Playoff Picture for 2021

[Eye Black]

Now that we’re down to the final month of the season and the Brewers are a lock to make the playoffs I figured we could dedicate a thread to discuss the MLB playoff picture and various scenarios that could play out. Feel free to share what you’re rooting for in terms of playoff matchups as well as what potential paths favor the Brewers and/or others.

 

If the season ended today (Aug. 31) the playoff matchups would be as follows…

 

National League

Wild Card: (5) Reds at (4) Dodgers

NLDS: WC Winner vs. (1) Giants and (3) Braves vs. (2) Brewers

 

American League

Wild Card: (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees

NLDS: WC Winner vs. (1) Rays and (3) White Sox vs. Astros

[rickh150]

The NLDS Game 1 and 2 would be on Friday, Oct. 8, and Sat., Oct. 9. To me, this is big for getting to a playoff game. A middle of the week game starting at noon or 3 would be much tougher to get to in Milwaukee than a night game Fri./Sat.

[sveumrules]

On the outside looking in teams with their current postseason odds...

 

OAK | FanGraphs: 17.3% | PECOTA: 27.8% | 538: 33%

TOR | FanGraphs: 11.4% | PECOTA: 8.5% | 538: 11%

 

SDP | FanGraphs: 28.4% | PECOTA: 52.5% | 538: 20%

PHI | FanGraphs: 23.2% | PECOTA: 35% | 538: 23%

NYM | FanGraphs: 16.6% | PECOTA: 8.5% | 538: 4%

 

Only number that really jumps out to me is that Padres PECOTA, who have the Reds at only 39.6%.

[Eye Black]

Some of the NL playoff races tightened up overnight including…

 

The Giants now lead the Dodgers by just half (0.5) a game in the NL West.

 

The Braves lead over the Phillies in the NL East is down to 2.5 games and Ozzie Albies sustained an injury fouling a ball off his leg/knee. The Mets are 5.5 games back of the division lead.

 

The Padres pulled back to even with the Reds for the final NL wild card spot.

[MrTPlush]

Phillies have come storming back in the Wild Card race and the Cardinals are still quietly within striking distance (both 2.5 back).

[AdvantageSchneider]

Phillies have the easiest schedule in all of baseball remaining. 3 against us and 3 against the braves. 20 against Pitts, Balt, Cubs, Col, and Marlins. Atlanta's is pretty easy too 27th.

 

We're only 4 games back of the Giants for best record overall and 3 behind the dodgers. That's almost a more compelling race(that we probably don't want to win) than the NL central.

[sveumrules]

We're only 4 games back of the Giants for best record overall and 3 behind the dodgers. That's almost a more compelling race(that we probably don't want to win) than the NL central.

 

On July 18th, after sweeping the Reds on the road coming out of the All Star Break, the Brewers were 3.5 games behind the Giants for the best NL record & 7.0 games ahead of Cincy for the NL Central lead.

 

For the last month & a half, the odds of the Crew overtaking the Giants for the top seed have been significantly higher than their odds of losing the NLC to the Reds, which is kind of funny considering there's been comparably little discussion about the more likely, positive outcome than there has been consternation about the less likely, negative outcome.

 

But maybe that's just how the internet works.

[MrTPlush]

I think it helps that no one really cares if we end up the #1 seed. Seems most want to avoid the Dodgers and aren't as concerned about whoever comes out of the NL East. Some certainly want the #1 seed for home field advantage, but that is a much smaller group of people. For many losing the division and grabbing the #1 seed are both negative outcomes.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Brewers aren't even all that good at home and have been exceptional on the road.

[Underachiever]

Can MLB just keep extending Bauer's suspension? Not advocating for him coming back, just asking. I don't know how broad the powers of Manfred's office are.

[KeithStone53151]

Can MLB just keep extending Bauer's suspension? Not advocating for him coming back, just asking. I don't know how broad the powers of Manfred's office are.

 

I'm hoping this doesn't derail the thread, but this article from yesterday has a ton of information about Bauer, the process, and when he might potentially come back. The article really focuses on the baseball-related implications should X happen or should Y happen. Spoiler, this article seems to think he has 0 chance of pitching this year and a fairly low chance of ever pitching again in MLB.

 

So as far as facing the Dodgers is concerned, I would recommend not considering him part of their team at this point.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32119416/will-trevor-bauer-ever-pitch-again-next-los-angeles-dodgers-mlb

[KeithStone53151]

With the Dodgers closing in on the Giants quickly, I'm starting to wonder if we are better off with the 1 seed as if the Dodgers win their division we avoid them in the NLDS whether we are 1 or 2 seed. Would it be theoretically better to play the Braves or the Giants/Padres/Reds? With the Braves playing well, I think whoever of those 3 is probably a better pick. Especially considering all 3 would be firing off their best pitcher/pitchers in the wildcard and we would miss at least one key guy for the first 2 games of the NLDS.

 

I think most would agree the clear 2 best rosters in the NL are the Brewers and Dodgers. Dodgers have the positional edge, but the Brewers probably have the pitching edge even if Kershaw/Gonsolin get back to full strength(does any team in baseball have the pitching edge against us?). I would like to think we will inevitably meet in the NLCS.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think it matters. Baseball has a huge randomness factor and in any event the Brewers have to beat someone really, really good at least twice to win a World Series. As a WI fan I've spent many years hoping to get a certain 'easy' matchup only to get it and then lose. Just try to win every game then the chips fall where they do.

[tmwiese55]

Yes I agree if LA catches SF then we'd want the 1 seed and with how we're playing it's certainly possible. Problem is LA is on fire right now.

 

Yea at this point they should just say Bauer is done for the year and it will get sorted in offseason. It's bad pr to update the suspension every week. Don't think LA would want to deal with the distraction/headache of him coming back right as playoffs are coming anyway. Scherzer makes up for him being gone and Kershaw will be back soon too. Curious if he's even been keeping up with the baseball aspects at this point where he'd be ready to play.

 

Interesting double header on MLB network today. If STL beats Cin in both games they're .5 game out all of a sudden. STL up 1-0 to start the game.

[jonescm128]

Some of the NL playoff races tightened up overnight including…

 

The Giants now lead the Dodgers by just half (0.5) a game in the NL West.

 

The Braves lead over the Phillies in the NL East is down to 2.5 games and Ozzie Albies sustained an injury fouling a ball off his leg/knee. The Mets are 5.5 games back of the division lead.

 

The Padres pulled back to even with the Reds for the final NL wild card spot.

 

PTSD

[Underachiever]

Brewers are three games behind the Dodgers now. If the Dodgers play well enough to pass the Giants, it's hard to imagine the Brewers playing four games better than that. Same with the Giants holding off the Dodgers. We can do the same math games we were doing with the Reds a few weeks ago. If SF goes 16-14 the rest of the way, the Brewers need to go 20-9. And on and on...

[roadcrew3]

I forget the exact number, but the FSWI broadcast said the Giants score the highest percentage of runs based on the HR in all of baseball and that it was a pretty significant % of runs came via the HR. Personally, that doesn't scare me as much in October...feel like as a Brewers fan more often then not we've watched our homerun heavy teams struggle to score in the postseason when the air gets a little colder and pitchers are even more dialed in. I think they will have a tough time scoring in the postseason.

 

Am I wrong though for being concerned about the Giants turning Quintana into a bullpen weapon during a playoff series? Even with his numbers from the Angels, I still don't want to see that guy pitching two innings a game every game against us. Almost surprised the Brewers didn't put in a claim on the guy just to keep him from throwing against us.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think all you realistically hope for is that LAD/SF loses the play-in.

[Underachiever]

I forget the exact number, but the FSWI broadcast said the Giants score the highest percentage of runs based on the HR in all of baseball and that it was a pretty significant % of runs came via the HR. Personally, that doesn't scare me as much in October...feel like as a Brewers fan more often then not we've watched our homerun heavy teams struggle to score in the postseason when the air gets a little colder and pitchers are even more dialed in. I think they will have a tough time scoring in the postseason.

 

Am I wrong though for being concerned about the Giants turning Quintana into a bullpen weapon during a playoff series? Even with his numbers from the Angels, I still don't want to see that guy pitching two innings a game every game against us. Almost surprised the Brewers didn't put in a claim on the guy just to keep him from throwing against us.

Pretty sure they said 52%.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think it helps that no one really cares if we end up the #1 seed. Seems most want to avoid the Dodgers and aren't as concerned about whoever comes out of the NL East. Some certainly want the #1 seed for home field advantage, but that is a much smaller group of people. For many losing the division and grabbing the #1 seed are both negative outcomes.

 

I don't get the sentiment that it's better to have the number two seed. You don't win a World Series without beating the team playing the best at that time regardless of seed.

We can also look at how the Brewers did against the probable opponents. The Brewers have as good of or better record against every NL West playoff hopeful than they do against the East. Hell the Brewers haven't beat the Phillies yet this season.

While I'd rather the Brewers set their pitching up for the playoffs over using them to the max to get the top seed I still think being the top seed is preferable all things being equal.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the best chance the Brewers have is to get into October healthy and with the NL Central Division title, meaning they won't have a 1 and done WC game to play before getting to a best of 5 series. Trying to figure out which opponents lead to the easiest path to win a title when you have to go through the Dodgers to even get there is pretty pointless - at some point it will come down to Milwaukee needing to bead the Dodgers in a best of 5 or 7 game series, and I think their pitching is good enough to do either.

 

Frankly, I'd be a bit disappointed if a Brewers title run wouldn't include being the team responsible for knocking off the Dodgers along the way.

[dlk9s]

I think it helps that no one really cares if we end up the #1 seed. Seems most want to avoid the Dodgers and aren't as concerned about whoever comes out of the NL East. Some certainly want the #1 seed for home field advantage, but that is a much smaller group of people. For many losing the division and grabbing the #1 seed are both negative outcomes.

 

I don't get the sentiment that it's better to have the number two seed. You don't win a World Series without beating the team playing the best at that time regardless of seed.

We can also look at how the Brewers did against the probable opponents. The Brewers have as good of or better record against every NL West playoff hopeful than they do against the East. Hell the Brewers haven't beat the Phillies yet this season.

While I'd rather the Brewers set their pitching up for the playoffs over using them to the max to get the top seed I still think being the top seed is preferable all things being equal.

 

Well sure, all things being equal. But all things aren't equal. The Dodgers are clearly the most dangerous potential opponent and a team that many believe is the best in all of baseball. I would prefer a scenario where they have two chances to be eliminated before a matchup with the Brewers.

 

Yes, obviously the Brewers still have to win in the NLDS and will have to beat good teams regardless, but it would be great if one of those teams wasn't the Dodgers.

[BruisedCrew]

We're only 4 games back of the Giants for best record overall and 3 behind the dodgers. That's almost a more compelling race(that we probably don't want to win) than the NL central.

 

On July 18th, after sweeping the Reds on the road coming out of the All Star Break, the Brewers were 3.5 games behind the Giants for the best NL record & 7.0 games ahead of Cincy for the NL Central lead.

 

For the last month & a half, the odds of the Crew overtaking the Giants for the top seed have been significantly higher than their odds of losing the NLC to the Reds, which is kind of funny considering there's been comparably little discussion about the more likely, positive outcome than there has been consternation about the less likely, negative outcome.

 

But maybe that's just how the internet works.

 

I think the reason is that as long as the Brewers win the division, the marginal value of the seed is relatively small.

 

But the difference between winning the division and losing the division (and possibly missing the playoffs entirely) is huge to the point of possibly ending the season.

[BruisedCrew]

The Brewers aren't even all that good at home and have been exceptional on the road.

 

I wouldn’t want to count on that working that way in the playoffs.

 

Because the Brewers strength is pitching I expect that their playoff games will be lower scoring. In those kinds of games I like the advantage of batting last as the game gets into the later innings.

 

I can see the preference for playing the NL East team in the division series instead of the possibility that the Dodgers or Giants would be the wild card winner. But whatever advantage that might bring isn’t enough for me to hope that the Brewers avoid the number one seed.

 

I will be rooting for the Giants to hold off the Dodgers and win the NL West. I would be doing that even if the Brewers were in the midst of a 100 loss season. I’m afraid that the Giants current COVID problems, combined with the Dodgers apparently rounding into form for the stretch run, might make it tough for them to hold on.

[markedman5]

Pardon my ignorance but is the man on 2nd extra inning rule also being used in the playoffs? I would think not but wanted to make sure.