Is this offseason time to trade Hader?

[Roderick]

I'll give you a topic. Talk Amongst Yourselves

 

 

From 1 looming question for every MLB team:

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/looming-question-for-every-mlb-team

 

Brewers: Time to think about trading Josh Hader?

Obviously, the Brewers love what Hader gives them; the notion they would even let the idea of trading him enter the conversation has all to do with business and nothing to do with performance or intangibles. He is in the conversation for the most valuable reliever in baseball, with a 44.2% strikeout rate that ranks as the best all-time among pitchers who have logged at least 10 innings in the Major Leagues. He is earning a $6.675 million base salary in 2021 after the latest of his arbitration cycles, and he has two more years of club control in ‘22 and ‘23 before he reaches free agency. His value could not be higher at the moment. The Brewers have received calls on Hader in recent years and the asking price was said to be “overwhelming,” as one official put it to FanSided’s Robert Murray earlier this year. As Hader inches closer to the potential of an eight-figure annual salary, would the Brewers consider accepting an offer if another team overwhelms them with a massive haul of Major League-ready talent? This will be the final winter that it can be said Hader has multiple years of control remaining. -- Adam McCalvy

[adambr2]

I think their approach with Hader will be exactly the same as what it was last offseason.

 

If someone wants to pony up and give us an offer we can't refuse, we'll trade him.

 

If not, we'll be happy to pay him whatever he gets in arbitration to be our closer again in '22.

[pacopete4]

I think their approach with Hader will be exactly the same as what it was last offseason.

 

If someone wants to pony up and give us an offer we can't refuse, we'll trade him.

 

If not, we'll be happy to pay him whatever he gets in arbitration to be our closer again in '22.

 

Agreed. It is a great spot for the Brewers to be in. They are loaded with arms and can either have Hader shrinking games for them or reloading our talent pool. Maybe the thinking changes a bit if it is mission accomplished come November but I think this is the route they go this upcoming offseason.

[sveumrules]

The only pitchers with a higher Win Probability Added than Hader since his debut in 2017 are Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer.

 

My best guess is that no team makes an offer commensurate with that kind of value & Hader remains a Brewer.

[wntrtxn21]

I picked this up earlier off a Dodger chat site where they were roasting Jansen. I thought it looked interesting. Hader/Houser for Gonsolin/Vesia/Ferguson/Miller... I didn't know who Miller was until I researched it and saw he's a minor lg. pitcher.

[Outlander]

Hopefully the Brewers continue to be demand an overwhelming offer and take it if they get it. If not, he is worth what they pay him.

[MrTPlush]

I have always thought, still do, that you can’t really trade Hader and really be trying your hardest to win a World Series. Even if the Brewers got blown away those prospects still likely disappoint or totally bust. At best they probably aren’t major impacts in the coming years.

 

I’m just not a fan of it. Ride him to FA and take whatever compensation you get (even if nothing). Losing Hader is a blow to us in the regular season, but the potential loss coming October is crippling.

 

I wouldn’t even trade Williams, though I think he is a less of a sure thing long term. I mean…maybe if someone backed up an absolute dump truck, but I don’t think teams are as eager to do that for relievers anymore. This is how a team like the Brewers will win a World Series, trading that away seems foolish. It’s hard to see a better situation for the Brewers to win it all then we will the next few years.

 

If you want to replenish to farm, do it with Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff, Adames after the next few years and the team is falling apart. Why would we even trade Hader now? To reload for our sub .500 teams after 25/26? I don’t think there is any way to sugar coat it, this team is pretty much destined for a rebuild after about 2024. Trading Hader ain’t saving us from losing Adames/Burnes/Woodruff.

[AKCheesehead]

Plush, I agree with most of that. All of it really, other than: obviously if 2023 is a bust for whatever disastrous reasons I wouldn’t even want to guess, it’ll make sense to trade at the deadline.

 

And your 2nd to last sentence. Maybe so or maybe not. It’s kind of exciting to think of what the pipeline could be producing by the end of 2024.

[Soupbone]

But this is how Tampa Bay is always in the mix. When their players get to this point in their careers/cost they trade them for a bushel of prospects. You could say it works but you could say it doesn't. They have been consistently competitive but have not won it all. Hard for me to argue with either direction but I'm in the trade him camp because of the volatility of relief pitchers. I think Hader's highest off season value was last year but should have a lot of value this year if he stays healthy.

[pacopete4]

I’d argue we have been very consistent of staying competitive as well. The Rays have had a bit more playoff success but overall we’ve done well the past decade. I argue that the Rays have never had the situation we do right now. They’ve never been as talented pitching as we are currently. If there’s ever a time to go for it, it actually might be now.

[MrTPlush]

I always thought the Tampa Bay way was a bit overrated. It was much more trendy before they missed the playoffs 5 years in a row. Now it is rejuvenated again because of their COVID run.

 

As great as their model is, it has zero WS rings. Given, they have a miserable division to compete in, but if their way is that great to follow I would expect some more hardware.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think playoff appearances and overall w/l record is a pretty decent way to gauge if a team's strategy is working. Baseball playoffs are so random. Look at the Dodgers. 8 straight appearances and the only year they won it was the Covid year. That's probably not indicative of their true talent level.

 

If you're running a small market team, and consistently winning enough games to compete and make the playoffs, you're doing something right. Playoff baseball is weird. I'm not saying you shouldn't think about how baseball is played in the playoffs when you build your roster, but it's just not indicative of overall talent level. 5 and 7 game series don't normalize out at all. 2-3-4 guys have a cold snap at the wrong time or one Sean Marcum has a dead arm or your manager decides to start Mark Kotsay in CF for some reason, and that's all it takes in a short series.

[MrTPlush]

I’d be interested to see how much of the Tampa Bay Rays roster year to year is actually prospects/players that got via trading off a guy 2+ years from FA…or of course a player largely acquired with prospects from such a trade.

 

Because draft picks, FA signings, international signings, and guys acquired for rentals etc aren’t really applicable to the ‘Rays way’ that is often so highly touted.

 

Maybe a lot are, idk, but I’m guessing people referencing how the Rays build a team couldn’t even name how 3 of their 26 man roster were acquired. So is it actually built that way or is that a bit outdated from their last run of success?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Whatever Tampa is doing, they're doing well within their financial means.

 

Back to whether or not to trade Hader..... I'm gonna agree with the consensus here. We're in a competitive window, and we have a guy that's one of the top 2 or 3 or five closers in the game right now. He doesn't even really appear to be subject to the reliever volatility that strikes most guys. He's just that good that you can count on him to be downright dominant. He's not a "pretty good" reliever who has swings from good to ok years. He's just dominant. Even in his "bad" year when he gave up 15 dingers he still had a 170 ERA+ and a 3.10 fip.

 

Find a way to make it work until he becomes prohibitively expensive.

[clancyphile]

Whatever Tampa is doing, they're doing well within their financial means.

 

Back to whether or not to trade Hader..... I'm gonna agree with the consensus here. We're in a competitive window, and we have a guy that's one of the top 2 or 3 or five closers in the game right now. He doesn't even really appear to be subject to the reliever volatility that strikes most guys. He's just that good that you can count on him to be downright dominant. He's not a "pretty good" reliever who has swings from good to ok years. He's just dominant. Even in his "bad" year when he gave up 15 dingers he still had a 170 ERA+ and a 3.10 fip.

 

Find a way to make it work until he becomes prohibitively expensive.

 

Same here... even try to work out some sort of extension that keeps him here beyond free agency. Only if that fails, do you consider a deal, and even then, that deal has to be very careful (maybe to a fringe competitor who may not even make the playoffs) so as to not damage a given year's chance to win it all by having to face him in the playoffs.

[Austin Tatious]

Honestly, I like our roster. Re-sign Escobar and move on from Brett Anderson. Six starters with Woody, Corby, Freddie, Houser, Ashby, and Lauer. Small comes up mid-season.

 

So, no, I wouldn’t trade him. Let’s run it back and we will have fresh juice injected from the minors over time as it is.

[jjfanec]

I dont see him being traded for a couple reasons.

1. They are a world series contender right now.

2. We have a lot of key pieces locked in for the rest of his deal. We dont need to add much to stay a great team.

3. He is the kind of guy who could still net a haul at the trade deadline if the team regresses

[MrTPlush]

Honestly, I don’t see a reason to trade Hader. It isn’t like he is our one opportunity to restock the farm. If you are determined to restock the farm, play through Hader’s entire deal, and then look to trade someone (or more than one). After Hader’s final year you would have Woodruff/Burnes/Adames/Houser/Lauer all with one year left.

 

Glad I am not Stearns, he will have a lot of tough decisions come 2023/2024. If you are all about long term competing I could see trying to lock up Burnes/Adames. Then trade off Hader/Woodruff after 2022/2023. That keeps a solid pitching core going forward and a big bat. I just don’t know if A) they could afford to do it and B) have money to fill other holes even after. You’d really need to depend on our prospects working out.

[reillymcshane]

A a lights out closer is a luxury on a lot of team. But not on a really good club. I think we plan on being a really good team - so I'm all for keeping him. As people note - we have a window - let's maximize it with really good players.

 

All that said, if someone blows you away with an offer - you have to listen. But keep him price tag high.

[monty57]

Glad I am not Stearns, he will have a lot of tough decisions come 2023/2024. If you are all about long term competing I could see trying to lock up Burnes/Adames. Then trade off Hader/Woodruff after 2022/2023. That keeps a solid pitching core going forward and a big bat. I just don’t know if A) they could afford to do it and B) have money to fill other holes even after. You’d really need to depend on our prospects working out.

 

Well said. There are a wide range of opinions on the direction the team should go, but he's the one who has to sail the ship.

 

I would love to be able to keep the current guys together as long as possible, but at the same time I'd hate to go into a decade-long rebuild after losing a massive amount of talent in one offseason without getting something in return.

 

This board is fun for theorizing what we think may be the best move. Stearns actually has to do this in real life. I'm glad it's him and not me, and I'm excited to see what he does.

 

 

As to Hader, we have him for two more years, so my opinion is that this offseason Stearns can do exactly what he did last year. Tell everyone he's available for a big price tag and see if anyone bites. If not, then we have him one more year. As long as the team can afford him, keeping him or trading him this offseason is kind of a win-win proposition. It's the next offseason that the Brewers may be a little more pressured to trade him or risk losing him for nothing.

 

One thought is whether it might be better to offer contracts to Boxberger and Strickland, who are both FAs at the end of the season. You could probably have both of them for less than Hader costs, so if it came down to one or the other, would you rather keep Boxberger and Strickland, with Williams closing (and get whatever you get from trading Hader), or lose Boxberger and Strickland but hold onto Hader?

[clancyphile]

Well said. There are a wide range of opinions on the direction the team should go, but he's the one who has to sail the ship.

 

I would love to be able to keep the current guys together as long as possible, but at the same time I'd hate to go into a decade-long rebuild after losing a massive amount of talent in one offseason without getting something in return.

 

This board is fun for theorizing what we think may be the best move. Stearns actually has to do this in real life. I'm glad it's him and not me, and I'm excited to see what he does.

 

As to Hader, we have him for two more years, so my opinion is that this offseason Stearns can do exactly what he did last year. Tell everyone he's available for a big price tag and see if anyone bites. If not, then we have him one more year. As long as the team can afford him, keeping him or trading him this offseason is kind of a win-win proposition. It's the next offseason that the Brewers may be a little more pressured to trade him or risk losing him for nothing.

 

One thought is whether it might be better to offer contracts to Boxberger and Strickland, who are both FAs at the end of the season. You could probably have both of them for less than Hader costs, so if it came down to one or the other, would you rather keep Boxberger and Strickland, with Williams closing (and get whatever you get from trading Hader), or lose Boxberger and Strickland but hold onto Hader?

 

That is a very good question. Hader could get very expensive. If the Crew has to pay Hader $15 million a year, but could extend the trio of Strickland/Boxberger/Suter for a total of $8 million, and have that $7 million available for the farm system and scouting... perhaps it's better to go for the aggregate production, the additional farm/scouting resources, AND whatever haul Hader nets in a trade.

 

If the Crew can maintain a pipeline of good pitching... it may be smart to make a judicious Hader trade (say, for instance, to an AL team).

[MrTPlush]

The only problem is I am 95% confident what Hader will do, be one of the best relievers in the game.

 

Strickland had been garbage since 2017, Boxberger hasn't had this stellar of a season since 2014, and Suter is just a guy. Suter is going on 32, Boxberger is going on 34, and Strickland is going on 33. There is a reason we got these guys for peanuts and their trade value would be peanuts compared to Hader. I don't have a problem trying to bring back Strickland or Boxberger...either could be a solid value resigning. However, expecting them to replace Hader's value (or anything close to it) would be a recipe for disappointment. I would vote them being released by July over them repeating anything near their current results.

 

Realistically you keep Hader and then go back to diving in the muck for your new Strickland/Boxberger. Hope you can find another diamond in the rough. Even if we traded Hader I am not sure I would want to be spending decent money for mid-30s relievers with terrible track records. Not that I expect either to really find much on the open market. Maybe a 2 year deal.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Well said. There are a wide range of opinions on the direction the team should go, but he's the one who has to sail the ship.

 

I would love to be able to keep the current guys together as long as possible, but at the same time I'd hate to go into a decade-long rebuild after losing a massive amount of talent in one offseason without getting something in return.

 

This board is fun for theorizing what we think may be the best move. Stearns actually has to do this in real life. I'm glad it's him and not me, and I'm excited to see what he does.

 

As to Hader, we have him for two more years, so my opinion is that this offseason Stearns can do exactly what he did last year. Tell everyone he's available for a big price tag and see if anyone bites. If not, then we have him one more year. As long as the team can afford him, keeping him or trading him this offseason is kind of a win-win proposition. It's the next offseason that the Brewers may be a little more pressured to trade him or risk losing him for nothing.

 

One thought is whether it might be better to offer contracts to Boxberger and Strickland, who are both FAs at the end of the season. You could probably have both of them for less than Hader costs, so if it came down to one or the other, would you rather keep Boxberger and Strickland, with Williams closing (and get whatever you get from trading Hader), or lose Boxberger and Strickland but hold onto Hader?

 

That is a very good question. Hader could get very expensive. If the Crew has to pay Hader $15 million a year, but could extend the trio of Strickland/Boxberger/Suter for a total of $8 million, and have that $7 million available for the farm system and scouting... perhaps it's better to go for the aggregate production, the additional farm/scouting resources, AND whatever haul Hader nets in a trade.

 

If the Crew can maintain a pipeline of good pitching... it may be smart to make a judicious Hader trade (say, for instance, to an AL team).

 

I'm not saying either option is one the Brewers should pursue - I don't like the idea of paying Hader $15M a season as he ages into his 30s, but I'd much rather do that than extend replaceable relievers for any length of time and cost. The trio of Strickland/Boxberger/Suter can be replaced with league minimum or pre-arbitration relievers once they start getting even close to expensive. Giving a mid 30's journeyman reliever any sort of longterm extension is questionable with how volatile relievers of that caliber can be. I could see an attempt to give Suter a reasonable extension for a few more seasons if he'd be open to it, but he may actually want to find an organization that gives him another shot as a starter (and likely a larger contract offer).

 

I've been firmly in the camp of holding onto Hader through arbitration for several years, and trade him only if the Brewers aren't in contention at the trade deadline of his free agent year. He's too valuable to the success of this team to consider trading him when they have any thoughts of contending, which will remain the case for the forseeable future, and sometimes the best value you can get for a player is to have him pitch for you all the way to free agency and then not make the mistake of paying him a huge amount of money in free agency to watch him pitch in your uniform as he declines.

[sveumrules]

Hader's taken his dominance up a full notch this year, here's how his four non-pandemic seasons stack up...

 

2017 | 47 IP | 47 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 1.8 rWAR | 1.1 fWAR | 1.44 WPA

2018 | 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | 3.30 WPA

2019 | 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | 3.15 WPA

2021 | 50 IP | 34 ERA- | 41 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | 4.43 WPA

 

Anytime you decrease workload by 33% but increase Win Probability Added by 33%, you are doing something very right.

 

Even if Josh gets 15 million in Arby's, he's worth every single curly fry.

[narwhalattack]

Same approach as we’ve had the past few seasons- trade him if someone’s willing to pay a king’s ransom. Otherwise, no rush to send him out.