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2021-08-25: Reds (Castillo) at Brewers (Woodruff) [Brewers win, 4-1 -- Avi Garcia shines both at the plate and in the field]

Eye Black

By Eye Black,
in Archived Game Threads

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sdcheezhd Draft Eligible

sdcheezhd

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For those tracking playoff odds, the Brewers are now a 99.9% statistical lock per Fangraphs to make the playoffs. Division at 98.3%. St. Louis eliminated from the division race.

 

Fivethirtyeight has the same lock for the playoffs, 96% on the division, and the Cardinals also out of the division race completely.

 

Bill James had a formula for a clinch - games ahead x (games ahead + 1) / games left to play x 4. The Brewers have clinched v the Cards using that as well.

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BruisedCrew ACL Brewers

BruisedCrew

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Castillo rebounded after his miserable first two months, but has a 5+ ERA in August.

 

Castillo and Woodruff have both had pretty crappy Augusts. Woodruff in 3 starts has an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500. Castillo has 4 starts with an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.435.

 

Difference is Castillo was a dumpster fire in April and May, while Woodruff was pitching like a Cy Young candidate. Like I said earlier, Castillo will likely pitch well against the Brewers tonight (because he always does), but if one of these guys is going to right the ship for the rest of the season, I imagine it's likely going to be Woodruff.

 

Castillo had one awful outing against the Indians in which he gave up 8 runs. He also has two August starts in which he gave up just 1 run, once in 6 innings and once in 7.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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brewcrewdue80 ACL Brewers

brewcrewdue80

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Woody’s got the good fastball going tonight……great to see.

 

Probably only 1 more inning though

 

That fine balance between high Ks and having pitches put in play. Tonight high Ks 10! through 5. Throwing a lot of pitches because nobody able to put the ball in play.

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homer MVP

homer

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I think he's safe but they may not overturn
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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LouisEly Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

LouisEly

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Wild bottom of the 9th in the Giants-Mets game. Belt drops a pop foul, the LF and CF collide and drop and easy fly. Mets have runners on 1st and 2nd with one out; Lindor pops up the first pitch and get roundly booed. Nimmo works a 8-9 pitch walk. Now Alonso up with the bases loaded against the LHP McGee.
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