Houser, Lauer

[NYChez]

Could the Brewers get an Adames-type return by trading one or both of their young, effective (but non-top 3) starters to a pitching-starved team such as the Twins? Could a star position player like Alex Kirilloff be attained?

 

With Ashby and Small in the wings, perhaps the Brewers could take advantage of their pitching surplus to continue to add young stars to the roster.

[MrTPlush]

Neither guy has much of a track record, so no, you aren’t getting anything close to an Alex K.

 

They have value for sure, but I think we would be better off keeping both another year. If one or both of them have another great year their value will be exponentially more than it is now. Ashby/Small can get their fair share of opportunities via injury next year and be well seasoned for 2023.

 

I do think you have the right idea, not only to get some younger talent, but also to keep the payroll down. Both of those guys enter arbitration next year. First year money isn’t usually bad, but after that it can get a bit pricey. It seems logical to trade from an area of strength that you have guys waiting in the wings at.

[jjfanec]

I would say wait a year for a couple reasons

1. As noted above the track record for a bigger return just isn't there

2. Also noted above the price increase isnt huge year 1 of arby. How much of a difference is it from what we will inevitably pay a veteran like Anderson to give us depth?

3. Ashby will likely have an innings limit next year so he is probably better as a 6th starter

4. If we wait a year they will still have value - maybe more if they take a next step - and we will see what steps small makes and we will see what we have with younger offensive guys like tellez, urias, Taylor, Mitchell, etc. We will have a clearer picture what we need to trade for.

[igor67]

I can certainly see the possibility of dealing a starting pitcher at some point. I am going to guess though that they wait until midseason next year. Starting pitching tends to go up in price then and bats seemingly decline in demand. Also just having the depth and being prepared for part of the season and not having to patch the rotation with a guy is a pretty big strength.

[FVBrewerFan]

I see where you're going with this, but no way do you deal those guys unless you're blown away by an offer. How soon we forget how many decades we struggled to find a quality, controllable SP or two.

 

1) They are cheap, even in their arby years.

2) Ashby or anyone else are far from sure things.

3) Woodruff is getting a little older, plus he may move on. So could Burnes.

4) There's always the injury bug. Lose 1 or 2 SP and you have AAAA guys to take their place.

5) Both have flashed their ceilings. If they continue to develop, even a bigger bargain.

 

Just no way I deal our #4,5 rotation guys under those circumstances. Actually, if anything, I would consider selling high on Woodruff if the return was huge- which it should be.

[MNBrew]

I don't think you can overvalue pitching depth. Per FVBrewerFan's #4 above, I'd far prefer Houser & Lauer in the rotation as opposed to Lindblom, etc.

[adambr2]

Well the hope is that we're not filling those spots with Lindblom, etc. The hope is that we're filling them with Ashby, Small, other trade acquisitions like Lauer etc.

[brewmann04]

I agree not moving these 2 guys they will be very valuable for 2022. have to love the potential for this future rotation.

[patrickgpe]

I think these guys are more valuable than what they gave up for adames. I don’t see the reason to trade either given their recent history and salary for 2022.

[NYChez]

I think these guys are more valuable than what they gave up for adames. I don’t see the reason to trade either given their recent history and salary for 2022.

The question is if there’s another Adames that could be gotten for Houser and Lauer, do you make the trade? (And then who are the potential Adameses?)

[MrTPlush]

I think these guys are more valuable than what they gave up for adames. I don’t see the reason to trade either given their recent history and salary for 2022.

The question is if there’s another Adames that could be gotten for Houser and Lauer, do you make the trade? (And then who are the potential Adameses?)

 

It’s important to remember what Adames value was at the time of the trade and also his perceived potential/future production. It certainly wasn’t anywhere near a .900 OPS…and maybe in the long run it isn’t that.

 

99/100 times you aren’t going to make such a trade and have a guy with a .900 OPS playing SS.

 

I’d trade Houser or Lauer for another Adames every day of the week…but for the value that was perceived at the time of that trade…? Not so obvious

[Outlander]

Houser could potentially be a free agent after the 2022 season depending on what happens with the new agreement with the union so wouldn't be surprised if he was traded. Can't pay everybody and salaries for this team will be going up fast, think he would be appealing to a number of teams after the season he has had.

[Roderick]

I'd trade Lauer or Houser for a good, young, cost-controlled 3B. If he doesn't work out, you still have Urias.

 

Or you move Yelich to 1B (and Garcia is gone) and want to get a young, cost-controlled corner OF.

 

Can't really see another reason to trade off Houser or Lauer before next year,

[TURBO]

If they believe that Ashby can step in as our #4 or #5 next season, full time, then I can see them moving one of the two.

 

That would be a hit to our depth though, and you can bet that one or 2 of the starting rotation will be hurt at some point next year.

 

I'd keep them both, unless of course we get an offer that can't be ignored.

 

Let Anderson go...

[nate82]

I think Houser is the one who gets traded but to who I am not sure. The teams that instantly come to mind that need pitching help are the Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Padres.

 

I would love to get Groshans from the Blue Jays but the Brewers would have to add in a prospect or two to even out that deal. Groshans would be that young 3B that you could put at 3B in 2023.

[roadcrew3]

Met's were rumored to be asking for Houser or Lauer at the trade deadline this year. They'll probably have some turnover in the front office this offseason but could be a match there too given their pitching needs.

[OldHeidelberg]

Houser could potentially be a free agent after the 2022 season depending on what happens with the new agreement with the union so wouldn't be surprised if he was traded. Can't pay everybody and salaries for this team will be going up fast, think he would be appealing to a number of teams after the season he has had.

 

Why could this happen to Houser and not to Burnes, Woodruff, or Lauer? Just curious what is different about Houser's status as I think he will be in arby this year for the first time.

[sveumrules]

Houser could potentially be a free agent after the 2022 season depending on what happens with the new agreement with the union so wouldn't be surprised if he was traded. Can't pay everybody and salaries for this team will be going up fast, think he would be appealing to a number of teams after the season he has had.

 

Why could this happen to Houser and not to Burnes, Woodruff, or Lauer? Just curious what is different about Houser's status as I think he will be in arby this year for the first time.

 

MLB made a proposal to MLBPA where free agency would be determined by age, not service time. Though apparently the MLBPA "responded very negatively" so it is probably a longshot for this CBA...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/09/mlb-proposal-to-players-association-included-changes-to-service-time-structure.html

 

If something like that were to go into effect Houser (2/2/93) and Woodruff (2/10/93) were born like a week apart so they would presumably be equally impacted, where guys like Burnes and Lauer are a couple of years younger.

[umphrey]

Trade Woodruff for a mega deal and keep Lauer and Hauser

[pacopete4]

Trade none and just pound teams series after series with a 6-man rotation.

 

Woody

Peralta

Lauer

Burnes

Houser

Ashby

 

When Small is ready, you think about trading OR stick Houser in the pen and have at it. Keep the arms and continue to keep winning a lot of baseball games.

[NYChez]

Trade Lauer to the Padres for Trent Grisham.

[SRB]

I think these guys are more valuable than what they gave up for adames. I don’t see the reason to trade either given their recent history and salary for 2022.

The question is if there’s another Adames that could be gotten for Houser and Lauer, do you make the trade? (And then who are the potential Adameses?)

 

It’s important to remember what Adames value was at the time of the trade and also his perceived potential/future production. It certainly wasn’t anywhere near a .900 OPS…and maybe in the long run it isn’t that.

 

99/100 times you aren’t going to make such a trade and have a guy with a .900 OPS playing SS.

 

I’d trade Houser or Lauer for another Adames every day of the week…but for the value that was perceived at the time of that trade…? Not so obvious

 

Absolutely zero question that you should trade a Lauer or a Houser for a pre-trade Adames (setting aside how many years of team control are at issue). Adames had tremendous value at the time of that trade. He was an elite prospect within the last couple years and was excellent as recently as 2020. The Rays panicked and sold low. I don't understand why there are still people trying to rationalize that trade for the Rays.

 

Recent top 15-20 prospect in baseball

 

2019 WAR per 162 games: 4.2 rWAR, 3.1 fWAR

 

2020 WAR per 162 games: 6.0 rWAR, 4.5 fWAR

[clancyphile]

It’s important to remember what Adames value was at the time of the trade and also his perceived potential/future production. It certainly wasn’t anywhere near a .900 OPS…and maybe in the long run it isn’t that.

 

99/100 times you aren’t going to make such a trade and have a guy with a .900 OPS playing SS.

 

I’d trade Houser or Lauer for another Adames every day of the week…but for the value that was perceived at the time of that trade…? Not so obvious

 

Absolutely zero question that you should trade a Lauer or a Houser for a pre-trade Adames (setting aside how many years of team control are at issue). Adames had tremendous value at the time of that trade. He was an elite prospect within the last couple years and was excellent as recently as 2020. The Rays panicked and sold low. I don't understand why there are still people trying to rationalize that trade for the Rays.

 

Recent top 15-20 prospect in baseball

 

2019 WAR per 162 games: 4.2 rWAR, 3.1 fWAR

 

2020 WAR per 162 games: 6.0 rWAR, 4.5 fWAR

 

Panicked, or were eager for their wunderkind prospect Franco to be in the majors?

 

Honestly, to get two very good relief pitchers in Rasmussen (who I think becomes a right-handed Hader) and Feyerisen for a few years is not a BAD return for Adames... and to be honest, giving up Rasmussen is still a little painful.

 

Said pain will go away when the Crew extends Adames.

[Roderick]

Trade Woodruff for a mega deal and keep Lauer and Hauser

 

I am willing to pull this trigger, as long as we get the haul. I think Burnes, Peralta, Lauer, Houser, Ashby would still be a top starting rotation in 2022 with Small/Lindblom/Bettinger/Hardy as emergency starters and the next man in. Plus you can probably include an almost MLB ready pitcher in the trade if you have concerns.

[TURBO]

HOUSER, it's HOUSER...