Is Christian Yelich the next Chris Davis?

[JohnBriggs12]

I was at Wrigley yesterday. Yelich just missed one that he lifted in the air to left center that was carried to the track by the wind. He looked more comfortable and aggressive at the plate taking good cuts in every AB. I think he's going to break out a bit in the next few weeks, and drive a few out of the park.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's no surprise to me that his best month offensively thus far this season was June (0.844 OPS - not MVP caliber but solid) - June was probably the one month were Yelich didn't miss games due to injury or COVID this year. Yelich got off to a solid start post ASB as well, then likely caught COVID and has been slow to get back into the swing of things.

 

Extrapolate his June production across the full season and he's a ~25HR corner OF despite hitting well below his career batting average with an OBP over 0.400 - not all world but solid.

 

Don't get me wrong, it would be awesome seeing him go full 2018-2019 video game mode at the plate for a few weeks to calm everyone's nerves that we'll get nothing from Yelich for the rest of his time in Milwaukee....while that would be a big surprise given his recent production, I do think him getting consistent ABs playing everyday is the key to him getting back on track as a productive middle of the order bat in this lineup.

[edfunderburk]

Extrapolate his June production across the full season and he's a ~25HR corner OF despite hitting well below his career batting average with an OBP over 0.400 - not all world but solid.

 

I don’t believe Yelich is “solid” enough to warrant his current contract

 

He is not anywhere close to who he once was … whether injury or cheating or whatever

 

Unfortunately, his contract extends several more years - a contract that prevents Milwaukee from using that $ elsewhere during the offseason

[jjfanec]

What proof at all is there that Yelich was cheating? The Darvish stuff and the one video that showed nothing? Seems like a huge stretch. I would say his knee injury and back problems seem way more likely causes for his steep regression.

[sveumrules]

Right, the current version of Yelich would not be worth the contract extension that starts next year & runs through 2028.

 

But just because he has only put up a 103 OPS+ over 543 PAs between 2020-21 doesn't mean he is doomed to repeat those results for the next seven plus years. A lot can change.

 

Take Joey Votto...

 

2007-18 | 6764 PAs | 155 OPS+

2019-20 | 831 PAs | 97 OPS+

2021 | 361 PAs | 140 OPS+

 

or Buster Posey...

 

2010-17 | 4243 PAs | 136 OPS+

2018-19 | 893 PAs | 95 OPS+

2021 | 301 PAs | 145 OPS+

 

or even Brandon Belt...

 

2012-16 | 2168 PAs | 130 OPS+

2017-19 | 1,523 PAs | 106 OPS+

2020-21 | 408 PAs | 155 OPS+

 

All of them had cold stretches that were longer &/or worse than what Yelich is currently doing, and were still able to come back from it. Looking at Christian's career arc...

 

2013-17 | 2812 PAs | 121 OPS+

2018-19 | 1231 PAs | 171 OPS+

2020-21 | 543 PAs | 103 OPS+

 

...my best guess is that Yelich's production from 2022-28 will likely fall somewhere between the 121 OPS+ he posted as a Marlin & his 133 career mark. If he does that the contract will be fine.

[645]

Chris Davis was always a power hitter that strike out allot that never could Hit But he did have a really good career for what he was.

 

But it's totally unfair to Yelich for he'll find a way to rebound at some point.

[Pugger]

Absolutely! How can a guy go from league MVP and batting champ to hitting like a pitcher? I like the fact he can run well and get on base with walks but his hitting since he broke his kneecap has been woeful.

 

Yelich 2020-21: 218/365/386 (107 wRC+)

Average P 2021: 109/214/083 (-20 wRC+)

 

Since Yelich broke his knee cap his hitting has been 7% better than league average & 127% better than the average pitcher.

 

Perhaps comparing Yelich's hitting prowess to a pitcher was a tad extreme but he once was an elite hitter and he isn't right now. I understand players go thru slumps but this one is longer than usual.

[edfunderburk]

Right, the current version of Yelich would not be worth the contract extension that starts next year & runs through 2028.

 

But just because he has only put up a 103 OPS+ over 543 PAs between 2020-21 doesn't mean he is doomed to repeat those results for the next seven plus years. A lot can change.

 

Take Joey Votto...

 

2007-18 | 6764 PAs | 155 OPS+

2019-20 | 831 PAs | 97 OPS+

2021 | 361 PAs | 140 OPS+

 

or Buster Posey...

 

2010-17 | 4243 PAs | 136 OPS+

2018-19 | 893 PAs | 95 OPS+

2021 | 301 PAs | 145 OPS+

 

or even Brandon Belt...

 

2012-16 | 2168 PAs | 130 OPS+

2017-19 | 1,523 PAs | 106 OPS+

2020-21 | 408 PAs | 155 OPS+

 

All of them had cold stretches that were longer &/or worse than what Yelich is currently doing, and were still able to come back from it. Looking at Christian's career arc...

 

2013-17 | 2812 PAs | 121 OPS+

2018-19 | 1231 PAs | 171 OPS+

2020-21 | 543 PAs | 103 OPS+

 

...my best guess is that Yelich's production from 2022-28 will likely fall somewhere between the 121 OPS+ he posted as a Marlin & his 133 career mark. If he does that the contract will be fine.

 

This is so helpful … this gives me hope! Thank you

[edfunderburk]

What proof at all is there that Yelich was cheating? The Darvish stuff and the one video that showed nothing? Seems like a huge stretch. I would say his knee injury and back problems seem way more likely causes for his steep regression.

 

I’m a Yelich fan & I believe he has good character. I thought the same of Ryan Braun years ago too. And Altuve as well.

 

It is not my intention to “accuse” Yelich of cheating … I’m simply wondering - like so many - WHY he has regressed so much. It may very well be a combination of reasons - foremost the knee & back injuries. But he is NOT the same player … he has very little power & doesn’t often drive the ball anymore.

 

Not only has his bat regressed, but it seems that his defense has significantly regressed too. He’s not that old … so I’m puzzled as to how he became such an average player after being such an incredible player … almost overnight & sadly AFTER signing such a rich contract extension.

[pacopete4]

He was probably cheating. That’s the only thing to explain the Gold Glove defense.

[wibadgers23]

He hasn't been the same player since he shattered his knee in 2019. Is it just a coincidence? I don't know but I'm guessing it's a combination of the knee, back and just not feeling comfortable at the plate in general.

[clancyphile]

Absolutely! How can a guy go from league MVP and batting champ to hitting like a pitcher? I like the fact he can run well and get on base with walks but his hitting since he broke his kneecap has been woeful.

 

Yelich 2020-21: 218/365/386 (107 wRC+)

Average P 2021: 109/214/083 (-20 wRC+)

 

Since Yelich broke his knee cap his hitting has been 7% better than league average & 127% better than the average pitcher.

 

Yelich's average has been down. My guess? The swing change + COVID layoff of 2020 + back issues. If he ditches the swing change, and goes back to what he did in 2018-2019, I think he gets back to All Star form - maybe even sneaks in a MVP campaign or two.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's got just 2 K's in his last 5 games (22 PA) and he's been barreling it with more frequency. I think he's starting to turn the corner.

[umphrey]

Not sure if anyone brought this up ye but

 

Yelich: .723 OPS

Brinson: .822 OPS

[pacopete4]

Not sure if anyone brought this up ye but

 

Yelich: .723 OPS

Brinson: .822 OPS

 

Right in time for his arbitration years to kick in for Miami. Good for Lewis.

[edfunderburk]

For all those who continue to defend & believe that Yelich will rebound & that this two-year funk will be reversed soon …

 

I’m wondering if there is even one MLB team that would trade a low-level prospect to the Brewers in the off-season & take on Yelich’s remaining contract hoping for the former magic

 

I say NO … anyone who watches Yelich at the plate these days would be foolish to do so

 

I wish Milwaukee could re-allocate those future contract dollars to acquire a few quality bats or bullpen arms

 

I’m grateful for those incredible, other-worldly years of 2018 & 2019 … but I’m confident Yelich will never approach that level of play again

 

Just like all of you - I hope I’m dead wrong … I hope he stays with Milwaukee & returns to someone close to those MVP-level seasons

[edfunderburk]

It worked … just like that I jinxed Yelich out of his season-long slump

 

His double in the third inning was his 2nd hardest hit ball of the season!

 

Awesome … but [sarcasm]I would still trade him if there are any takers this off-season[/sarcasm]

[jjfanec]

7 for his last 20 with 2 walks. Only 2 doubles so the power is still not there but hopefully he really is turning a corner.

[dlk9s]

Not sure if anyone brought this up ye but

 

Yelich: .723 OPS

Brinson: .822 OPS

 

Welp, now the Brewers officially lost that trade.

[JackNicholson1974]

I am sure you are being sarcastic, but it can be correct that the Brewers "won" that trade - they did! And that Yelich is a worse player than Brinson for the length of the Yelich extension. The Yelich extension should not be taken into account when considering who won the trade. But if you ask - who would you rather have for the next 4 years? - Yelich at his salary or Brinson at his, we are edging closer and closer to a reality where the answer might be Brinson.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Not sure if anyone brought this up ye but

 

Yelich: .723 OPS

Brinson: .822 OPS

 

And if Lewis has another slightly above average season like this in 2022, he'll likely become a replacement level player in terms of WAR for his career. Right now he's at -2.0WAR, while Yelich has accumulated a 15.9 WAR tally from 2018-2021.

 

Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Yelich's OPS wind up much closer to that 0.822 total by season's end, too. If that is indeed the case, then Yelich would be back to being a middle of the order threat and the discussion of him becoming a terrible offensive player is just angst over an injury and pandemic-riddled year's worth of ABs that become the outlier in Yelich's career.

 

But if you ask - who would you rather have for the next 4 years? - Yelich at his salary or Brinson at his, we are edging closer and closer to a reality where the answer might be Brinson.

 

Maybe, but that also comes with the caveat of having Brewers teams in 2018 and 2019 that wouldn't have made the playoffs and have an organizational outlook that isn't nearly as rosy.

[Jopal78]

He hasn't been the same player since he shattered his knee in 2019. Is it just a coincidence? I don't know but I'm guessing it's a combination of the knee, back and just not feeling comfortable at the plate in general.

 

Can we stop with the knee cap as being a proximate cause of Yelich's slump? It was a fracture of the knee cap. Nothing was shattered. He didn't even need surgical intervention or any serious medical treatment outside a knee immobilizer. More importantly, Yelich is 4th on the Brewers in sprint speed behind Garcia, Cain and Taylor. If his fractured knee cap was effecting him at the plate, you could bet that it would also impact his sprint speed.

[stoutdude04]

He hasn't been the same player since he shattered his knee in 2019. Is it just a coincidence? I don't know but I'm guessing it's a combination of the knee, back and just not feeling comfortable at the plate in general.

 

Can we stop with the knee cap as being a proximate cause of Yelich's slump? It was a fracture of the knee cap. Nothing was shattered. He didn't even need surgical intervention or any serious medical treatment outside a knee immobilizer. More importantly, Yelich is 4th on the Brewers in sprint speed behind Garcia, Cain and Taylor. If his fractured knee cap was effecting him at the plate, you could bet that it would also impact his sprint speed.

 

Not necessarily, buddy of mine played at Whitewater and one of his teammates had the same injury. Guy was never the same hitting. Still ran well though.

Knees are a funny thing. I had a knee injury about 5 years ago and every now and then I can feel it when hitting a softball, but have no issues running and still move well. Obviously I am not an athletic specimen like Yelich, but I could see the knee being a prolonged issue.

[sveumrules]

Can we stop with the knee cap as being a proximate cause of Yelich's slump? It was a fracture of the knee cap. Nothing was shattered. He didn't even need surgical intervention or any serious medical treatment outside a knee immobilizer. More importantly, Yelich is 4th on the Brewers in sprint speed behind Garcia, Cain and Taylor. If his fractured knee cap was effecting him at the plate, you could bet that it would also impact his sprint speed.

 

Yelich's entire approach has changed since the knee cap, so it still seems like a relevant data point to me. Swing percentages of 38.7% / 34.6% the last two years vs 45.2% / 44.0% his first two seasons with the Crew.

 

One might theorize that Yelich has been especially hesitant to swing / swing with authority on pitches inside or down or especially down & inside and maybe even at pitches down the middle, because pitches that start off down the middle often end up inside or down or both by the time they get to the plate. Here are Yelich's swing percentage & wOBA for each of those four zones during his four years with the Brewers...

 

Middle / Middle (swing% down & wOBA way down)

 

Swing% | 2018: 81% | 2019: 81% | 2020: 66% | 2021: 78%

wOBA | 2018: .649 | 2019: .625 | 2020: .416 | 2021: .332

 

Middle / Inside (swing% down & wOBA about the same)

 

Swing% | 2018: 75% | 2019: 76% | 2020: 66% | 2021: 66%

wOBA | 2018: .393 | 2019: .439 | 2020: .427 | 2021: .361

 

Low / Middle (swing% about the same & wOBA way down)

 

Swing% | 2018: 60% | 2019: 63% | 2020: 57% | 2021: 67%

wOBA | 2018: .467 | 2019: .532 | 2020: .260 | 2021: .240

 

Low / Inside (swing% way down & wOBA way down)

 

Swing% | 2018: 67% | 2019: 64% | 2020: 59% | 2021: 44%

wOBA | 2018: .500 | 2019: .323 | 2020: .264 | 2021: .232

[Fear The Chorizo]

He hasn't been the same player since he shattered his knee in 2019. Is it just a coincidence? I don't know but I'm guessing it's a combination of the knee, back and just not feeling comfortable at the plate in general.

 

Can we stop with the knee cap as being a proximate cause of Yelich's slump? It was a fracture of the knee cap. Nothing was shattered. He didn't even need surgical intervention or any serious medical treatment outside a knee immobilizer. More importantly, Yelich is 4th on the Brewers in sprint speed behind Garcia, Cain and Taylor. If his fractured knee cap was effecting him at the plate, you could bet that it would also impact his sprint speed.

 

No - not when the mental component of that injury occurring while swinging in the batter's box is probably moreso a culprit to Yelich's change in approach than anything else. Also, sprint speed isn't affected by a healed broken bone. That injury occurred on a slider that started middle of the plate and broke way inside from a RHP - when you look at Yelich's lower swing % and probably more importantly the dramatic decrease in damage he's done with pitches middle-in since this injury, it's not hard to put 2 and 2 together why Yelich doesn't seem to want to attack those pitches by getting the bat out in front and hit them with authority to right field.