Matt Olson

[KCBrewerfan34]

Adding a 1B/DH bat shouldn't be anything crazy. I'm not trusting Huira in the least. The ask on Olson is supposedly totally outrageous so there's that .

[TURBO]

Not a chance we are in on Olson, and Hiura is probably going to get another shot at regular playing time via the DH.

 

I hope is is ready! Man can we use the old Hiura!

[KCBrewerfan34]

Not a chance we are in on Olson, and Hiura is probably going to get another shot at regular playing time via the DH.

 

I hope is is ready! Man can we use the old Hiura!

 

 

I'm not sure there ever was an "old Hiura". Didn't he pile up alot of his early stats against Pittsburgh. Once the Pitt staff got word that he can't hit a fastball over 95 MPH because of his stupid leg kick, it was curtains for KH.

[markedman5]

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not really sure why the Braves did this instead of going for the feel-good move and retaining Freeman, but okay.

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Not really sure why the Braves did this instead of going for the feel-good move and retaining Freeman, but okay.

Cheaper per year for the Braves to trade for Olson over retaining Freeman.  They may have also gotten word that Freeman will be signing with the Dodgers or that the Dodgers offer to Freeman is more than what they could counter.  

[StearnsFTW]

Prospects #1, #3, #11 & #13 in a meh Braves system.

 

Equivalent offer from the Brewers:

Mitchell, Turang, Zamora, Feliciano.

 

Obviously not apples to apples, but I think I probably would've done that.  Not sure how anyone else feels (or the A's more importantly).

 

[DR28]

1 minute ago, StearnsFTW said:

Prospects #1, #3, #11 & #13 in a meh Braves system.

 

Equivalent offer from the Brewers:

Mitchell, Turang, Zamora, Feliciano.

 

Obviously not apples to apples, but I think I probably would've done that.  Not sure how anyone else feels (or the A's more importantly).

 

I would have definitely done that... We would still have Frelick, Ashby, Wiemer, Small, etc.

[wibadgers23]

11 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Prospects #1, #3, #11 & #13 in a meh Braves system.

 

Equivalent offer from the Brewers:

Mitchell, Turang, Zamora, Feliciano.

 

Obviously not apples to apples, but I think I probably would've done that.  Not sure how anyone else feels (or the A's more importantly).

 

I would have done that trade in a heartbeat. Olson would have looked really nice in our lineup. Oh well.

[JosephC]

IMO, that is a crazy price paid by the Braves for 2 years of a player.  Pache's stock has really fallen, looking at Fangraphs and MLB.com, both he and Langeliers sit at approximately 70 on the top 100 prospects list.  Let's do the MLB.com list and put Langeliers at 68 and Pache at 69.  On the chart, that's 28.8 and 28.3 million in prospect surplus value respectively.  Cusick is a 2021 1st rounder (24th), a solid top 10 organizational prospect and would probably ranks about #200 on a top 300 list (if they went down that far)...10.6 million in surplus value.  MLB.com has Estes at #14 in the A's system...that's solid role-player prospect territory...5.5 million in surplus value.  Total = 73.2 million in surplus value.

Olson is estimated to make 12 million this year and let's guess 16 million for the following season.  So the 73.2 million + 28 million = 101.2 million....and if you go 1 WAR = 9 million...he has to be good for 11.2 WAR over the next two seasons to make it a break-even.

Since 2020 was only 37% of a season....2019-2021 bWAR = 11.6, 2019-2021 fWAR = 9.7.....average = 10.65 / 2.37 seasons = 4.5 WAR.  So by my calculations the Braves paid a price of a 5.6 annual WAR player and based on the last three years they got a 4.5 annual WAR player back.

I love Olson, thought he was the perfect fit for the Brewers and would have been willing to overpay on the trade market to get him.  But what the Braves paid IMO does not make sense numbers wise and I wouldn't have tried to outbid them when the price-tag got up in this region.

[JosephC]

One more thing, I'd have the #1, #3, #11 and #13 prospects in the Brewer's system having a prospect surplus value of 51.3 million...so that wouldn't really be a competitive offer to what the Braves put up unless the A's happen to like the Brewer's prospects much more than the "expert" opinions out there...which is always a real possibility.

[Eye Black]

8 minutes ago, JosephC said:

IMO, that is a crazy price paid by the Braves for 2 years of a player. 

My guess is the Braves are fairly confident they can sign Olson, an Atlanta area native, to a long term deal. Sort of similar to the Cardinals M.O. in the past. 

[sveumrules]

Olson put up 5.8 WAR with a 153 OPS+ last year at age 27 vs a 127 OPS+ & about 4 WAR/140 games through age 26.

Also trimmed his K rate from 26.1% through 2020 to 16.8% in 2021, which is pretty nuts in this day & age.

At his age, with what appears to be an underlying approach change backing up his increased production I think 11 WAR is a pretty safe bet over the next two years. 
 

 

[markedman5]

18 hours ago, Eye Black said:

My guess is the Braves are fairly confident they can sign Olson, an Atlanta area native, to a long term deal. Sort of similar to the Cardinals M.O. in the past. 

They sure were……..