Playoff Picture for 2021

[Zad Fnark]

Nope. Not in the post-season.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I honestly don't think the seed means anything in baseball aside from not having to win the play-in game.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers aren't even all that good at home and have been exceptional on the road.

 

I wouldn’t want to count on that working that way in the playoffs.

 

Yah, I know our road record is good, but in baseball there is a big difference between a regular season home game and one in the postseason. Baseball stadiums get packed and they get packed with a lot of energy come October. I don't think it has anywhere near the impact it does in other sports, but road games are no fun in October.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Baseball plays a 2-3-2 so even having the better seed is of questionable importance. I'd rather be at home in the NLDS but I'd guess the LCS is a random 50/50 split and I think I remember some stat that the road team has fared better in Game 7.

 

I don't think it matters at all, to be honest. Yeah there is energy, and it dissipates immediately when it's 2-0 in the 2nd inning. I've watched the road team dance on our field the last two LCS.

[roadcrew3]

Baseball plays a 2-3-2 so even having the better seed is of questionable importance. I'd rather be at home in the NLDS but I'd guess the LCS is a random 50/50 split and I think I remember some stat that the road team has fared better in Game 7.

 

I don't think it matters at all, to be honest. Yeah there is energy, and it dissipates immediately when it's 2-0 in the 2nd inning. I've watched the road team dance on our field the last two LCS.

 

I don't think crowds matter at all I think its more about the team being more comfortable with their gameday routines in their home parks and hitters ability to pick up the baseball differently in the different stadiums i.e. the Willy Adames example.

 

Thinking back to 2018, after Yelich's HR Miller Park felt like a crowd watching their team punch a ticket to a World Series and only a few innings later after Puigs shenanigan's you felt like you were at a funeral as everybody knew the game was over but we still had to hang around and watch for a few more innings, no crowd energy was bringing that team back to life.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think it helps that no one really cares if we end up the #1 seed. Seems most want to avoid the Dodgers and aren't as concerned about whoever comes out of the NL East. Some certainly want the #1 seed for home field advantage, but that is a much smaller group of people. For many losing the division and grabbing the #1 seed are both negative outcomes.

 

I don't get the sentiment that it's better to have the number two seed. You don't win a World Series without beating the team playing the best at that time regardless of seed.

We can also look at how the Brewers did against the probable opponents. The Brewers have as good of or better record against every NL West playoff hopeful than they do against the East. Hell the Brewers haven't beat the Phillies yet this season.

While I'd rather the Brewers set their pitching up for the playoffs over using them to the max to get the top seed I still think being the top seed is preferable all things being equal.

 

Well sure, all things being equal. But all things aren't equal. The Dodgers are clearly the most dangerous potential opponent and a team that many believe is the best in all of baseball. I would prefer a scenario where they have two chances to be eliminated before a matchup with the Brewers.

 

Yes, obviously the Brewers still have to win in the NLDS and will have to beat good teams regardless, but it would be great if one of those teams wasn't the Dodgers.

 

1- The Brewers are 3-1 vs the Dodgers this season. They are 0-4 against the Phillies and 3-3 against Atlanta. Given the need is to win 3 or 4 games in the playoffs I'd rather face the team we actually won 3 or 4 games against during the season than one we didn't.

2- If a team beats the Dodgers or Giants before they get to us that probably means they're playing better at that time than the team they just beat.

3- One of the Dodgers or Giants will be in a one game playoff. It's much easier for a lesser team to win one game than 3 or 4. The only chance of getting the worst team in the second round is to have the best record. I will take the odds of us beating the Reds/Padres over the Braves or Phillies.

4- It's easier for the lesser team to win a five game series than it is a seven game series. Thus it makes sense to face the teams you think might be better than you in the second round.

5- Hoping we don't have to face either of the two best teams in the playoffs seems like a pipe dream to me. It doesn't make sense to me to want second place instead of first on the off chance the two best teams are eliminated before we face them.

6- I'd rather play a wild card team that had to use some of it's pitching to get to us than a team that got all it's pitchers lined up the way it wants.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

To be clear I'd rather be playing at home. But I don't think it's anything to bother thinking about twice if we aren't. Like yeah it's nice, but if not, it's not the kind of death blow I think it can 100% be in the NBA.

[tmwiese55]

Generally we're overthinking things. It's really as simple as first, as OSS said, avoiding the play in game. Which MKE has done. Second, the Dodgers are the clearly most talented and best team in MLB and have two legit powerhouse aces, plus Kershaw and Urias. Looking at small samples of regular season games is moot. Anything to make their situation more difficult and avoiding them until NLCS is really all that matters. It's tough to for sure predict how that plays out with a month to go, but that's the end goal and exactly what scenario is best or more likely will change as the month goes on. What will really make it interesting is MKE/LAD play each the last weekend.

[MrTPlush]

1- The Brewers are 3-1 vs the Dodgers this season. They are 0-4 against the Phillies and 3-3 against Atlanta. Given the need is to win 3 or 4 games in the playoffs I'd rather face the team we actually won 3 or 4 games against during the season than one we didn't.

 

Their starting pitchers were Trevor Bauer (won't be seeing him), Edwin Ucenta (not even on MLB roster any more, it was a bullpen game though), Dustin May (who we won't see as he got injured after 5 outs and then we barely won against their depleted bullpen), and Julio Urias. Urias we would see and that was the game we lost.

 

On the flip side we threw Lauer, Peralta, Woodruff, Bettinger.

 

Seems really silly when these won't be anywhere near the match ups we will see and faced the Dodgers waaaay back in April/May.

[Thurston Fluff]

1- The Brewers are 3-1 vs the Dodgers this season. They are 0-4 against the Phillies and 3-3 against Atlanta. Given the need is to win 3 or 4 games in the playoffs I'd rather face the team we actually won 3 or 4 games against during the season than one we didn't.

 

Their starting pitchers were Trevor Bauer (won't be seeing him), Edwin Ucenta (not even on MLB roster any more, it was a bullpen game though), Dustin May (who we won't see as he got injured after 5 outs and then we barely won against their depleted bullpen), and Julio Urias. Urias we would see and that was the game we lost.

 

On the flip side we threw Lauer, Peralta, Woodruff, Bettinger.

 

Seems really silly when these won't be anywhere near the match ups we will see and faced the Dodgers waaaay back in April/May.

 

How is not having to face Bauer worse for the Brewers? They'll also have to use someone in the play in game. They either use their best or risk losing without playing their best. That said yes, that is the least important reason to have the top seed. I think the other five reasons I outlined still stand.

[MrTPlush]

1- The Brewers are 3-1 vs the Dodgers this season. They are 0-4 against the Phillies and 3-3 against Atlanta. Given the need is to win 3 or 4 games in the playoffs I'd rather face the team we actually won 3 or 4 games against during the season than one we didn't.

 

Their starting pitchers were Trevor Bauer (won't be seeing him), Edwin Ucenta (not even on MLB roster any more, it was a bullpen game though), Dustin May (who we won't see as he got injured after 5 outs and then we barely won against their depleted bullpen), and Julio Urias. Urias we would see and that was the game we lost.

 

On the flip side we threw Lauer, Peralta, Woodruff, Bettinger.

 

Seems really silly when these won't be anywhere near the match ups we will see and faced the Dodgers waaaay back in April/May.

How is not having to face Bauer worse for the Brewers? They'll also have to use someone in the play in game. They either use their best or risk losing without playing their best. That said yes, that is the least important reason to have the top seed. I think the other five reasons I outlined still stand.

 

I didn't say it was. I am just pointing out that in four games against them 1/4 starters we will actually see in the postseason and we lost to that one pitcher. Of course Bettinger won't go toe-to-toe with Urias, but that is my point. Those match ups won't even be close to what we will see in October.

[PeaveyFury]

Four losses in a row for the Reds, and six of their last eight. They appear to be imploding.

 

It would be the most Cardinals thing ever to have the Reds and Padres both collapse, allowing the Cards to slide into the last WC spot...

[Thurston Fluff]

How is not having to face Bauer worse for the Brewers?[/b] They'll also have to use someone in the play in game. They either use their best or risk losing without playing their best. That said yes, that is the least important reason to have the top seed. I think the other five reasons I outlined still stand.

 

I didn't say it was. I am just pointing out that in four games against them 1/4 starters we will actually see in the postseason and we lost to that one pitcher. Of course Bettinger won't go toe-to-toe with Urias, but that is my point. Those match ups won't even be close to what we will see in October.

 

Fair enough. That was admittedly the weakest of my six points. I mainly put it in there because I was looking at all the reasons and it seemed to me beating a team that we have a winning record against shouldn't scare us as much as beating one we don't. It certainly isn't the reason I feel having the best record is better than the second best. It's just a minor part of a bigger picture. One that I probably should have left out upon further inspection.

[BruisedCrew]

Four losses in a row for the Reds, and six of their last eight. They appear to be imploding.

 

It would be the most Cardinals thing ever to have the Reds and Padres both collapse, allowing the Cards to slide into the last WC spot...

 

The Brewers are in a better position than anyone else to keep that from happening.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Four losses in a row for the Reds, and six of their last eight. They appear to be imploding.

 

It would be the most Cardinals thing ever to have the Reds and Padres both collapse, allowing the Cards to slide into the last WC spot...

 

You mean the Reds are maybe not the juggernaut they were purported to be only a few weeks ago by some?

 

Well, knock me over with the feather!

[MrTPlush]

Brewers are the closest team to clinching a divisional title at #19...the White Sox magic number is currently #22.

 

I was surprised to see the Rays are absolutely on fire and have an 8 game lead after winning 9 straight. Last week they had a 4.5 game lead.

[Thurston Fluff]

How is not having to face Bauer worse for the Brewers?[/b] They'll also have to use someone in the play in game. They either use their best or risk losing without playing their best. That said yes, that is the least important reason to have the top seed. I think the other five reasons I outlined still stand.

 

I didn't say it was. I am just pointing out that in four games against them 1/4 starters we will actually see in the postseason and we lost to that one pitcher. Of course Bettinger won't go toe-to-toe with Urias, but that is my point. Those match ups won't even be close to what we will see in October.

 

Fair enough. That was admittedly the weakest of my six points. I mainly put it in there because I was looking at all the reasons and it seemed to me beating a team that we have a winning record against shouldn't scare us as much as beating one we don't. It certainly isn't the reason I feel having the best record is better than the second best. It's just a minor part of a bigger picture. One that I probably should have left out upon further inspection.

[adambr2]

Four losses in a row for the Reds, and six of their last eight. They appear to be imploding.

 

It would be the most Cardinals thing ever to have the Reds and Padres both collapse, allowing the Cards to slide into the last WC spot...

 

You mean the Reds are maybe not the juggernaut they were purported to be only a few weeks ago by some?

 

Well, knock me over with the feather!

 

I don't want to count our chickens before they hatch but we should be in relatively good position to dominate this division for the next 3 or so years. We've got our 3 headed monster plus Hader and Adames under control for the next 3 years and Peralta for 5 more and Devin for I believe 4. There aren't any substantial losses coming anytime soon and if Ashby follows the same blueprint as the rest of the rotation then look out.

 

I would not expect the Cubs to be down a super long time however. They always have gobs of money to spend which can accelerate their rebuild timeline. I wouldn't be surprised if they are competitive again in '23.

[PeaveyFury]

 

I don't want to count our chickens before they hatch but we should be in relatively good position to dominate this division for the next 3 or so years.

 

Yeah, the Reds lack pitching and their offense will only continue to age. With St. Louis kind of stuck in no-man's land where they're not really bad enough to rebuild and not truly that great overall, I agree.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the problem for the Cards getting into the postseason is the fact they play the best team in baseball like ten more times in september

[adambr2]

 

I don't want to count our chickens before they hatch but we should be in relatively good position to dominate this division for the next 3 or so years.

 

Yeah, the Reds lack pitching and their offense will only continue to age. With St. Louis is stuck in no-man's land where they're not really bad enough to rebuild and not truly that great overall, I agree.

 

I'm dreaming of a Brewers World Series following a Bucks NBA Championship. It's striking to me how different it is to win a Championship in baseball than basketball. In basketball you have to have that Alpha stud. Have to. And a high end 2.

 

In baseball it seems quite a bit different. I can't think of one single Brewer that I can point to and say, "This, this is the guy that makes it happen." It's a lot of guys. It used to be Yelich, but it's really not anymore.

 

The Angels have the two best baseball players on the planet (yeah pretty lost season this year for one of them), and they are perennially mediocre.

[Underachiever]

Yankees-Red Sox wild card game? Yes, please.

[HarveysWBs]

Yankees-Red Sox wild card game? Yes, please.

I would get behind this only because the nauseating wall-to-wall coverage and hype would be over very quickly, and we can all get on appreciating the other better and less-endowed baseball teams go about their postseason business.

[nate82]

Yankees-Red Sox wild card game? Yes, please.

 

Yankees vs Red Sox

Dodgers vs Padres/Cardinals/Reds

 

That is my preferred wild card games as I just want to see the Yankees and Dodgers lose the wild card game and watch the talking heads on ESPN cry over why this is so unfair to large market teams. Also would be nice to have ESPN talk about the Brewers, Braves and Rays a little bit more instead of constantly gushing over the Dodgers and Yankees. The greatest scenario would be for the A's to knock off the Astros and have them miss the playoffs.

 

Perfect playoff scenario for me would be:

 

AL East: Rays (1)

AL Central: White Sox (2)

AL West: A's (3)

AL Wild Card: Yankees (4) Astros (5)

 

NL East: Braves (3)

NL Central: Brewers (2)

NL West: Giants (1)

NL Wild Card: Dodgers (4) Padres (5)

 

Then have the playoffs end up like this:

Astros beat the Yankees

Padres beat the Dodgers

 

Rays beat the Astros

A's beat the White Sox

Padres beat the Giants

Brewers beat the Braves

 

Rays beat the A's

Brewers beat the Padres

 

Epic 7 game World Series between the Rays and Brewers with the Brewers winning on a go ahead home run by Adames off of Feyereisen.

[KeithStone53151]

Relatively unrelated to the Brewers, there's an enormous series this weekend in SF as the Dodgers are visiting. Obviously way too early still for the team winning 2 of 3 or better to be a clear frontrunner, still a big series/opportunity. Also, just noticed looking at the Giants schedule, 10 of the Giants last 19 games are against the Padres.

 

Also, the Brewers close the season against the Dodgers. Those games could be meaningful for multiple reasons. The Dodgers could still be fighting for the division, and we could be in a fight with Dodgers for best record and home field advantage. I wonder if we were 1 game back from the Dodgers heading into the series, if the Brewers would be inclined to rest players for that series in preparation for the playoffs or if they'd start players as normal and play to win. Will be interesting to see if that scenario plays out.