Playoff Picture for 2021

[BruisedCrew]

The Phillies had a damaging loss to the Pirates today. That puts them 2.5 games behind the Braves with a 3 game series in Atlanta coming up this week. Unless they win at least two of those games they will be all but done with the Braves hosting the Mets next weekend.

 

It would be interesting to see those teams separated by half a game on Sunday so the Braves would have to play the Rockies on Monday then possibly have a game 163 on Tuesday. Make whoever wins that game have to use up a good starter just to get to the NLDS.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The Phillies had a damaging loss to the Pirates today. That puts them 2.5 games behind the Braves with a 3 game series in Atlanta coming up this week. Unless they win at least two of those games they will be all but done with the Braves hosting the Mets next weekend.

 

It would be interesting to see those teams separated by half a game on Sunday so the Braves would have to play the Rockies on Monday then possibly have a game 163 on Tuesday. Make whoever wins that game have to use up a good starter just to get to the NLDS.

 

For sure. At the very least, we want the Phillies to keep that close as long as possible.

[nate82]

There could be two game 163's. One for the NL East and one for the NL West. I am hoping for a game 163 for the NL West. Would weaken one of the NL West teams a little at least.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

There could be two game 163's. One for the NL East and one for the NL West. I am hoping for a game 163 for the NL West. Would weaken one of the NL West teams a little at least.

 

Also possible to have a 3-way or 2-way tie for the AL Wild card. Looks like the Yankees are going to be one-up on the Red Sox, who will be one-up on TOR and two-up on SEA.

[AdvantageSchneider]

The Padres are officially eliminated from the postseason. What an unbelievably disappointing season for those guys.

 

 

On August 10th they were 67 - 49. Season high 18 games over .500. SInce then they have pooped their pants to the tune of an 11 - 27 record, and now have to win 3 games still in the last week just to finish .500 for the season. 2 against ATL, 3 against LA, and 3 against SF, and there's a real chance they don't make it to .500. What a fall.

 

I was wondering how this compared to our collapse in 2014. At the end of June we were 51-33, 18 games above .500. We were actually 19 games above .500 on June 28. The collapse began in July when we lost 10 out of 11 (or 11 out of 12 if you want to go back to Jue 29th). We semi righted the ship in August going 13-14 but Sept the collapse was complete with a 9-17 record. Finished 82-80 in 3rd place.

 

I never thought we were as good as our record that year. We won a lot of games because the other team screwed up. I would not have predicted SD's collapse. I thought they were a better than .500 club.

[Eye Black]

Jeff Passan sums up the AL wild card race with this Tweet…

 

Yankees 89-67

Red Sox 88-68

Blue Jays 87-69

Mariners 86-70

A's 85-71

 

NY vs. Jays for three, then Yanks-Rays. Sox get Orioles and Nats. Jays end with O's. Mariners-A's in eliminator series. Then: M's-Angels, A's-Astros.

 

Top two play in wild card game.

 

This week is gonna rule.

[DuWayne Steurer]

A's have to pass 3 teams. I don't see that as anything approaching viable.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Below is a snapshot of the NL Division races with a week to go.

 

Giants lead Dodgers by 2.0 games.

 

Giants remaining schedule:

1 game at Rockies

3 games against Dbacks (at home)

3 games against Padres (at home)

 

Dodgers remaining schedule:

1 game at Dbacks

3 games against Padres (at home)

3 games against Brewers (at home)

 

 

Do the other NL west teams hate the Dodgers? Will they lay down so the Giants can win? I think the D-back hate the Dodgers. Don't know about the Padres.

[young guns]

A's have to pass 3 teams. I don't see that as anything approaching viable.

Looking at the schedules I would agree. They can sweep the Ms to get past them, but the NY- Jays series will either put the yanks out of reach and pass/tie the Jays or bring g the yanks closer, but still behind the Jays. And then you might still need the Sox to choke against 2 very bad teams.

[SRB]

Time to root for the Giants and... the Cardinals??

 

I want a white-hot Cardinals team to knock the Dodgers out in the Wild Card.

[adambr2]

There could be two game 163's. One for the NL East and one for the NL West. I am hoping for a game 163 for the NL West. Would weaken one of the NL West teams a little at least.

 

I don't have any interest in seeing the Giants and Dodgers come down to the wire. If there's a Game 163, the Dodgers are going to win. Just let the Giants run away with it and guarantee that one of the Dodgers or Cardinals is going home immediately. Preferably the Dodgers, but the Cardinals would be a nice consolation prize.

[BruisedCrew]

There could be two game 163's. One for the NL East and one for the NL West. I am hoping for a game 163 for the NL West. Would weaken one of the NL West teams a little at least.

 

I don't have any interest in seeing the Giants and Dodgers come down to the wire. If there's a Game 163, the Dodgers are going to win. Just let the Giants run away with it and guarantee that one of the Dodgers or Cardinals is going home immediately. Preferably the Dodgers, but the Cardinals would be a nice consolation prize.

 

This is where I am.

 

With a 2 game lead and 6 home games remaining the Giants control their own destiny and can banish the Dodgers to the wild card game. I hope they win out.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Buehler against the Padres on Tuesday with Scherzer on Wednesday....pretty much sets up for either of them to be the choice to start the wild card or a game 163 for the division against the Giants unless their final game has division implications, at which point we'll likely see Buehler Sunday.

 

Kind of hoping the Giants clinch the division on Friday or Saturday later this week so the Dodgers can get all their ducks in a row for the WC game against the Cards....that way I can actively root for both teams to lose during the WC game (LAD and STL) and walk away knowing whoever won still has a hill to climb before reaching the NLCS.

 

What I'm interested in seeing this week is if the Cards are intelligent and give a few of their key bullpen arms a series off and rest some of their regulars down the stretch, or if they keep grinding as hard as possible to extend their current winning streak. 16 straight down the stretch has been impressive to watch even as a fan who actively roots against them against anyone - but at this point part of me wants the Brewers to just mail in their games in STL this week if it means STL keeps the pedal down when it honestly means absolutely nothing for them.

[sveumrules]

Heading into the last week here's how the various computers view the various as of yet undecided races...

 

AL Wild Card

 

NYY: 89.4% PECOTA | 81.3% FanGraphs | 75% 538

BOS: 67.6% PECOTA | 87.2% FanGraphs | 78% 538

TOR: 36.9% PECOTA | 28.5% FanGraphs | 41% 538

SEA: 5.1% PECOTA | 2.6% FanGraphs | 6% 538

OAK: 1.0% PECOTA | 0.6% FanGraphs | <1% 538

 

NL East Division

 

ATL: 84.7% PECOTA | 87.1% FanGraphs | 93% 538

PHI: 15.3% PECOTA | 12.9% FanGraphs | 7% 538

 

NL West Divsion

 

SF: 74.9% PECOTA | 84% FanGraphs | 87% 538

LA: 25.1% PECOTA | 16% FanGraphs | 13% 538

[BruisedCrew]

Buehler against the Padres on Tuesday with Scherzer on Wednesday....pretty much sets up for either of them to be the choice to start the wild card or a game 163 for the division against the Giants unless their final game has division implications, at which point we'll likely see Buehler Sunday.

 

Kind of hoping the Giants clinch the division on Friday or Saturday later this week so the Dodgers can get all their ducks in a row for the WC game against the Cards....that way I can actively root for both teams to lose during the WC game (LAD and STL) and walk away knowing whoever won still has a hill to climb before reaching the NLCS.

 

What I'm interested in seeing this week is if the Cards are intelligent and give a few of their key bullpen arms a series off and rest some of their regulars down the stretch, or if they keep grinding as hard as possible to extend their current winning streak. 16 straight down the stretch has been impressive to watch even as a fan who actively roots against them against anyone - but at this point part of me wants the Brewers to just mail in their games in STL this week if it means STL keeps the pedal down when it honestly means absolutely nothing for them.

 

I would expect the Cardinals to keep pushing until they have mathematically clinched the wild card spot. Their magic number is 1 to eliminate both the Phillies and Reds, so the Cards will be playing to clinch the spot tomorrow. The Phillies can still win their division, but I’m pretty sure the Braves cannot get the wild card spot no matter what happens.

[MrTPlush]

Padres are going to try and play spoiler, but they are also in serious risk of not even finishing .500 on the year. Facing the Dodgers and Giants on the road is probably not going to be an easy task.

 

Also, the Blue Jays are in danger of missing the postseason with a run different well over 150. The Yankees and Red Sox aren't even close to half that. Tough luck.

[BruisedCrew]

Yankees beat Blue Jays and Red Sox lose to Orioles. The Mariners are making a serious run at one of the AL wild card spots.

[AZBrewCrew]

Are we ready to talk about the ghost of Tony LaRussa voodoo thats happening in Saint Louis yet?

[owbc]

Yankees beat Blue Jays and Red Sox lose to Orioles. The Mariners are making a serious run at one of the AL wild card spots.

 

Mariners win their 11th straight against Oakland, now 0.5 back. Unreal. Going to be a fun weekend.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Are we ready to talk about the ghost of Tony LaRussa voodoo thats happening in Saint Louis yet?

 

Devil Magic. That team has Devil Magic.

[pacopete4]

It's weird that I just don't care about the Cardinals. Keep winning, don't win again, I just don't care. The Brewers have their path to a World Series and have a legit shot to do it. If they fail in that mission, I really won't care about who ends up winning it and that includes if it were the Cardinals.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Yankees beat Blue Jays and Red Sox lose to Orioles. The Mariners are making a serious run at one of the AL wild card spots.

 

Mariners win their 11th straight against Oakland, now 0.5 back. Unreal. Going to be a fun weekend.

 

Yeah, and that place was intense the last two nights. I think the AL is where the action will be going forward. Giants and Braves looking like they'll take care of business in the NL.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

^Yeah, that's exactly where I am. Ideally they take out LA. Even if they took out both we'd get the NLCS at home if we're there. It's either the Cardinals or a 100+ win team so does it really matter?

[monty57]

There could be two game 163's. One for the NL East and one for the NL West. I am hoping for a game 163 for the NL West. Would weaken one of the NL West teams a little at least.

 

I don't have any interest in seeing the Giants and Dodgers come down to the wire. If there's a Game 163, the Dodgers are going to win. Just let the Giants run away with it and guarantee that one of the Dodgers or Cardinals is going home immediately. Preferably the Dodgers, but the Cardinals would be a nice consolation prize.

 

This is where I am.

 

With a 2 game lead and 6 home games remaining the Giants control their own destiny and can banish the Dodgers to the wild card game. I hope they win out.

 

While I agree with this, it makes me think that the Giants have to be one of the least respected teams ever. They have basically led their division start to finish this year, playing them would mean we'd lose home field advantage, and yet everyone wants them to win so that we don't have to face the Dodgers, or even the Cardinals.

 

I get it, but they're looking like the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball teams.

[MrTPlush]

The Cardinals are easily the worst of the three and their hot streak will be long gone before we ever face them. If we then end up losing to them we probably would have lost to any team in the NLCS. I am going to be upset we blew another NLCS.

 

I certainly don't get losing sleep over this hypothetical NLCS match-up. Not only could the Cardinals miss the NLCS, but we might not even see it either. I am more worried about if we can win the NLDS.