Playoff Picture for 2021

[nate82]

Should be an interesting weekend next week. The Brewers could clinch the NL Central next weekend against the Cubs while the Reds play the Dodgers and the Cardinals play the Padres and the Giants play the Braves. The Phillies also play the Mets next weekend with all of those games being playoff deciding games as the season starts to wind down I don't think MLB could have planned this any better in the NL. In the AL next weekend the only playoff contenders playing each other are the Angels and A's.

[BruisedCrew]

Scherzer has issued the seemingly daily no hitter watch.

 

Perfect through 7 with only 80 pitches, no big deal for a veteran workhorse.

[Eye Black]

I want the Dodgers to end up in the Wild Card game, but the Reds and Padres seem so hapless that it feels like the Dodgers beating either at home would be a mere formality. Obviously anything can happen in a one game situation, but it would feel like a massive upset for the Dodgers to exit while hosting a WC game.

[BruisedCrew]

I want the Dodgers to end up in the Wild Card game, but the Reds and Padres seem so hapless that it feels like the Dodgers beating either at home would be a mere formality. Obviously anything can happen in a one game situation, but it would feel like a massive upset for the Dodgers to exit while hosting a WC game.

 

Then let them move on to play the Giants who, after having the Dodgers catch them (thanks to the Brewers) now seem to be intent on staying in front.

 

Now is the time for the Reds to take advantage of those 10 games with the Pirates that I thought in August gave them a chance to make a move on the Brewers. Hopefully the Cardinals tougher schedule will hold them back, but they are reminding me of the comments about cheap underwear: “they keep creeping up on you”. They are now just one game out of that second WC spot.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Don't tell my neighbors or students, but I am secretly hoping that LA hosts one of those flawed teams in a one game playoff, and the baseball deities proclaim that someone like Votto or Grisham will go nuts and leave the Dodgers a smoking and despairing crater of overindulgent luxury tax agony. Then said flawed team can go back to being mortal and flawed and the remainder of the playoffs can continue with a slightly more level playing field.

 

That doesn't seem super likely right now, though. And I have to be careful what I wish for lest the Cardinals get their seemingly every decade or so dose of ridiculous luck and get hot at just the right moment...

[adambr2]

We'll probably roll into the playoffs, steamroll the Braves, and on the other side, the Cardinals will sneak into the 2nd WC, upset the Dodgers, get by the Giants and then beat us in like 6 games. That just seems like something that would happen.

[DuWayne Steurer]

We'll probably roll into the playoffs, steamroll the Braves, and on the other side, the Cardinals will sneak into the 2nd WC, upset the Dodgers, get by the Giants and then beat us in like 6 games. That just seems like something that would happen.

 

 

No thanks. I don't feel like watching re-runs.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I want the Dodgers to end up in the Wild Card game, but the Reds and Padres seem so hapless that it feels like the Dodgers beating either at home would be a mere formality. Obviously anything can happen in a one game situation, but it would feel like a massive upset for the Dodgers to exit while hosting a WC game.

 

Just making the Dodgers play the wildcard game and hopefully having to use one of Buehler/Scherzer, then have to beat a Giants team with their pitching staff lined up exactly how they want it in a short 5 game set is reason enough to want the Dodgers in the WC round no matter what....

 

Plus, either the Reds or Pads at least have enough starting pitching to potentially pitch a gem and plenty of offense to win a one game winner-take all format.

[Brewcrewin07]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

[sveumrules]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

The Brewers were frustrating for a couple two tree weeks there in May, but ever since the Adames trade they've been pure entertainment.

 

Love that San Francisco is having the season everyone was so sure San Diego was going to have after they "won" the offseason.

[82brewcrew82]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

The Brewers were frustrating for a couple two tree weeks there in May, but ever since the Adames trade they've been pure entertainment.

 

Love that San Francisco is having the season everyone was so sure San Diego was going to have after they "won" the offseason.

They are only two games behind the Dodgers in the loss column. I think that is within "sniff" range. Only one behind the Rays in the loss column. Five behind the Giants which seems a bit more insurmountable but there are some interesting series coming up for those teams in the NL races so who knows. Since the break I think only the Rays have a better record than the Brewers. The Brewers really are right there with the best teams in baseball.

 

Honestly, probably one less COVID outbreak from being right there with the Giants.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

not at all.

 

NL central. 14 gm lead.

[rickh150]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

not at all.

 

NL central. 14 gm lead.

 

It’s still very possible.. very sniffable.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

This is really grasping at straws to find something to complain about with this team. It really isn't frustrating at all. Other teams being good is allowed.

[adambr2]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

Not whatsoever especially considering the #2 seed draw is probably the best draw in the NL.

[Eye Black]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

Not whatsoever especially considering the #2 seed draw is probably the best draw in the NL.

Agreed, I am rooting for the Giants to remain right where they are at the head of the pack. The ultimate threading of the needle for the Brewers would be finishing with the second best record in baseball behind only the Giants. That would give them the #2 spot in the NL which appears to be the most desirable playoff position, and home field in any possible playoff matchups (including the World Series) except for a potential NLCS matchup with the Giants.

[homer]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

The Brewers were frustrating for a couple two tree weeks there in May, but ever since the Adames trade they've been pure entertainment.

 

Love that San Francisco is having the season everyone was so sure San Diego was going to have after they "won" the offseason.

 

Yeah Milwaukee was below .500 45 games into the season.

[sveumrules]

While the season isn't over yet, it's far enough along that the general shape of how each team's summer has played out relative to expectations can mostly be determined. I used ZiPS for Preseason Projected Wins, FanGraphs for Current Projected Wins & Cot's for Opening Day Payroll.

 

Total deviation was around 243 wins, or about 8 wins per team so I used that as a rough breakpoint for the groupings.

 

With that said, here's my best attempt at some kind of vague 2021 Fan Excitement/Misery Index...

 

TEAM | PreProj Wins | CurProj Wins | Difference | OD Payroll

 

SFG | 75 | 103 | +28 | $149.5

MIL | 83 | 99 | +16 | $99.3

SEA | 73 | 86 | +13 | $73.4

TBR | 87 | 99 | +12 | $66.7

BOS | 79 | 91 | +12 | $180.1

COL | 63 | 74 | +11 | $105.5

 

Fanbases for just about everybody here should be pretty thrilled. SFG went from afterthought behind LA/SD to likely best record in MLB. MIL ran away with what was supposed to be a tight division. SEA is still alive for a playoff spot and have a little 2017 Brewers vibe going on. TB won the toughest Division in baseball with a bottom 5 payroll. BOS is looking like a Wild Card instead of a 4th place nonfactor. Only real here outlier is COL, who probably would have been better off underperforming by 11 games, but they're still 7th in attendance so the fans haven't seemed to care too much.

 

HOU | 88 | 95 | +7 | $187.6

DET | 70 | 76 | +6 | $80.8

CHW | 89 | 93 | +4 | $128.7

TOR | 87 | 91 | +4 | $135.2

CIN | 80 | 84 | +4 | $122.2

LAD | 99 | 102 | +3 | $247.7

PHI | 80 | 82 | +2 | $191.0

 

A group of clubs whose fanbases should mostly be pretty pleased, though there is a little more hanging in the balance. HOU, CHW & LAD are playoff locks. TOR, CIN & PHI are still alive. DET has looked better than expected.

 

CLE | 79 | 79 | 0 | $49.6

MIA | 68 | 68 | 0 | $56.9

OAK | 88 | 87 | -1 | $83.8

STL | 86 | 83 | -3 | $163.5

KCR | 77 | 74 | -3 | $88.9

NYY | 95 | 90 | -5 | $197.6

ATL | 91 | 86 | -5 | $131.4

LAA | 84 | 79 | -5 | $181.9

TEX | 66 | 61 | -5 | $94.7

PIT | 65 | 60 | -5 | $45.2

CHC | 81 | 73 | -8 | $147.8

NYM | 91 | 82 | -9 | $195.4

 

Here's where the real frustration starts to reside. ATL is the probably the only fanbase truly feeling good right now as Division favorites after losing Acuna, etc. Maybe OAK since they're still hanging in there in their typical fashion. STL, NYY & NYM are all still alive but weren't supposed to be fighting this hard with only three weeks left. CLE & MIA didn't spend or win. LAA eternally frustrating. CHC staring down the rebuild. KCR still stuck in neutral. At least PIT & TEX have Top 5 draft picks to look forward to?

 

BAL | 65 | 54 | -11 | $57.0

SDP | 98 | 85 | -13 | $174.1

ARI | 69 | 56 | -13 | $95.9

WAS | 83 | 67 | -16 | $183.1

MIN | 91 | 72 | -19 | $125.2

 

The real dregs. BAL has now lost 32 more games (& counting) than the next worst team since 2018, but oooh, that highly ranked farm system. SDP pretty much needs to make & win the Wild Card game to save their season. ARI at least is getting a Top 2 pick? Better than winning 13 more games than expected & ending up around .500 I guess. WAS, flags fly forever & they still have Soto. MIN, more like the Twin shhhhh, let's not talk about it.

[monty57]

Does it frustrate anyone else that with as well as this team has played all year and certainly since the ASB, that they can't even seem to sniff the Dodgers or Giants for the best overall record in the NL?? That's just crazy to me...and the Giants of all teams too.

 

Not whatsoever especially considering the #2 seed draw is probably the best draw in the NL.

Agreed, I am rooting for the Giants to remain right where they are at the head of the pack. The ultimate threading of the needle for the Brewers would be finishing with the second best record in baseball behind only the Giants. That would give them the #2 spot in the NL which appears to be the most desirable playoff position, and home field in any possible playoff matchups (including the World Series) except for a potential NLCS matchup with the Giants.

 

Yes, and since we're looking for ideals, I hope the Reds or Padres beat the Dodgers in the one-game Wild Card "series" to get them out of the picture.

[PeaveyFury]

SDP pretty much needs to make & win the Wild Card game to save their season.

 

As I noted earlier from a personal standpoint, it would really be enjoyable to watch SD throw prospects & cash all over and fall short.

 

Thanks for sharing the data. I do think it's worth noting the continued difference in preseason expectations and actual performance for the Brewers, who have consistently outperformed (especially Fangraph's) pre-season win expectations. I don't know what analysis & formula Stearns & Co are using that bucks these expectations so consistently, but they have seemingly found models that lead to outperformance vs. expected results.

[Fear The Chorizo]

SDP pretty much needs to make & win the Wild Card game to save their season.

 

As I noted earlier from a personal standpoint, it would really be enjoyable to watch SD throw prospects & cash all over and fall short.

 

Thanks for sharing the data. I do think it's worth noting the continued difference in preseason expectations and actual performance for the Brewers, who have consistently outperformed (especially Fangraph's) pre-season win expectations. I don't know what analysis & formula Stearns & Co are using that bucks these expectations so consistently, but they have seemingly found models that lead to outperformance vs. expected results.

 

I think one thing the Brewers do better than most organizations is utilize the entire 40 man roster to maximize the number of games won at the MLB level. We always seem concerned about impending 40 man roster crunches as guys near coming off the IL, trade considerations, or worries about prospects aging into Rule 5 status if they aren't tossed on the 40 man roster - Stearns and company seem to have an endless roladex of veteran players they bring in who somehow have surprising amounts of team control and options remaining to fill out roster spots 38-40 that can help the big league club win a few extra games without sacrificing unnecessary loss of service time to prospects who aren't ready to get thrown into the MLB fire yet, all the while maintaining flexibility across their organization.

 

One thing these models don't do a great job of, IMO, is weighing what having 40 man roster depth that can readily be used at the MLB level can do for teams to consistently win ballgames. Also, making early in-season trades like the one Stearns pulled off for Adames really throws preseason win projections in the dumpster.

Edited September 14, 2021 by Fear The Chorizo

[sveumrules]

Yeah, whatever internal projection system Stearns & company have come up with is definitely a step or three ahead of the publicly available systems.

 

At the same time, they were actually underperforming that 83 win ZiPS through their first 44 games before acquiring Adames. Once they did, the projections bought in & didn’t really look back after the first week of June…

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs?lg=NL&div=C&stat=div&year=2021

[BruisedCrew]

The Blue Jays torrid hitting didn’t get left behind in Baltimore.

 

Tonight they have 7 runs and 13 hits against the Rays through 5 innings as they continue their late run toward an AL Wild Card berth.

[adambr2]

The Blue Jays torrid hitting didn’t get left behind in Baltimore.

 

Tonight they have 7 runs and 13 hits against the Rays through 5 innings as they continue their late run toward an AL Wild Card berth.

 

Worth noting that a Tampa loss would put us in tie with them. And let's just say whether or not we finish ahead of the Rays, could indeed matter....

[Fear The Chorizo]

My goodness - if it weren't for all the games the Cards have left with the Brewers, I think I'd be inclined to say they were going to wind up winning that 2nd wild card spot rather easily because the Reds and Padres are cratering....hoping the Brewers win the last few series against them and the Reds take care of their own business with 13 of their final games against the Pirates/Nat so the Cards don't sniff the playoffs.

 

Sure seems like the Padres are a trainwreck right now....seats piping hot in that front office