Playoff Picture for 2021

[AdvantageSchneider]

Not to pile on but the Giants also had 4 games in September against the Dodgers while the reds don't have any left against us. The Giants took 3 out of 4 in September against the Dodgers. It's not unrealistic to think the Brewers could easily go 13-10 the rest of the way and make whatever the Reds do irrelevant.

[ecjimg]

Side Bar: If you ever have a chance to go to a Mariners game, their ballpark is really quite wonderful. An extremely comfortable and enjoyable baseball game experience.

 

I thought I was the only Seattle person on here! Agreed, one of the nicer ballparks in baseball + some of the lowest ticket prices for nice seats. There will be a San Diego-like resurgence in fan interest if they can ever make the playoffs.

 

But yes, you go to a game and look at the lineup and wonder how this team can possibly be where they are in the standings. Ty France is probably the guy who has quietly done the most other than Seagar/Haniger.

 

Hmm I have the opposite opinion. I found the stadium to be one is the least interesting of those I’ve been to and very expensive.

[Patrick425]

The now defunct Cool Standings site (I think FanGraphs says their projections are based on the Cool Standings model) had this chart showing the greatest collapses in MLB history up to 2011.

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/collapses.asp?i=1&sn=2007

 

These are based on the highest projected playoff percentages at any point in the season for teams that eventually missed the playoffs entirely.

 

The all time “leader” on this chart is the 1995 Angels, but the 51 Dodgers are second. Their peak percentage was 99.7% on August 13 when they held a 12.5 game lead over the Giants.

 

The chart shows several teams that failed to make the postseason after reaching or exceeding a probability of 95%. I think it’s safe to say that blowing an 11 game lead with 24 to play would be truly unprecedented. It’s a far cry from losing a 7 game lead in mid August.

 

One collapse that people often point to is the 1969 Cubs (year of the Miracle Mets). Only ranks 13th on the link you provided. However, the crazy thing about that year was that the Cubs had a 7.5 game lead with 41 games to play and not only did they not make the playoffs, they finished 8 games in back of the Mets. So, they actually could have had a 15 game lead at that point and they still would have missed the playoffs.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers have officially gotten to 100% odds to win their division.

 

I wonder if they also had the 1951 Dodgers at 100% too.

 

1951 Dodgers were up 5.5 with 22 games remaining on September 6th.

 

Brewers are currently 11 up with 24 games remaining.

 

1951 Giants (105 wRC+ | 88 ERA-) also appear to have been a better team than the 2021 Reds (102 wRC+ | 103 ERA-).

 

Playoff Odds obviously didn't really exist in 1951, but if they did I don't think they would have had the Dodgers at 100% on September 6th.

 

The collapse by the Phillies in 1964 was even more pronounced. They were up by 6 1/2 with just 12 to play. I was in 7th grade at the time and we used to get weekly news pamphlets. I'll never forget in late September there was one article that was titled "Teenager in World Series", and a story about Rick Wise who was up with the Phils as an 18 year old (he turned 19 on September 13, 1964). So whoever edited that newsletter, had Phillies at 100%.

 

Wise finally made it to the World Series in 1975 with the Red Sox. But he was hardly a teenager by then.

[BruisedCrew]

The now defunct Cool Standings site (I think FanGraphs says their projections are based on the Cool Standings model) had this chart showing the greatest collapses in MLB history up to 2011.

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/collapses.asp?i=1&sn=2007

 

These are based on the highest projected playoff percentages at any point in the season for teams that eventually missed the playoffs entirely.

 

The all time “leader” on this chart is the 1995 Angels, but the 51 Dodgers are second. Their peak percentage was 99.7% on August 13 when they held a 12.5 game lead over the Giants.

 

The chart shows several teams that failed to make the postseason after reaching or exceeding a probability of 95%. I think it’s safe to say that blowing an 11 game lead with 24 to play would be truly unprecedented. It’s a far cry from losing a 7 game lead in mid August.

 

One collapse that people often point to is the 1969 Cubs (year of the Miracle Mets). Only ranks 13th on the link you provided. However, the crazy thing about that year was that the Cubs had a 7.5 game lead with 41 games to play and not only did they not make the playoffs, they finished 8 games in back of the Mets. So, they actually could have had a 15 game lead at that point and they still would have missed the playoffs.

 

That’s why when I think about potential swings I also consider swings like that one, and ones experienced this August by the Red Sox, Mets, and Padres.

 

Losing 11 games in the standings in the last 23 games, which is what the Brewers would have to do now to avoid winning the division, is extremely unusual, if not completely unprecedented, for a team that is in playoff contention in September. But, falling 7 games or more in the standings with 45-60 games remaining is much less uncommon.

 

The 1995 Angels, who head this list, had an 8.5 game lead with 33 games left. But they lost the division not to the Rangers, who were in second place, but to the Mariners who were 13 games back on August 2 and still 11.5 games back on August 25.

Edited September 7, 2021 by BruisedCrew

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I realized today that if the Brewers are in a Game 7 of the WS I'll be on a plane during the game despite having tickets.

[BruisedCrew]

 

The collapse by the Phillies in 1964 was even more pronounced. They were up by 6 1/2 with just 12 to play. I was in 7th grade at the time and we used to get weekly news pamphlets. I'll never forget in late September there was one article that was titled "Teenager in World Series", and a story about Rick Wise who was up with the Phils as an 18 year old (he turned 19 on September 13, 1964). So whoever edited that newsletter, had Phillies at 100%.

 

Wise finally made it to the World Series in 1975 with the Red Sox. But he was hardly a teenager by then.

 

I also remember the 64 Phillies collapse. That one was memorable in part because the Phillies had been a doormat for most of the time that I was old enough to be aware of baseball and were just a couple of years removed from a historic 23 game losing streak. So, the second coming of the “Whiz Kids” was a big story. Their untimely 10 game losing streak while the Cardinals won 9 of 10 dropped them quickly from sure winners to mathematically eliminated.

[BruisedCrew]

I realized today that if the Brewers are in a Game 7 of the WS I'll be on a plane during the game despite having tickets.

 

That stinks. Should I give you my number in case you need someone to take the tickets if the Brewers are the home team?

 

I remember having tickets for a show on the night of game 7 in 1982. My wife didn’t even try to talk me into going and found someone else to go with her.

[BillScottCanRake]

I realized today that if the Brewers are in a Game 7 of the WS I'll be on a plane during the game despite having tickets.

 

#CrewIn6

[jjfanec]

I realized today that if the Brewers are in a Game 7 of the WS I'll be on a plane during the game despite having tickets.

 

I was on a plane for Game 7 of the NLCS a few years back. Paid for the internet access so i could be depressed on the flight

[Patrick425]

The now defunct Cool Standings site (I think FanGraphs says their projections are based on the Cool Standings model) had this chart showing the greatest collapses in MLB history up to 2011.

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/collapses.asp?i=1&sn=2007

 

These are based on the highest projected playoff percentages at any point in the season for teams that eventually missed the playoffs entirely.

 

The all time “leader” on this chart is the 1995 Angels, but the 51 Dodgers are second. Their peak percentage was 99.7% on August 13 when they held a 12.5 game lead over the Giants.

 

The chart shows several teams that failed to make the postseason after reaching or exceeding a probability of 95%. I think it’s safe to say that blowing an 11 game lead with 24 to play would be truly unprecedented. It’s a far cry from losing a 7 game lead in mid August.

 

One collapse that people often point to is the 1969 Cubs (year of the Miracle Mets). Only ranks 13th on the link you provided. However, the crazy thing about that year was that the Cubs had a 7.5 game lead with 41 games to play and not only did they not make the playoffs, they finished 8 games in back of the Mets. So, they actually could have had a 15 game lead at that point and they still would have missed the playoffs.

 

That’s why when I think about potential swings I also consider swings like that one, and ones experienced this August by the Red Sox, Mets, and Padres.

 

Losing 11 games in the standings in the last 23 games, which is what the Brewers would have to do now to avoid winning the division, is extremely unusual, if not completely unprecedented, for a team that is in playoff contention in September. But, falling 7 games or more in the standings with 45-60 games remaining is much less uncommon.

 

The 1995 Angels, who head this list, had an 8.5 game lead with 33 games left. But they lost the division not to the Rangers, who were in second place, but to the Mariners who were 13 games back on August 2 and still 11.5 games back on August 25.

 

I did a little more digging on the 69 Cubs team. They were up by 4.5 games with 24 games to play (Sept. 5th, 1969) and then finished 8 games out. So, they could have had a 12 game lead at that point and still missed the playoffs. They went 6-16 from Sept 6th to the end of the season, Met's went 22-5.

[owbc]

I realized today that if the Brewers are in a Game 7 of the WS I'll be on a plane during the game despite having tickets.

 

As an out-of-town fan, I've always targeted the pennant clincher. 2018 worked out really nicely because games 6-7 fell on a Friday-Saturday and game 6 was guaranteed a few days ahead of time. So I was able to get ahold of face value tickets and a cheap flight without much difficulty. I still think game 7 would have gone the other way if Taylor hadn't made that absurd catch to rob Yelich of a game-tying double in the 5th.

 

This year NLCS games 6-7 are on a Saturday-Sunday which is perfect, but it's probably going to take a miracle upset of LA to get the games in Milwaukee (assuming the Brewers survive the NLDS). And I really don't want to go to LA as a visiting fan in the postseason, although I think the tickets will be easy to acquire.

 

I have less interest in the World Series, the tickets are too expensive and it invites too many casual baseball fans. My wife went to a Nats World Series game in 2019 and described it as a "typical baseball game", although that might be more because of the location and the poor performance in the game by the home team. Milwaukee will probably have better WS crowds but I suspect it will still be hard to get in for under $500, while the NLCS was going for the mid-$100s in 2018.

[nate82]

 

I have less interest in the World Series, the tickets are too expensive and it invites too many casual baseball fans. My wife went to a Nats World Series game in 2019 and described it as a "typical baseball game", although that might be more because of the location and the poor performance in the game by the home team. Milwaukee will probably have better WS crowds but I suspect it will still be hard to get in for under $500, while the NLCS was going for the mid-$100s in 2018.

 

If the NBA Finals are any indication on how much tickets maybe then I think you are looking at the cheapest seats being something like $800. In Phoenix the cheapest ticket I could find for the NBA Finals was around $900 all the way up on top those usually go for about $20-40 a ticket.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I realized today that if the Brewers are in a Game 7 of the WS I'll be on a plane during the game despite having tickets.

 

As an out-of-town fan, I've always targeted the pennant clincher. 2018 worked out really nicely because games 6-7 fell on a Friday-Saturday and game 6 was guaranteed a few days ahead of time. So I was able to get ahold of face value tickets and a cheap flight without much difficulty. I still think game 7 would have gone the other way if Taylor hadn't made that absurd catch to rob Yelich of a game-tying double in the 5th.

 

This year NLCS games 6-7 are on a Saturday-Sunday which is perfect, but it's probably going to take a miracle upset of LA to get the games in Milwaukee (assuming the Brewers survive the NLDS). And I really don't want to go to LA as a visiting fan in the postseason, although I think the tickets will be easy to acquire.

 

I have less interest in the World Series, the tickets are too expensive and it invites too many casual baseball fans. My wife went to a Nats World Series game in 2019 and described it as a "typical baseball game", although that might be more because of the location and the poor performance in the game by the home team. Milwaukee will probably have better WS crowds but I suspect it will still be hard to get in for under $500, while the NLCS was going for the mid-$100s in 2018.

 

That catch is why I can't stand Chris Taylor. That and seeming to just be a Brewer gnat.

 

He took a horrible rout to that ball just to toy with us. I think it only had like a surprisingly low hit probability? Ugh. Stupid play.

 

I was pretty zen after game 4, honestly. Or maybe just too sleep-deprived to really believe.

 

This team feels different.

[MrTPlush]

 

I have less interest in the World Series, the tickets are too expensive and it invites too many casual baseball fans. My wife went to a Nats World Series game in 2019 and described it as a "typical baseball game", although that might be more because of the location and the poor performance in the game by the home team. Milwaukee will probably have better WS crowds but I suspect it will still be hard to get in for under $500, while the NLCS was going for the mid-$100s in 2018.

 

If the NBA Finals are any indication on how much tickets maybe then I think you are looking at the cheapest seats being something like $800. In Phoenix the cheapest ticket I could find for the NBA Finals was around $900 all the way up on top those usually go for about $20-40 a ticket.

 

I don’t think you’d get in for $500 even if we were down 0-3 in the series. Before Game 7 in 2018 a WS ticket would have cost you about $1,000. That was us not hosting the WS too.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I still expect the Dodgers to overtake the Giants for the West Division crown....but every day we get further into September seeing them stuck in that WC #1 spot makes me smile a bit more. The Dodgers and Giants are done playing each other the rest of regular season, so they can't rely on head to head matchups to gain ground directly - Giants have a ton (9) of games left with the Padres but also have the Rox, Cubs, and Dbacks to keep bolstering their record, while the Dodgers have Cards, Padres, Reds, and Brewers with only 9 games left against the Dbacks and Rox - so I'd actually give the schedule advantage to the Giants at this point.

 

How I look at it, the Dodgers' biggest advantage over everyone in the NL is how deep their top end pitching and offensive talent is on their roster - meaning it's really tough to beat them 4 times in a 7 game series. Forcing them to have to win a 1 game wildcard against any WC#2 team then have to beat the Giants in a short 5 game series before reaching the NLCS really would help the Brewers' overall chances at the pennant, IMO.

 

It will be very interesting what that last series between the Brewers and Dodgers looks like to end the regular season - depending on records, both teams could be trying like heck to win those games to either win their division (Dodgers), or from the Brewers' perspective keep their toughest competition in the wild card round. The Giants will be playing the Padres during that time, who will also likely be fighting for their playoff lives.

[dlk9s]

Look at all you high rollers with World Series tickets AND plane tickets.

[Samurai Bucky]

I realized today that if the Brewers are in a Game 7 of the WS I'll be on a plane during the game despite having tickets.

 

#CrewIn6

Yes... this!!!!

[formerlybis]

I realized today that if the Brewers are in a Game 7 of the WS I'll be on a plane during the game despite having tickets.

 

#CrewIn6

Yes... this!!!!

Fear the Beer! Fear the Beer!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

 

I have less interest in the World Series, the tickets are too expensive and it invites too many casual baseball fans. My wife went to a Nats World Series game in 2019 and described it as a "typical baseball game", although that might be more because of the location and the poor performance in the game by the home team. Milwaukee will probably have better WS crowds but I suspect it will still be hard to get in for under $500, while the NLCS was going for the mid-$100s in 2018.

 

If the NBA Finals are any indication on how much tickets maybe then I think you are looking at the cheapest seats being something like $800. In Phoenix the cheapest ticket I could find for the NBA Finals was around $900 all the way up on top those usually go for about $20-40 a ticket.

 

I don’t think you’d get in for $500 even if we were down 0-3 in the series. Before Game 7 in 2018 a WS ticket would have cost you about $1,000. That was us not hosting the WS too.

 

It's all about the timing and luck. Sometimes snapping them up ASAP saves money. Other times you get burned and get major deals right before the game. I'd guess that getting in the door for Game 1 of the WS would be $6-800. The flow of the series would probably dictate the rest. There are a lot more seats available than the Finals so it's a bit of a different animal.

 

The opponent might matter as well. I'd guess Tampa will be different than the Yankees.

[MrTPlush]

It's all about the timing and luck. Sometimes snapping them up ASAP saves money. Other times you get burned and get major deals right before the game. I'd guess that getting in the door for Game 1 of the WS would be $6-800. The flow of the series would probably dictate the rest. There are a lot more seats available than the Finals so it's a bit of a different animal.

 

The opponent might matter as well. I'd guess Tampa will be different than the Yankees.

 

Guessing the White Sox would be the AL team to cause price to go way up, simply due to opposing team interest. Not sure any other team is likely to really travel to Milwaukee, the rest are a ways away. Earlier series tickets usually cost less, but since any fan not fossilizing hasn't seen a Brewers World Series I am guessing that will fuel any early games they hold. $800 might not be a bad guess. The Indians would have been a decent price comp had they not played the Cubs, who caused their home games to be way inflated cost wise.

 

On the flip side I would bet NLDS/NLCS tickets if/when they happen will be much cheaper than past postseason runs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If you think the Red Sox or Yankees won't have a ton of fans showing up in MKE you're going to be disappointed. Particularly the Yankees who've been absent froom the WS for a surprisingly long time now. Well maybe not disappointed because it means we are playing . It's not just travel when you play a team like that (even though there would be significant travel). They live all over the place.

 

But they don't have to show up in great number to drive the price up. Just a few thousand have the power the raise the floor.

[endaround]

I wonder what would happen if the Jays make the World Series. Does MLB just buy a bunch of tickets for sponsors?

[BruisedCrew]

It's all about the timing and luck. Sometimes snapping them up ASAP saves money. Other times you get burned and get major deals right before the game. I'd guess that getting in the door for Game 1 of the WS would be $6-800. The flow of the series would probably dictate the rest. There are a lot more seats available than the Finals so it's a bit of a different animal.

 

The opponent might matter as well. I'd guess Tampa will be different than the Yankees.

 

Guessing the White Sox would be the AL team to cause price to go way up, simply due to opposing team interest. Not sure any other team is likely to really travel to Milwaukee, the rest are a ways away. Earlier series tickets usually cost less, but since any fan not fossilizing hasn't seen a Brewers World Series I am guessing that will fuel any early games they hold. $800 might not be a bad guess. The Indians would have been a decent price comp had they not played the Cubs, who caused their home games to be way inflated cost wise.

 

On the flip side I would bet NLDS/NLCS tickets if/when they happen will be much cheaper than past postseason runs.

 

I resent the comment about fossilizing fans.

[Underachiever]

If Brewers played Tampa in the WS, besides MLB losing their mind, I wonder what tickets in Tampa would be priced? They had to play in Texas last year, so we have no idea how many Rays fans would pop out of the woodwork. I have family in Tampa, and would use some airline miles to fly in for a game. Might be the cheapest way to see a WS game.