Upcoming Free Agents

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs released their Top 50 Free Agents article today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/

 

Bryant at 6/150 or 8/200 is prolly a little too rich for Mark A's blood, but hopefully there's enough in the couch cushions for a Schwarber or Castellanos in that 60 million-ish range. Marte & Taylor are other guys in that neighborhood that I could see Stearns & company getting in on if they are given that kind of room in the budget.

[StearnsFTW]

Marte seems very Stearns-ish. And would be a welcome addition.

[Jopal78]

FanGraphs released their Top 50 Free Agents article today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/

 

Bryant at 6/150 or 8/200 is prolly a little too rich for Mark A's blood, but hopefully there's enough in the couch cushions for a Schwarber or Castellanos in that 60 million-ish range. Marte & Taylor are other guys in that neighborhood that I could see Stearns & company getting in on if they are given that kind of room in the budget.

 

Maybe Eduardo Escobar (switch hitter to split time at 1B and 3B on a bargain contract ) or a Zack Greinke-type veteran starter (on a short term contract) to soak up innings with the young arms the Brewers have there.

 

The problem with Castellanos and Schwarber is the Brewers place high value on defense and neither of those players is known as being an average defender. Secondly, there is a lot of redundancy with those players. Schwarber a lefty slugger best suited at 1B due to his defensive limitations sounds just like Rowdy Tellez, and to a lesser extent Dan Vogelbach.

 

As for Castellanos, they Brewers already have four outfielders who (absent a trade) will be on the roster next year and outfield is one of the few areas where they have organizational depth. Without even getting into the money (which if Castellanos ends up settling for 4 yrs/60 million as you suggest he will have had a bad offseason as he left at least 34 million dollars on the table with the Reds when he opted out), the Brewers are probably looking for a short term bargain in the OF to split time with what they currently have on the roster than a flexibility eroding high price piece.

[nate82]

 

Maybe Eduardo Escobar (switch hitter to split time at 1B and 3B on a bargain contract ) or a Zack Greinke-type veteran starter (on a short term contract) to soak up innings with the young arms the Brewers have there.

 

The problem with Castellanos and Schwarber is the Brewers place high value on defense and neither of those players is known as being an average defender. Secondly, there is a lot of redundancy with those players. Schwarber a lefty slugger best suited at 1B due to his defensive limitations sounds just like Rowdy Tellez, and to a lesser extent Dan Vogelbach.

 

As for Castellanos, they Brewers already have four outfielders who (absent a trade) will be on the roster next year and outfield is one of the few areas where they have organizational depth. Without even getting into the money (which if Castellanos ends up settling for 4 yrs/60 million as you suggest he will have had a bad offseason as he left at least 34 million dollars on the table with the Reds when he opted out), the Brewers are probably looking for a short term bargain in the OF to split time with what they currently have on the roster than a flexibility eroding high price piece.

 

There is about a 90% chance that the DH is coming to the NL next season with the new CBA and that is where I believe Castellanos would be playing.

 

 

 

The Brewers have also looked at putting Hiura in the OF so I think the Brewers see OF as a spot that they are going to add to if they can. The Brewers are rather left handed heavy and are missing a right handed power bat. I wouldn't be surprised if they go out and find someone to fill that right handed power that the team is missing. Castellanos and Bryant fit that definition but I don't think they will be within the Brewers price range.

 

Instead I think Canha and Suzuki are probably more realistic options that the Brewers will go after and both could fill in at DH.

[sveumrules]

MLBTR also dropped their list today, which appears to be a little more bullish than the FanGraphs estimates...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html

 

Brewers only predicted as a destination for Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto & Nelson Cruz by the MLBTR writers who hazarded guesses.

[tmwiese55]

Not really relevant to us. But have some MLB network on talking about Correa. Apparently Correa was offered 5/160 which he'll obviously turn down. Talk seems to be that he won't end up in Hou as someone will outbid them. I'm just thinking why wouldn't Hous just keep him. He's only 27 so one of those rare prime age FAs. Maybe let him have the opt out option after 3-4 years or something if he wants that but why not just add on the 2-3 more years and keep him. They're a huge market that's been winning big time. They haven't spend on keeping Cole, Greinke is off this year. I think Altuve only has 2 years left, maybe 3 then his money is off. It just seems odd to me when big markets don't keep their own guys at this age. If he was 30-32, ok sure I see the issue and why you might walk away.

[Jopal78]

There is about a 90% chance that the DH is coming to the NL next season with the new CBA and that is where I believe Castellanos would be playing.

 

Therein lies the rub, maybe Castellanos signs before there is a new CBA agreement, maybe not. If he waits and the DH does come to the NL, the number of suitors (and hence his price) will go up.

[nate82]

MLBTR also dropped their list today, which appears to be a little more bullish than the FanGraphs estimates...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html

 

Brewers only predicted as a destination for Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto & Nelson Cruz by the MLBTR writers who hazarded guesses.

 

I think Conforto made sense before the Mets slapped a QO on him. I just don't see a team giving him a multi year deal and then losing a draft pick. With the season he had he was looking at a 1-year prove it type of deal.

[Eye Black]

Jim Bowden wrote this articled for article for The Athletic: Top 25 MLB free agents of 2021-22: Jim Bowden’s rankings, contract predictions and best team fits for a stacked class. He has Suzuki ranked as his 14th best free agent. Based on looking at some of his other predictions, I think Bowden tends to be too high with his estimates for likely total dollar values.

 

Out of the 25 free agents listed, the only one he listed as a “Best Fit” for the Brewers was Brandon Belt, who was ranked his #25 best free agent, and for whom he predicted a 4 year, $79 million contract.

[Eye Black]

MLBTR also dropped their list today, which appears to be a little more bullish than the FanGraphs estimates...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html

 

Brewers only predicted as a destination for Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto & Nelson Cruz by the MLBTR writers who hazarded guesses.

 

I think Conforto made sense before the Mets slapped a QO on him. I just don't see a team giving him a multi year deal and then losing a draft pick. With the season he had he was looking at a 1-year prove it type of deal.

Jim Bowden predicted a 5 year, $90 million deal for Michael Conforto which I think is both too many years and dollars for what Conforto should reasonably expect in free agency coming off such a rough year.

[sveumrules]

Jim Bowden wrote this articled for article for The Athletic: Top 25 MLB free agents of 2021-22: Jim Bowden’s rankings, contract predictions and best team fits for a stacked class. He has Suzuki ranked as his 14th best free agent. Based on looking at some of his other predictions, I think Bowden tends to be too high with his estimates for likely total dollar values.

 

Out of the 25 free agents listed, the only one he listed as a “Best Fit” for the Brewers was Brandon Belt, who was ranked his #25 best free agent, and for whom he predicted a 4 year, $79 million contract.

 

MLB Player Agents out here dreaming Bowden was still a GM.

 

MLBTR & FanGraphs both have Belt accepting the qualifying offer.

[Eye Black]

Michael Conforto is reportedly turning down the qualifying offer according to Jeff Passan (Link)…

 

New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto will decline the qualifying offer and head to free agency, sources familiar with the situation tell ESPN.

[nate82]

Michael Conforto is reportedly turning down the qualifying offer according to Jeff Passan (Link)…

 

New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto will decline the qualifying offer and head to free agency, sources familiar with the situation tell ESPN.

 

That is a mistake by Conforto, I don't see how he is going to get more than a 1 or 2-year deal after the season he had. Some of it was from COVID and a hamstring injury but I just don't see how he is going to get a multi year deal. The only thing I can think of is that he wants to get out of the Mets organization. I don't see him topping the QO and he is probably looking at a 1-year $10-15m contract which is far less than the QO. Some teams are going to shy away from him because of the draft pick compensation that is tied to him so he may even struggle to find the $10-15m prove it type of offer.

[JosephC]

Does anyone know what the biggest contract the Brewers have ever given a free agent from outside the organization? I'm not talking about a yearly average, I'm talking about the total amount of dollars over the length of the deal. I must be missing a player or two, but I cannot think of a deal that would be bigger than the 42 million that went to Jeff Suppan. Who am I missing?

[sveumrules]

Does anyone know what the biggest contract the Brewers have ever given a free agent from outside the organization? I'm not talking about a yearly average, I'm talking about the total amount of dollars over the length of the deal. I must be missing a player or two, but I cannot think of a deal that would be bigger than the 42 million that went to Jeff Suppan. Who am I missing?

 

Cain at 5/80.

Garza at 4/50.

ARam at 3/36.

Lohse at 3/33.

Wolf at 3/30.

[JosephC]

Does anyone know what the biggest contract the Brewers have ever given a free agent from outside the organization? I'm not talking about a yearly average, I'm talking about the total amount of dollars over the length of the deal. I must be missing a player or two, but I cannot think of a deal that would be bigger than the 42 million that went to Jeff Suppan. Who am I missing?

 

Cain at 5/80.

Garza at 4/50.

ARam at 3/36.

Lohse at 3/33.

Wolf at 3/30.

 

LOL, Cain....I can't figure out how I could miss that one since he's been my favorite Brewer the last few years. What the hell? Put me down for BrewerFan dumbest post of the year for 2021.

[monty57]

Does anyone know what the biggest contract the Brewers have ever given a free agent from outside the organization? I'm not talking about a yearly average, I'm talking about the total amount of dollars over the length of the deal. I must be missing a player or two, but I cannot think of a deal that would be bigger than the 42 million that went to Jeff Suppan. Who am I missing?

 

Cain at 5/80.

Garza at 4/50.

ARam at 3/36.

Lohse at 3/33.

Wolf at 3/30.

 

That our biggest signings ever are in the $10-$16M AAV, and we have Yelich on the books for seven more years, and we have a lot of arby raises are all reasons why I think that signing someone like Castellanos is a pipe dream.

 

However, if we have realized a new revenue stream and can add another big contract, I'd pay a little extra and go for Bryant at 6/$160 ($26.67 AAV) over Castellanos at 5/$112 ($22.40 AAV). More realistically, I think our big signing would top out at someone like Chris Taylor (4/$64) or Rizzo (3/$45). Suzuki would be interesting at 5/$55 (plus an estimated $10.125M posting fee), and it's interesting that they liken him to Avi Garcia, who they predict will sign for 3/$36.

 

Of course, if we have that "surprise new revenue," I may want to extend some of our arby guys, and any FA contract over 2-3 years could hurt our attempts to do that.

 

All speculating aside, I am very interested in how the Brewers will approach this offseason, which could be one of the more important offseasons in team history. I really hope the CBA negotiations don't drag out too long.

[monty57]

MLBTR also dropped their list today, which appears to be a little more bullish than the FanGraphs estimates...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html

 

Brewers only predicted as a destination for Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto & Nelson Cruz by the MLBTR writers who hazarded guesses.

 

I think Conforto made sense before the Mets slapped a QO on him. I just don't see a team giving him a multi year deal and then losing a draft pick. With the season he had he was looking at a 1-year prove it type of deal.

 

Could he be this year's "Grandal/Moose" signing? If the Brewers have a little extra money in '22, but are worried about the arby raises going forward, a one-year deal makes a ton of sense. Just have to decide if one year of Conforto is worth giving up a future draft pick. If he's the .900 OPS bat in the middle of the lineup, then he's worth it. If he's the 2021 version of himself, it would be a big mistake.

 

Still, it's less risky than signing a $100M+ multi-year deal, or "trading the farm" for someone. I could see the Brewers targeting Conforto as our "big bat" pickup.

[nate82]

 

Could he be this year's "Grandal/Moose" signing? If the Brewers have a little extra money in '22, but are worried about the arby raises going forward, a one-year deal makes a ton of sense. Just have to decide if one year of Conforto is worth giving up a future draft pick. If he's the .900 OPS bat in the middle of the lineup, then he's worth it. If he's the 2021 version of himself, it would be a big mistake.

 

Still, it's less risky than signing a $100M+ multi-year deal, or "trading the farm" for someone. I could see the Brewers targeting Conforto as our "big bat" pickup.

 

Yes he could be but I think as you pointed out carries a far higher risk than either Grandal or Moose did of not being effective.

 

I would be happy with either a Conforto or Seiya Suzuki signing. I would prefer Suzuki but if our biggest pick up is Conforto I would be fine with that.

[brewers888]

The Brewers really need a right handed bat so no thanks on Conforto.

[umphrey]

Count me in on Conforto if the QO suppresses his value. I’ll give up a draft pick for this win now team in a heartbeat. Would be better than trading a good prospect or sitting out on FA.

[DR28]

I'm coming around on Canha in RF.

 

Dude has power and real good at getting on base.

[brewerfan82]

I'm coming around on Canha in RF.

 

Dude has power and real good at getting on base.

I like Canha. He always seems to sneak onto my fantasy team at some point, seems very undervalued for what he brings to the table. He's got quite a bit of time at all the outfield spots, but also has played a bit at first base. He'd be a great guy to grab early in the offseason so Stearns/Arnold have some extra positional flexibility in their annual late offseason bargain grabs.

[brewerfan82]

Speaking of "late offseason" moves, here's the annual reminder not to get too antsy when nothing big has happened by the time 2022 rolls around. Not all of these ended up being winners (*cough* JBJ *cough*), but a lot of the offseason excitement with this team often comes later on (and also as we see every single offseason, the "offseason winner" often doesn't translate to regular season success):

 

3/08/21 - Brewers Sign JBJ (I know it didn't turn out well, but it was a surprise late deal for a decent chunk of money)

2/22/21 - Brewers Re-sign Brett Anderson

2/18/21 - Brewers Sign Brad Boxberger

2/5/21 - Brewers Sign Kolten Wong

 

3/6/20 - Brewers Sign Christian Yelich to Mega Extension (jury's still out on this one...)

1/10/20 - Brewers Sign Jedd Gyorko

12/17/19 - Brewers Sign Avisail Garcia

12/13/19 - Brewers Sign Brett Anderson

12/05/19 - Brewers Trade For Omar Narvaez

 

2/19/19 - Brewers Sign Mike Moustakas

1/14/19 - Brewers Sign Yasmani Grandal

 

1/26/18 - Brewers Sign Lorenzo Cain

1/25/18 - Brewers Trade For Christian Yelich

 

All that said, COME ON GUYS WHAT'S TAKING SO LONG!?

[titletownking]

Speaking of "late offseason" moves, here's the annual reminder not to get too antsy when nothing big has happened by the time 2022 rolls around. Not all of these ended up being winners (*cough* JBJ *cough*), but a lot of the offseason excitement with this team often comes later on (and also as we see every single offseason, the "offseason winner" often doesn't translate to regular season success):

 

3/08/21 - Brewers Sign JBJ (I know it didn't turn out well, but it was a surprise late deal for a decent chunk of money)

2/22/21 - Brewers Re-sign Brett Anderson

2/18/21 - Brewers Sign Brad Boxberger

2/5/21 - Brewers Sign Kolten Wong

 

3/6/20 - Brewers Sign Christian Yelich to Mega Extension (jury's still out on this one...)

1/10/20 - Brewers Sign Jedd Gyorko

12/17/19 - Brewers Sign Avisail Garcia

12/13/19 - Brewers Sign Brett Anderson

12/05/19 - Brewers Trade For Omar Narvaez

 

2/19/19 - Brewers Sign Mike Moustakas

1/14/19 - Brewers Sign Yasmani Grandal

 

1/26/18 - Brewers Sign Lorenzo Cain

1/25/18 - Brewers Trade For Christian Yelich

 

All that said, COME ON GUYS WHAT'S TAKING SO LONG!?

 

This is all great and what not but there wasn’t a strike looming in the all of those years. Seems like a lot of activity going on early in the offseason. Also the Braves signing Pina makes me incredibly sad. Mostly because of how much I hate the Braves and also because Manny is an incredible teammate.