Eligible for Rule 5 Draft

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Below is my list of names who are eligible for rule 5 draft. I did not include minor league free agents we signed and may have missed one or two of the international signings. I've included who I think should be added to the 40 man roster, what level they are currently at, and what year they signed. With Ashby, Cousins, and Sanchez added in-season and players traded off, there is no roster crunch this year. There should easily be 10 spots open on the 40 man roster this year with free agents leaving and non-tender candidates.

 

Korry Howell is the only lock IMO to be added. Feel free to discuss.

 

Note: The first group signed in 2015 will be six year minor league free agents at the end of the season if not added to the 40 man roster.

 

[pre]Name Protect? 2021 Level Signed in

N.Walters No A+ 2015

Sibrian No Arz 2015

J.Lujano No AA 2015

Coca No A+ 2015

Pinero No A 2015

L. Crawford No AA 2015

 

Erceg No AA 2016

Webb No AA 2016

Z.Brown No AAA 2016

T.Jankins No AAA 2016

W.Wilson Maybe AAA 2016

McClanahan No A+ 2016

G.Garcia No A+ 2016

P.Abreu No A+ 2016

F. Adames No A+ 2016

 

R. Hitt No AA 2017

B. Diaz No AA 2017

C. Beckman No AA 2017

Spanberger No AA 2017

T. Lutz Maybe AA 2017

C. Lemons No A- 2017

B. Murphy No A- 2017

M. Lazar Maybe Inj 2017

J.Ward No A+ 2017

J. Bullock Maybe A+ 2017

LG Castillo No A+ 2017

K Marales No Arz 2017

C. Robinson No A+ 2017

L. Barker No AAA 2017

V. Castenada Maybe AAA 2017

M. Hardy No AA 2017

A. Hall No A+ 2017

M. Vassalotti No A 2017

E. Martinez Maybe A 2017

C. Sierra No A+ 2017

D. Castillo No A 2017

I. Puello No A 2017

J. Geraldo No A 2017

J Chirinos No Rk 2017

C. Rodriguez No A+ 2017

L. Ernesto No Rk 2017

 

N. Zavolas No AA 2018

D. Fry Maybe AA 2018

Hintzen Maybe AA 2018

K. Howell Yes AA 2018

C. Andrews No Inj 2018

S. Sunitch No A+ 2018

Matulovich No A+ 2018

Schanuel No A+ 2018

K.Rios No A+ 2018

P. Strzelecki No AA 2018[/pre]

 

If I made any errors, let me know and I will update the list.

Edit: Revised based on end of year stats

Edited October 29, 2021 by ClosetBrewerFan

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Rules for eligibility:

 

The Rule 5 draft is held each December at the Winter Meetings, and it consists of a Major League portion and a minor league portion. By November 20, each club must set its 40-man roster and submit reserve lists for all major and minor-league levels (See Minor League Rosters). Between November 20 and the Rule 5 draft, a club may add Major League free agents to its 40-man roster but may not add any player from its minor league reserve lists.

 

After 4 or 5 years as a professional, a player must be added to his club’s 40-man roster or exposed to the 29 other clubs in the Rule 5 draft. (Under the new CBA, a club has 5 years to evaluate a player who signs his first pro contract at 18 years old or younger, but only 4 years to decide on a player who signs at age 19.) For purposes of calculating years as a pro, the counting begins the day a player signs his first pro contract, not the season he begins to play.

 

Players signed in 2018 who are not eligible (18 or older at the time) are: Turang, Gray, A. Uribe, Valerio, C. Rodriguez, Bello, Jarvis. There are some clear locks in that group for 2022 draft.

[Mass Haas]

Thank you for accepting my invite on this!

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Happy to do it and its no problem. I keep a running list throughout the year because I'm weird that way...

 

I don't track minor league free agents so I will leave that up to someone else to create. However, its pretty common for the Brewers to add a player to 40 man to prevent losing them to FA, so I took a quick look and someone like Carlos Luna might be a candidate. He will be a free agent if we don't protect him.

 

Note: I assumed Luke Barker was a minor league free agent as well, but I don't think he is. He signed in 2017 as an UDFA at age 25. Unusual story, but I would assume he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Can't imagine they would protect him if they did not add him during the season when they were desperate for relievers. I will update the first posting.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I believe that the Rodriguez-Ernesto July 2 class was the year after Abreu's so I'd think that group would be in eligible this season. Also, I think Ramey has one more season.

 

This group is kind of a who's who of the 20-50 spots on a Brewers prospect list. I don't know if there is a single lock. Howell is the one guy probably ranked higher and probably the most likely to be protected, but if he struggles during the rest of the AA season, I could see the Brewers trying to sneak him through, especially in a Rule 5 draft likely to be pretty deep. Also, I wouldn't count out Andrews getting protected, even with the injury. He was looking like a lock to be added before it, and the Brewers seemed to be giving every indication he was in their bullpen plans for the future.

 

Usually, the guys who get picked are either MLB-ready or have higher-end potential. The MLB ready guys on the list who could by picked seem to be Wilson and Barker (who, as I've said before, I hope gets taken for his sake), maybe Fry if a team thinks he can catch well enough to be a No. 2 at that spot. Andrews sort of straddles this category with injury stash potential.

 

I don't know, other than Howell and maybe Lutz if a team thinks they can get him right, if any of the other guys are likely to get taken. If Uribe were eligible, he'd fall into the high-potential end of the spectrum, but I just don't know if guys like Robinson and Castaneda have that kind of cred to balance out not pitching above A ball. Webb has stuff but is older and has struggled. Brown has been hurt. Lazar had a great 2019, but the injury, velocity and not pitching above A-ball make him unlikely to be picked. Bullock is a maybe, but probably has to finish strong at AA to have a realistic shot. Martinez certainly has upside on the hitting end, but a combination of the swing, the strikeout rate and the distance from the majors make him unlikely, and I don't know that I can see anyone giving a big league roster spot to any of the High-A outfielders (Ward, Castillo, Rodriguez).

 

As far as chances to get protected:

75% -- Howell

50% -- Lutz, Andrews

25% -- Bullock, Wilson, Fry, Rodriguez

< 10% -- Everyone else

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Good catch on Ramey. He's a 2018 draftee and signed as a 17 year old, so he is ineligible. Those international signings are tough to track down. Its when they "signed" not when they first starting playing. So you may be right about Rodriguez and Larry Ernesto even though they first started playing in 2018 at 18 or under. I'll see if I can find the dates they sign and will update.

 

I generally think that players in the clubs top 15 prospects are locks and Howell is right there. I called him a lock primarily because he is the most likeliest to be added and they have plenty of roster space. There is very little risk not to add him. Andrews is a good point. I had him lower because of the injury and his perceived low ceiling but you never know with the rule 5 draft. He is close to the majors and the possible RP/bOF/PR/PH may be intriguing to a team.

[Mass Haas]

I'll see if I can find the dates they sign and will update.

 

If you scroll to the bottom of each player's MiLB.com Player profile Page, the very first chronological listing is the signing date.

 

You may have to click on "Show More Transactions" if a longer list of transactions for that player.

 

For instance:

 

Ernesto Martinez - May 27, 2017

 

That may be a bad example, because MiLB actually confused part of the linked page with another player with a similar name, but you get the idea.

[damuelle]

Interesting decisions. With the likelihood of 26-man rosters, universal DH and less concern over pitchers' fatigue (not ramping up from 60 games to 162 games again), it may be more attractive than ever for teams to select and keep Rule 5 picks.

 

With that in mind, we may want to protect more than usual, e.g. Bullock, Howell, Lutz, Lazar, Barker, Wilson, Andrews.

[nate82]

I don't think Ernesto would get pick in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft and I don't think he would be picked in the minor league portion either. Unless a team is in love with him and wants him as an organizational roster filler type then sure.

 

I think Brown or Barker are probably the closest things to being locks for being picked in the Rule 5 Draft on the MLB portion. A team rebuilding could see Brown or Barker as guys to put in the back of the bullpen or as 5th or 6th starters.

 

Also anyone on the 38-player Triple-A roster are ineligible for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft.

 

This article explains the Rule 5 Draft rather well:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-rule-5-draft/

[igor67]

I'm wondering if the Brewers might actually try and snag a player or 2 at some levels next year. So many very young prospects plus the glut of available players?

[Outlander]

I agree on Howell, doubt anybody else is protected and if somebody wants to pick one of these other guys up then best of luck to the player. Like last year there is 40 man room but it fills up during the season so would rather not add these fringe guys and then DFA them later next season. I do believe somebody would take a chance on Barker.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don't think Ernesto would get pick in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft and I don't think he would be picked in the minor league portion either. Unless a team is in love with him and wants him as an organizational roster filler type then sure.

 

I think Brown or Barker are probably the closest things to being locks for being picked in the Rule 5 Draft on the MLB portion. A team rebuilding could see Brown or Barker as guys to put in the back of the bullpen or as 5th or 6th starters.

 

Also anyone on the 38-player Triple-A roster are ineligible for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft.

 

This article explains the Rule 5 Draft rather well:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-rule-5-draft/

I have been as big of a Brown fan as anyone, but if he didn’t go the last two years, I can’t see him being taken this year.

 

Also, that is a bit of hyperbole on Martinez. I’m not even that bullish on him because of the swing and the strikeouts, but there is a better chance he goes #1 in the minor league phase than not get picked. I believe the last two guys the Brewers picked in the Rule 5 draft posted OPS’s in the .600 range the year before they were chosen. Unless someone like Barker asks to be exposed and the Brewers grant him it like I believe happened with a couple of guys (Halton and Gindl maybe) a number of years ago, the best prospect I could see them leaving available in the minor league phase is Jesus Lujano (position of organizational depth, one year left).

[MadThinker88]

Just something to ponder:

 

There are a number of other teams with 40 man roster crunches.

There is a open trade window post world series conclusion to the roster deadline of 11/19/21. <-- edited for accuracy

 

The Brewers might be in a spot where it could add a higher upside player (or 2) that is on the outside looking in for 1 of those clubs VIA TRADE before the roster deadline. That way the Brewers can send the player into the minors next season without the hassle of the R5 rules from selecting the player via the draft.

 

Assets that could be used:

2022 Competitive Balance pick of the Brewers

Lower level minor league pieces

Edited October 30, 2021 by MadThinker88

[clancyphile]

I don't think Ernesto would get pick in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft and I don't think he would be picked in the minor league portion either. Unless a team is in love with him and wants him as an organizational roster filler type then sure.

 

I think Brown or Barker are probably the closest things to being locks for being picked in the Rule 5 Draft on the MLB portion. A team rebuilding could see Brown or Barker as guys to put in the back of the bullpen or as 5th or 6th starters.

 

Also anyone on the 38-player Triple-A roster are ineligible for the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft.

 

This article explains the Rule 5 Draft rather well:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-rule-5-draft/

I have been as big of a Brown fan as anyone, but if he didn’t go the last two years, I can’t see him being taken this year.

 

Also, that is a bit of hyperbole on Martinez. I’m not even that bullish on him because of the swing and the strikeouts, but there is a better chance he goes #1 in the minor league phase than not get picked. I believe the last two guys the Brewers picked in the Rule 5 draft posted OPS’s in the .600 range the year before they were chosen. Unless someone like Barker asks to be exposed and the Brewers grant him it like I believe happened with a couple of guys (Halton and Gindl maybe) a number of years ago, the best prospect I could see them leaving available in the minor league phase is Jesus Lujano (position of organizational depth, one year left).

 

Martinez has emerged as a potential player. I like the walks, I like the power, I like that he added stolen bases and the ability to play center to his repertoire this season. Worth protecting from the minor-league phase.

[nate82]

 

Also, that is a bit of hyperbole on Martinez. I’m not even that bullish on him because of the swing and the strikeouts, but there is a better chance he goes #1 in the minor league phase than not get picked. I believe the last two guys the Brewers picked in the Rule 5 draft posted OPS’s in the .600 range the year before they were chosen. Unless someone like Barker asks to be exposed and the Brewers grant him it like I believe happened with a couple of guys (Halton and Gindl maybe) a number of years ago, the best prospect I could see them leaving available in the minor league phase is Jesus Lujano (position of organizational depth, one year left).

 

Majority of the minor league players taken in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft are guys who are normally roster filler types. Normally players who are your AAAA type players that a team needs to fill some AAA or AA roster spots. Teams don't normally draft guys to fill holes in A ball as there are usually enough players to pick from in their organization already.

 

The majority of rule 5 draft picks on the minor league side are pitchers. For the 2020 rule 5 draft 15 of the 25 players drafted in round 1 were pitchers. Unless a team is looking specifically for someone like Ernesto I don't see him being picked in the minor league portion of the draft. I am not sure the Brewers would add Ernesto to the 38man in AAA either.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Majority of the minor league players taken in the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft are guys who are normally roster filler types. Normally players who are your AAAA type players that a team needs to fill some AAA or AA roster spots. Teams don't normally draft guys to fill holes in A ball as there are usually enough players to pick from in their organization already.

 

The majority of rule 5 draft picks on the minor league side are pitchers. For the 2020 rule 5 draft 15 of the 25 players drafted in round 1 were pitchers. Unless a team is looking specifically for someone like Ernesto I don't see him being picked in the minor league portion of the draft. I am not sure the Brewers would add Ernesto to the 38man in AAA either.

 

Most teams use it to fill holes because those are usually the only types of players available, and two of the few hitters picked in the top 15 last year I don't believe had cracked full season ball yet.

 

If I remember correctly last year the Brewers protected everyone except two pitchers who I don't believe had thrown a pitch in at least two seasons and the since released Bubba Derby. Even leaving eight spots for early minor league free agent signings and possibly picking a player themselves, do you honestly see 30 players on that list worth protecting more than Martinez? Some team would see the power-speed combo and say, given the price, why not.

[damuelle]

Over his last 17.0 innings of work, Lucas Erceg has perhaps changed his Rule 5 Protection Likelihood from "Hard No" (0%) to "Oh My, Let's Take a Look at This" (2%).

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I updated the first post of this list to remove names of released players (Derby) and made a few tweaks to some of the maybes. I still think Howell is likely to be protected with Bullock maybe next likely. Lutz was awful so I think he could slip through the draft without being protected. Hintzen and Castenada have an outside chance of being protected. Lazar, Wilson, Martinez, and Fry are the only other names I think have a chance.

 

Brewers have lots of free agents clearing spots as well as potential non-tenders, so I could see 10 open spots on the 40 man roster. There should be no risk of losing a player with that many spots open.

[MadThinker88]

I updated the first post of this list to remove names of released players (Derby) and made a few tweaks to some of the maybes. I still think Howell is likely to be protected with Bullock maybe next likely. Lutz was awful so I think he could slip through the draft without being protected. Hintzen and Castenada have an outside chance of being protected. Lazar, Wilson, Martinez, and Fry are the only other names I think have a chance.

 

Brewers have lots of free agents clearing spots as well as potential non-tenders, so I could see 10 open spots on the 40 man roster. There should be no risk of losing a player with that many spots open.

 

IF the Brewers truly can open that many spaces without detriment to the MLB squad, Stearns & Arnold should be in talent acquisition mode before the roster deadline to pick up a couple of players from CLE/ Tampa Bay/ others clubs with a true roster crunch.

 

Players acquired could then be depth or trade chips for the Brewers later in 2022 & 2023..

[ClosetBrewerFan]

IF the Brewers truly can open that many spaces without detriment to the MLB squad, Stearns & Arnold should be in talent acquisition mode before the roster deadline to pick up a couple of players from CLE/ Tampa Bay/ others clubs with a true roster crunch.

 

Players acquired could then be depth or trade chips for the Brewers later in 2022 & 2023..

Here is how I arrived at that number:

45 total players: 40 players on roster with 5 on 60 Day DL

- 7 free agents: Anderson, Boxbeger, Escobar, Norris, Pina, Strickland, and Axford

- 1 Garcia declines Mutual option

- 7 Non-Tender/DFA: Lopes, Maile, Mathias, Milner, Topa, Vogelbach, Yardley

=30 (10 open spots)

 

Now they have no reason to DFA pre-arb guys like Lopes, Mathias, Milner, Topa, and Yardley but they could if they have someone better. I think Maile will be non-tendered since he no longer has an option left and that was his main source of value (his Sept numbers notwithstanding). Vogelbach seems redundant on this team unless the DH is added. I think Topa gets released and resigned as a minor leaguer to finish up his rehab in a wink/wink type of contract. Milner is replaceable with a minor league free agent. I did not include Pablo Reyes, Corey Ray, or Angel Perdomo but they are on the bubble as well. They may have shown enough last year to keep them on the roster.

 

Since they only really need to protect one Rule 5 guy (maybe a couple more) they could do some creative things with this advantage. As you say, make a trade with teams that have a roster crunch, pick up some players on waivers, and/or protect a couple of minor league free agents like David Dahl and Carlos Luna.

[LouisEly]

If Pina leaves, they need a backup catcher. Doubtful that Feliciano is ready, and he should probably be in AAA to get more experience, so one of Pina or Maile will need to be brought back.

[MrTPlush]

Rule 5 drafting is always a tricky bridge to cross. There are many players we don't want to lose, but that doesn't automatically mean putting them on the 40 man roster. Guys in Single-A aren't going to get picked up etc...so the risk of losing them is incredibly low and protecting them is not necessary. It is better to leave a player off the 40 man versus having to remove them later on when we need the space.

 

Howell will certainly get protected and maybe they protect Weston Wilson if they believe he will be a big part of infield depth if/when injuries happen. Weston Wilson is actually a guy that is a popular pick up in these drafts. MLB ready and versatile. A team could certainly pick him up and put him on their bench.

[CheezWizHed]

Seems like rule 5 drafting has really dropped off in recent years too. Used to be that nearly everyone took one player and some took two. Lately, it seems more like a dozen or so players drafted. Or maybe just my perception since we used to sit higher in the ranking in the draft?

[MrTPlush]

Seems like rule 5 drafting has really dropped off in recent years too. Used to be that nearly everyone took one player and some took two. Lately, it seems more like a dozen or so players drafted. Or maybe just my perception since we used to sit higher in the ranking in the draft?

 

2011 - 12

2015 - 16

2019 - 11

 

I think it is mostly perception, I checked some other years and it is around the same. Not because we don't draft as high, but because competing teams just don't have the space or time to mess around with these kind of players. I don't think it is a coincidence we drafted a player in 2015/2016 and then haven't drafted one since. The only player we would consider drafting is one that is MLB ready and they legitimately can be counted on to hopefully be a positive player all year. As you can imagine those kind of players usually aren't available or it is pretty hard to evaluate and know who they are.

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, it is probably more on how often we have drafted. We had a long string of taking someone nearly every year:

- 1999, 2001 (2), 2002 (2), 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010

 

Then it became much more sporadic:

- 2013 (the infamous Wei-Chung Wang), 2015(2), and 2016 (traded)