2021-09-23: Cardinals (Wainwright) at Brewers (Houser) [Brewers lose, 8-5 -- Crew up 5-0 early on two Tyrone Taylor home runs; bullpen scuffles allowing 7 runs]

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

It would be absolutely historic for the Brewers to lose the division after leading the Cardinals by 15 games with 22 to go. They have already blown half of it, and now they are physically and emotionally a mess. They need a win in the worst way to get back on track.

 

 

they are not

[Nola Beery]

I understand all of the numbers. Maybe you don’t understand the meaning of the word “literally”.

They have already blown half of it, and NOW I AM A physical and emotional a mess. They need a win in the worst way FOR ME TO REGAIN MY SANITY.

 

Fixed that for you, quite a few typos on your part.

That's kinda funny, but only because it applies to me. I have to keep telling myself it's baseball.

[phnxcrew]

The one change I would make in response to this is to throw Burnes tomorrow to line him up for Thursday's finale against STL on 5 days rest.

 

That lets you throw Burnes and Peralta and Woodruff and Burnes in 4 of the next 6. If you can't win 2 of those, you got bigger problems.

 

From the current look of it we’ll have a seven man rotation in the playoffs, we don’t move guys up. Honestly, this is another extremely poorly planned facet of this team. You needed to start moving guys up to get used to the playoff rotation. It hasn’t happened at all-you think these guys will magically pitch just as well on 3-4 days rest? good god.

[BruisedCrew]

At this point I think we need to throw the playoff projections out the window because they do not and cannot capture the current state of the Brewers, or the Cardinals for that matter. With 9 games left (10 for the Cardinals) we can easily see that the Brewers need to win 3 games (or only 2 if one is against the Cardinals) to clinch the division regardless of what the Cardinals do. And they can be helped further by any games the Cardinals lose to the Cubs.

 

Here’s a narrow, simple example that illustrates what I mean. The 538 site, in addition to its season projections, releases won/loss percentages for each game every day. For this week’s series, the released percentages were:

 

Monday- Brewers 63%

Tuesday- Brewers 63%

Wednesday- Brewers 53%

Thursday- Cardinals 52%.

 

These forecasts take starting pitchers into account and use the same method used to make the season projections.

 

Coming into the series my goal was for the Brewers to win two to wrap up the division, but I would have settled for one to bring the magic number to one and make it almost certain that the division would be locked up before the Brewers go to St. Louis. Based on these percentages, the probability of a Cardinals sweep was just 3.3%. That’s even lower than the 5% chance that the Brewers would not win the division in mid August when I was berated for not being willing to declare the race over with 50 games still to play. And yet, in this case, the 96.7% probability of the Brewers winning at least one of the four games did not materialize.

[Nola Beery]

 

You’re free to believe the Brewers have the division locked up, but it is not literally true that the Brewers would have to lose every game.

 

They have 8 more wins now than the Cardinals. I don’t believe the Brewers will lose all of their remaining 9 games, to think that is frankly stupid.

 

But for the sake of argument even if they did the Cardinals have to go 8-2 over their final ten games just to tie!

 

Teams simply don’t play .000 baseball for extended periods of time nor so they play .800 baseball for a month.

 

If it happens I guess it goes down in baseball history with the shot heard round the world, as the greatest turn around of all time…. And Counsel gets fired.

 

Was that supposed to be encouraging? Based on the last 4 (or 5) games, I could see us going 0-9 and the dirty birds going 8-2.

It really would be the Greatest Collapse in Baseball History and Counsell would well and truly deserve to get sacked.

Yours truly,

Frank Lee Stoopid,

 

Tomorrow is another day, though.

[pacopete4]

At this point I think we need to throw the playoff projections out the window because they do not and cannot capture the current state of the Brewers, or the Cardinals for that matter. With 9 games left (10 for the Cardinals) we can easily see that the Brewers need to win 3 games (or only 2 if one is against the Cardinals) to clinch the division regardless of what the Cardinals do. And they can be helped further by any games the Cardinals lose to the Cubs.

 

Here’s a narrow, simple example that illustrates what I mean. The 538 site, in addition to its season projections, releases won/loss percentages for each game every day. For this week’s series, the released percentages were:

 

Monday- Brewers 63%

Tuesday- Brewers 63%

Wednesday- Brewers 53%

Thursday- Cardinals 52%.

 

These forecasts take starting pitchers into account and use the same method used to make the season projections.

 

Coming into the series my goal was for the Brewers to win two to wrap up the division, but I would have settled for one to bring the magic number to one and make it almost certain that the division would be locked up before the Brewers go to St. Louis. Based on these percentages, the probability of a Cardinals sweep was just 3.3%. That’s even lower than the 5% chance that the Brewers would not win the division in mid August when I was berated for not being willing to declare the race over with 50 games still to play. And yet, in this case, the 96.7% probability of the Brewers winning at least one of the four games did not materialize.

 

You jumping from the Reds bandwagon to the Cardinals this season is sure something. I’m sure if the Brewers just tried harder they’d already be division champs too.

[Pugger]

It is absolutely nauseating to get swept by that freaking bunch AT HOME with the division on the line. With the way we are playing even if we win the division we won't go very far. It was a nice season but that just doesn't cut it for me any longer. It feels like we are the Washington Generals of MLB.

[BruisedCrew]

I understand all of the numbers. Maybe you don’t understand the meaning of the word “literally”.

They have already blown half of it, and NOW I AM A physical and emotional a mess. They need a win in the worst way FOR ME TO REGAIN MY SANITY.

 

Fixed that for you, quite a few typos on your part.

 

Typos like your use of the phrase “I am a physical and emotional a mess”?

 

I am basing my opinion on how the Brewers are performing, not how they are talking. Physical and mental mistakes, things like swinging for the fences even more than usual, relief pitchers who can’t get the ball over the plate, wild throws, passed balls, etc. carry the signs of a team that is feeling a little tight around the collar.

[DuWayne Steurer]

calling a pro athlete an emotional wreck based on body language that you can perceive in brief glimpses through a tv screen is just a huge leap. huge. leap.

[ecjimg]

Whew - glad I never opened that George Webb restaurant in St Louis!

[BruisedCrew]

calling a pro athlete an emotional wreck based on body language that you can perceive in brief glimpses through a tv screen is just a huge leap. huge. leap.

 

I didn’t say body language. I’m basing it on uncharacteristic performance.

[rickh150]

It feels guaranteed the cards will win the wild card game and go on a rampage. Hate them so much.

 

No way.

[DuWayne Steurer]

calling a pro athlete an emotional wreck based on body language that you can perceive in brief glimpses through a tv screen is just a huge leap. huge. leap.

 

I didn’t say body language. I’m basing it on uncharacteristic performance.

 

ok. you don't know anything about their emotional state. they're playing poorly. it happens in 162 games. if you're right or upset or panicking , cool

you can feel that way. you can't possibly know how they feel.

 

I could buy a statement like "they look like they're pressing" or Something like that but..... ok

[yourout]

While I still think they win the division...if they don't it might be the biggest gag job in the history of professional sports.

[BruisedCrew]

calling a pro athlete an emotional wreck based on body language that you can perceive in brief glimpses through a tv screen is just a huge leap. huge. leap.

 

I didn’t say body language. I’m basing it on uncharacteristic performance.

 

ok. you don't know anything about their emotional state. they're playing poorly. it happens in 162 games. if you're right or upset or panicking , cool

you can feel that way. you can't possibly know how they feel.

 

I could buy a statement like "they look like they're pressing" or Something like that but..... ok

 

I have said that before but if it helps I will officially change my statement to “it looks like they’re pressing”. And I think they need a win in the worst way to take off some of that pressure.

[BruisedCrew]

As difficult as it might be, I really think that for tomorrow night, and then Saturday against 50 year old lefty Rich Hill, Counsell has to bench Yelich and start Taylor in left and Garcia in right. See if Taylor can be hot for a few days. When the team is struggling so much to produce runs, at least play the two guys who have produced the most this week.

[TURBO]

As difficult as it might be, I really think that for tomorrow night, and then Saturday against 50 year old lefty Rich Hill, Counsell has to bench Yelich and start Taylor in left and Garcia in right. See if Taylor can be hot for a few days. When the team is struggling so much to produce runs, at least play the two guys who have produced the most this week.

 

Instead, Yelich will start, and Taylor will be on the bench.

 

Watch and see.

[Bulldogboy]

Brewers are a team that uses analytics. There are no analytics out there that tells you Yelich should be playing right now so the question is why is he?? Is someone making an exception?? Is the owner behind it?? What is the story?? I am sure haudricourt will get to the bottom of it.

[brewmann04]

If this team blows this they really don’t belong in the race. This team needs to win their games to win their division and not back in with losses from the cards.

[brewmann04]

Anyone getting a bit worried about this team.

[brewmann04]

Anyone getting a bit worried about this team.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Sweep the Mets this weekend, and those games against the Cardinals next week don't matter in the least, regardless of what the Cardinals do against the Cubs.

[rickh150]

Odds are we win 2 of 3 and the Cards win 3 of 4, right? That would do it. The ballpark should be pretty full this weekend, as well. The pent up energy should help.

[BruisedCrew]

Odds are we win 2 of 3 and the Cards win 3 of 4, right? That would do it. The ballpark should be pretty full this weekend, as well. The pent up energy should help.

 

This would be the dream.

 

In addition to the run scoring drought, the Brewers now have some pretty serious bullpen issues with Boxberger on fumes and Williams hurt. They could really use 8 strong innings from Burnes tomorrow to set it up for Hader. Not sure who the set up men out of the bullpen would be if needed.

 

For the Cubs tomorrow will be the best chance for them to break the Cards winning streak. They have a split doubleheader and the Cards will have Happ and Flaherty (who will presumably be going only a couple of innings off rehab). Maybe the Cubs can put up some runs. The concern is that the Cardinals red hot offense will hit double figures.

[mtrebs]

Odds are we win 2 of 3 and the Cards win 3 of 4, right? That would do it. The ballpark should be pretty full this weekend, as well. The pent up energy should help.

 

Not sure if the ballpark will be full or not. This has been a VERY difficult year to sell tickets. We’ve had to drastically undercut the original ticket prices when re-selling via StubHub (which we rarely have only has to do in the past) and we weren’t even able to sell tickets for one game (which is the first time that we had to eat the full cost of our tickets).