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2021-08-25: Reds (Castillo) at Brewers (Woodruff) [Brewers win, 4-1 -- Avi Garcia shines both at the plate and in the field]

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markedman5 Biloxi Shuckers

markedman5

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For the people that were wondering if Burnes was hurt

 

"As far as how I felt, everything felt good," Burnes said. "The command with the cutter was pretty poor. That's two starts in a row now that the cutter command hasn't been there, so when your go-to pitch to get into a count is not there and you're trying to throw from behind in the count all night, it's tough.

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PeaveyFury Biloxi Shuckers

PeaveyFury

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For those tracking playoff odds, the Brewers are now a 99.9% statistical lock per Fangraphs to make the playoffs. Division at 98.3%. St. Louis eliminated from the division race.

 

Fivethirtyeight has the same lock for the playoffs, 96% on the division, and the Cardinals also out of the division race completely.

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BruisedCrew ACL Brewers

BruisedCrew

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Castillo rebounded after his miserable first two months, but has a 5+ ERA in August.

 

Castillo and Woodruff have both had pretty crappy Augusts. Woodruff in 3 starts has an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500. Castillo has 4 starts with an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.435.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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Ron Robinsons Beard Biloxi Shuckers

Ron Robinsons Beard

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Castillo rebounded after his miserable first two months, but has a 5+ ERA in August.

 

Castillo and Woodruff have both had pretty crappy Augusts. Woodruff in 3 starts has an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.500. Castillo has 4 starts with an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.435.

 

Difference is Castillo was a dumpster fire in April and May, while Woodruff was pitching like a Cy Young candidate. Like I said earlier, Castillo will likely pitch well against the Brewers tonight (because he always does), but if one of these guys is going to right the ship for the rest of the season, I imagine it's likely going to be Woodruff.

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Cool Hand Lucroy First Round Pick

Cool Hand Lucroy

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That ump scorecard confirms what lots of folks thought last night. Nice to see the analytics back up intuition. A run and a quarter has to be one of the most lopsided zones all year, right? Wonder if that's trackable...

 

Great to take that game. Hope we get May Woodruff. Taking the first two would be really nice, especially because you wouldn't even have to think twice about resting Adames during a matinee.

 

Edit: just saw the Phillies had a +2.4 or something zone last Wednesday. They lost the game 4-2 somehow. If strike zones are routinely advantaging one team by a run or more, that's the best argument I have seen for robot umps. If blue could just keep it within half a run either way 95+% of the time, I'd be cool with that. But when inconsistency can so favor one team...might be time to let it go...

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KeithStone53151 Carolina Mudcats

KeithStone53151

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Biggest thing in my opinion, keep your cool. You know the zone is going to suck, don't say anything, don't breathe too hard, don't do anything that might hurt these umpires precious feelings and get yourself ejected. We don't have the depth we normally might with Adames/Escobar down right now. Can't afford to lose a key player to a bad call.
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wildcat83 ACL Brewers

wildcat83

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Brewers Batters -6.01

Brewers Picthers +20.39

 

Brewers have been on the better end of the calls in 55.6% of games, but obviously very pitcher driven. Our batters, as it seems live, get the shaft more often than not.

 

If I’m reading the chart right almost every teams batter impact is negative with the exception of Oakland. How on earth are they getting calls every single other team is not?

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umphrey Draft Eligible

umphrey

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That ump scorecard confirms what lots of folks thought last night. Nice to see the analytics back up intuition. A run and a quarter has to be one of the most lopsided zones all year, right? Wonder if that's trackable...

 

Great to take that game. Hope we get May Woodruff. Taking the first two would be really nice, especially because you wouldn't even have to think twice about resting Adames during a matinee.

 

Edit: just saw the Phillies had a +2.4 or something zone last Wednesday. They lost the game 4-2 somehow. If strike zones are routinely advantaging one team by a run or more, that's the best argument I have seen for robot umps. If blue could just keep it within half a run either way 95+% of the time, I'd be cool with that. But when inconsistency can so favor one team...might be time to let it go...

I love ump scorecards but you have to take it with a grain of salt. Its not so simple to say how many runs were gained/lost by 1 bad call. And its a probability thing anyway. A hitter can gain a 4th strike due to a bad call and hit a grand slam but it won't go down as a 4 run differential.

I tried to log in on my iPad. Turns out it was an etch-a-sketch and I don't own an iPad. Also, I'm out of vodka.
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SomewhereInTime First Round Pick

SomewhereInTime

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That ump scorecard confirms what lots of folks thought last night. Nice to see the analytics back up intuition. A run and a quarter has to be one of the most lopsided zones all year, right? Wonder if that's trackable...

 

Great to take that game. Hope we get May Woodruff. Taking the first two would be really nice, especially because you wouldn't even have to think twice about resting Adames during a matinee.

 

Edit: just saw the Phillies had a +2.4 or something zone last Wednesday. They lost the game 4-2 somehow. If strike zones are routinely advantaging one team by a run or more, that's the best argument I have seen for robot umps. If blue could just keep it within half a run either way 95+% of the time, I'd be cool with that. But when inconsistency can so favor one team...might be time to let it go...

I love ump scorecards but you have to take it with a grain of salt. Its not so simple to say how many runs were gained/lost by 1 bad call. And its a probability thing anyway. A hitter can gain a 4th strike due to a bad call and hit a grand slam but it won't go down as a 4 run differential.

 

Or Wily Adames can hit a double later in his at bat after not getting a walk he should've had. There appeared to be several examples of this last night where the batter reached anyways.

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KeithStone53151 Carolina Mudcats

KeithStone53151

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Considering the standings, this isn't a bad time for him to work on his offspeed a bit more in game situations. But when it counts, go to what you do best.

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