Matt Olson

[StearnsFTW]

I know this is kind of weird timing, but I was just reading an MLBTR chat that mentioned how the A's will likely have to break up the team because of their huge arbitration class which includes Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, Manaea and 5 or 6 others.

 

I've had my eye on Olson for a few years now, kind of hoping in a way that the Brewers could somehow get their hands on him.

 

He has 3 years of arby left.

 

Edit: Actually it's 2 years, thanks Reilly.

 

Just hypothetically wondering what a package for Olson would look like. I'm sure it would be painful, but man would he slot nicely into this lineup. He is having a great season, had a great season in 2019 but sputtered in 2020 (which, personally, I kind of throw out).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/olsonma02.shtml

 

I'm thinking something like Turang+Ashby or Small+Feliciano? That feels light. I don't know if we could get it done without Mitchell.

 

What do you guys think?

Edited August 18, 2021 by StearnsFTW

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We currently have a 26-year-old 1B with a 1.014 OPS and multiple years of cheap control. Not saying that Rowdy Tellez is definitely the cure to the team's longtime 1B issues, but it is certainly worth seeing what we have in him before giving up the farm for someone like Olson.

[reillymcshane]

I know this is kind of weird timing, but I was just reading an MLBTR chat that mentioned how the A's will likely have to break up the team because of their huge arbitration class which includes Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, Manaea and 5 or 6 others.

 

I've had my eye on Olson for a few years now, kind of hoping in a way that the Brewers could somehow get their hands on him.

 

He has 3 years of arby left.

 

Just hypothetically wondering what a package for Olson would look like. I'm sure it would be painful, but man would he slot nicely into this lineup. He is having a great season, had a great season in 2019 but sputtered in 2020 (which, personally, I kind of throw out).

 

I'm thinking something like Turang+Ashby or Small+Feliciano? That feels light. I don't know if we could get it done without Mitchell.

 

What do you guys think?

To clarify, Olson has two years of Arby remaining after this season.

 

But even two years of Olson is - as you point out - not going to be cheap. He's an excellent player. You would likely have to build something around Mitchell - is my guess.

 

I guess waiting to see how Rowdy does the rest of the season is probably the next step before making a trade like this.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, I agree on the Tellez part. I also think we're going to have a DH next year.

 

I don't have a ton of faith in Rowdy tbh, but if he continues to hit like this, this thread is moot.

 

And, yes, 2 years, will edit. My bad.

[rickh150]

Yeah, I agree on the Tellez part. I also think we're going to have a DH next year.

 

I don't have a ton of faith in Rowdy tbh, but if he continues to hit like this, this thread is moot.

 

And, yes, 2 years, will edit. My bad.

 

I’m all for a DH for the SP and then let RP/pinch hitters bat after SP is removed. I think that would be the ultimate compromise that protects 200 million arms yet keeps a semblance of the NL game.

[clancyphile]

I'm a NO on Olson. Costs too much for too little control, both in terms of money and prospects.

 

Now, Lou Trivino and Tony Kemp would be a nice package to get from them.

 

Trivino could go 8th/9th with Devin Williams, moving Hader back to the multi-inning fireman role he filled so well, and Kemp provides a decent OBP and some versatility for the bench while batting left-handed.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm a NO on Olson. Costs too much for too little control, both in terms of money and prospects.

 

Now, Lou Trivino and Tony Kemp would be a nice package to get from them.

 

Trivino could go 8th/9th with Devin Williams, moving Hader back to the multi-inning fireman role he filled so well, and Kemp provides a decent OBP and some versatility for the bench while batting left-handed.

 

Sure, why go out and get a Corvette when you can park a couple perfectly fine used Chevy Malibus in the garage?

[adambr2]

Unless his performance goes completely south at some point, Hader is our closer for as long as he is a Brewer. It isn't worth debating changing his role at this point because it isn't happening.

 

I'd be all about Olson. 2 years is enough control to be worth a decent investment. Rowdy has had some really nice moments, but let's be honest, it's been 83 ABs. We still don't know if he is our answer at 1B or not. I'll take the established top 5 player at his position. Not that I'm looking to get rid of Rowdy. If the DH ends up in the NL there's plenty of opportunity to get him ABs too if he keeps up his hitting.

[sveumrules]

Hader is having his best season ever this year, not sure why anyone would be looking to change his usage to a role where he would have to put more stress on his arm in order to have less of an impact on winning games...

 

2018: 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +3.30 WPA

2019: 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | +3.15 WPA

2021: 43 IP | 40 ERA- | 42 FIP- | 2.3 rWAR | 2.0 fWAR | +3.94 WPA

[clancyphile]

Hader is having his best season ever this year, not sure why anyone would be looking to change his usage to a role where he would have to put more stress on his arm in order to have less of an impact on winning games...

 

2018: 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +3.30 WPA

2019: 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | +3.15 WPA

2021: 43 IP | 40 ERA- | 42 FIP- | 2.3 rWAR | 2.0 fWAR | +3.94 WPA

 

You still have to get to the ninth with a lead.

 

Hader's value in a given game evaporates if the one-run lead you want to save him for the ninth evaporates because Boxberger/Sanchez/etc. got lit up in the sixth trying to clean up a jam the starter got in.

 

In that case, you put Hader in to get to the eighth, and you have conventional 8th/9th inning guys take those two.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hader is having his best season ever this year, not sure why anyone would be looking to change his usage to a role where he would have to put more stress on his arm in order to have less of an impact on winning games...

 

2018: 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | +3.30 WPA

2019: 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | +3.15 WPA

2021: 43 IP | 40 ERA- | 42 FIP- | 2.3 rWAR | 2.0 fWAR | +3.94 WPA

 

You still have to get to the ninth with a lead.

 

Hader's value in a given game evaporates if the one-run lead you want to save him for the ninth evaporates because Boxberger/Sanchez/etc. got lit up in the sixth trying to clean up a jam the starter got in.

 

In that case, you put Hader in to get to the eighth, and you have conventional 8th/9th inning guys take those two.

 

Josh Hader has said, many times now, that he feels more comfortable in the closer role, and he would much prefer to stay in that role, rather than go back to his multi-inning role. I'm not real sure what else needs to be said. Hader is this team's closer, and he's damn good at it. It is long past time for those few fans who are hanging on to the idea of 2017 Hader to wake up and smell the roses.

[PeaveyFury]

Hader's value in a given game evaporates if the one-run lead you want to save him for the ninth evaporates because Boxberger/Sanchez/etc. got lit up in the sixth trying to clean up a jam the starter got in..

 

How often has that happened, though? The Brewers are winning games because their bullpen is performing well OUTSIDE of just Hader. Sanchez and Boxberger have been exactly what you want from the middle-inning guys.

[StearnsFTW]

Unless his performance goes completely south at some point, Hader is our closer for as long as he is a Brewer. It isn't worth debating changing his role at this point because it isn't happening.

 

I'd be all about Olson. 2 years is enough control to be worth a decent investment. Rowdy has had some really nice moments, but let's be honest, it's been 83 ABs. We still don't know if he is our answer at 1B or not. I'll take the established top 5 player at his position. Not that I'm looking to get rid of Rowdy. If the DH ends up in the NL there's plenty of opportunity to get him ABs too if he keeps up his hitting.

 

You could theoretically include Tellez in a deal for Olson if Tellez keeps hitting. Tellez' control would be enticing to Oakland, but of course that's enticing to us too haha. I'd love to have them both.

[sveumrules]

You still have to get to the ninth with a lead.

 

That hasn't been an issue. This is the best team in Brewers history as of today's date...

 

2021: 74-47

2011: 74-52

2008: 72-55

1982: 69-50

2018: 69-57

 

No need to fix what isn't broken & has been working exceptionally well.

 

That Hader has already surpassed his WPA from 2018-19 by a significant margin, with over a month of the season remaining, all while throwing notably fewer innings indicates to me that the current set up would be very difficult to improve upon.

[brewcrewdue80]

Too expensive. With the year hes having he must be looking at over 10Mil this upcoming Arb. ~11.6? my guess which heads to the 18-21Mil the last year. That year will be very expensive already for Mil with Arb players.

 

Tellez meanwhile has an adequate bat that may improve with more experience. He will possess the cheap player the team needs over these next 2 or 3 seasons while giving a better than Replacement level bat in return.

[clancyphile]

Too expensive. With the year hes having he must be looking at over 10Mil this upcoming Arb. ~11.6? my guess which heads to the 18-21Mil the last year. That year will be very expensive already for Mil with Arb players.

 

Tellez meanwhile has an adequate bat that may improve with more experience. He will possess the cheap player the team needs over these next 2 or 3 seasons while giving a better than Replacement level bat in return.

 

At which point, the Crew could very well have an option like Ernesto Martinez ready to step in.

[StearnsFTW]

Too expensive. With the year hes having he must be looking at over 10Mil this upcoming Arb. ~11.6? my guess which heads to the 18-21Mil the last year. That year will be very expensive already for Mil with Arb players.

 

Tellez meanwhile has an adequate bat that may improve with more experience. He will possess the cheap player the team needs over these next 2 or 3 seasons while giving a better than Replacement level bat in return.

 

I understand the point completely.

 

However, Olson's season this year is pretty equivalent to 2018 Yelich. I'm pretty eager to complete the 2022 lineup with a hitter like that.

 

I don't have any real faith in Tellez going forward.

[TURBO]

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers have "already begun investigating" a potential trade for Matt Olson.

 

Nathaniel Lowe had a solid first season with the Rangers and is under team control for several more years, but Olson would be a clear upgrade and give the lineup another jolt following the offseason additions of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Olson is a good bet to be traded post-lockout, with the Yankees and Braves also representing potential fits.

 

RELATED: Texas Rangers

SOURCE: Dallas Morning News

Feb 18, 2022, 9:31 AM ET

[monty57]

There is no doubt that Olson would make the team better, but I don't think we can afford him. Unless we include Burnes or Woodruff in the deal, we probably don't have the prospects to make the deal happen, and even if we did, we couldn't afford the arby increases for all of our guys who are going to get raises over the next few years.

 

If we were able to make a trade for Olson happen, it would necessitate trading some of our stars after this season is over. We may have to do that anyhow, but I don't see Stearns adding another expensive guy who's already in his arby years.

[umphrey]

I think Olson will get traded to a team wanting to extend him and I am sure no one thinks we can afford that cash

[Soupbone]

Olson to the Brewers is not happening as much as I would like to have that happen. Between prospect cost and salary cost it is just not something the Brewers will do. I know, they could if they wanted to "go" for it. They will figure out another way.

[JosephC]

I had little concern about the A's asking for the moon reports, because for a talent like him they will obviously be starting high in the asking price. But I am discouraged that Texas could be seriously interested, because they could easily outbid the Brewers.

[nate82]

I had little concern about the A's asking for the moon reports, because for a talent like him they will obviously be starting high in the asking price. But I am discouraged that Texas could be seriously interested, because they could easily outbid the Brewers.

 

I don't believe the Brewers and A's matchup prospect wise. The Brewers just don't have what the A's would want in an Olson trade. The Yankees could easily top anything the Brewers throw out there with just one prospect.

 

I just don't see a realistic scenario where the A's trade Olson to the Brewers.

[umphrey]

I had little concern about the A's asking for the moon reports, because for a talent like him they will obviously be starting high in the asking price. But I am discouraged that Texas could be seriously interested, because they could easily outbid the Brewers.

 

I don't believe the Brewers and A's matchup prospect wise. The Brewers just don't have what the A's would want in an Olson trade. The Yankees could easily top anything the Brewers throw out there with just one prospect.

 

I just don't see a realistic scenario where the A's trade Olson to the Brewers.

 

I've probably read similar comments before in this thread and I really just disagree.

 

The Yankees have Volpe (60FV, Fangraphs #12). He would be the Brewers #1 prospect, yes. I don't know if he's more valuable than the Brewers top 2, or top 3, or top 4, but it's somewhere in that range.

 

Further, I don't think the Yankees even would want to trade Volpe for Olson, since he may be more valuable and I think they want him in NY. I don't think the As would want a 1 for 1 trade either, since the low payroll teams usually want multiple guys back to fill multiple positions.

 

The Brewers have 2 guys with FV50, the Yankees have 4. The Brewers have 2 guys with FV45+, the Yankees again have 4. So it's really just a question of whether the Brewers are willing to trade 2-3 guys from their top 4, or do the Yankees want it more and will top it with 2-3 guys from their top 9 and a little more.

[monty57]

I had little concern about the A's asking for the moon reports, because for a talent like him they will obviously be starting high in the asking price. But I am discouraged that Texas could be seriously interested, because they could easily outbid the Brewers.

 

I don't believe the Brewers and A's matchup prospect wise. The Brewers just don't have what the A's would want in an Olson trade. The Yankees could easily top anything the Brewers throw out there with just one prospect.

 

I just don't see a realistic scenario where the A's trade Olson to the Brewers.

 

I've probably read similar comments before in this thread and I really just disagree.

 

The Yankees have Volpe (60FV, Fangraphs #12). He would be the Brewers #1 prospect, yes. I don't know if he's more valuable than the Brewers top 2, or top 3, or top 4, but it's somewhere in that range.

 

Further, I don't think the Yankees even would want to trade Volpe for Olson, since he may be more valuable and I think they want him in NY. I don't think the As would want a 1 for 1 trade either, since the low payroll teams usually want multiple guys back to fill multiple positions.

 

The Brewers have 2 guys with FV50, the Yankees have 4. The Brewers have 2 guys with FV45+, the Yankees again have 4. So it's really just a question of whether the Brewers are willing to trade 2-3 guys from their top 4, or do the Yankees want it more and will top it with 2-3 guys from their top 9 and a little more.

 

The Brewers could put something together, it would just take at least three of Ashby, Mitchell, Frelick, and Turang. That would leave the farm all but devoid of MLB talent, and they wouldn't be able to afford all of their arbitration raises probably as soon as next year, but certainly in two years.

 

Therefore, they would be trading away all of their prospects for one year to go "all in," and then they would need to start selling off their expensive arby guys (Olson, Adames, Woodruff, Burnes, etc) after the "all in" year.

 

There are teams that would do this, it just isn't what Attanasio and Stearns have been preaching since Stearns was hired.