Is Christian Yelich the next Chris Davis?

[sveumrules]

The math isn't quite perfect since 2018-19 and 2020-21 each have different denominators in terms of plate appearances & distribution of pitches within each of the nine zones, but just to delve a little deeper on how Yelich's swing decisions and production have changed, here is a rough average of swing percentage and wOBA for all nine of the zones for Christian's last two years compared to his first two years...

 

Low / Inside

 

2018-19 Swing%: 65.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 51.5% (-14%)

2018-19 wOBA: .412 | 2021-21 wOBA: .248 (-.156)

 

Low / Middle

 

2018-19 Swing%: 61.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 62% (+0.5%)

2018-19 wOBA: .500 | 2020-21 wOBA: .250 (-.250)

 

Low / Outside

 

2018-19 Swing%: 53.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 47.5% (-6%)

2018-19 wOBA: .266 | 2020-21 wOBA: .289 (+.023)

 

Middle / Inside

 

2018-19 Swing%: 75.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 66% (-9.5%)

2018-19 wOBA: .415 | 2020-21 wOBA: .394 (-.021)

 

Middle / Middle

 

2018-19 Swing%: 81% | 2020-21 Swing% 72% (-9%)

2018-19 wOBA: .637 | 2020-21 wOBA: .374 (-.264)

 

Middle / Outside

 

2018-19 Swing%: 67% | 2020-21 Swing%: 58% (-9%)

2018-19 wOBA: .582 | 2020-21 wOBA: .302 (-.280)

 

High / Inside

 

2018-19 Swing%: 71.5% | 2020-21 Swing% 54.5% (-17%)

2018-19 wOBA: .313 | 2020-21 wOBA: .251 (-.062)

 

High / Middle

 

2018-19 Swing%: 75.5% | 2020-21 Swing% 76% (+0.5%)

2018-19 wOBA: .467 | 2020-21 wOBA: .448 (-.019)

 

High / Outside

 

2018-19 Swing%: 60.5% | 2020-21 Swing%: 57% (-3.5%)

2018-19 wOBA: .411 | 2020-21 wOBA: .339 (-.072)

 

Significant drop in swing rate = High / Inside, Low / Inside, Middle / Inside, Middle / Middle and Middle / Outside

 

Significant drop in wOBA = Middle / Outside, Middle / Middle, Low / Middle and Low / Inside

 

Pretty much the only locations that have seen minimal change in both swing rate & results are High / Middle and to a lesser extent Low / Outside.

[roadcrew3]

He hasn't been the same player since he shattered his knee in 2019. Is it just a coincidence? I don't know but I'm guessing it's a combination of the knee, back and just not feeling comfortable at the plate in general.

 

Can we stop with the knee cap as being a proximate cause of Yelich's slump? It was a fracture of the knee cap. Nothing was shattered. He didn't even need surgical intervention or any serious medical treatment outside a knee immobilizer. More importantly, Yelich is 4th on the Brewers in sprint speed behind Garcia, Cain and Taylor. If his fractured knee cap was effecting him at the plate, you could bet that it would also impact his sprint speed.

 

No - not when the mental component of that injury occurring while swinging in the batter's box is probably moreso a culprit to Yelich's change in approach than anything else. Also, sprint speed isn't affected by a healed broken bone. That injury occurred on a slider that started middle of the plate and broke way inside from a RHP - when you look at Yelich's lower swing % and probably more importantly the dramatic decrease in damage he's done with pitches middle-in since this injury, it's not hard to put 2 and 2 together why Yelich doesn't seem to want to attack those pitches by getting the bat out in front and hit them with authority to right field.

 

Every player coming off an injury likely has some mental hurdles to jump in order to regain confidence in the injured area and trust that you aren't going to reinjure it. I had torn my ACL playing basketball and it took me abut 2 years to be comfortable again and not think about the knee every time I played. I play basketball in an old man league maybe once a week...Yelich is a professional athlete who is working with trainers and swinging a bat on a daily basis. I don't doubt that Yelich might have dealt with these mental side effects...and if he did, it likely was resolved during Spring Training 2020. He has taken so many swings since his injury there is just no way it still is impacting him...his back on the other hand is a more plausible factor

[clancyphile]

No - not when the mental component of that injury occurring while swinging in the batter's box is probably moreso a culprit to Yelich's change in approach than anything else. Also, sprint speed isn't affected by a healed broken bone. That injury occurred on a slider that started middle of the plate and broke way inside from a RHP - when you look at Yelich's lower swing % and probably more importantly the dramatic decrease in damage he's done with pitches middle-in since this injury, it's not hard to put 2 and 2 together why Yelich doesn't seem to want to attack those pitches by getting the bat out in front and hit them with authority to right field.

 

This is a good point.

 

The Crew needs to get Yelich with a good sports psychologist, they need to figure out if the back problems need some sort of medical intervention, AND they need to have him work on his swing mechanics.

 

It isn't all one thing, it's likely a mix of things.

 

That is the biggest priority of the 2021-2022 offseason.

[edfunderburk]

As of today … it appears the answer to the question in this thread is a resounding - NO!

 

So excited to see Yelich hitting the ball so well … not just today, but over the last few games.

 

The grand slam was absolutely crushed.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's looked more like himself the last 10 days or so prior to last night. He's been more aggressive and less defensive at the plate. The bunt hit in St. Louis ironically further freed him up mentally. He's taking a few less walks and getting more hits. I think that's a good thing.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Not sure if anyone brought this up ye but

 

Yelich: .723 OPS

Brinson: .822 OPS

 

After yesterday's games less than 1 week from this post, I believe:

 

Yelich: .758 OPS

Brinson: .770 OPS

 

I hope Brinson heats back up again...because it sure seems like Yelich is headed towards the low-mid .800s a few weeks from now despite spending most of this year around .700. That's not just due to yesterday's game either - he has been able to put better swings on the ball with extended playing time staying in the lineup, improved timing and pulling the ball to right center/right field with authority again.

[adambr2]

Yelich was awesome yesterday, but the concerns over him didn't start after one bad day and they aren't over after one great day.

 

If he can have a nice consistent stretch of play where he's starting to swing with a little more power, then I'll be pretty excited, especially with playoff baseball happening soon.

[jjfanec]

Not sure if anyone brought this up ye but

 

Yelich: .723 OPS

Brinson: .822 OPS

 

After yesterday's games less than 1 week from this post, I believe:

 

Yelich: .758 OPS

Brinson: .770 OPS

 

I hope Brinson heats back up again...because it sure seems like Yelich is headed towards the low-mid .800s a few weeks from now despite spending most of this year around .700. That's not just due to yesterday's game either - he has been able to put better swings on the ball with extended playing time staying in the lineup, improved timing and pulling the ball to right center/right field with authority again.

 

Had not paid much attention to Bronson because I don't follow the Marlins. Now they are playing the Reds and he has been brutal this series. So many men left on base and is in a 2 for 22 slump. Come on Lewis at least you could have stayed got for this series

[Fear The Chorizo]

Not sure if anyone brought this up ye but

 

Yelich: .723 OPS

Brinson: .822 OPS

 

As of Aug 31:

 

Yelich: .771 OPS

Brinson: .716 OPS