Playoff Picture for 2021

[tmwiese55]

With the several days layoff waiting for the WC games to happen I'd assume a team like MKE with likely nothing to play for will still play their guys the last few days. First, there isn't 40 man rosters anymore so you're a bit limited on what you can. But yea maybe a classic 'sunday lineup' is feasible or kind of trying to spread one day off for everyone over the 3 days. Quirk I could see though is starting pitchers, you'd probably want them to throw and keep their routine to a degree, but I could see not pushing them and maybe having an 80 pitch/5 inning type target on them. And with that few innings from starters it kind of assures all relievers will get an inning or two in order to not have a super long layoff before game 1.

[PinaMadness]

It worked for the Bucks.

[KCBrewerfan34]

How sweet would it be to knock the Dodgers into the WC game (playing them in the last series).

[Jopal78]

 

Yeah, the Reds lack pitching and their offense will only continue to age. With St. Louis kind of stuck in no-man's land where they're not really bad enough to rebuild and not truly that great overall, I agree.

 

It's fun to be able to look down at the Cardinals for a change; but they have more talent than you suggest. Goldschmidt is arguably the best 1B in the division. Arrenado is the best at 3B in the division and Tyler O'Neill (4.1 war) is the best LF in the division. Tommy Edman is a 3.1 war player this year, Dylan Carlson and Bader are equally good players. The Cardinals are where they are because of a ton of injuries to their pitching staff.

 

St. Louis has received a total of 18 starts out of their #1 and #2 pitchers this year. Additionally, Kim has been on the IL twice this year, and Carlos Martinez suffered a season ending injury in early July. They had to trade for Jon Lester and JA Happ at the deadline just to have some pitchers to eat innings.

 

Yet despite putting a rotation together in 2021 with band aids and prayers, they're 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card with with 3 games remaining against both Cincinnati and San Diego and 4 against Los Angeles. It is a small chance, but they do control their own destiny for the 2nd wild card right now.

[umphrey]

I would love to go back and look at the pre season projects for San Diego's pitching staff and compare them to what is currently about the 15th best starting pitching staff

[PeaveyFury]

The Cardinals are where they are because of a ton of injuries to their pitching staff.

 

.....hence, not that great overall. 4/5 of their rotation are literally very old veterans who were great 7-10 years ago. That's not going to win you enough games.

 

Plus, who knows how long Arenado is even on the team. I think the odds of him opting out are greater than many think.

 

As I said, the Cardinals are good enough to make noise each year, but they aren't really good enough to be considered an absolute contender each year for the division for the next 3 years like the premise of the initial post was.

[tmwiese55]

And though they do have money, with how much they have tied up in Arenado/Goldschmidt, assuming Arenado stays, it will be tough for them to pay for elite pitching anytime soon. They'll have to find some hidden gems, or have some young guys come up and work out. But as we know, that's what the Cards do, somehow they'll find a Mikolis type or their next two young guys up will be solid. Their model works great, always be solid, have great minors development, and then if/when you catch a few breaks you can make a legit run. That matt carpenter contract was dumb from the moment it was signed though, basically based off one hot month and it still has a year left. Who knows, if not for that we might not have Wong.

 

I guess it's fair to add that while obviously they've had horrible pitching health luck, one of those is balanced by Waino playing out of his mind this year, no way that was expected.

[Jopal78]

 

As I said, the Cardinals are good enough to make noise each year, but they aren't really good enough to be considered an absolute contender each year for the division for the next 3 years like the premise of the initial post was.

 

I don’t know what “make noise” means. They have Flaherty, Dakota Hudson should be back from injury. Wainwright is still terrific. Then there’s Mikolas, Kim, Martinez (still just 30 but possibly an impending free agent).

 

They’ve used 12 different starters this year due to injury and still have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. If you think with a healthy staff of their preferred starters they’ll merely “make noise” but not be good enough to contend in the Central; then I guess we can agree to disagree.

[sveumrules]

I would love to go back and look at the pre season projects for San Diego's pitching staff and compare them to what is currently about the 15th best starting pitching staff

 

Preseason projections at FanGraphs had the Padres with the best rotation in baseball entering the year...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-1-15/

 

Brewers came in at #9, though Ben Clemens thought the projections were underselling them somewhat..."Of the second tier of rotation projections, I think the Brewers have the best chance to over-deliver. Burnes and Peralta, in particular, could blow past our projections. I’m wildly optimistic here, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that they get to face the NL Central, perhaps the weakest-hitting division in the game."

[ThisIsMyCrew]

The Cardinals are where they are because of a ton of injuries to their pitching staff.

 

.....hence, not that great overall. 4/5 of their rotation are literally very old veterans who were great 7-10 years ago. That's not going to win you enough games.

 

Plus, who knows how long Arenado is even on the team. I think the odds of him opting out are greater than many think.

 

As I said, the Cardinals are good enough to make noise each year, but they aren't really good enough to be considered an absolute contender each year for the division for the next 3 years like the premise of the initial post was.

 

Thus, we allowed Nolan to bump his stats a bit last night to entice him to opt out and go to an AL team!

[Soupbone]

The problem with facing the Dodgers is the two left handed starters. we have really struggle with lefties lately.

[sixtolezcano16]

The problem with facing the Dodgers is the two left handed starters. we have really struggle with lefties lately.

Lately??? How about all year.

[Soupbone]

But not tonight.

[sveumrules]

In the eight postseasons using the current two team one game Wild Card format, the biggest difference in wins between WC1 & WC2 has been six, which happened three different times.

 

The average win difference between WC1 & WC2 has been 2.3 (1.6 in the 13 races not decided by six games) so typically the teams have been pretty evenly matched.

 

The difference between WC1 & WC2 in the NL is currently 13 wins.

[BruisedCrew]

The races for the NL East title and second NL wild card spots are heating up. Some stumbles by the Reds and Braves (both 4-6 in their last 10) while the Mets and Phils have both won 7 of their last 10 leaves the Braves, Phils and Mets within 3.5 games of each other, while those three teams, plus the Padres, Reds, and Cards are within 4 games of each other.

 

The Brewers will have a hand in this with their 7 games against the Cards and 3 against the Phillies and Mets.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers have officially gotten to 100% odds to win their division.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Reds have had a soft schedule and a great chance to put a little bit of distance between themselves and the Padres and have pretty much biffed it. Now they're sitting 1/2 game behind the Pads, who were in dire straights a few weeks ago. Schedule still favors the Reds, but they've shown that they pretty much are who they are. Just can't go on a sustained run with a butt bullpen.

 

Cubs have gone 11-6 (against a pretty soft schedule) since ending their brutal losing streak. They haven't been playing bad ball, and aren't laying down for anyone. They have a lot of games against contenders the rest of the way and with a lot of AAAA guys probably playing to prove they belong on a big league roster somewhere next year, they could actually play a pretty prominent spoiler role in the wild card.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Brewers have officially gotten to 100% odds to win their division.

 

 

I'm officially at 99.999999% until we clinch

 

(I know it's over, but I want it to be officially official)

[PinaMadness]

The Brewers have officially gotten to 100% odds to win their division.

I wonder if they also had the 1951 Dodgers at 100% too.

[owbc]

The races for the NL East title and second NL wild card spots are heating up. Some stumbles by the Reds and Braves (both 4-6 in their last 10) while the Mets and Phils have both won 7 of their last 10 leaves the Braves, Phils and Mets within 3.5 games of each other, while those three teams, plus the Padres, Reds, and Cards are within 4 games of each other.

 

The Brewers will have a hand in this with their 7 games against the Cards and 3 against the Phillies and Mets.

 

The AL is getting a bit interesting as well with the Astros stumbling a bit and a pack of teams sitting 3-4 back of the wild card. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Blue Jays sneak in ahead of the Red Sox or Yankees. The Mariners are an enigma but at this point one has to assume they are for real and are a threat as well. I have no idea how a team with one of the worst offenses in baseball can also be one of the most clutch teams in MLB history. It’s absurd.

[sveumrules]

The Brewers have officially gotten to 100% odds to win their division.

 

I wonder if they also had the 1951 Dodgers at 100% too.

 

1951 Dodgers were up 5.5 with 22 games remaining on September 6th.

 

Brewers are currently 11 up with 24 games remaining.

 

1951 Giants (105 wRC+ | 88 ERA-) also appear to have been a better team than the 2021 Reds (102 wRC+ | 103 ERA-).

 

Playoff Odds obviously didn't really exist in 1951, but if they did I don't think they would have had the Dodgers at 100% on September 6th.

[sveumrules]

The Mariners are an enigma but at this point one has to assume they are for real and are a threat as well. I have no idea how a team with one of the worst offenses in baseball can also be one of the most clutch teams in MLB history. It’s absurd.

 

FanGraphs had a pretty interesting article examining Seattle's clutch performance about a month ago...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mariners-are-trying-to-be-the-clutchiest-team-on-record-again/

 

This paragraph gives a nice tl,dr summation...

 

What’s the driving force behind that high-leverage 135 wRC+? Some of it is good ol’ batted ball luck – the Mariners have the league’s third-worst BABIP in low leverage at .257 against a seventh-best .332 BABIP in high leverage. They also have a HR/FB rate of 11.9% in low leverage and a rate of 21.9% in high leverage; the latter is another league-leading figure. Their strikeout rate also goes down in high leverage moments. The Mariners have been more keen to make contact in crucial moments, and when they do succeed, it has generally led to good results.

 

Something else to keep in mind is the FanGraphs Clutch metric is calculated with each player setting their own baseline, so having a 92 wRC+ as a team makes it easier for the Mariners to put up +7.66 Clutch than say a team like the Blue Jays who have a 111 wRC+ but are -5.11 Clutch.

[Joseph Zarr]

The Mariners are an enigma but at this point one has to assume they are for real and are a threat as well. I have no idea how a team with one of the worst offenses in baseball can also be one of the most clutch teams in MLB history. It’s absurd.

 

FanGraphs had a pretty interesting article examining Seattle's clutch performance about a month ago...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mariners-are-trying-to-be-the-clutchiest-team-on-record-again/

 

This paragraph gives a nice tl,dr summation...

 

What’s the driving force behind that high-leverage 135 wRC+? Some of it is good ol’ batted ball luck – the Mariners have the league’s third-worst BABIP in low leverage at .257 against a seventh-best .332 BABIP in high leverage. They also have a HR/FB rate of 11.9% in low leverage and a rate of 21.9% in high leverage; the latter is another league-leading figure. Their strikeout rate also goes down in high leverage moments. The Mariners have been more keen to make contact in crucial moments, and when they do succeed, it has generally led to good results.

 

Something else to keep in mind is the FanGraphs Clutch metric is calculated with each player setting their own baseline, so having a 92 wRC+ as a team makes it easier for the Mariners to put up +7.66 Clutch than say a team like the Blue Jays who have a 111 wRC+ but are -5.11 Clutch.

 

This bears out. I've been to a few Mariners games this season in Seattle and they definitely seem to rise to the occasion in Clutch moments. I'd look up and down the stat sheet and see those Brewers-esque mid May averages and, lo and behold, a game winning bases clearing hit or HR by Seager who is hitting for a crappy average this season. They're an interesting team moving forward here the next few seasons. Really like the Toro acquisition and they've rebounded from the Closer trade that caught the entire team off-guard (Dipoto hasn't been seen as a player friendly GM whatsoever).

 

Side Bar: If you ever have a chance to go to a Mariners game, their ballpark is really quite wonderful. An extremely comfortable and enjoyable baseball game experience.

 

Mod edit - please don't add special characters to avoid the cuss filter. Thanks!

[owbc]

This bears out. I've been to a few Mariners games this season in Seattle and they definitely seem to rise to the occasion in Clutch moments. I'd look up and down the stat sheet and see those Brewers-esque mid May averages and, lo and behold, a game winning bases clearing hit or HR by Seager who is hitting for a sh!t average this season. They're an interesting team moving forward here the next few seasons. Really like the Toro acquisition and they've rebounded from the Closer trade that caught the entire team off-guard (Dipoto hasn't been seen as a player friendly GM whatsoever).

 

Side Bar: If you ever have a chance to go to a Mariners game, their ballpark is really quite wonderful. An extremely comfortable and enjoyable baseball game experience.

 

I thought I was the only Seattle person on here! Agreed, one of the nicer ballparks in baseball + some of the lowest ticket prices for nice seats. There will be a San Diego-like resurgence in fan interest if they can ever make the playoffs.

 

But yes, you go to a game and look at the lineup and wonder how this team can possibly be where they are in the standings. Ty France is probably the guy who has quietly done the most other than Seagar/Haniger.

[BruisedCrew]

The Brewers have officially gotten to 100% odds to win their division.

 

I wonder if they also had the 1951 Dodgers at 100% too.

 

1951 Dodgers were up 5.5 with 22 games remaining on September 6th.

 

Brewers are currently 11 up with 24 games remaining.

 

1951 Giants (105 wRC+ | 88 ERA-) also appear to have been a better team than the 2021 Reds (102 wRC+ | 103 ERA-).

 

Playoff Odds obviously didn't really exist in 1951, but if they did I don't think they would have had the Dodgers at 100% on September 6th.

 

The now defunct Cool Standings site (I think FanGraphs says their projections are based on the Cool Standings model) had this chart showing the greatest collapses in MLB history up to 2011.

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/collapses.asp?i=1&sn=2007

 

These are based on the highest projected playoff percentages at any point in the season for teams that eventually missed the playoffs entirely.

 

The all time “leader” on this chart is the 1995 Angels, but the 51 Dodgers are second. Their peak percentage was 99.7% on August 13 when they held a 12.5 game lead over the Giants.

 

The chart shows several teams that failed to make the postseason after reaching or exceeding a probability of 95%. I think it’s safe to say that blowing an 11 game lead with 24 to play would be truly unprecedented. It’s a far cry from losing a 7 game lead in mid August.