Is this offseason time to trade Hader?

[tmwiese55]

Remember 2020 wasn't really that good of a year for Hader too, relatively of course. He then came back and had one of the most dominant seasons a closer can have. So that does help.

 

However, something that hurts is in the last two years since this talk has started we all probably had LAD in our heads as the team that could make a godfather type offer due to desperately needing a closer with Kenley falling off and that being their only weakness combined with them having a loaded team and farm system to deal from. Now, Jansen has fixed himself and they had few others like Treinen step up. So, they're not as desperate.

[adambr2]

I am stunned that there are seemingly numerous people who all saw a very depressed trade market for Josh Hader a year ago who now think it is just going to be different this time.

 

I am curious about the bolded part. That seems like 100% speculation to me. Was there any legit news out there that Hader was even on the market last offseason, much less that his trade market was depressed?

 

I think it was pretty well established that he was indeed available and that teams did not meet our asking price.

 

https://fansided.com/2021/01/29/brewers-josh-hader-trade-rumors/

[Jopal78]

When they had Devin Williams coming off an NL Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year season, I could understand an argument for trading Hader and moving every one in the pen forward one spot without losing much overall. But now, Williams has shown that while very good, he isn't Josh Hader.

 

Thus, there's no question trading Hader would weaken the bullpen. Therefore the return would have to be so overwhelming to improve another area of the team so greatly as to compensate for the weakening of the bullpen.

 

I don't see that kind of return likely happening, so the best bet would be to hang on to Hader for the 2022 season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I am stunned that there are seemingly numerous people who all saw a very depressed trade market for Josh Hader a year ago who now think it is just going to be different this time.

 

I am curious about the bolded part. That seems like 100% speculation to me. Was there any legit news out there that Hader was even on the market last offseason, much less that his trade market was depressed?

 

I think it was pretty well established that he was indeed available and that teams did not meet our asking price.

 

https://fansided.com/2021/01/29/brewers-josh-hader-trade-rumors/

 

Yeah, I remember reading that story. How's that the same as saying that there was a "very depressed market" though? Reading that teams didn't meet the team's high ask and drawing out of it that there was a depressed market for his services is a pretty big negative leap in my mind.

[wntrtxn21]

If the Brewers are going to make a trade for a bat I would prefer trading Hader over Mitchell who I think is the Brewers top trade chip but I just don't see anything out there that I would want to trade Mitchell for. Hader on the other hand there are some options though I am not in love with the options that I can see that are out there.

 

Phillies: Hader and Hiura

Brewers: Hoskins and Bohm

 

Mets: Hader

Brewers: Alonso, Diaz and Ramirez

 

Padres: Hader

Brewers: Campusano and Weathers

 

Astros: Hader and Kelly

Brewers: McCormick, Brown and Perez

 

I would love this trade. Bohm is the type of hitter the Brewers should be targeting. High average, low strikeout (save his down 2021) hitter. More guys like this please.

 

 

I don't think Hoskins would give the Brewers anything more than Tellez and he is already making near $5M and is arby eligible. I don't know if Bohm is a high average guy or not. In 160 ABs in 2020 he hit .338, but then in over 2 1/2 times the ABs in 2021 he hit .247/.305. So far he has shown little power (11 HRs in 594 PAs). Urias easily shows as much upside and has a lot more power for 3B.

I like the Mets trade a whole lot better. Alonso is a ligit #4 hitter and Ramirez is a very nice prospect. Diaz would be a fall-back if Williams failed as a closer.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hader has been considered a top reliever in all of baseball prior to last season which was his finest to date. Better than just one of the top relievers in baseball tag he already had. There's something to the WPA that I thought he was like #1.

If that isn't worth a top 30 prospect plus another bottom 1/3rd in top 100 for 2years control plus clear compensation that will come that teams way when losing Hader to free agency. Then nothing is worth a two top 100 prospects. We can offer Mitchell and Small for Tatis and it's worthy. Just insane what the best WPA in MLB is regarded on trade value. He's been this good 3 of 4 seasons. And when he wasn't it was 2020. Why his value wasn't this last offseason.

[MrTPlush]

Hader has been considered a top reliever in all of baseball prior to last season which was his finest to date. Better than just one of the top relievers in baseball tag he already had. There's something to the WPA that I thought he was like #1.

If that isn't worth a top 30 prospect plus another bottom 1/3rd in top 100 for 2years control plus clear compensation that will come that teams way when losing Hader to free agency. Then nothing is worth a two top 100 prospects. We can offer Mitchell and Small for Tatis and it's worthy. Just insane what the best WPA in MLB is regarded on trade value. He's been this good 3 of 4 seasons. And when he wasn't it was 2020. Why his value wasn't this last offseason.

 

Mitchell and Small aren't worth renting Tatis for two months.

[adambr2]

Hader has been considered a top reliever in all of baseball prior to last season which was his finest to date. Better than just one of the top relievers in baseball tag he already had. There's something to the WPA that I thought he was like #1.

If that isn't worth a top 30 prospect plus another bottom 1/3rd in top 100 for 2years control plus clear compensation that will come that teams way when losing Hader to free agency. Then nothing is worth a two top 100 prospects. We can offer Mitchell and Small for Tatis and it's worthy. Just insane what the best WPA in MLB is regarded on trade value. He's been this good 3 of 4 seasons. And when he wasn't it was 2020. Why his value wasn't this last offseason.

 

Hader isn't even in the same stratosphere as Fernando Tatis in trade value. Come on now.

[NievesNoNO]

No, now isn't the off season. When the Brewers are no longer the best team in the Central and no longer a playoff team, that's when it will be the right time.

[monty57]

Hader has been considered a top reliever in all of baseball prior to last season which was his finest to date. Better than just one of the top relievers in baseball tag he already had. There's something to the WPA that I thought he was like #1.

If that isn't worth a top 30 prospect plus another bottom 1/3rd in top 100 for 2years control plus clear compensation that will come that teams way when losing Hader to free agency. Then nothing is worth a two top 100 prospects. We can offer Mitchell and Small for Tatis and it's worthy. Just insane what the best WPA in MLB is regarded on trade value. He's been this good 3 of 4 seasons. And when he wasn't it was 2020. Why his value wasn't this last offseason.

 

WPA is a fun little stat, but even the guy who came up with it said that he was making up a stat that would make relievers look more valuable.

 

Relievers are still the lowest rung on the "value ladder." When the Brewers made Hader a reliever, and then kept him there because "he was too important to the team when they're trying to compete" to give him a shot at the rotation, they greatly reduced his value in trade.

 

He is a dominant reliever, so he has value in trade, but nowhere near the value of a dominant starter or position player.

 

Put Hader on the market, and then put Woodruff or Burnes on the market next year when they have two years' service time remaining, and see what gets you a better return.

[JosephC]

It's been a few years since the Chapman and Miller trades happen. We haven't seen one even close to those since. I'd be willing to bet that the analytics has gotten to the point where 30 out of 30 MLB front offices have an analytics package that says even the top relievers are worth no more than 2.5 WAR per season.

 

My gut feeling is that if we do see a Chapman or Miller type return package for a reliever in the next few years, it will happen near the trade deadline where a GM has a meddling owner breathing down his neck, instructing him to do whatever it takes. I don't see one of those massive returns for a reliever happening during the off-season.

 

Hader's surplus value should be in the high 20's (million). That's a fair price for him. If a team would come along offering a deal worth about 40 million in surplus value, I would make the deal.

[Soupbone]

Can someone explain the way you figure surplus value please?

[Soupbone]

Also, if the Mets hire Arnold does that make any trade with them more or less likely?

[reillymcshane]

Can someone explain the way you figure surplus value please?

I think it is something like this:

 

STEP 1 - Calculate the 'value' you expect to get from a player over the length of time you have control over him. The typical way to establish value is using WAR (Fangraphs and Baseball Reference both have WAR values - and while they are often different, they tend to be fairly close in approximation).

 

The value of 1 WAR is around $8-9 million.

 

Thus, if you have a player who you predict will produce 5 WAR over a two year period - his value is estimated at $40-45M.

 

STEP 2 - Determine how much a player is going to make during the years of control a team has on a player. Pretty simple - just have to add up the totals.

 

STEP 3 - You then just minus the salary a player is expected to make from their estimated value. That's the surplus value.

 

So let's take the fictional player I mentioned in STEP 1. His value is $40m over the next two season (for simplicity's sake, I'm using $8m as the value of 1 WAR). Let's say he's due to make around $20M during that time.

 

$40m (value) - $20m (salary) = $20M in surplus value

 

There are probably other factors involved, but I think that's the gist of it.

 

The hard part is accurately predicting the future value of a player. There are formulas for this, but it's a very inexact process.

[Soupbone]

Thank you

[sveumrules]

Another way to think about surplus value is, if this player was a free agent what kind of contract would they get?

 

On one end there is someone like Yelich. If he was FA he'd probably be taking the QO (1/19) or signing for a shorter term to hopefully re-stablish value, say like 2/30 or something. Whatever number one settles upon, his negative value is more than a little cantakerous currently.

 

On the opposite end of the spectrum you have someone like Wander Franco. Under the current setup he has three years at like 2 million total salary, then even if he maxed out Arby's for three years that's only like another 60 million. If he was a free agent he would get a 300 million plus contract easy. His surplus value is so high he's virtually un-tradeable-for.

 

As far as Hader goes, he's probably gonna make almost 30 million in Arby's over the next two years. The biggest recent reliever contract was Liam Hendriks at 3/54, the biggest ever was 5/86 for Aroldis Chapman back in 2017. Split the difference, say Hader would get 70 million in FA & that puts his surplus value around 40 million. You think he deserves a record deal? Maybe its closer to 60 million.

 

Just for fun, here is Chapman 2012-16 (before signing record deal) vs Hader career...

 

Aroldis | 313 IP | 47 ERA- | 42 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 13.0 fWAR | +12.21 WPA

Josh | 282 IP | 53 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 11.0 rWAR | 8.8 fWAR | +13.35 WPA

[monty57]

Another way to think about surplus value is, if this player was a free agent what kind of contract would they get?

 

On one end there is someone like Yelich. If he was FA he'd probably be taking the QO (1/19) or signing for a shorter term to hopefully re-stablish value, say like 2/30 or something. Whatever number one settles upon, his negative value is more than a little cantakerous currently.

 

On the opposite end of the spectrum you have someone like Wander Franco. Under the current setup he has three years at like 2 million total salary, then even if he maxed out Arby's for three years that's only like another 60 million. If he was a free agent he would get a 300 million plus contract easy. His surplus value is so high he's virtually un-tradeable-for.

 

As far as Hader goes, he's probably gonna make almost 30 million in Arby's over the next two years. The biggest recent reliever contract was Liam Hendriks at 3/54, the biggest ever was 5/86 for Aroldis Chapman back in 2017. Split the difference, say Hader would get 70 million in FA & that puts his surplus value around 40 million. You think he deserves a record deal? Maybe its closer to 60 million.

 

Just for fun, here is Chapman 2012-16 (before signing record deal) vs Hader career...

 

Aroldis | 313 IP | 47 ERA- | 42 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 13.0 fWAR | +12.21 WPA

Josh | 282 IP | 53 ERA- | 60 FIP- | 11.0 rWAR | 8.8 fWAR | +13.35 WPA

 

Both of the deals you mentioned were around $17-18M AAV, which would mean that even if Hader gets a record deal (around $18M/year), his two-year total would be around $36M. If he gets $25-$30M in his final two years of arby, his surplus value would only be $6-$11M vs. what he could reasonably expect to make on the free agent market.

[brewers888]

Hader will get traded if and only if a team like San Diego is desperate enough to back up the truck. If that doesn't happen we will keep Hader until he reaches free agency where a big market team can pay him over 100 million for his down years.

[sveumrules]

Both of the deals you mentioned were around $17-18M AAV, which would mean that even if Hader gets a record deal (around $18M/year), his two-year total would be around $36M. If he gets $25-$30M in his final two years of arby, his surplus value would only be $6-$11M vs. what he could reasonably expect to make on the free agent market.

 

Right. Though both contracts were also longer terms than the 2 years that Hader has left, and both Chapman (age 29) and Hendriks (age 32) were older at signing than Hader (age 28) is now.

 

If Hader was a free agent & limited to a two year deal for some reason he should command a higher AAV than comparable relievers got when they were older & signing longer term deals.

[monty57]

Both of the deals you mentioned were around $17-18M AAV, which would mean that even if Hader gets a record deal (around $18M/year), his two-year total would be around $36M. If he gets $25-$30M in his final two years of arby, his surplus value would only be $6-$11M vs. what he could reasonably expect to make on the free agent market.

 

Right. Though both contracts were also longer terms than the 2 years that Hader has left, and both Chapman (age 29) and Hendriks (age 32) were older at signing than Hader (age 28) is now.

 

If Hader was a free agent & limited to a two year deal for some reason he should command a higher AAV than comparable relievers got when they were older & signing longer term deals.

 

True. I was just saying that if he were a free agent now, and signed the Chapman deal of 5/$86, in his first two seasons he would only get a little ($6-11M) more than he is likely going to get paid in arbitration. I don't think we'll get a "major haul" by trading him because as a reliever/closer, he's not that valuable even though he's really good at what he does. No matter how good he is, he's not more valuable than a decent player at another position. During the offseason, it would be hard to find a GM who is going to give up a top prospect for a good reliever/closer.

 

As others have said, the best return for him would probably be at the trade deadline when emotions become more important than statistics and valuations. It's when emotions run high that bad decisions are made, like trading away a top prospect for a relief pitcher. The problem is, even if we could get a "Chapman for Gleybar Torres" return next July, fans wouldn't want to make the deal if we were near the top of the division because we'd be "giving up during a playoff run."

 

Therefore, we will probably only maximize the return on Hader if we're out of the playoffs at the trade deadline in one of the next two seasons, which we shouldn't be with the pitching we have. I think we could get a decent player in return for Hader by trading him in the offseason, I just wouldn't expect a monster return.

 

The question is whether a decent young player at a position of need, plus around $25M over the next two years to sign a free agent is worth not having Hader as the closer.

[nate82]

The Dodgers currently don't have an established closer on their team as Knebel and Jansen are both free agents.

 

I wonder if this offseason will be the offseason where the Brewers and the Dodgers finally link up and make a trade.

 

Something like this would work:

 

Dodgers: Hader

Brewers: Miguel Vargas, Jose Ramos and Hyun-il Choi

 

Vargas is an absolute stud at 1B and should provide 30+ HR each year plus carry a BA in the .290 range. He should be ready to play in MLB at some point next year. Jose Ramos is another that I like a lot and could make the Brewers OF really crowded in the next 3-years. Choi is very raw but looks to be a #3 type pitcher but he is farther out than Vargas and Ramos probably looking at another 3-4 years for him.

 

I think this deal makes the most sense for the Brewers and I don't see the Dodgers subtracting from their MLB team and I don't see anyone I would want to trade for in a Hader deal on their MLB roster either. I think a prospect deal is the best deal when trading Hader as I think you are more likely to get a 90's era Brewer return if you are looking for MLB ready pieces.

[wntrtxn21]

The Dodgers currently don't have an established closer on their team as Knebel and Jansen are both free agents.

 

I wonder if this offseason will be the offseason where the Brewers and the Dodgers finally link up and make a trade.

 

Something like this would work:

 

Dodgers: Hader

Brewers: Miguel Vargas, Jose Ramos and Hyun-il Choi

 

Vargas is an absolute stud at 1B and should provide 30+ HR each year plus carry a BA in the .290 range. He should be ready to play in MLB at some point next year. Jose Ramos is another that I like a lot and could make the Brewers OF really crowded in the next 3-years. Choi is very raw but looks to be a #3 type pitcher but he is farther out than Vargas and Ramos probably looking at another 3-4 years for him.

 

I think this deal makes the most sense for the Brewers and I don't see the Dodgers subtracting from their MLB team and I don't see anyone I would want to trade for in a Hader deal on their MLB roster either. I think a prospect deal is the best deal when trading Hader as I think you are more likely to get a 90's era Brewer return if you are looking for MLB ready pieces.

 

IF Stearns has fixed the offense before the trade, I'd be for it although IMO a Vesia/Vargas for Hader would help more. Vargas hasn't seen AAA yet, but so far looks like the real deal. Vesia would help fill the later innings hole left by Hader.

[jay87shot]

I would want really want 2 top 100 level prospects for Hader and then maybe a 3rd lesser value piece. Bobby Miller or Diego Cartaya, Vargas, and maybe Alex Vessia or Mitch White. Remember we only trade Hader if we overwhelmed.

 

Kimbrel got Madrigel, and a reliever on less time, more money, and Kimbrel had 2 rougher seasons before this year. Hader should get a substantially better return.

[JosephC]

Brewers get-

1B - Matt Olson

RHP - Lou Trivino

 

Dodgers get-

LHP - Josh Hader

 

A's get-

1B - Rowdy Tellez

OF - Andy Pages

SS - Brice Turang

RHP - Clayton Beeter

OF - Carlos Rodriguez

[markedman5]

https://fansided.com/2021/11/15/mlb-trade-rumors-gm-meetings/