Is this offseason time to trade Hader?

[Austin Tatious]

If the Brewers deal Hader, I hope we get multiple infielders with good hit tools (maybe in the form of a major leaguer with control and a quality minor leaguer).  This is the organizational weak spot.  The Brewers have done a lot of good things in building the roster the past few years but there’s an obvious blind spot for getting infielders  in here with good hit tools.  That’s how you end up with a lineup full of guys hitting between .200 and .240 with OPS all well under .800.

Hiura was one of our few .800 ops guys despite his swing and miss problem and they inexplicably sent him down the other day.

Anyway, back on point, we have some very good outfield prospects but at some point you’ve got to address the infield in a more significant way.  And going forward, both in the foreign signings and the draft, I hope we balance in some quality infielders with pop.   

[Outlander]

There are no reports, just people talking and throwing our their ideas.

[endaround]

1 hour ago, Austin Tatious said:

If the Brewers deal Hader, I hope we get multiple infielders with good hit tools (maybe in the form of a major leaguer with control and a quality minor leaguer).  This is the organizational weak spot.  The Brewers have done a lot of good things in building the roster the past few years but there’s an obvious blind spot for getting infielders  in here with good hit tools.  That’s how you end up with a lineup full of guys hitting between .200 and .240 with OPS all well under .800.

Hiura was one of our few .800 ops guys despite his swing and miss problem and they inexplicably sent him down the other day.

Anyway, back on point, we have some very good outfield prospects but at some point you’ve got to address the infield in a more significant way.  And going forward, both in the foreign signings and the draft, I hope we balance in some quality infielders with pop.   

Huh? That is what the Brewers have in Adames and Urias.  They are lacking in impact 1B/DH bats and corner outfield bats.

[Robocaller]

I know one thing for sure. Right not isn't the right time to trade Hader. Perhaps two weeks ago, but I hope not.

[Robocaller]

18 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

If the Brewers deal Hader, I hope we get multiple infielders with good hit tools (maybe in the form of a major leaguer with control and a quality minor leaguer).  This is the organizational weak spot.  The Brewers have done a lot of good things in building the roster the past few years but there’s an obvious blind spot for getting infielders  in here with good hit tools.  That’s how you end up with a lineup full of guys hitting between .200 and .240 with OPS all well under .800.

Hiura was one of our few .800 ops guys despite his swing and miss problem and they inexplicably sent him down the other day.

Anyway, back on point, we have some very good outfield prospects but at some point you’ve got to address the infield in a more significant way.  And going forward, both in the foreign signings and the draft, I hope we balance in some quality infielders with pop.   

Adames hit .285 last year. Urias hit .249 with OPS near .800.
biggest bang for our buck is in improving CF. With the flexibility of the players on the roster, can fit an elite bat anywhere, even if they aren't great in the field.

[JollyCharlie]

Hader for Lux-would the Dodgers do it?

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, JollyCharlie said:

Hader for Lux-would the Dodgers do it?

First, welcome to the site!

I don’t think so, mainly due to the nature of position players versus pitchers. The problem with moving Hader is that closers are particularly fickle and teams know that. Tomorrow, or four days ago, Hader could have lost his stuff and paying big money for that volatile of a position is not something teams will do.

Can Hader be traded for a slew of intriguing prospects? In my opinion, absolutely. And that’s where the Brewers can shine with their development pipeline. 

[owbc]

What is Hader actually worth right now? His Turnbow-like meltdown has erased all of his 2022 value--he's a replacement level reliever this year. I would imagine that any GM calling would be looking for a significant discount since there's no guarantee his problems can be solved fast enough to help with a 2022 playoff run. 

[Brewcrew82]

41 minutes ago, owbc said:

What is Hader actually worth right now? His Turnbow-like meltdown has erased all of his 2022 value--he's a replacement level reliever this year. I would imagine that any GM calling would be looking for a significant discount since there's no guarantee his problems can be solved fast enough to help with a 2022 playoff run. 

Yeah. I'm confident that Hader will turn things around very soon. But now is not the time to trade him if we're hoping for a good return. Hopefully, he can return to dominance over the rest of the season a la Knebel in 2018 as we continue our playoff push. Then, once he's reestablished his dominance, we can trade him in the offseason for a major piece or two. He's still the NL reliever of the year 3/4 years running, after all...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

14 hours ago, owbc said:

What is Hader actually worth right now? His Turnbow-like meltdown has erased all of his 2022 value--he's a replacement level reliever this year. I would imagine that any GM calling would be looking for a significant discount since there's no guarantee his problems can be solved fast enough to help with a 2022 playoff run. 

I disagree completely. Any GM worth anything knows that MLB relievers are streaky and volatile. Hader is obviously not immune to that. Plus we're talking about a guy who has literally been the best in the business the last half decade. He's got plenty of value, even with his rough last couple weeks.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, Hader has had stretches like this in the past & always bounced back before…

2022: 6 G | 4.1 IP | 24.92 ERA

2021: 6 G | 5.2 IP | 9.53 ERA

2020: 5 G | 4.0 IP | 13.50 ERA

2019: 5 G | 5.2 IP | 9.53 ERA

2019: 7 G | 6.0 IP | 10.50 ERA

That’s 37 ER over 25.2 IP in 29 outings during five stretches of blow up outings over the last four seasons.

In his other 146 games since 2019 he has given up 16 ER in 157.2 IP for a 0.91 ERA.

[Jim French Stepstool]

He's going through a rough stretch but in no way has this erased all his value. What has happened is, if you are looking to trade him, this is a bad time for him to hit this rough patch. If this does happen it'll be driven more by some team wanting to pony up for him in spite of the recent struggles, than us specifically wanting to make a move. That's why we recently heard that they'll listen to offers. See what someone comes up with; if it isn't enough just say no.

I find it hard to believe some of these prospect hauls offered (Guardians & Yankees) are legit.

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

 That's why we recently heard that they'll listen to offers. See what someone comes up with; if it isn't enough just say no.

 

Not to take the train completely off the tracks, but every player is available at the right price. I would imagine every team listens to offers on every player they have. That's why you always here the GM speak in the media, "We're not inclined to trade X at this time". 

I'm sure the Brewers have talks about Hader (and Burnes, Woodruff etc.) all the time. But obviously, given those players importance to the club, it would be very hard for someone to hit "the right price" in trade talks. 

[monty57]

I'd highly doubt the team is looking to trade Hader now (or during this season), but I think there is a very good chance he's traded this offseason. 

As good as he is, he's still a reliever so he won't bring back as much as some hope for, but he'll bring back a decent haul. He's heading into his final arby year, so it would be nice to get something for him rather than losing him "for nothing," and he'll probably make around $15M in his final arby year, and payroll could be pretty tight next year so that money could help out elsewhere.

Finally, while it would obviously hurt to lose him from the bullpen, at least we have Williams to step into the closer role and Boxberger to set him up. Losing a "best in the business" guy will always leave a hole, but our bullpen should still be a strength, and the guys we get back and the money saved can help us improve elsewhere on the field.

[StearnsFTW]

Kimbrel got a pretty good haul.  Twice.

That's the best comp for what a Hader trade may look like this offseason (I see it as zero chance they deal him next week).

 

He had 1 year of arbitration left when dealt to Boston and fetched 4 prospects including Manuel Margot.  I'm not sure how highly-ranked those 4 guys were at the time, but I recall that it seemed like a good haul for Kimbrel at the time.

 

[monty57]

BaseballTradeValues.com has Hader's value at 15.2. For sake of reference as to what that would bring back, Sal Frelick is at 16.8, and Churio is 35.7. 

If we're looking at bringing a "not too far from MLB" prospect back, we're probably looking at someone along Frelick's level, which I believe is a Top 50-type prospect, but probably not a Top 10 or Top 20 guy.

Bobby Witt, Jr, the heralded "top prospect in the game" coming into the season has a value of 108.7, while Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners is 121.4. That's the type of guy we'd try to target as a headliner in a Burnes (132.9) trade. Just for the record, Woodruff is at 51.9.

Take these all with a grain of salt, but they're good for a point of reference as to what we might look for when discussing trades. The question then becomes, "what is more important to the Brewers, having one more year of Hader when we're a playoff caliber team, or getting another Frelick-level prospect who should be a solid contributor to the team for the next 6+ seasons?"

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

15 minutes ago, monty57 said:

BaseballTradeValues.com has Hader's value at 15.2. For sake of reference as to what that would bring back, Sal Frelick is at 16.8, and Churio is 35.7. 

If we're looking at bringing a "not too far from MLB" prospect back, we're probably looking at someone along Frelick's level, which I believe is a Top 50-type prospect, but probably not a Top 10 or Top 20 guy.

Bobby Witt, Jr, the heralded "top prospect in the game" coming into the season has a value of 108.7, while Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners is 121.4. That's the type of guy we'd try to target as a headliner in a Burnes (132.9) trade. Just for the record, Woodruff is at 51.9.

Take these all with a grain of salt, but they're good for a point of reference as to what we might look for when discussing trades. The question then becomes, "what is more important to the Brewers, having one more year of Hader when we're a playoff caliber team, or getting another Frelick-level prospect who should be a solid contributor to the team for the next 6+ seasons?"

Besides just being plain bad at player valuations in general, that site is notoriously terrible at determining reliever trade values. I would take ANY reliever value they put up with a huge block of salt.

[monty57]

To add to my last post, some guys in the "Frelick range" according to MLB.com, who are on teams that are likely playoff contenders in 2023 are:

42) Michael Busch 1B/2B, Dodgers

47) Andy Pages OF, Dodgers

Frelick is #48

52) Ronnie Mauricio SS, Mets

53) Andrew Painter RHP, Phillies

54) Luis Campusano C, Padres

55) Mick Abel RHP, Phillies

56) Ezequiel Duran INF, Rangers (maybe not a contender, but they spent big last offseason)

 

I don't know how likely any of these guys are to be traded, but they're probably in the ballpark of what one year of Hader may be worth.

[monty57]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Besides just being plain bad at player valuations in general, that site is notoriously terrible at determining reliever trade values. I would take ANY reliever value they put up with a huge block of salt.

I agree, but it's something to go off of. Otherwise, there's a huge range, from people saying they wouldn't take any less than a top prospect to people believing there's almost no trade value.

I don't think that expecting a "Frelick level" prospect for Hader is too far off from reality, but maybe they find an anxious GM who really wants Hader and they can get more. We can all hope for that.

[nate82]

29 minutes ago, monty57 said:

BaseballTradeValues.com has Hader's value at 15.2. For sake of reference as to what that would bring back, Sal Frelick is at 16.8, and Churio is 35.7. 

If we're looking at bringing a "not too far from MLB" prospect back, we're probably looking at someone along Frelick's level, which I believe is a Top 50-type prospect, but probably not a Top 10 or Top 20 guy.

Bobby Witt, Jr, the heralded "top prospect in the game" coming into the season has a value of 108.7, while Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners is 121.4. That's the type of guy we'd try to target as a headliner in a Burnes (132.9) trade. Just for the record, Woodruff is at 51.9.

Take these all with a grain of salt, but they're good for a point of reference as to what we might look for when discussing trades. The question then becomes, "what is more important to the Brewers, having one more year of Hader when we're a playoff caliber team, or getting another Frelick-level prospect who should be a solid contributor to the team for the next 6+ seasons?"

If you are talking about Hader's value during the offseason I agree the BTV site is a really good reference.  But if you are talking about trading Hader during the deadline then I think you have to multiply that by at least 1.5 times his current value.  Teams tend to overpay by a lot for relievers during the deadline.

So if you use the 1.5 times his value that would be around 23.  So you are still talking about the same type of prospects.  I think Hader's value is closer to 40 during the deadline and somewhere around 15-20 during the offseason.  During the deadline you could get two premium prospects while during the offseason I think you can only get one.  

[monty57]

37 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If you are talking about Hader's value during the offseason I agree the BTV site is a really good reference.  But if you are talking about trading Hader during the deadline then I think you have to multiply that by at least 1.5 times his current value.  Teams tend to overpay by a lot for relievers during the deadline.

So if you use the 1.5 times his value that would be around 23.  So you are still talking about the same type of prospects.  I think Hader's value is closer to 40 during the deadline and somewhere around 15-20 during the offseason.  During the deadline you could get two premium prospects while during the offseason I think you can only get one.  

While I highly doubt that the Brewers will trade away their closer when they're in first place, if the Dodgers called offering Busch and Pages, or the Phillies offered Painter and Abel, I think Hader would end this season on a different team.

[LouisEly]

Not sure why Aroldis Chapman's trades in 2015 and 2016 aren't good comps for what Hader could fetch.  In 2015 Chapman's service time according to B-R.com was 4.034; they have Hader's service time right now as 4.115.

I hope the prospects turn out better than in those trades, but I think those are the type of prospects he would bring back.

[Lathund]

The reason to think it might not be a good comp is that even since 2015-2016 it seems that the way teams value relievers has changed quite a bit. They also seem far more hesitant to trade top prospects for players with limited team control than they used to. But of course, it's hard to predict this kind of thing. It only takes one team that values things a bit differently, or who gets a bit desperate, or who has a roster crunch etc for the return to be on that level still. 

[JCREW]

On 7/24/2022 at 8:21 AM, Lathund said:

The reason to think it might not be a good comp is that even since 2015-2016 it seems that the way teams value relievers has changed quite a bit. They also seem far more hesitant to trade top prospects for players with limited team control than they used to. But of course, it's hard to predict this kind of thing. It only takes one team that values things a bit differently, or who gets a bit desperate, or who has a roster crunch etc for the return to be on that level still. 

I've been thinking a lot about this. I like the BTV site, but I think it is going to get harder and harder to pin down value for players. And for someone looking for trade comps, going back more than a year or two is probably about the extent of reasonable comps. Why?

- the ascendency of Trackman, Statcast, and other analytical devices has allowed teams to think way differently about player value

- because of the above, valued skill sets seem to change more quickly than ever

- baseball salaries have been increasing steeply

- A hot prospect or two (Vidal Brujan, Wander Franco) being blocked by an otherwise valuable player (Willy Adames) is a hard-to-predict intangible