Cryptocurrency

[Joseph Zarr]

The Valkrye Bitcoin ETF was approved, though it's a futures ETF. As Mark Cuban said "Why buy futures when I can buy the real thing?" Should be a fun day on Monday when the markets open.

 

Fantom jumped a few weeks ago and Polkadot did last week, though I expect a continued big rise out of Polkadot. I think Avax will be a big mover next. Luna took a bit of a jump recently but I think it still has a lot of steam behind it. But overall I think the Tier 1 coins will bounce first followed by the ecosystems behind them. At least that tends to be the way of things with investment money that it trickles down in order of more secure gambles to less secure. People don't want to buy a Bitcoin that's already risen, so they move onto the next best thing and so on.

 

But 1Q and moving forward I really like gaming and gambling. It presents the most immediate use case for crypto along with some new ways consumers can spend money which doesn't exist yet. Plus we're due for a bear market soon which could last a year or so, and what tends to last in bear markets are projects with use cases compared to "what we'll eventually be able to do" projects, same as value stocks vs. growth stocks in the regular market.

 

I was thinking back to your post here recently: Holy biscuits were you right about AVAX. Well done! That sucker has blasted out of the $40's. I looked today and it is into the $100's. Hopefully you had some. Again, kudos.

[Joseph Zarr]

The ProShares futures ETF has a 1% fee. Grayscale has a 2% fee, and even free stock trading exchanges you're paying a market maker. Somebody somewhere is always making money off you/me.

 

I almost forgot that Robinhood offers crypto, too, but just a few of them. So it can depend on what you're looking to do, too. Some folks just want Bitcoin and Ethereum, and for that, Grayscale/Robinhood/futures ETF or waiting for a spot ETF is probably your best bet. But if you're hoping to find that next 10x, then you'll want a crypto exchange.

 

But yeah, when you get into it, for a good long while it'll feel like you're seven years old and you just lost your parents in Chinatown. But hey, you've always got us here!

 

I did an analysis of Grayscale a year or so back looking at the Premium buy and sell opportunities in Blood and Gains. It's fairly significant. I recall seeing 15-23% Premiums? WHich, I found fascinating. Still not fascinating enough to entice me not to hodl or buy the 'real' cryptos. In Canadia, one can actually Hodl the Grayscale offerings ( I believe? Not entirely sure) for their tax free retirement hodlings. Up yonder der I believe that is roughly a $61k CAD capacity. Speaking from memory.

[GAME05]

Thank you for that kind post. Unfortunately one of my faults in investing is I don't hold on to tokens long enough. I made some money off of AVAX but didn't catch the craziness. Fortunately, though, I'd moved it into FINA and Sandbox.

 

I'm thinking next week I may start pulling out 10% per week just in anticipation of the crash. Dunno. But I'm scared of holding too long and just eating a big dip.

[Joseph Zarr]

For the more 'Mainstream' adoptees amongst us:

 

I highly recommend the 'Donut' app and 'Fold'. Very easy DeFi adoption in Donut (I use it as a random depository Savings Account. Minimum 4% returns. Up to 10% for more aggressive allocation - this is DeFi so there is always risk the more percentages you seek and the less you know in the Dev Team) and extremely easy and friendly Bitcoin (satoshi) accumulations via online and in-store purchases using the Fold Debit/Credit card. An appropriate 2021 version of the 'Cash Back Rewards' or 'Airline Miles' programs. I use both. Both have very good customer service - which is always noteworthy for me in Crypto.

 

Additionally, I have friends currently using the BitcoinIRA.com offering. They love it. They earn a set Interest rate with their Bitcoin hodlings and they also experience the Gains in BTC on top. This is a fairly conservative option but good for those wanting to move part of their IRA allocations into a different asset. Apparently, their customer support has really been a plus. Again, always noted.

 

For DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging), at a set time and at a set allocation amount: Swanbitcoin.com has received very positive reviews amongst people I know.

 

As for myself, I am currently dabbling in the Osmosis Lab with a fraction of my Atoms stash. I love the Cosmos Ecosystem. I know Devs on different teams and this is a Group very into meaningful stuff and ease and community governance models. I have, to date, experienced nothing but positive things within the greater Cosmos Network. The Osmosis Lab is their version of an AMM and their Liquidity Pool and Keplr to Ledger wallet synch is quite easeful to date. Not for a newbie, per se, but all in all a fairly simple process. This isn't like setting up a Master Node synch in 2018. FFS, I have war stories. LOL.

 

Anyhow, hope the cryptos are flowing bountifully for all of you.

[GAME05]

Been a big learning year for me especially in terms of taking profits and using volatility to my advantage. My value-investing background says "The best time to sell is never," which doesn't so much apply to this market. I'm looking forward to next year now that I have a better sense of taking profits when a token reaches something of a high. I plan on checking the Fear and Greed Index a lot and using that as the big indication of whether I should be in or out of the market.

 

Also may look to stake a decent percentage next year, too. I'm feeling like I'm a bit over-leveraged with what I'm actively trading, and so staking an L1 coin should be good to be able to ignore some of the ups and downs but make a small amount of interest on it.

[Joseph Zarr]

Been a big learning year for me especially in terms of taking profits and using volatility to my advantage. My value-investing background says "The best time to sell is never," which doesn't so much apply to this market. I'm looking forward to next year now that I have a better sense of taking profits when a token reaches something of a high. I plan on checking the Fear and Greed Index a lot and using that as the big indication of whether I should be in or out of the market.

 

Also may look to stake a decent percentage next year, too. I'm feeling like I'm a bit over-leveraged with what I'm actively trading, and so staking an L1 coin should be good to be able to ignore some of the ups and downs but make a small amount of interest on it.

 

Yeah, Profit Taking is very tricky in trading. Trades, in general, are very tricky - regardless of what any Trader tells you. I have professionally trained in the ForEx Market and the Crypto Market (via the Van Tharp Institute and Pro Act Traders). The profit-taking portion and, hell, the trade management portion is all extremely challenging. In Crypto, the challenge is always the Stop Loss and evaluation of a meaningful R:R ratio. I created metrics and I automated and I still found it challenging. Ultimately, when I took meaningful profit I set aside a large chunk of money I didn't care if it went upside down. Now, I just stake and LP in DeFi. It makes for an infinitely more enjoyable life for me. Last winter I was staying up through the London session and then rising for the NY Session out here on the West Coast. It was awful for my physical and inevitably mental well-being. Best of luck with that. If you ever want to shoot some of your thinking my way I'd be happy to engage and discuss.

[GAME05]

Thanks. Since you mentioned LP (?) and DeFi staking, I was reading that it's considered high-risk because if the market goes down a lot in the time you have it staked, you risk your assets being liquidated. Is that true? I'd been thinking I'm a bit over-leveraged and so I wanted to do something else with a chunk of my money. So all I could think of is staking non-Tether stablecoins. Otherwise I was just going to long-term-hold a bigger project like Solana or Avax after this current bubble settles down and then just ignore any dips.

 

I feel confident I'll do a better job taking profits next year. Plus I hopefully have a second income coming which will be used as my "buy the dips" fund.

[Joseph Zarr]

Thanks. Since you mentioned LP (?) and DeFi staking, I was reading that it's considered high-risk because if the market goes down a lot in the time you have it staked, you risk your assets being liquidated. Is that true? I'd been thinking I'm a bit over-leveraged and so I wanted to do something else with a chunk of my money. So all I could think of is staking non-Tether stablecoins. Otherwise I was just going to long-term-hold a bigger project like Solana or Avax after this current bubble settles down and then just ignore any dips.

 

I feel confident I'll do a better job taking profits next year. Plus I hopefully have a second income coming which will be used as my "buy the dips" fund.

 

I personally wouldn’t do the majority of DeFi - especially if I don’t individually know the people behind the Projects/Pools. It is extremely risky as you are willingly Bonding your crypto hodlings with no contract. You are saying you have faith in the Actors - not only will they follow through consistently for you and the purported yields but you trust their Security.

 

This being said, I am very familiar with several of the Devs and CEOs in the Cosmos Ecosystem. They realize, now, The Gravity Dex was a mistake in the Cosmos Hub. The Osmosis Lab is awesome. Sunny was a key player at Tendermint for 4-5 years. I have a Trust factor with the community I don’t have elsewhere. It is still risky, yes, but I don’t play with all my Hodlings just a portion.

 

The risk in Bonding to a Liquidity Pool ‘shouldn’t’ be losing your crypto. The risk is the devaluation depending on your fixed bonding period. AND, the risk could be you’ll end up with more of a coin you don’t necessarily want to Hodl if the other in the pair rises in value commensurate to the other. Howver, you can hedge this, by pairing with Stablecoins (to a large extent - it isn’t full proof but it is pretty good).

 

Hopefully that answers your questions.

[GAME05]

That does help, thank you. About what I thought the downsides were, but being told assets could be liquidated really confused me. I'm confident enough staking the Avax/Cosmos/Sol of the world, so I'll eventually have to take a deeper look and see what the APY is for them. I'll give Osmosis a look, thanks for the suggestion.

[Joseph Zarr]

That does help, thank you. About what I thought the downsides were, but being told assets could be liquidated really confused me. I'm confident enough staking the Avax/Cosmos/Sol of the world, so I'll eventually have to take a deeper look and see what the APY is for them. I'll give Osmosis a look, thanks for the suggestion.

 

You're welcome.

 

My set up was about as easy as it comes in crypto: Download Keplr wallet as Brave extension. Synch Ledger Nano X to both Keplr and Osmosis. Plug. And. Play.

 

The only aspect of this set-up that is impacted is 'Ledger Live' - there is a wonky ongoing synch issue w/ Ledger Live and Keplr whereby Keplr overrides the Live Block Feed. BUT, it isn't a big deal whatsoever. I've actually preferred using Keplr's interface as I can choose which fee I want to use to 'Claim Rewards' or 'Stake'. On Ledger Live, the bonus is you can bypass a Claim and then a Stake by Compounding within the App. Anyhow, IF you do venture over to Osmosis, I'd recommend looking at the UST/OSMO hedge as a component of your LP. I am currently using UST/OSMO, ATOM/OSMO, and OSMO/SCRT (Still 75 Epochs of SCRT external incentive payouts). I really like the team at 'Secret Network' and feel as tho there will be a very recognizable need for layers of Smart Contract security and identity protection as CosmWasm evolves and the Eth Gravity Bridge takes shape.

 

My $0.02.

 

EDIT to Add: Just as a heads up, the Staking Rewards for OSMO arrive in 24/hr intervals (Mine arrive daily at 9:35-10am PST). It's not like ATOM whereby it is accruing as each Block matures and you see your payout by the minute. The LP pools are a shared reimbursement of all Swap and Bonding Fees on a per Pool basis and a 'Per Amount Invested' basis relative to these criteria. You can Vote on Propositions in the 'Governance' Icon of each entity via your Keplr Wallet OR it will Link direct via the Osmosis Lab Menu. IF that interests you.

[LouisEly]

$3.2B in crypto-currency stolen in 2021, up >500% over 2020, 72% from defi platforms.

 

I'd rather hold indirect in an ETF or OTC than directly hold currency.

[GAME05]

No doubt the problem will only get worse. Not to mention all the people who lost money because they accidentally sent it to the wrong address.

 

 

Still holding my coins. I think I just started to get bored and stopped paying such close attention to the market every day. And now that it's down I feel like now's a terrible time to sell. I sold out last week in the regular market, so that sure timed nicely, but not so with crypto.

[GAME05]

What programs are you guys using to sync up your holdings for tax accounting? I'm trying a couple but they either have trouble grabbing everything or all I get out of it is a mess of numbers.

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Have a bit of cash that I could add to the market, but I haven't decided yet whether the market is at a bottom or it has further down to go, so I figure it's best to just hold as cash for a while longer and see what happens. Although MonkeyBall got a ton of hype and is way down right now. DTravel is also way down.

[Joseph Zarr]

What programs are you guys using to sync up your holdings for tax accounting? I'm trying a couple but they either have trouble grabbing everything or all I get out of it is a mess of numbers.

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Have a bit of cash that I could add to the market, but I haven't decided yet whether the market is at a bottom or it has further down to go, so I figure it's best to just hold as cash for a while longer and see what happens. Although MonkeyBall got a ton of hype and is way down right now. DTravel is also way down.

 

Koinly has proven very valuable for tracking every transaction on anY crypto CEX. I have my work cut out for me this year, however, as I have to go On Chain and track my staking and LP yields.

[GAME05]

Digital Asset News the other day mentioned cryptotrader.tax, and it looks like that will be in the neighborhood of $100 to do the uploads and forms, so I'll probably use that.

 

I had been trying CoinTracker.io, but it doesn't read Metamask and the forms it was getting me were a mess.

 

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I bought Moonbeam (GLMR) way way way too early yesterday before it really had the chance to settle down from the KuCoin listing. Took a big hit on that. Up a lot today though I'm still not even.

 

Nice to see what the market has been doing lately overall. Folks really over-reacted to the Fed rate increase even though everyone knew it was coming. Instead they just pulled all their money out of everything. But people don't tend to hold majority cash long-term, so I'm optimistic this year that as folks buy back in they may well do so via crypto because they're still market-averse with more rate hikes coming. We never really saw that "market is going crazy!" rise like in 2013 and 2017, but I guess the converse of that is maybe maybe maybe we don't really see the same fall. Volatility is more fun and more profitable, though.

[Joseph Zarr]

Digital Asset News the other day mentioned cryptotrader.tax, and it looks like that will be in the neighborhood of $100 to do the uploads and forms, so I'll probably use that.

 

I had been trying CoinTracker.io, but it doesn't read Metamask and the forms it was getting me were a mess.

 

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I bought Moonbeam (GLMR) way way way too early yesterday before it really had the chance to settle down from the KuCoin listing. Took a big hit on that. Up a lot today though I'm still not even.

 

Nice to see what the market has been doing lately overall. Folks really over-reacted to the Fed rate increase even though everyone knew it was coming. Instead they just pulled all their money out of everything. But people don't tend to hold majority cash long-term, so I'm optimistic this year that as folks buy back in they may well do so via crypto because they're still market-averse with more rate hikes coming. We never really saw that "market is going crazy!" rise like in 2013 and 2017, but I guess the converse of that is maybe maybe maybe we don't really see the same fall. Volatility is more fun and more profitable, though.

 

Hopefully you got into some version of Osmosis. Since entering that space, they've now achieve top 3 DEX status and the OSMO coin itself has more than doubled with lotta Upside potential in the Future Pastures. Today, they still are pumping out 110% APR on the ATOMOSMO pairing which is bonkers. Anywho, as always, with all LP work (there are now double Stable Coin 30% Plus LP Pools fwiw - in the broader crypto space) One has to consider their risk parameters; impermanent loss in BOTH directions etc.

[GAME05]

No, haven't staked anything just yet. I've been waiting for the bottom of the market to start doing all that. I didn't sell at the end of November like I should have, so now I'm hoping for maybe one more week of green, then cash out and hold until the market bottoms out.

[Joseph Zarr]

No, haven't staked anything just yet. I've been waiting for the bottom of the market to start doing all that. I didn't sell at the end of November like I should have, so now I'm hoping for maybe one more week of green, then cash out and hold until the market bottoms out.

 

Right. Forgot you mentioning that earlier.

 

For now, it would appear nobody really knows where the Bottom is. I mean, I read quite a bit of Market news and it is all just as conflicted as the Sideways Box price action we are currently experiencing. One thing I have read in several places, however, is the majority of Exit velocity right now has been from the Retail Markets while the 'Big Boys' have been increasing their positions with each touch around $40k. Naturally, this means little if they go lower. LOL.

[thebruce44]

I think retail exited over the summer thanks in part to Elon and the rest of the shenanigans that were happening. There wasn't enough excitement in Nov/Dec to overcome all of the FUD and Omnicron news. Without a blow off top, there shouldn't be a crash (this isn't a crash) and I don't think we are entering a prolonged winter. It seems like the whales and long term holders are continuing to hold and buy more. Good news (the ETH merge?) could get things restarted and maybe we finish this cycle just 6 months late.

[Joseph Zarr]

Cosmos literally just lept past 10 projects in 24 hours to enter the Top 20 (currently 16th) in Market Cap for the first time in its existence. Incredible. Osmosis Zone just leap-frogged Pancake Swap. What a wild n wooly start to 2022 for my favorite ecosystem in all of Crypto.

[Joseph Zarr]

I think retail exited over the summer thanks in part to Elon and the rest of the shenanigans that were happening. There wasn't enough excitement in Nov/Dec to overcome all of the FUD and Omnicron news. Without a blow off top, there shouldn't be a crash (this isn't a crash) and I don't think we are entering a prolonged winter. It seems like the whales and long term holders are continuing to hold and buy more. Good news (the ETH merge?) could get things restarted and maybe we finish this cycle just 6 months late.

 

I agree with everything you are saying here. I would add: Retail has been exiting in the past month as well during the 'test' of $40k. I was speaking specifically to that. On chain data shows this - and, indeed: whales have been accumulating and exiting with their newly accumulated stashes. In some form or fashion, the Big Kahunas are accumulating for something much bigger.

[GAME05]

Based on not a huge ton I keep thinking 32k might be right around the bottom. A friend of mine thinks 29. Kinda same difference, though either way I just have a hard time seeing it fall much further, especially having seen it hit 67 not very long ago.

 

Long-term crypto folks sometimes have a way of dumping on Bitcoin holders because it doesn't offer the home run that the small stuff at least has the potential for. But you'd have doubled your money just playing the major highs and lows of it last year, which I don't exactly consider timing the market. Ignoring all the going-for-100x people that's an amazing return. Not counting this latest crash, gaming in general did something like a 5x last year. I'm still optimistic on the sector because right now the standard-bearer is Axie Infinity, which isn't even that special of a game, which says to me the formula is a valuable one and nobody has really capitalized on it yet.

[Joseph Zarr]

Based on not a huge ton I keep thinking 32k might be right around the bottom. A friend of mine thinks 29. Kinda same difference, though either way I just have a hard time seeing it fall much further, especially having seen it hit 67 not very long ago.

 

Long-term crypto folks sometimes have a way of dumping on Bitcoin holders because it doesn't offer the home run that the small stuff at least has the potential for. But you'd have doubled your money just playing the major highs and lows of it last year, which I don't exactly consider timing the market. Ignoring all the going-for-100x people that's an amazing return. Not counting this latest crash, gaming in general did something like a 5x last year. I'm still optimistic on the sector because right now the standard-bearer is Axie Infinity, which isn't even that special of a game, which says to me the formula is a valuable one and nobody has really capitalized on it yet.

 

Hard to say at this point. BUT, going by the extremely conservative but long-held overall Market View: All we have seen to date is Higher Highs and Higher Lows. IF, and I mean IF, we find a Bottom above $28-29k and the Makers don't spend any time settling the CME Futures Gaps at $18kish and $25kish, we are still Trending. And, at this stage, that is about all I can say.

[Joseph Zarr]

Just here to shill ATOM and Cosmos again. LOL.

 

Osmosis Zone opened 25% Superfluid Staking today. This is literally the only project in all of crypto affording this type of access in DeFi. So, we pair ATOM/OSMO in a 74% APR liquidity pool. AND, then, you can stake 25% of your 50/50 split of Osmo (currently) into a Validator staking pool. In other words, a 99% payout in OSMO. The interface, the offerings, etc. they just continue to blow me away. Osmosis Zone is incredible. Then, if one was so fancied, they could take any aspect of the reward and stake it in Osmo on a standard Validator interface (80% APR currently and maintain governance votes). Both are afforded AirDrop liquidity status.

 

This summer, Quicksilver Zone is launching. I'm all aboard that train.

 

 

Carry on, gents. Carry on.

[GAME05]

Well, down roughly 70% on owned assets, but at the same time buying as much as I can right now. Sure, maybe we'll see a 25k Bitcoin or maybe even 20k, but you'd think we gotta be at least somewhere near the bottom........maybe.

I wasn't in crypto but I recall a $0.02 Cardano as the bottom of the 2018 Crypto Winter, and of course we were all jealous of all the folks who were able to buy at that point and see it climb to $2.80, so hopefully now is that same sorta moment.

I'm usually more into gaming/metaverse, but I may have to eat whatever losses and move things to more-secure L1s, because along with that $0.02 Cardano there were plenty of other projects which died permanently.