focus on their playoff prospects. I’ll be buying Game 2 NLDS tickets this morning even though we won’t be able to use them if the Brewers get there through the Wild Card game and play Game 4 on a weekday.

 

Sure, the odds still heavily favor the Brewers, but I’m not going to apologize for not celebrating until it is mathematically over, not just “statistically over”, whatever that even means. If and when they do clinch, that celebration will come with a big sigh of relief that wouldn’t have been there if the Brewers had simply won a couple more games this last 10 days instead of allowing their 15 game lead over the Cardinals to be cut in half.

 

Maybe we’ll be fortunate enough to see the division clinching that I originally thought we might see last Sunday. We are going to tomorrow night’s game, and if the Brewers can win with Burnes on the mound tonight, and the Cubs can win one of the three games they will have with the Cardinals before then, that could be the clincher.

Edited September 24, 2021 by BruisedCrew

[Eye Black]

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs (and creator of ZiPS) shared the following on Twitter yesterday…

 

For any White Sox fans worried about the playoffs because the team's been decidedly meh lately: I've found next to no real evidence that late season underperforming leads to playoff underperforming.

 

And yes, that goes for the Brewers too.

 

People get too cute with predictions. The best predictor of who will do awesome in October baseball is who does awesome in April-September baseball with some recalibration for more proportional innings from top starters.

 

Records against specific teams or momentum or who clinched early and who didn't, all that stuff is mostly frippery. If you know the roster available and how good those dudes are, that's all you really need to know in projecting the postseason.

[BruisedCrew]

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs (and creator of ZiPS) shared the following on Twitter yesterday…

 

For any White Sox fans worried about the playoffs because the team's been decidedly meh lately: I've found next to no real evidence that late season underperforming leads to playoff underperforming.

 

And yes, that goes for the Brewers too.

 

People get too cute with predictions. The best predictor of who will do awesome in October baseball is who does awesome in April-September baseball with some recalibration for more proportional innings from top starters.

 

Records against specific teams or momentum or who clinched early and who didn't, all that stuff is mostly frippery. If you know the roster available and how good those dudes are, that's all you really need to know in projecting the postseason.

 

I’m in total agreement with this, including the parts about how teams meeting in a playoff series fared against each other in the regular season (when rosters and pitching matchups may have been significantly different).

 

So, just get there, take a few deep breaths, and then reassess. But get there. And avoid the wild card game if at all possible.

[MrTPlush]

Teams without winning records making the World Series starting in 2010:

Red Sox 2018 - 5-5 record (108 wins overall)

Mets 2015 - 5-5 record (90 wins overall)

Giants 2014 - 4-6 record (88 wins overall)

Red Sox 2013 - 5-5 record (97 wins overall)

Giants 2012 - 5-5 record (94 wins overall)

 

I went off the last ten games because that just seems like a good gauge on how you went into the postseason. Mind you I think yesterday was the first game in our last 10 games...so this script has barely begun to be written for 2021.

 

I was kind of surprised there weren't more. Still, these teams make up 23% of World Series participants. It is notable that only one team since 2010 managed a losing record in their last 10 games and then went on to make the World Series. Additionally, I think the longest losing streak to end the year was 3 games. Now if you did this exercise for how the hottest teams do, yeah, you probably find some more success. But is that because they were hot or because they were just generally that great? I am guessing the later would be more why they made a run. Of course this only looks at the team making the World Series. If you expanded this to the NLCS I am sure there would be a lot more teams. If teams went flat into October I am guessing most expect them to get stomped right out of the gate and not even make the NLCS. That seems to be the big concern around here.

[PeaveyFury]

Sure, the odds still heavily favor the Brewers, but I’m not going to apologize for not celebrating until it is mathematically over, not just “statistically over”, whatever that even means.

 

You know, I've largely stayed out of your continual comments like this, including your 'I was berated for saying....' comment in the IGT last night, but come on, man. In the end, you weren't comfortable with the projections 6 weeks ago, which, as it was then indicated, was your right to believe. You still weren't comfortable even as the Reds faded and the Brewers became actual 'locks' for the division, and now you're trying to do some sort of victory lap, even though they're STILL virtual locks for the division. You can believe what you want on a personal level, but you continually refuse to simply acknowledge that that's all this is. Instead, you continue to challenge statistics and historical facts and have tried to find flaws or twist the data to try and prove that your concern was valid, even though even now it's still nothing beyond a personal feeling.

 

In short, believe what you want, as I've literally said all along. But stop sniping at those that have enjoyed the ride with little stress in worrying about a race that has been virtually over for weeks and simply didn't share your concern.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Assuming the Brewers win another game or two and the Cardinals don't finish on a 20-some game winning streak, all that matters to me is the fact the Brewers will win the division and have Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta rested and ready to start the first three games of a 5 game set against the NL East winner, combined with a rested bullpen and likely a relatively healthy lineup. This recent 5 game losing streak hasn't changed that from being an absolute certainty. No matter how they look getting there, that's alot better "momentum" than having to go out west to face either LAD or SF in a WC game, or then facing the other team in a best of 5 series. In fact, all 3 of those teams (cards, dodgers, giants) are envious of the brewers' current position just based on the draw they will be stuck with to reach the NLCS.

[BruisedCrew]

Sure, the odds still heavily favor the Brewers, but I’m not going to apologize for not celebrating until it is mathematically over, not just “statistically over”, whatever that even means.

 

You know, I've largely stayed out of your continual comments like this, including your 'I was berated for saying....' comment in the IGT last night, but come on, man. In the end, you weren't comfortable with the projections 6 weeks ago, which, as it was then indicated, was your right to believe. You still weren't comfortable even as the Reds faded and the Brewers became actual 'locks' for the division, and now you're trying to do some sort of victory lap, even though they're STILL virtual locks for the division. You can believe what you want on a personal level, but you continually refuse to simply acknowledge that that's all this is. Instead, you continue to challenge statistics and historical facts and have tried to find flaws or twist the data to try and prove that your concern was valid, even though even now it's still nothing beyond a personal feeling.

 

In short, believe what you want, as I've literally said all along. But stop sniping at those that have enjoyed the ride with little stress in worrying about a race that has been virtually over for weeks and simply didn't share your concern.

 

I’m amused that you continue to lecture me that I don’t understand statistics and historical facts about baseball projections in a year when at least two teams, and possibly more, are going to defy projected probabilities of over 95%.

 

Maybe you should explain to me the difference between something being “mathematically over” (which is objective) and something that is “statistically over”, which is how you described the NL Central race in mid August when the Brewers had a 7 game lead over the Reds. Because the projection sites at that time had the Brewers probability of winning the division at about 95%, I concluded that you were saying that anything with a projected probability of 95% or more is “statistically over”. If I misunderstood you, please correct me. But, because there are several examples in just the last few seasons of projected probabilities of 95% not playing out that way, I think that characterization is incorrect.

 

Whether you think my concern that the Brewers have not yet mathematically clinched the division is valid is not important to me. But, maybe you, as a moderator, should take your own advice and stop sniping at those who see and react to things differently than you do.

[PeaveyFury]

I’m amused that you continue to lecture me

 

No one is lecturing anybody, you're just perceiving it that way and continuing to dwell on it. Move on.

[brewers888]

What I don't get is why some fans feel the need to lecture others on how to feel. Those that think this race is over will hopefully be proven correct but its not wrong for those of us who are pessimistic by nature to be feeling nervous.

[PeaveyFury]

Those that think this race is over will hopefully be proven correct but its not wrong for those of us who are pessimistic by nature to be feeling nervous.

 

100% correct, and no one has said anything differently. Not everyone needs to be super worried about the division, and the inverse isn't true either. But, the probabilities have the Brewers as overwhelming favorites to win the division. While they still may not (mathematically for now), the chances of that happing are statistically insignificant (<99.9%). That's simply where things are at as of now.

 

But in short, feel how you want to feel until the magic number hits zero.

[BruisedCrew]

What I don't get is why some fans feel the need to lecture others on how to feel. Those that think this race is over will hopefully be proven correct but its not wrong for those of us who are pessimistic by nature to be feeling nervous.

 

One thing I have noticed over the years is that people who criticize others that they think are too negative seem to assume that those people are miserable wretches who can’t and don’t enjoy anything. In the sports context they supposedly aren’t “enjoying the ride”

 

But several studies have shown that “defensive pessimism”, which involves keeping expectations low and considering multiple outcomes to help prepare for a bad or worst case outcome is very healthy. So, to each their own.

 

When you make a living in a career that requires you to consider and anticipate all foreseeable outcomes, and take steps to mitigate or prevent the bad ones, it’s hard to turn that off in other settings. Here is an article that explains the concept:

 

https://www.thecut.com/2015/12/are-you-a-defensive-pessimist.html

[82brewcrew82]

I am a Project Manager in healthcare IT where risk is literally measured in lives and expectations are always high. My job is to mitigate (really to eliminate) risk by anticipating all potential outcomes. I find it very hard to believe that one cannot shut that off while observing a game being played by people I don't know for which I have zero control, zero influence, and zero responsibility for the outcomes.

 

There is also a very large difference between keeping expectations low and a constant flood of negativism geared toward the largely improbable potential outcomes. That isn't defensive, it's aggressive and I doubt aggressive pessimism is at all healthy.

[rickh150]

I am a Project Manager in healthcare IT where risk is literally measured in lives and expectations are always high. My job is to mitigate (really to eliminate) risk by anticipating all potential outcomes. I find it very hard to believe that one cannot shut that off while observing a game being played by people I don't know for which I have zero control, zero influence, and zero responsibility for the outcomes.

 

There is also a very large difference between keeping expectations low and a constant flood of negativism geared toward the largely improbable potential outcomes. That isn't defensive, it's aggressive and I doubt aggressive pessimism is at all healthy.

 

Your post is negative, by the way.

Just win, baby.

[rickh150]

I am a Project Manager in healthcare IT where risk is literally measured in lives and expectations are always high. My job is to mitigate (really to eliminate) risk by anticipating all potential outcomes. I find it very hard to believe that one cannot shut that off while observing a game being played by people I don't know for which I have zero control, zero influence, and zero responsibility for the outcomes.

 

There is also a very large difference between keeping expectations low and a constant flood of negativism geared toward the largely improbable potential outcomes. That isn't defensive, it's aggressive and I doubt aggressive pessimism is at all healthy.

 

Your post is negative, by the way.

Just win, baby.

 

Baseball is more than a game. We do know the people, albeit not well. Fans directly influence salaries and salaries influence win/loss. Fans influence home field advantages. We all play a role in this team, just so ya know.

[82brewcrew82]

I am a Project Manager in healthcare IT where risk is literally measured in lives and expectations are always high. My job is to mitigate (really to eliminate) risk by anticipating all potential outcomes. I find it very hard to believe that one cannot shut that off while observing a game being played by people I don't know for which I have zero control, zero influence, and zero responsibility for the outcomes.

 

There is also a very large difference between keeping expectations low and a constant flood of negativism geared toward the largely improbable potential outcomes. That isn't defensive, it's aggressive and I doubt aggressive pessimism is at all healthy.

 

Your post is negative, by the way.

Just win, baby.

 

Baseball is more than a game. We do know the people, albeit not well. Fans directly influence salaries and salaries influence win/loss. Fans influence home field advantages. We all play a role in this team, just so ya know.

That's a nice notion, but no, not really.

[rickh150]

Baseball is more than a game. We do know the people, albeit not well. Fans directly influence salaries and salaries influence win/loss. Fans influence home field advantages. We all play a role in this team, just so ya know.

 

That's a nice notion, but no, not really.

 

You argue like this on your Monopoly and Scrabble sites too, I suppose.

[82brewcrew82]

Baseball is more than a game. We do know the people, albeit not well. Fans directly influence salaries and salaries influence win/loss. Fans influence home field advantages. We all play a role in this team, just so ya know.

 

That's a nice notion, but no, not really.

 

You argue like this on your Monopoly and Scrabble sites too, I suppose.

Um, sure, whatever.

[Greenleaf1]

For what it's worth, from a statistical perspective, there's a HUGE difference between something that is 95% likely and 99% likely. That unlikely thing is 5x less likely to happen in one case, 5 times less likely than a 5% chance is essentially a statistical certainty.

 

We've now seen that statistical certainty play out into an actual certainty. The Cardinals have a 16 game winning streak, we struggled a bit, and we still never had to break a sweat. Anybody who is trying to suggest we should've been worried is the ultimate downer.

 

My view on sports is that the second they stop being fun to watch, I stop watching. I can't imagine what it'd be like to be watching the Brewers increase their commanding hold over the division the last couple months, fighting off hot streaks from the Reds and Cardinals like it was nothing, and not take away optimism for how special this team is.

 

This team is just plain good. Previous great teams this decade have been very dependent on hitting, and when a team's hitting struggles (as all teams do at times), those teams could make you really question how good they actually were. Watching this team, with how historically incredible their pitching has been, especially the rotation....I can't wait to see what this team is capable of in October. If our offense shows up at all, we are going to be a force.

[Underachiever]

For what it's worth, from a statistical perspective, there's a HUGE difference between something that is 95% likely and 99% likely. That unlikely thing is 5x less likely to happen in one case, 5 times less likely than a 5% chance is essentially a statistical certainty.

 

We've now seen that statistical certainty play out into an actual certainty. The Cardinals have a 16 game winning streak, we struggled a bit, and we still never had to break a sweat. Anybody who is trying to suggest we should've been worried is the ultimate downer.

 

My view on sports is that the second they stop being fun to watch, I stop watching. I can't imagine what it'd be like to be watching the Brewers increase their commanding hold over the division the last couple months, fighting off hot streaks from the Reds and Cardinals like it was nothing, and not take away optimism for how special this team is.

 

This team is just plain good. Previous great teams this decade have been very dependent on hitting, and when a team's hitting struggles (as all teams do at times), those teams could make you really question how good they actually were. Watching this team, with how historically incredible their pitching has been, especially the rotation....I can't wait to see what this team is capable of in October. If our offense shows up at all, we are going to be a force.

The pitching this team has means that they are rarely out of a game. The number of times where it was over early have been few (And yes, I was at the Brett Anderson game last week). But if your pitching is only giving up 2, 3, 4 runs, you are never out of the game. You may not win, but you aren't out of it. And that is very exciting.

[gregmag]

There is also a very large difference between keeping expectations low and a constant flood of negativism geared toward the largely improbable potential outcomes. That isn't defensive, it's aggressive and I doubt aggressive pessimism is at all healthy.

 

This is it, right here. Relatedly, there's a big difference in a public forum between saying "I'm stressed out about this," which is an expression of an emotion as valid as any other, and saying "I'm objectively right to be stressed out about this," which is an argument. Making the same argument over and over, and not responding in any meaningful way to credible counter-arguments, strains credibility and goodwill. There are no absolutes; sometimes the lone voice in the wilderness turns out to be right. But people in the forum are as entitled to judge your argument harshly as you are to keep beating it into the ground.

 

Turning back to baseball -- as others have said, the Brewers' experience over the past couple of weeks exemplifies how statistical locks work. Their division title odds by two weeks ago (IIRC) were 100% on Fangraphs. Then came about as bad a thing as could happen: They went into a little swoon, and one of the teams chasing them set a franchise record for consecutive wins. It didn't matter even a little bit; they clinched the division with a week to spare. (I'd be fascinated to know the odds before the Cardinals' streak that they would close the gap to 7 games. My guess would be 5-10%, but I don't know at all.)

[owbc]

The thing that is truly scary is the best-of-5 NLDS. The Brewers are fortunate to have won the NLDS in both of their division title years. In both cases they took advantage of home field and jumped out to 2-0 series leads. How would we feel going into Atlanta or Philly with a 1-1 series split or down 2-0?

[Fear The Chorizo]

The thing that is truly scary is the best-of-5 NLDS. The Brewers are fortunate to have won the NLDS in both of their division title years. In both cases they took advantage of home field and jumped out to 2-0 series leads. How would we feel going into Atlanta or Philly with a 1-1 series split or down 2-0?

 

Like they needed to win 3 games before their opponent won 2 or 1 in order to advance. I'd argue those Brewer teams didn't have the starting pitching depth this one does, so games 3 and 4 were going to feel a bit more dicey to win in 2011 or 2018 than this year.

 

But, any team that would lose the first two games of a short series probably isn't feeling too great - regardless of it being home or away.