Playoff Picture for 2021

[owbc]

Yankees beat Blue Jays and Red Sox lose to Orioles. The Mariners are making a serious run at one of the AL wild card spots.

 

Mariners win their 11th straight against Oakland, now 0.5 back. Unreal. Going to be a fun weekend.

 

Yeah, and that place was intense the last two nights. I think the AL is where the action will be going forward. Giants and Braves looking like they'll take care of business in the NL.

 

It’s hard to put a finger on exactly what Scott Servais is doing to motivate them, obviously a lights out bullpen makes anyone look good, but this is the second time he’s going to win 89+ games with a 70-75 win roster.

[IIAY]

Looking back on it (at least in terms of my anxiety level this week), Vogelbach's Ultimate Slam was probably the biggest hit of the year.

[Jopal78]

 

It’s hard to put a finger on exactly what Scott Servais is doing to motivate them, obviously a lights out bullpen makes anyone look good, but this is the second time he’s going to win 89+ games with a 70-75 win roster.

 

The Mariners are 33-18 in one run games. A whole lot of good fortune in the Pacific Northwest than managerial rah-rah.

[NYChez]

Bo Bichette!

[HarveysWBs]

Bo Bichette!

Putting my fantasy team on his back during championship week.

 

Sorry, I know no one cares, but I had to geek out for a minute. Carry on.

[BruisedCrew]

The Fat Lady is clearing her throat and getting ready to sing at the funeral of the Phillies playoff hopes.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Phillies could still tie and force a game 163...

[BruisedCrew]

Phillies could still tie and force a game 163...

 

Yes, but a magic number of 1 with one game remaining in this series and the Braves having 4 more chances to clinch with home games against the Mets (3) and Rockies, the Phillies hopes are all but gone. They really needed two wins in this series and they aren’t getting them.

[owbc]

The AL wild card race tightened tonight:

 

New York 90-68 +1

Boston 89-69

Seattle 89-70 0.5 GB

Toronto 88-70 1 GB

[DuWayne Steurer]

Phillies could still tie and force a game 163...

 

Yes, but a magic number of 1 with one game remaining in this series and the Braves having 4 more chances to clinch with home games against the Mets (3) and Rockies, the Phillies hopes are all but gone. They really needed two wins in this series and they aren’t getting them.

 

never give up while hope remains.

[BruisedCrew]

Phillies could still tie and force a game 163...

 

Yes, but a magic number of 1 with one game remaining in this series and the Braves having 4 more chances to clinch with home games against the Mets (3) and Rockies, the Phillies hopes are all but gone. They really needed two wins in this series and they aren’t getting them.

 

never give up while hope remains.

 

I don’t care about this race enough to have hope or concern about it. But, objectively, even if the Phillies win today, and sweep the Marlins over the weekend, there is no reason to think that the Braves are suddenly going to lose 3 at home to the Mets and then lose the makeup game to the Rockies to give the Phillies a chance in a game 163.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don’t care about this race enough to have hope or concern about it. But, objectively, even if the Phillies win today, and sweep the Marlins over the weekend, there is no reason to think that the Braves are suddenly going to lose 3 at home to the Mets and then lose the makeup game to the Rockies to give the Phillies a chance in a game 163.

 

Weren't you the same one who was giving the Cardinals a fighter's chance to win the division at this time last week? We're probably talking about very similar odds here.

[BruisedCrew]

I don’t care about this race enough to have hope or concern about it. But, objectively, even if the Phillies win today, and sweep the Marlins over the weekend, there is no reason to think that the Braves are suddenly going to lose 3 at home to the Mets and then lose the makeup game to the Rockies to give the Phillies a chance in a game 163.

 

Weren't you the same one who was giving the Cardinals a fighter's chance to win the division at this time last week? We're probably talking about very similar odds here.

 

Yes, and I think the Cardinals fighting chance, as slim as it was, was better than the Phillies fighting chance is now because of the schedules involved and the fact that the Cardinals were on a blistering hot streak that didn’t end until their playoff position was cemented.

 

Outside of what the Cardinals could control themselves by beating the Brewers head to head and winning their own games against the hapless Cubs, they needed the Brewers to lose 3 of 6 to the Mets and Dodgers. Outside of what the Phillies can control by winning their own games, they need the Braves to lose 4 of 4 to the Mets and Rockies. That is obviously a lot less likely.

 

That’s beside the fact that everyone’s attitude about a situation is affected by their emotional investment in it. If I were a Braves fan I would be feeling really good about their situation, but withholding the celebration until they mathematically clinched, just like I did with the Brewers.

 

The real incongruity is anyone who thought the NL Central race was over in mid August thinking that the Phillies have hope now.

[Outlander]

I don’t care about this race enough to have hope or concern about it. But, objectively, even if the Phillies win today, and sweep the Marlins over the weekend, there is no reason to think that the Braves are suddenly going to lose 3 at home to the Mets and then lose the makeup game to the Rockies to give the Phillies a chance in a game 163.

 

Weren't you the same one who was giving the Cardinals a fighter's chance to win the division at this time last week? We're probably talking about very similar odds here.

.2% so a little better for the Phillies but not much. He sees the light now.

[Eye Black]

Some light reading for those interested, from Ben Clemens of FanGraphs:

 

How Well Do Our Playoff Odds Work?

[pacopete4]

Feelings aren't facts. Data rules the day.

[BuckyBrewer61]

The AL wild card race tightened tonight:

 

New York 90-68 +1

Boston 89-69

Seattle 89-70 0.5 GB

Toronto 88-70 1 GB

 

 

I wonder how a 4-way tiebreaker for 2 Wild Card spots would work?

 

I would love to find out.

[MrTPlush]

The AL wild card race tightened tonight:

 

New York 90-68 +1

Boston 89-69

Seattle 89-70 0.5 GB

Toronto 88-70 1 GB

 

 

I wonder how a 4-way tiebreaker for 2 Wild Card spots would work?

 

I would love to find out.

 

Not as exciting as you would think. It is just two games that are played to decide the spots. The designations are picked by the teams after H2H records and stuff like that decide picking order. Best team obviously picks A, the second one would likely pick C for the home game BUT they could pick B if they like their chances against that A team. The third team to pick is the most interesting as it likely is a road team either way. So it gets to pick whatever team it feels it has the best chance of winning against on the road. I do not think the A/B winner automatically gets to host the actual Wild Card game...it just gets decided on H2H etc. between the two winners.

 

Four-Club Tie for Two Wild Card Spots:

After Clubs have been assigned their A, B, C and D designations, Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D. The winners of each of those games would be declared the Wild Card Clubs.

 

It would actually be a lot more exciting if there were only three for the two spots or three for one of the spots. If it is for two spots then you have a game for one spot and then the loser gets another crack at the second spot facing the team that didn't play in the first game. If it is three going for one spot a team gets a bye for the first game and then plays the winner for that final WC spot.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules

[Joseph Zarr]

Incredible run from the Mariners. Just incredible. Post Trade deadline they scuffled after the emotional blowback from seeing their Closer leave (a teammate beloved by the clubhouse). Since that time, they've continued to gel and the move, overall, really looks like a good One for DiPoto and the org. Personally, give me Toronto and the Mariners 24/7. Boston and NY can lament their disappointments together.

[owbc]

Incredible run from the Mariners. Just incredible. Post Trade deadline they scuffled after the emotional blowback from seeing their Closer leave (a teammate beloved by the clubhouse). Since that time, they've continued to gel and the move, overall, really looks like a good One for DiPoto and the org. Personally, give me Toronto and the Mariners 24/7. Boston and NY can lament their disappointments together.

 

The Seattle fans have been a bit slow to catch on but the team is now reporting massive ticket sales for the weekend series. Everyone assumed they would fall short. Lots of similarities with the 2007 Colorado Rockies team that finished 14-1. Seattle is 10-1 in their last 11. I don't think there's anything more fun in baseball than when an underdog team goes on one of these runs (unless it's the Cardinals of course).

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

538 actually has the Braves better than the Brewers overall. Now, when you adjust for Peralta, Woodruff, and Burnes pitching the highest % of innings, that likely changes. Still, I think the NLDS matchup is fairly even. The Braves have a sneaky good top 3 of their own, and their offense is good.

 

I would've preferred the Phillies if I had my pick. Still think we're slight favorites, but I'd be surprised if this was the 2018 NLDS. Should go 4 or 5.

 

One thing for sure: I bet there will be a lot of afternoon starts, especially since the other NLDS could be all West Coast and will definitely feature the marquee markets.

[BruisedCrew]

I suppose this is all subject to change, but the Spectrum channel guide lists NLDS games on both Friday and Saturday at 3:30 and 7:30 on TBS. if those are the actual times I would also expect the Brewers games to be at 3:30.

 

The guide also has Friday’s ALDS games slotted at 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM on FS1.

[nate82]

I suppose this is all subject to change, but the Spectrum channel guide lists NLDS games on both Friday and Saturday at 3:30 and 7:30 on TBS. if those are the actual times I would also expect the Brewers games to be at 3:30.

 

The guide also has Friday’s ALDS games slotted at 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM on FS1.

 

The early game is usually reserved for the east coast teams and the later game reserved for the west coast teams normally. MLB can move them around if they believe another matchup would get more viewers. For example the ALDS will probably be the later game with the Rays and Yankees/Red Sox. If the Mariners sneak in and beat the Yankees or Red Sox then the Rays probably slot in at the earlier time. The ALDS will also have the White Sox and Astros so moving that one to an earlier game wouldn't be as big of an issue as it will be in the NL.

 

The NLDS is more than likely going to be the west coast teams for the later start. The Brewers will be on the 3:30 start for the NLDS.

[nate82]

The Braves it is.

 

Braves-Brewers will be the early NLDS game book it!

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Braves have the better offense. They hit a lot of home runs (2nd in the NL).

 

Woodruff, Burned, and Peralta will be the three best pitchers in the series. Hader is a lot better than Will Smith at the back end of the pen.

 

Season series was 3-3. Each team won an extra innings game.

 

Will be interested to see where the models have it. I'll take Brewers in 4, but this is one of those series where no outcome would surprise me. If Freeman does what he does at AmFam, and the offense goes into all-time hero mode, it'll be a quick exit.

 

Two evenly matched teams. Should be fun.