Playoff Picture for 2021

[Eye Black]

For those planning ahead…

 

NLDS Game #1 (Home Game) - Friday, Oct. 8

NLDS Game #2 (Home Game) - Saturday, Oct. 9

NLDS Game #3 (Away Game) - Monday, Oct. 11

NLDS Game #4 (Away Game) - Tuesday, Oct. 12 (If Necessary)

NLDS Game #5 (Home Game) - Thursday, Oct. 14 (If Necessary)

 

NLCS Game #1 (Better Seed Hosts) - Saturday, Oct. 16

NLCS Game #2 (Better Seed Hosts) - Sunday, Oct. 17

NLCS Game #3 - Tuesday, Oct. 19

NLCS Game #4 - Wednesday, Oct. 20

NLCS Game #5 - Thursday, Oct. 21 (If Necessary)

NLCS Game #6 - Saturday, Oct. 23 (Better Seed Hosts) (If Necessary)

NLCS Game #7 - Sunday, Oct. 24 (Better Seed Hosts) (If Necessary)

 

World Series Game #1 (Better Record Hosts) - Tuesday, Oct. 26

World Series Game #2 (Better Record Hosts) - Wednesday, Oct. 27

World Series Game #3 - Friday, Oct. 29

World Series Game #4 - Saturday, Oct. 30

World Series Game #5 - Sunday, Oct. 31 (If Necessary)

World Series Game #6 (Better Record Hosts) - Tuesday, Nov. 2 (If Necessary)

World Series Game #7 (Better Record Hosts) - Wednesday, Nov. 3 (If Necessary)

[StearnsFTW]

It's all about the timing and luck. Sometimes snapping them up ASAP saves money. Other times you get burned and get major deals right before the game. I'd guess that getting in the door for Game 1 of the WS would be $6-800. The flow of the series would probably dictate the rest. There are a lot more seats available than the Finals so it's a bit of a different animal.

 

The opponent might matter as well. I'd guess Tampa will be different than the Yankees.

 

Guessing the White Sox would be the AL team to cause price to go way up, simply due to opposing team interest. Not sure any other team is likely to really travel to Milwaukee, the rest are a ways away. Earlier series tickets usually cost less, but since any fan not fossilizing hasn't seen a Brewers World Series I am guessing that will fuel any early games they hold. $800 might not be a bad guess. The Indians would have been a decent price comp had they not played the Cubs, who caused their home games to be way inflated cost wise.

 

On the flip side I would bet NLDS/NLCS tickets if/when they happen will be much cheaper than past postseason runs.

 

I resent the comment about fossilizing fans.

 

 

I'm 46. I was at game 3 of the 1982 WS.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It annoys me that the regular season bleeds into October.

[MrTPlush]

I actually booked my rooms for all the possible World Series situations. Thank you free reservation, cancel up to day prior, and special rate.

[BruisedCrew]

 

I resent the comment about fossilizing fans.

 

 

I'm 46. I was at game 3 of the 1982 WS.

 

I was 30 and attended all 6 postseason games. That took care of two consecutive weekends.

[sveumrules]

Rays, White Sox, Astros, Brewers, Dodgers & Giants look like locks for six of the ten spots. Remaining contenders with their odds from the various sources...

 

NYY: 76.7% FanGraphs | 54% 538 | 74.7% PECOTA

BOS: 57.0% FanGraphs | 69% 538 | 65.5% PECOTA

TOR: 51.9% FanGraphs | 52% 538 | 40.6 PECOTA

OAK: 10.7% FanGraphs | 14% 538 | 15.0% PECOTA

SEA: 5.6% FanGraphs | 13% 538 | 5.6% PECOTA

 

ATL: 82.3% FanGraphs | 84% 538 | 63.7% PECOTA

SDP: 44.5% FanGraphs | 32% 538 | 61.7% PECOTA

CIN: 39.2% FanGraphs | 47% 538 | 28.4% PECOTA

PHI: 21.6% FanGraphs | 25% 538 | 33.1% PECOTA

STL: 7.9% FanGraphs | 8% 538 | 2.3% PECOTA

NYM: 4.5% FanGraphs | 4% 538 | 10.8% PECOTA

[DuWayne Steurer]

so... 2 of the 3 projections have the pads back ahead of the reds. talk about poopin the bed.

[StearnsFTW]

 

I resent the comment about fossilizing fans.

 

 

I'm 46. I was at game 3 of the 1982 WS.

 

I was 30 and attended all 6 postseason games. That took care of two consecutive weekends.

 

Just amusing to me that 46 is fossilized.

[StearnsFTW]

Rays, White Sox, Astros, Brewers, Dodgers & Giants look like locks for six of the ten spots. Remaining contenders with their odds from the various sources...

 

NYY: 76.7% FanGraphs | 54% 538 | 74.7% PECOTA

BOS: 57.0% FanGraphs | 69% 538 | 65.5% PECOTA

TOR: 51.9% FanGraphs | 52% 538 | 40.6 PECOTA

OAK: 10.7% FanGraphs | 14% 538 | 15.0% PECOTA

SEA: 5.6% FanGraphs | 13% 538 | 5.6% PECOTA

 

ATL: 82.3% FanGraphs | 84% 538 | 63.7% PECOTA

SDP: 44.5% FanGraphs | 32% 538 | 61.7% PECOTA

CIN: 39.2% FanGraphs | 47% 538 | 28.4% PECOTA

PHI: 21.6% FanGraphs | 25% 538 | 33.1% PECOTA

STL: 7.9% FanGraphs | 8% 538 | 2.3% PECOTA

NYM: 4.5% FanGraphs | 4% 538 | 10.8% PECOTA

 

Man, oh man, did the Reds screw the pooch. Hilarious and completely predictable.

 

They're obviously not done, but they really blew a golden opportunity to get kicked in the face by the Dodgers/Giants.

[MrTPlush]

It was just a joke, you aren't fossilized, just old.

 

Not sure the Reds are blowing it that bad. They aren't playing well, but not like they lost 6 in a row. The Yankees are the team absolutely crapping the bed. They were in the first place WC spot with a 4.5 game lead a week ago. They have lost SIX games in a row and now only lead by a half game in the second WC spot. The Toronto Blue Jay have won 8 straight to come storming back into the race.

[tmwiese55]

And this weekend NYY play NYM, Mets have been playing better. While Tor plays Bal, Sea plays AZ, A's play TX. Also, Red Sox play White Sox. That AL Wild card could get really interesting. Tor is a fun team and Sea is such a weird one as to how are they are winning these games (plus longest playoff drought in bball) so it would be cool if these teams knocked off two of the biggest markets and the teams main media is obsessed with.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It was just a joke, you aren't fossilized, just old.

 

Not sure the Reds are blowing it that bad. They aren't playing well, but not like they lost 6 in a row. The Yankees are the team absolutely crapping the bed. They were in the first place WC spot with a 4.5 game lead a week ago. They have lost SIX games in a row and now only lead by a half game in the second WC spot. The Toronto Blue Jay have won 8 straight to come storming back into the race.

 

The Reds are circling the drain, losing multiple series' to poor teams over the last month. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals take 2 of 3 from them this weekend, if not outright sweep them. The Cards are doing what they typically do in September - play solid baseball. They just don't have the horses this year to be anything more than a possible Wild Card participant. Still, they probably have enough to pass up the Reds.

[DuWayne Steurer]

This is why it's just difficult to look at a schedule and say "team X should/will beat team Y and make up ground". It's MLB. Bad teams are gonna win 65 - 70 games. Counting on or assuming sweeps is just bad juju. The Cubs and Pirates have played spoiler several times the past few weeks. The Pirates are 4-3 vs the Cardinals in their last 7 games against them the last few weeks. The Cardinals "should" beat the Pirates. I'm sure there's Cards fans that say "WE SHOULD SWEEP THESE GUYS OMG", but that's just not how it works most of the time.

 

The Reds just aren't good enough. Their bullpen sucks. It's really hard to have a sustained run of success with a really bad bullpen. Reds BP ERA was 5.15 in the 1st half. It's 5.25 in the 2nd half. Their acquisitions haven't done a thing to help them get over the hump.

 

I'll correct my statement from earlier. The Reds really aren't blowing it... they're just a mediocre to slightly above average team. They had an opportunity with a soft schedule and they're just not good enough to take advantage of it. Bad teams beat good teams often enough, and they beat average ones even more so.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah that's what I meant. I've been saying all along that the Reds simply aren't very good. The thought that they would actually win the division was always laughable to me because they're simply not good enough.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Look at it this way, the Reds went through an extended hot streak just to get marginally back into contention - in large part to riding a crazy stretch by Votto and improved starting pitching. Their bullpen and any regression from their starters was going to prevent them from sustaining that run regardless of the competition they were facing. The Brewers separated themselves from the rest of the division with that insane June winning streak followed by consistently playing better than 0.600 baseball since then - there's no way they were getting caught with that level of play.

 

Looks like the Giants are about to at least go temporarily 4 games ahead of the Dodgers in the loss column with a win at the Cubs this afternoon....the inevitability for the Dodgers eventually passing them up for the division and avoiding the WC round altogether is pretty shaky with just over 3 weeks of schedule left.

[endaround]

The Reds are an 85 win team playing like an 85 win team. They have a shot due to the Padres getting injured and the weak remaining schedule (same reason Phillies still have a shot at the east with a negative run differential). Teams that have collapsed recently are the As (whose collapse no one is talking about, 62% to 10% in less than a month), and the Yankees (97% to 58% in 2 weeks)

[owbc]

It's just better for baseball if the Padres and Blue Jays get into those wild card games. Give the young starts some postseason exposure.

 

I'll laugh if the AL wild card game goes from Manfred's made-for-TV dream of Yankees/Red Sox to some combination of the Jays/A's/Mariners.

[82brewcrew82]

It was just a joke, you aren't fossilized, just old.

 

Not sure the Reds are blowing it that bad. They aren't playing well, but not like they lost 6 in a row. The Yankees are the team absolutely crapping the bed. They were in the first place WC spot with a 4.5 game lead a week ago. They have lost SIX games in a row and now only lead by a half game in the second WC spot. The Toronto Blue Jay have won 8 straight to come storming back into the race.

 

The Reds are circling the drain, losing multiple series' to poor teams over the last month. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals take 2 of 3 from them this weekend, if not outright sweep them. The Cards are doing what they typically do in September - play solid baseball. They just don't have the horses this year to be anything more than a possible Wild Card participant. Still, they probably have enough to pass up the Reds.

To be honest it seems like all of the team involved in the chase for the last two NL playoff spots are playing somewhere between meh and blah. I think I'd prefer everything to say like it is aligned now with the Reds eventually taking the wild card. I think if the Reds can line up Castillo for a one game playoff with the Dodgers, they would have a chance to beat them. I'm not particularly worried about the Reds, Giants or Braves in a playoff series. Not that those team couldn't bet the Crew, I just think the Brewers are better than the others.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think it's probably more important for the Brewers to catch the Rays than it is to cling to a dream of the #1 seed. It would be nice to know that if we get out of the NL we have the HFA no matter what. And with the DH it may be a more tangible advantage than hosting the Giants an extra game.

[BruisedCrew]

It was just a joke, you aren't fossilized, just old.

 

Not sure the Reds are blowing it that bad. They aren't playing well, but not like they lost 6 in a row. The Yankees are the team absolutely crapping the bed. They were in the first place WC spot with a 4.5 game lead a week ago. They have lost SIX games in a row and now only lead by a half game in the second WC spot. The Toronto Blue Jay have won 8 straight to come storming back into the race.

 

So, to put this in terms of the playoff probability projections, on August 27, according to FanGraphs, the Yankees had a 97.8% probability of making the playoffs. To use the terminology some have used on this site, it was “statistically over”. The Blue Jays on the other hand had a 4.6% chance of making the playoffs. They were statistically dead.

 

Now, two weeks later, the Yankees probability is at 53.8% and the Blue Jays are at 45.4%.

 

Just another reminder of how quickly and unexpectedly things in baseball can turn around. Now, maybe the Yankees will straighten out and claim a wild card berth. But if nothing else, this shows that a probability of 95% or more in baseball does not guarantee anything, and that a certain amount of that 95% includes scenarios that rabid fans will might not find very enjoyable. Like the Brewers in 1982 and 2008 who saw seemingly comfortable situations turn into final day nailbiters.

[BruisedCrew]

I'm not particularly worried about the Reds, Giants or Braves in a playoff series. Not that those team couldn't bet the Crew, I just think the Brewers are better than the others.

 

Just out of curiosity, what kind of probability do you associate with “not being particularly worried” about a team?

 

I know when I look at a baseball playoff game or series, I’m pretty happy if I think my team has a 50-50 chance, or maybe a little better than that, because it isn’t likely to be a lot better than that against any playoff caliber team. That being the case, I would be worried (or at least concerned) about any opponent. And that’s why the projected probability of the Brewers winning the World Series is only around 10%, which is close to the 12.5% that it would be if every game and series were considered a 50-50 toss up. The Brewers getting to the playoffs and having as good a chance as almost everyone else is all I ask, and this year we are getting it.

[PeaveyFury]

There seems to be some continued confusion about how probabilities and projections actually work, so I thought some clarification might be helpful:

 

A probability of something like 97% for the Yankees isn't designed to be static, it's going to fluctuate. If the Yankees had a 97% probability heading into the last month of the season to make the playoffs, that probability is only invalid should the Yankees actually miss the playoffs. If the probability declines to 40% and they still make the playoffs, that 97% prediction was correct. That 97% builds in scenarios where the Yankees' lead would shrink and such, as it has. So, as you'd expect, the odds have shifted because of the results. Until the results end up in the 3% where they don't make the playoffs, the initial projection is valid.

 

I hope that helps in clarification of the statistical assumptions. Application of the Yankees' scenario while still in progress doesn't accurately capture the outcome of the probability. Until the season is over and the actual results are known, the statistical accuracy of the projections are also not known.

[nate82]

 

So, to put this in terms of the playoff probability projections, on August 27, according to FanGraphs, the Yankees had a 97.8% probability of making the playoffs. To use the terminology some have used on this site, it was “statistically over”. The Blue Jays on the other hand had a 4.6% chance of making the playoffs. They were statistically dead.

 

Now, two weeks later, the Yankees probability is at 53.8% and the Blue Jays are at 45.4%.

 

Just another reminder of how quickly and unexpectedly things in baseball can turn around. Now, maybe the Yankees will straighten out and claim a wild card berth. But if nothing else, this shows that a probability of 95% or more in baseball does not guarantee anything, and that a certain amount of that 95% includes scenarios that rabid fans will might not find very enjoyable. Like the Brewers in 1982 and 2008 who saw seemingly comfortable situations turn into final day nailbiters.

 

I don't think you understand what projections or probabilities mean. There is context to the probabilities a 10 game lead and having a 90+% probability of making the playoffs is completely different than a 3.5-6.5 game lead and having a 90+% probability. The Yankees still have the higher probability of winning and we can see why the Brewers probability of 98% I believe it was back then is holding true now. Basically the Brewers are at 100% probability of making the playoffs as there are very few scenarios where they don't make the playoffs and even less probable scenarios where they don't win the division.

 

The 2008 Brewers never really had a comfortable lead like they have had this year at 9-10+ games. When the season starts to shorten those 9-10 game leads become very unlikely in losing. The collapse and the other team or teams going on a hot streak becomes less and less likely which means the probability of those things happening is like once in an every 10 or 15 years type of a thing. Even with 5-game leads that can be very unlikely a team catches them and wins depending on how many games are left to play. The probability calculations are also taking into consideration what games the teams have left and who they are playing which gives you the probability of something happening. The probability of the Yankees making the playoffs on August 27th was 97.8% which was taking into account who the Yankees were playing in those final games.

 

Probabilities also don't guarantee anything it is just stating that there is a probability of 97.8% of whatever will happen. That 97.8% probability may still be right even if the Yankees only win the wildcard by 1-game. You are conflating probabilities with something completely different. Again the probability of the Brewers winning the division is showing to be correct and there was no need to even panic in August like you were. You need to take these things in with the other variables that were out there a 10-game lead with 30 games left to play is completely different than a 3.5-6.5 game lead with 30 games left to play. You also have to take into account the Yankees had 3 spots that could win a playoff birth which also increases their probability of making the playoffs. Now that the probability is down to basically 2 spots their probability of making the playoffs has gone down.

 

Probabilities also have nothing to do with enjoyability or comfortable situations. The probabilities are just stating that it is X% probable that X team makes the playoffs nothing more and nothing less.

[82brewcrew82]

I'm not particularly worried about the Reds, Giants or Braves in a playoff series. Not that those team couldn't bet the Crew, I just think the Brewers are better than the others.

 

Just out of curiosity, what kind of probability do you associate with “not being particularly worried” about a team?

 

I know when I look at a baseball playoff game or series, I’m pretty happy if I think my team has a 50-50 chance, or maybe a little better than that, because it isn’t likely to be a lot better than that against any playoff caliber team. That being the case, I would be worried (or at least concerned) about any opponent. And that’s why the projected probability of the Brewers winning the World Series is only around 10%, which is close to the 12.5% that it would be if every game and series were considered a 50-50 toss up. The Brewers getting to the playoffs and having as good a chance as almost everyone else is all I ask, and this year we are getting it.

To be fair, you worry about almost everything. Having said that, i reject your question based on premise alone and reasons others have already stated better than I could. My statement was simply that I believe the Brewers are a better team than any of the three mentioned and do not fear matching up with any of them in a playoff series. The Dodgers, in my opinion, pose a larger threat. You continue to rehash an old argument that you were on the wrong side of before and still are, mainly as a failure to understand the subject matter (which, as noted, others have already pointed out) at hand which has nothing to do with my statement.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It was just a joke, you aren't fossilized, just old.

 

Not sure the Reds are blowing it that bad. They aren't playing well, but not like they lost 6 in a row. The Yankees are the team absolutely crapping the bed. They were in the first place WC spot with a 4.5 game lead a week ago. They have lost SIX games in a row and now only lead by a half game in the second WC spot. The Toronto Blue Jay have won 8 straight to come storming back into the race.

 

So, to put this in terms of the playoff probability projections, on August 27, according to FanGraphs, the Yankees had a 97.8% probability of making the playoffs. To use the terminology some have used on this site, it was “statistically over”. The Blue Jays on the other hand had a 4.6% chance of making the playoffs. They were statistically dead.

 

Now, two weeks later, the Yankees probability is at 53.8% and the Blue Jays are at 45.4%.

 

Just another reminder of how quickly and unexpectedly things in baseball can turn around. Now, maybe the Yankees will straighten out and claim a wild card berth. But if nothing else, this shows that a probability of 95% or more in baseball does not guarantee anything, and that a certain amount of that 95% includes scenarios that rabid fans will might not find very enjoyable. Like the Brewers in 1982 and 2008 who saw seemingly comfortable situations turn into final day nailbiters.

 

 

That's why it was 97% and not 100%.