Future 1B Options

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He has a ton of upside, but it would get very frustrating if the injury issues persist.

 

Voit will be 31 in February. I don't know how much upside is left to mine there.

[monty57]

He has a ton of upside, but it would get very frustrating if the injury issues persist.

 

Voit will be 31 in February. I don't know how much upside is left to mine there.

 

Upside was probably the wrong wording. What I meant is that he has a big bat that could put up big numbers if he can stay on the field all season. He could be a nice value pickup if we could get him cheaply in part because of his injury history.

 

If we could somehow get Voit for Cain, then Stearns would have freed up a lot of money between Cain & JBJ that could be used to help elsewhere. You'd think there would have to be something else headed the Yankee's way, but if it's only a couple of low-level prospects like the JBJ deal then it could be a nice move by Stearns.

[brewerfan82]

Get Voit for Cain+, then trade for Ketel Marte or Bryan Reynolds Not sure what hit the farm system would take, but the big league club would be in pretty good shape.

[TURBO]

Just curious, and I'm on board with shedding Cain's salary in 2022, but if we were to be lucky enough to find a taker for Cain, who would play CF on a regular basis? Taylor?

 

Doesn't trading Cain just create another hole to fill?

 

Our current outfield is Yelich, Cain, Renfroe and Taylor. Are we counting Dahl as our 5th outfielder?

 

This team offensively is just constructed weird, so getting rid of Cain just means we then have to find a real center fielder.

[monty57]

Just curious, and I'm on board with shedding Cain's salary in 2022, but if we were to be lucky enough to find a taker for Cain, who would play CF on a regular basis? Taylor?

 

Doesn't trading Cain just create another hole to fill?

 

Our current outfield is Yelich, Cain, Renfroe and Taylor. Are we counting Dahl as our 5th outfielder?

 

This team offensively is just constructed weird, so getting rid of Cain just means we then have to find a real center fielder.

 

Taylor would be the immediate #1 CF, and we'd have some money to look at adding someone else. I think Mitchell is the heir apparent, so I doubt we'd make a long-term commitment.

 

I honestly don't think it would be much of a downgrade moving from Cain to Taylor. The downgrade would be that we wouldn't have Taylor as a #4 OF, so we'd need someone who could fill that role, as Renfroe and Yelich aren't good options to back up CF. I'd think that Stearns could find a capable vet fairly cheaply who could step in as a backup OF to play all three OF positions.

 

If this fictitious trade (Cain for Voit) went through, we'd be upgrading our offense with the addition of Voit at 1B/DH, and we'd probably get a boost in offense moving from Cain to Taylor in CF, so I'd be fine if we found a defensive whiz as a backup outfielder. That guy could come in late in games we're ahead, and Taylor could move to one of the corners to give us good defense to hold onto the lead.

 

Plus, we'd have a lot of extra money to shore up other positions.

[SRB]

Funny illustration of team biases (on both ends) that we are all taking about Voit for Cain, and Yankees fans I've seen are all assuming the starting point is Voit for Willy Adames

[Soupbone]

Neither one is happening but it is fun to speculate.

[JosephC]

Despite the NY writers thoughts, I very much doubt the Yankees would be at all interested in Cain as it sounds like they will be avoiding injury risks since that was such a problem for them last year (and seemingly the big motivation for why they would part with Voit).

 

Voit has totaled 3.3 bWAR and 3.9 fWAR over the last three years. Since 2020 was only 37% of a full season, we'll take those WAR numbers and divide them by 2.37 instead of the usual 3. So Voit has been good for 1.4 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR per season over the last three years. 1.55 WAR average.

 

Next year is his age 31 season, so the rule of thumb is a 0.5 WAR deduction per season. But instead of dinging him right away, let's say 1.55 WAR in 2022, 1.05 WAR in 2023 and 0.55 WAR in 2024, so lets say 3.15 WAR total from 2022-2024. Voit has a projected arbitration salary of 5.4 million for 2022. Obviously if he's performing at a 1 WAR level, there won't be any huge bumps for him in the arbitration process. So let's say 5.4 million, 6.5 million and 7.8 million, although he would be a lock to be non-tendered if performing at a 1.05 WAR level after 2023. But for the sake of putting a number on him...

 

3.15 WAR * 9 million per WAR = 28.35 million in total value. 19.7 million in projected earnings results in +8.65 million in surplus value.

 

That, IMO, is the top number the Yankees could hope for and that's what they should be shooting for when starting negotiations. If that's the number you use, something like Zavier Warren and Micah Bello would be a fair return.

 

But if applying the 0.5 WAR deduction per season, then Voit really doesn't have much of any surplus value at all. I don't think the TradeValue's number of 3.1 is out of line at all.

 

Add in that it was widely speculated that the Yankees could non-tender him. They probably want to stick with Stanton as the DH, so if they sign a different first baseman then every team that has interest in Voit will naturally low-ball the Yankees because it will be obvious at that point that he's just a spare part they probably don't want anymore.

 

So, in the end, I'd guess his "true" surplus value is somewhere between the +8.65 I came up with and the +3.1 the TradeValue's site has. That equates to one solid role-player type prospect. That is probably something like Voit for Korry Howell, or the Yankees could opt to pass on the Korry Howell type prospect and take a couple of 18/19 year old lottery ticket types instead.

 

For the record, I'm not completely against trading for Voit, there are just several options I look at first. He'd be a Plan C type for me.

[SRB]

I'm not sure that "surplus value" mindset is realistic. We need a middle-of-the-order bat. I would love to just purchase an equivalent 1B at that $ price, but one does not exist. The closest guy on the free agent market is Anthony Rizzo, who is probably looking for $18+ million per year on a multiyear deal. The Yankees would justifiably want waaaay more than Warren and Bello.

[jerichoholicninja]

Rizzo just seems like the type of player who's going to still be available right before spring training starts and Stearns signs to a modest one year deal.

[monty57]

I'm not sure that "surplus value" mindset is realistic. We need a middle-of-the-order bat. I would love to just purchase an equivalent 1B at that $ price, but one does not exist. The closest guy on the free agent market is Anthony Rizzo, who is probably looking for $18+ million per year on a multiyear deal. The Yankees would justifiably want waaaay more than Warren and Bello.

 

Need, or want?

 

Last year we won 95 games without a "middle-of-the-order bat," so I'd say that we don't need one, although it would be nice to have one. If we truly need a middle-of-the-order bat, then we can simply trade away one of our pitchers and have any middle-of-the-order bat we want.

 

We are built on pitching and defense, so most of our resources are tied up. Our current "middle-of-the-order" bat is set to make $26M this year, so we can't afford to go out and buy someone else, and Yelich's deal should be a big red flag against ever signing a deal like that again. Meanwhile, our "young" stars are getting more and more expensive, so trading away our best prospects may help us this year, but it will ensure a long, painful rebuild starting in a couple years. Additionally, the fact that the arby guys will be getting more expensive means that we probably can't afford to sign anyone to even a moderate AAV, multi-year deal because even if we have some free cash this year, we won't have extra money over the next couple of seasons.

 

I think our best options are someone like Voit who isn't overly expensive, and isn't on a guaranteed contract so he could just be cut loose if we don't have the money for him, or we sit back and see who's available on a one-year deal in the short period between when the new CBA is signed and when Spring Training starts.

 

People may not like the Brewers looking at value, but that's the approach that has built the team to where it is, which is arguably the best stretch of baseball the Brewers have ever played.

[TURBO]

It's definitely a NEED!

 

Resting on what happened last year, and hoping we can get that same production out of our pitching staff is always a risk. One of the top 3 goes down with a long injury, and we will be NEEDING that bat. 2 of them go down with an extended injury, and it becomes more than a NEED, but instead a MUST to compete again.

 

You just can't think that because we won 95 games last year with no legit bat, that we can duplicate that in 2022.

 

I don't know how anyone can look at our batting line-up and think we don't NEED a legit middle of the order bat...

 

I'm all for looking at value, it is necessary for this team, but expressing the NEED for a middle of the order bat is a normal reaction when looking at our offensive numbers from last season.

[sveumrules]

You just can't think that because we won 95 games last year with no legit bat, that we can duplicate that in 2022.

 

Willy Adames posted a 135 OPS+ last year, I'd say that is pretty legit.

 

Would you consider Nelson Cruz a legit bat? If the DH comes to the NL maybe we can finally right the wrongs of 2006.

[monty57]

It's definitely a NEED!

 

Resting on what happened last year, and hoping we can get that same production out of our pitching staff is always a risk. One of the top 3 goes down with a long injury, and we will be NEEDING that bat. 2 of them go down with an extended injury, and it becomes more than a NEED, but instead a MUST to compete again.

 

You just can't think that because we won 95 games last year with no legit bat, that we can duplicate that in 2022.

 

I don't know how anyone can look at our batting line-up and think we don't NEED a legit middle of the order bat...

 

I'm all for looking at value, it is necessary for this team, but expressing the NEED for a middle of the order bat is a normal reaction when looking at our offensive numbers from last season.

 

Okay, according to Baseball Trade Values, Burnes has a value of 160.8, Woodruff is 110.4, and Peralta is 113.1.

 

Which one do you want to trade to pick up the middle-of-the-order bat? We don't have the money to sign a free agent to a big, multi-year deal, it wouldn't make sense to trade away guys like Adames or Urias if the goal is to improve the offense, and we don't have a strong farm. I mean, the Pirates were asking for the best prospect in baseball in return for Reynolds, so we can't match that.

 

So, since the only realistic way to get the "true middle-of-the-order bat" that we NEED is to trade from our starting pitching depth, and Houser and Lauer aren't good enough to land anyone of consequence, then which of the big three pitchers do we trade? I'd say not Peralta, because he's the cheap one for the next few years. That "middle-of-the-order" bat is going to be expensive for the next few years when we'll already have a ton of guys getting expensive, so it would pretty much have to be Burnes or Woodruff to offset the monetary cost of the new "middle of the order" bat. Otherwise, by next offseason we'd already be trading some of our stars just to dump their salary to make payroll.

 

I like having the solid starting pitching we have, and I'd be comfortable trading away a Houser or Lauer for an upgrade, but since we NEED a "middle of the order" bat, I guess we have to give up more than I'm comfortable giving up.

 

Of course, I don't expect this to happen. I expect that Stearns will find another upgrade, but not nearly to the level that some people will like. We'll go on to win the division and realize that we did not truly NEED as much as some people felt we NEEDED. We'll hold onto our top prospects, because that is what we truly need if we don't want to go into a decade-long rebuild, and we will continue to churn out winning teams as long as we continue with a strategy focused on remaining "continually competitive" instead of going "all in" for one or two years.

[monty57]

So here are the guys who posted a .900 OPS or more last year:

 

Bryce Harper (1.044) - nope, even if the Phillies gave him to us, we couldn't afford the contract

Vlad Guerrero, Jr. (1.002) - BTV has him at 79.8 value, but there's no way the Jays would take a group of prospects for him. They might listen if we offered up Burnes or Woodruff, but I think they're building around him as the face of the franchise.

Juan Soto (.999) - not a chance in hell we're getting him. Would probably take Burnes and Woodruff.

Fernando Tatis, Jr. (.975) - probably the least likely player in baseball to be traded

Shohei Ohtani (.965) - probably the second least likely player in baseball to be traded

Frank Schwindel (.962) - I'm sure the Cubs would trade him, and he could be a good target, but I doubt anyone here would consider him "proven" enough to be the big upgrade we need

Nick Castellanos (.939) - free agent looking for a 7-8 year deal that the Brewers are not going to do

Joey Votto (.938) - the Reds would love to get out from under the $57M he's owed over the next two years

Kyle Tucker (.917) - Good, young OF. Could probably get him for Woodruff or Peralta straight up

Aaron Judge (.916) - the Yankees just don't seem like the type of team that would trade one of their stars just because he's heading into his final arby year. If they were, he might be a guy we could get for something like Houser and Mitchell if we could afford his projected $17.5M arby salary for his final year before free agency. I wouldn't make that trade.

Bryan Reynolds (.912) - Pirates reportedly asked for the Mariners' Julio Rodriguez, one of the top prospects in baseball, in return for Reynolds. We don't have the prospects to make this happen.

Tyler O'Neill (.912) - I'd love to have him, but probably not "the Cardinal way" to trade one of their young studs to their chief rival for the NL Central title.

Matt Olson (.911) - been heavily discussed in his own thread. My take is that he'd take something like Frelick, Turang, and Mitchell to get and would pretty much guarantee a massive rebuild/selloff in two years. Might be worth it to those who want to go "all in," but I'd hate it.

Trea Turner (.911) - the Dodgers aren't trading him.

C.J. Cron (.905) - also been discussed - is this repeatable, or just a result of playing in Colorado?

 

That's it for the .900 OPS guys. The reality is that it will be really difficult for the Brewers to obtain a "middle of the order" bat, and it's even more difficult if they truly want to remain "continually competitive" as Stearns and Attanasio have stated instead of going "all in" and accepting a major rebuild in a couple of years.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

So here are the guys who posted a .900 OPS or more last year:

 

Bryce Harper (1.044) - nope, even if the Phillies gave him to us, we couldn't afford the contract

Vlad Guerrero, Jr. (1.002) - BTV has him at 79.8 value, but there's no way the Jays would take a group of prospects for him. They might listen if we offered up Burnes or Woodruff, but I think they're building around him as the face of the franchise.

Juan Soto (.999) - not a chance in hell we're getting him. Would probably take Burnes and Woodruff.

Fernando Tatis, Jr. (.975) - probably the least likely player in baseball to be traded

Shohei Ohtani (.965) - probably the second least likely player in baseball to be traded

Frank Schwindel (.962) - I'm sure the Cubs would trade him, and he could be a good target, but I doubt anyone here would consider him "proven" enough to be the big upgrade we need

Nick Castellanos (.939) - free agent looking for a 7-8 year deal that the Brewers are not going to do

Joey Votto (.938) - the Reds would love to get out from under the $57M he's owed over the next two years

Kyle Tucker (.917) - Good, young OF. Could probably get him for Woodruff or Peralta straight up

Aaron Judge (.916) - the Yankees just don't seem like the type of team that would trade one of their stars just because he's heading into his final arby year. If they were, he might be a guy we could get for something like Houser and Mitchell if we could afford his projected $17.5M arby salary for his final year before free agency. I wouldn't make that trade.

Bryan Reynolds (.912) - Pirates reportedly asked for the Mariners' Julio Rodriguez, one of the top prospects in baseball, in return for Reynolds. We don't have the prospects to make this happen.

Tyler O'Neill (.912) - I'd love to have him, but probably not "the Cardinal way" to trade one of their young studs to their chief rival for the NL Central title.

Matt Olson (.911) - been heavily discussed in his own thread. My take is that he'd take something like Frelick, Turang, and Mitchell to get and would pretty much guarantee a massive rebuild/selloff in two years. Might be worth it to those who want to go "all in," but I'd hate it.

Trea Turner (.911) - the Dodgers aren't trading him.

C.J. Cron (.905) - also been discussed - is this repeatable, or just a result of playing in Colorado?

 

That's it for the .900 OPS guys. The reality is that it will be really difficult for the Brewers to obtain a "middle of the order" bat, and it's even more difficult if they truly want to remain "continually competitive" as Stearns and Attanasio have stated instead of going "all in" and accepting a major rebuild in a couple of years.

 

Taking it a step further. There are maybe 2 guys that posted ops of 850 or up that could be acquired. And even that wouldn’t be easy to do. Obviously prospects are just that, prospects (Yelich trade as example). However, sometimes those prospects turn into the best pitching this organization has ever seen. I understand the desire to have a big thumper in the middle, I’d love it. But be cautious with the cost and consequences. Even aquiring a legit bat doesn’t guarantee that they will keep mashing. Trust the process. Pitching and defense baby!

 

Plus, Tellez, Renfroe and Yelich will hit 100+ homers the 3 of them. That’s some good thump!

[Underachiever]

Tyler O'Neill (.912)

 

You forgot to factor in the "punchable face" factor, which drops O'Neill several hundred points in my personal projections. Put Bader on that list as well.

[wallus]

So here are the guys who posted a .900 OPS or more last year:

 

Bryce Harper (1.044) - nope, even if the Phillies gave him to us, we couldn't afford the contract

Vlad Guerrero, Jr. (1.002) - BTV has him at 79.8 value, but there's no way the Jays would take a group of prospects for him. They might listen if we offered up Burnes or Woodruff, but I think they're building around him as the face of the franchise.

Juan Soto (.999) - not a chance in hell we're getting him. Would probably take Burnes and Woodruff.

Fernando Tatis, Jr. (.975) - probably the least likely player in baseball to be traded

Shohei Ohtani (.965) - probably the second least likely player in baseball to be traded

Frank Schwindel (.962) - I'm sure the Cubs would trade him, and he could be a good target, but I doubt anyone here would consider him "proven" enough to be the big upgrade we need

Nick Castellanos (.939) - free agent looking for a 7-8 year deal that the Brewers are not going to do

Joey Votto (.938) - the Reds would love to get out from under the $57M he's owed over the next two years

Kyle Tucker (.917) - Good, young OF. Could probably get him for Woodruff or Peralta straight up

Aaron Judge (.916) - the Yankees just don't seem like the type of team that would trade one of their stars just because he's heading into his final arby year. If they were, he might be a guy we could get for something like Houser and Mitchell if we could afford his projected $17.5M arby salary for his final year before free agency. I wouldn't make that trade.

Bryan Reynolds (.912) - Pirates reportedly asked for the Mariners' Julio Rodriguez, one of the top prospects in baseball, in return for Reynolds. We don't have the prospects to make this happen.

Tyler O'Neill (.912) - I'd love to have him, but probably not "the Cardinal way" to trade one of their young studs to their chief rival for the NL Central title.

Matt Olson (.911) - been heavily discussed in his own thread. My take is that he'd take something like Frelick, Turang, and Mitchell to get and would pretty much guarantee a massive rebuild/selloff in two years. Might be worth it to those who want to go "all in," but I'd hate it.

Trea Turner (.911) - the Dodgers aren't trading him.

C.J. Cron (.905) - also been discussed - is this repeatable, or just a result of playing in Colorado?

 

That's it for the .900 OPS guys. The reality is that it will be really difficult for the Brewers to obtain a "middle of the order" bat, and it's even more difficult if they truly want to remain "continually competitive" as Stearns and Attanasio have stated instead of going "all in" and accepting a major rebuild in a couple of years.

 

Olson seems like the only "realistic" and good player on that list that we could get. Cron hit .734 away from Coors field. He might be ok if we just want someone to mash lefties but I doubt DS sees that as a huge need. Cron seems like a guy you can trade for easily at the deadline if you need to.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Cron hit .734 away from Coors field. He might be ok if we just want someone to mash lefties but I doubt DS sees that as a huge need. Cron seems like a guy you can trade for easily at the deadline if you need to.

 

Cron is also a guy who they could have theoretically acquired several times over the years for practically nothing. I, too, doubt they are interested.

[jerichoholicninja]

I too feel like the Brewers need a "middle of the order" bat more than anything. However, that's a much lower bar for the Brewers. As the roster stands now who is the meat of the order? Renfroe and Adames? I'd love a .900 OPS hitter too but I know that's almost certainly not going to happen. A couple guys who you can guarantee will keep their OPS over .800 would do wonders for the lineup.

[nate82]

Cron hit .734 away from Coors field. He might be ok if we just want someone to mash lefties but I doubt DS sees that as a huge need. Cron seems like a guy you can trade for easily at the deadline if you need to.

 

Cron is also a guy who they could have theoretically acquired several times over the years for practically nothing. I, too, doubt they are interested.

 

I thought Cron has already resigned with the Rockies but could be wrong.

[SRB]

I'm not sure the .900 OPS threshold is necessary. Whatever your definition of "middle of the order bat," the pragmatic problem is that we simply need a reliable bopper who is going to be a threat in the lineup all year long. Voit is that kind of guy, in my opinion. 133 wRC+ in his career, no real platoon splits, and led the majors in HR in 2020.

 

We hopefully already have a guy like that in Yelich, assuming he rebounds even just some, but obviously there's a question mark there. Adames played like an MVP after the trade last season, but it's probably more realistic to expect a high-.700's/low-.800's OPS going forward (still an All Star caliber player, but maybe not the guy you want to be the best offensive player on the team).

 

The current roster is still a good team, but I think people are underestimating how bad our offense was last season. We succeeded due to Burnes having literally one of the greatest pitching seasons in recent memory, alongside borderline Cy Young campaigns from Woodruff, Peralta, and Hader. Should we count on them all repeating? We also lucked out by a few batters getting red hot at different points in the season without overlapping (first Narvaez and then Garcia/Adames). By the time of the playoffs, nobody was in the middle of a hot streak, and we got rolled in the first round by an inferior Braves team.

[sveumrules]

I think people are underestimating how bad our offense was last season.

 

Brewers averaged 4.56 runs per game vs an MLB average of 4.53 runs per game. NL average was a little lower without the DH at 4.46 runs per game.

 

Brewers position players posted a 97 wRC+. Taking out JBJ it would have been about 102.

 

The offense was almost exactly average last year.

[Underachiever]

I think people are underestimating how bad our offense was last season.

 

Brewers averaged 4.56 runs per game vs an MLB average of 4.53 runs per game. NL average was a little lower without the DH at 4.46 runs per game.

 

Brewers position players posted a 97 wRC+. Taking out JBJ it would have been about 102.

 

The offense was almost exactly average last year.

That means when the Brewers face another "exactly average" pitching staff and lineup in the playoffs, they should be fine. But the bar is not set at "average" when you think you have a World Series team. Being "exactly average" is what got them bounced by Atlanta. Average offenses don't go 20+ innings in a row without scoring in the playoffs. Average means 8th of 15 in the National League, and that doesn't even make the playoffs. I assume you are pushing back at the "underestimating how bad our offense was" comment in the post above, but you cannot seriously point out a 97 wRC+ and pretend like that is good enough. As far as playoff contenders go, it is below average. Those are the teams that should be the measuring stick, not stats that include Baltimore, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. And, if you are putting that fine a point on it, 97 isn't average, 100 is. So, while almost "exactly average", I can also say it was below average and not be wrong.

 

Maybe I'm wrong. Find me a team that won a WS with a 97wRC+, I'll take back everything I said. They may be out there, I don't even know how to search for it. I believe in analytics, but cannot pretend the Brewer lineup was good enough.

[TURBO]

I think people are underestimating how bad our offense was last season.

 

Brewers averaged 4.56 runs per game vs an MLB average of 4.53 runs per game. NL average was a little lower without the DH at 4.46 runs per game.

 

Brewers position players posted a 97 wRC+. Taking out JBJ it would have been about 102.

 

The offense was almost exactly average last year.

 

Once again, it appears that you are defending "average" when we all know darn good and well, that our "average" offense was not good enough to make it out of the 1st round of the playoffs.

 

Our pitching is world class, and as good as it was, it was NOT enough to get us through the first round, and certainly not enough to make it to, or win the world series.

 

So whether or not you think average is good enough, and that average will take us to the promised land, most of us know it isn't enough, and we have living proof based on last season.

 

You can throw out any stat you want to prove your point, but there is no way that the offense we put on the field last year was average, it just wasn't.

 

If having an average offense is our goal, once again, we will waste all of our great pitching.

 

It is obvious to me, a guy who watches every game (well, 90% anyway), that last years offense wasn't good, and if we do nothing but replace Garcia with Renfroe, this year's offense will be no better.

 

We need a thumper, a genuine middle of the order legit bat.

 

Without that one piece, or in a perfect world, 2 of them, we are doomed to repeat last year, and that is assuming our pitching gives us a repeat performance, which we can't possibly hope for.