Future of the OF

[TigerUppercut]

https://theathletic.com/2798709/2021/08/31/ten-mlb-hitting-prospects-primed-to-pop-into-jim-bowdens-top-50-in-2022/

 

Interesting read here. While Mitchell has been battling through injuries of late, the future Milwaukee OF looks really bright provided they hang on to these two. You'd like to see their power numbers spike up next year and beyond but defninitely two contracts that could help balance out the Yelich contract and open up dollars to maybe invest in one of Woody or Burnes.

[Greenleaf1]

I don't have an Athletic subscription, but Brewers have four CF prospects who all figure to be in their top 10 at the beginning of next year with Mitchell, Frelick, Perez, and Gray.

 

They all seem to be rising fast through the system, hopefully one or two of them could be ready to contribute toward the end of 2022 or beginning of 2023, just as expensive OF contracts are coming off the books.

[PlayerHader]

Joey Wiemer...

 

Does Ashby stay "prospect-eligible" next year? Do we have a top-15 system next year?

[reillymcshane]

https://theathletic.com/2798709/2021/08/31/ten-mlb-hitting-prospects-primed-to-pop-into-jim-bowdens-top-50-in-2022/

 

Interesting read here. While Mitchell has been battling through injuries of late, the future Milwaukee OF looks really bright provided they hang on to these two. You'd like to see their power numbers spike up next year and beyond but defninitely two contracts that could help balance out the Yelich contract and open up dollars to maybe invest in one of Woody or Burnes.

In the article, Jim Bowden listed his top 10 outfield prospects primed to break into the top 50 (hence those URL). Frelick was #1 while Mitchell was #5.

[Roderick]

... but Brewers have four CF prospects who all figure to be in their top 10 at the beginning of next year with Mitchell, Frelick, Gray, Perez, and Gray.

 

I hope Gray is so good, he needs to get listed twice.

[Greenleaf1]

... but Brewers have four CF prospects who all figure to be in their top 10 at the beginning of next year with Mitchell, Frelick, Gray, Perez, and Gray.

 

I hope Gray is so good, he needs to gets listed twice.

 

Maybe Gray Sr. can play CF.

[Outlander]

Does Ashby stay "prospect-eligible" next year? Do we have a top-15 system next year?

Most likely not, in the past September did not count toward the 45 day rookie status eligibility but that changed so September/October days will count.

[igor67]

Does Ashby stay "prospect-eligible" next year? Do we have a top-15 system next year?

Most likely not, in the past September did not count toward the 45 day rookie status eligibility but that changed so September/October days will count.

That really makes it almost ridiculous to think how little credit our prospect rankings would have gotten over time considering how well Ashby might be pitching by next year. It's all explainable, but still remarkable to be in a position to have 3+ All star level starters, and not have a system ranked above 20 in that time.

[BigDaddy1974]

Does Ashby stay "prospect-eligible" next year? Do we have a top-15 system next year?

Most likely not, in the past September did not count toward the 45 day rookie status eligibility but that changed so September/October days will count.

That really makes it almost ridiculous to think how little credit our prospect rankings would have gotten over time considering how well Ashby might be pitching by next year. It's all explainable, but still remarkable to be in a position to have 3+ All star level starters, and not have a system ranked above 20 in that time.

 

 

Excellent point. I think it’s fair to say many of the folks who have graded the Brewers system over the past several years have underestimated their talent level.

[nate82]

The Brewers do have some really good prospects in the OF.

 

Tier 1:

Mitchell (AA)

Frelick (A+)

Gray (A+)

 

Tier 2:

Hedbert Perez (A)

Wiemer (A+)

 

Tier 3:

LG Castillo (A+)

Ward (A+)

Ernesto Martinez (A)

Bello (A)

Lutz (A)

Carlos Rodriguez (A)

Pablo Abreu (A)

 

The exciting players are in tier 1 and tier 2. I wouldn't be surprised if someone in tier 3 will become a 4th or 5th OF. Martinez, Castillo and Ward all look like they can project to be at least a 4th/5th OF. If everything clicks for them possibly even everyday players but they have a lot they need to work on.

 

The Brewers have some exciting guys maybe not in the top 10 or top 25 but some real exciting players. If Mitchell continues to play well and stays healthy he should be in AAA at some point next year and if Frelick continues to succeed he should be in AA by the middle of the year next year. So Frelick should have an ETA of 2024 and Mitchell an ETA of 2023. You could possibly see both in the majors at the same time. Then you have Wiemer and Hedbert just behind them. Talent wise Wiemer is reminding me of Corey Hart, the way that he plays is what really makes the Corey Hart comparison fit.

 

Should be an interesting 2-3 years here for the Brewers in the OF. I wouldn't be surprised if a few are traded for some other depth that the Brewers are lacking in the minors. I think we could see some traded for some pitching depth.

[Austin Tatious]

To be clear, there is a very good chance that Hedbert Perez is the best of the bunch. Mitchell is the safest best but Perez is a phenom.

[sveumrules]

I'd put Hendry Mendez ahead of all the guys in Tier 3.

 

Ranked #32 on the FanGraphs preseason list, doesn't turn 18 for two months & has put up a 319/406/484 triple slash with 12 BB / 9 K in 107 PAs split between the DSL & ACL.

[igor67]

In some amount of fairness very few teams have ever cranked out as many good young starting pitchers as we have the last few years, and all prior experience would indicate that as a team we were worse than average at developing pitchers historically. I would have been happy 3 years ago if you told me 1 of Woody, Burnes, and Peralta would turn into a TOR pitcher. That has all seemingly changed.

[nate82]

I'd put Hendry Mendez ahead of all the guys in Tier 3.

 

Ranked #32 on the FanGraphs preseason list, doesn't turn 18 for two months & has put up a 319/406/484 triple slash with 12 BB / 9 K in 107 PAs split between the DSL & ACL.

 

I tried to stay away from players below A ball. I was hesitant to put in Hedbert since he was just promoted to A ball.

 

Just too many unknowns at those levels.

[umphrey]

I didn't think Herbert could play CF?

[sveumrules]

I didn't think Herbert could play CF?

 

He's played 101 innings in CF, 89 innings in RF and 22 innings in LF so far this year.

 

Mitchell & Frelick have better scouting reports for CF defense, so if all three end up in Milwaukee someday Hedbert would probably be in a corner, but thats a long ways off yet.

 

Defense is always the trickiest to judge. Lawrie was supposed to be a bat first / find a position for him somewhere prospect that got most of his career value from his glove & never hit after his first callup. Arcia was supposed to be a gold glove caliber SS but put up middling defensive numbers. Grisham was consisered a marginal CF defensively in the minors but has won a GG & graded out as a top 5 defensive CF the last two years.

[Eye Black]

Surprised no one included Korry Howell. He has struggled in a very brief appearance thus far at Double-A, but I think he’s a solid CF prospect (who can also fill a utility role) that could certainly find his way to the majors in a couple of years.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

What do folks think of Corey Ray. He has a 825 OPS and has reduced his K rate to 28%. Once a top prospect, so you never know. Maybe he can become the next Ty Taylor

[Outlander]

Too hard to say, such a small sample as he can't stay on the field, constantly injured.

[sveumrules]

Surprised no one included Korry Howell. He has struggled in a very brief appearance thus far at Double-A, but I think he’s a solid CF prospect (who can also fill a utility role) that could certainly find his way to the majors in a couple of years.

 

Yeah, I really like Howell's speed/defense combo, but kind of think of him in more of the (hopefully super) utility category.

 

Red flag for Korry is that 29.8% K rate, though his 10.9% BB rate & .202 ISO offer some encouragement. Obviously not one to one comparisons with everyone different ages with different sample sizes at different levels, but here's how the "Big Five OF" have fared in the same categories...

 

Mitchell: 24.2 K% | 17.8 BB% | .163 ISO (256 PAs)

Frelick: 12.2 K% | 11.2 BB% | .163 ISO (98 PAs)

Hedbert: 25.8 K% | 6.1 BB% | .242 ISO (132 PAs)

Gray Jr.: 27.6 K% | 11.4 BB% | .272 ISO (413 PAs)

Wiemer: 21.8 K% | 13.1 BB% | .242 ISO (390 PAs)

[umphrey]

I did not notice the K rate on Howell. I've been buying into K rate as a prediction of future success a lot recently. Hopefully he can bring it down next year. He's on pace to be well above 30% at MLB level and almost no one can survive there as an above average or even average player. It's a number that almost always goes up when a guy gets promoted though.

[clancyphile]

Surprised no one included Korry Howell. He has struggled in a very brief appearance thus far at Double-A, but I think he’s a solid CF prospect (who can also fill a utility role) that could certainly find his way to the majors in a couple of years.

 

Yeah, I really like Howell's speed/defense combo, but kind of think of him in more of the (hopefully super) utility category.

 

Red flag for Korry is that 29.8% K rate, though his 10.9% BB rate & .202 ISO offer some encouragement. Obviously not one to one comparisons with everyone different ages with different sample sizes at different levels, but here's how the "Big Five OF" have fared in the same categories...

 

Mitchell: 24.2 K% | 17.8 BB% | .163 ISO (256 PAs)

Frelick: 12.2 K% | 11.2 BB% | .163 ISO (98 PAs)

Hedbert: 25.8 K% | 6.1 BB% | .242 ISO (132 PAs)

Gray Jr.: 27.6 K% | 11.4 BB% | .272 ISO (413 PAs)

Wiemer: 21.8 K% | 13.1 BB% | .242 ISO (390 PAs)

 

His adjustment to AA still looks okay in the small sample - he has 5 walks to 48 ABs, and the ISO is .146. Next year could tell the tale as to whether he's another Hernan Perez or if he is a poor man's Javier Baez. He's played SS, 2B, 3B, and all three OF positions, so if he can adjust and get the K rate down, he's a keeper.

 

That said, the OF's future is looking very good. Corey Ray is a left-handed Keon Broxton. Mitchell reminds me of Lorenzo Cain, to be honest. Perez, Gray, and Wiemer all look good so far in the power department.

 

That, of course, doesn't include players like Howell, Ernesto Martinez, and others who may be thought of as infielders, but who can also play one or more OF positions competently.

 

The system's deep enough that the Crew could afford to give Adames a Yelich-type "face of the franchise" deal. Yeah, we have some SS/2B prospects... but Adames and Yelich could be the 3-4 hitters for the Crew for the rest of the decade.