2021 NLDS roster prediction

[KeithStone53151]

Is it too early for this?

 

Position Player locks(13)

Narvaez

Pina

Tellez

Wong

Adames

Escobar

Urias

Garcia

Cain

Yelich

JBJ

Taylor

Peterson

 

Pitching Locks(11)

Burnes

Woodruff

Peralta

Lauer

Houser

Hader

Williams

Boxberger

Cousins

Suter

Ashby

 

Possibilities pending roster construction

Norris

Strickland

Topa

Anderson

Vogelbach

Reyes

Broxton

Maile

 

The players in the 3rd bucket, the pitchers may get added pending how RH or LH our given opponent is...also how they pitch in Sept. Position players, Vogel/Reyes are by far more likely than the other 2. Vogel for a PH appearance and Reyes for pinch running. Maile as a 3rd catcher in case CC wants to get cute with PH and having that emergency option. I think in 2018 we carried either 10 or 11 pitchers on the roster...I think we end up more 14/12 for NLDS.

 

I made a couple edits to include Broxton as a possibility. If Taylor doesn't recover well AND we have another outfield injury, Broxton could make it as a defense/speed guy that you hope never touches a bat. I also slid Ashby up to locks and removed Curtiss as he's obviously done for the year.

Edited October 8, 2021 by KeithStone53151

[djoctagone]

Is it too early for this?

too early. there really should be a thread for each postseason round.

 

clubs don't need as many pitchers for a wild card elimination game. and they don't need as many pitchers for a best of five division series.

 

certainly hope that the brewers can skip the wild card elimination game (and any game 163) and get the extra rest ahead of the division series.

 

and also, any player in the organization by 31 august is eligible for postseason play. let's get to that deadline first, and then maybe start making predictions.

[Outlander]

Agreed too early, many of those guys certainly are not locks on playoff rosters though.

[rickh150]

Not too early for the optimistic thread, though.

[djoctagone]

Is it too early for this?

and also, any player in the organization by 31 august is eligible for postseason play. let's get to that deadline first, and then maybe start making predictions.

yeah, it's pretty safe to assume that the brewers won't be in a wild card game, and instead, will be in a best-of-five division series.

 

important to note as you make your predictions for a 26-man roster for the national league division series after you brush up on these rules:

 

game 162 is sunday 3 october

 

game 1 of nlds is friday 8 october

 

game 2 is saturday 9 october

 

sunday 10 october is an off day

 

game 3 is monday 11 october

 

game 4 (if necessary) is tuesday 12 october

 

game 5 (if necessary) is after an off day: thursday 14 october

 

game 1 of nlcs is saturday 16 october

[djoctagone]

also to note, in 2018, after playing game 163 to advance to the nlds, the brewers had two off days (not four like they will this year) before starting their best-of-five series with colorado. that roster had 11 pitchers (44%) and 14 position players (56%). they used only 8 of the 11 pitchers, but all 14 position players in the series. granted, they only played three of potential five games, but the club had no way of knowing they'd sweep when constructing their nlds roster.

[KeithStone53151]

I updated the title to NLDS, I tend to agree going series by series makes the most sense. I was looking at the braves roster, they have 1 lh and 3 rh starting pitchers that are likely to start playoff games. However, they will probably have 3 lh relievers on their roster including their closer. I'm not sure vogel makes sense in the roster. We'll have Peterson and potentially tellez available as a ph against a rh reliever(jbj as well but yeah), against a lh reliever we'd have Taylor if he's healthy, maybe urias, maybe cain, and Pina who you don't really want to use. I think Reyes with his speed, flexibility, and rh bat are a better option for that specific series. Add Ashby and maybe Strickland or Anderson to the 10 I have as locks and that's probably about the right team

[bork]

There are enough off days between the regular season and playoffs that you can line up Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta for games 1,2,3. What's not so clear is who starts game 4? Lauer, Houser, Ashby? Woodruff could come back for game 5 if needed. It's likely that Anderson gets left off the NLDS roster again.

[Outlander]

It is still early but my guess would be 14 position players and 12 pitchers. Think they will go three right and 3 left on the bench with Pina, Urias, Taylor, JBJ, Jace and Vogelbach. From the initial post I imagine Strickland is a near lock at this point. Will let September play out to determine pitcher 12 but my guess would be Ashby or Norris but of course injuries happen.

[adambr2]

Position players (13):

 

Yelich, Cain, Taylor, JBJ, Garcia, Peterson, Urias, Adames, Wong, Tellez, Escobar, Narvaez, Pina

 

Pitchers (13)

 

Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Ashby, Hader, Williams, Boxberger, Cousins, Norris, Suter, Strickland

[Greenleaf1]

Position players (13):

 

Yelich, Cain, Taylor, JBJ, Garcia, Peterson, Urias, Adames, Wong, Tellez, Escobar, Narvaez, Pina

 

Pitchers (13)

 

Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Ashby, Hader, Williams, Boxberger, Cousins, Norris, Suter, Strickland

 

Maybe not the most popular opinion but I want Anderson on the roster to start a possible game 4. He can go once through the order, then Houser can go once through, then Ashby or Lauer.

 

I think we could add Anderson and ditch JBJ. Everything else I agree with.

[KeithStone53151]

It is still early but my guess would be 14 position players and 12 pitchers. Think they will go three right and 3 left on the bench with Pina, Urias, Taylor, JBJ, Jace and Vogelbach. From the initial post I imagine Strickland is a near lock at this point. Will let September play out to determine pitcher 12 but my guess would be Ashby or Norris but of course injuries happen.

 

I'm not so sure Urias should/will be on the bench much in a playoff series. He's been one of our best hitters since the all star break. He's been equally as good as Tellez and significantly better than Escobar. He's also the best defender of the 3. I think Urias is getting significantly overlooked and frankly is a better option in the starting lineup against both RH and LH hitters than both Escobar and Tellez.

[Greenleaf1]

It is still early but my guess would be 14 position players and 12 pitchers. Think they will go three right and 3 left on the bench with Pina, Urias, Taylor, JBJ, Jace and Vogelbach. From the initial post I imagine Strickland is a near lock at this point. Will let September play out to determine pitcher 12 but my guess would be Ashby or Norris but of course injuries happen.

 

I'm not so sure Urias should/will be on the bench much in a playoff series. He's been one of our best hitters since the all star break. He's been equally as good as Tellez and significantly better than Escobar. He's also the best defender of the 3. I think Urias is getting significantly overlooked and frankly is a better option in the starting lineup against both RH and LH hitters than both Escobar and Tellez.

 

Man, Urias has been sneakily having a couple pretty great months.

 

His 2nd half: 137 PA, .263/.348/.483, 6 HR .269 BAbip, 20:15 K:BB, 42.6 HardHit%

 

Since August 1st: 85 PA, .286/.333/.532, 5 HR, .279 BAbip, 12:6 K:BB, 40.3 HardHit%

 

His numbers are obviously inflated a bit by his 5 XBH game against the Cubs, but it looks like he's also getting a bit unlucky with the low BAbip compared to pretty solid HardHit%.

 

The nice thing about the playoffs is that you don't have to worry about getting everybody playing time, the best bat plays. Will have to see who the best bats are by the beginning of October.

[markedman5]

Yeah there really is no reason to include Hiura.......Ashby will almost certainly be on the roster IMO.

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah there really is no reason to include Hiura.......Ashby will almost certainly be on the roster IMO.

 

I added the "possibilities" before we were more or less guaranteed to win the division. For a wildcard including him was possible as usually you only have like 7-8 pitchers at most. For NLDS and beyond at this point there's no chance for him.

[Outlander]

Today is a perfect example of why Vogelbach will be on the playoff roster and why Tellez/Vogelbach are not redundant players during the playoffs.

[BruisedCrew]

Today is a perfect example of why Vogelbach will be on the playoff roster and why Tellez/Vogelbach are not redundant players during the playoffs.

 

They aren’t completely redundant because one can start at 1B and the other can be a left handed bat off the bench. But it would be hard to find two other players who are as similar as the two of them in terms of what they offer and how narrow their skills are.

 

Whether they keep both of them will probably depend on how many pitchers they think they need. It looks like Taylor is going to be ready for action before long, and I assume he would be ahead of a second 1B/PH player.

 

If it comes down to the two of them, you’d have to decide who is more valuable: Vogelbach as a pinch hitter or Bradley as a late inning defensive replacement.

Edited September 6, 2021 by BruisedCrew

[JohnBriggs12]

Assuming Taylor is healthy, I'd leave JBJ off the playoff roster and give his spot to Vogelbach. They need quality bench bats more than a 5th outfielder, even one who's a defensive whiz. Besides Peterson can play both corner OF spots.

 

Against a RH starter, they could have 4 quality bats off the bench, Urias and Taylor or Cain from the right side, and Peterson and Vogey from the left side.

[kfizz]

I wonder if they’ll need 14 position players to have enough bats off the bench. And left handed starters can be tough for them. I could see something like the following:

 

Starting Pitchers

Woodruff

Burnes

Peralta

Lauer (since some other teams struggle with lefties too)

 

Right handed Relievers

Williams

Boxberger

Cousins

Strickland

Houser

 

Left handed Relievers

Hader

Suter

Ashby

 

Catchers

Narvaez L

Pina R

 

Infielders

Tellez L

Vogelbach L

Wong L

Adames R

Urias R

Escobar S

 

Outfielders

Yelich L

Cain R

Garcia R

Taylor R

 

Utility

Peterson L

 

Leaves one spot for Anderson (LHP), Norris (LHP), Bradley (LH OF), or Reyes (RH IF).

 

Pretty flexible team.

[StearnsFTW]

Urias as the only other shortstop terrifies me. He can't be out there in the playoffs at ss. Not sure what our options are at this point, because they're pretty bleak.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't mean to jinx anything here. I assumed Lauer/Houser would piggyback for a game 4. Nothing against Houser or anyone else, but if the current trend continues Lauer should definitely start game 4 if not sooner. He's been our 2nd best pitcher since the all star break.

[yoshii8]

C- Narvaez

1b-Tellez

2b-Wong

SS-Urias

3b-Escobar

LF-Yelich

CF-Cain

RF-Garcia

Bench-Pina, Urias, Vogelbach, Taylor, Peterson, Bradley Jr.

 

Starters- Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser

 

Relievers - Hader, Williams, Cousins, Suter, Boxberger, Ashby, Strickland

[kfizz]

Piggybacking seems like a good idea. Maybe they try not to pitch houser in games 2 or 3. And try to hold Ashby in case peralta gets into trouble. Like how the pitching sets up. Bradley is really just a defensive replacement. If he is getting plate appearances something has gone very wrong.

[NYChez]

Since the all-star break, Lauer, Houser, and Ashby have outperformed Woodruff and Peralta. That won’t impact who starts the first three games, but it likely impacts the leash on the starters.

[damuelle]

I wonder if they’ll need 14 position players to have enough bats off the bench. And left handed starters can be tough for them. I could see something like the following:

 

Starting Pitchers

Woodruff

Burnes

Peralta

Lauer (since some other teams struggle with lefties too)

 

Right handed Relievers

Williams

Boxberger

Cousins

Strickland

Houser

 

Left handed Relievers

Hader

Suter

Ashby

 

Catchers

Narvaez L

Pina R

 

Infielders

Tellez L

Vogelbach L

Wong L

Adames R

Urias R

Escobar S

 

Outfielders

Yelich L

Cain R

Garcia R

Taylor R

 

Utility

Peterson L

 

Leaves one spot for Anderson (LHP), Norris (LHP), Bradley (LH OF), or Reyes (RH IF).

 

Pretty flexible team.

 

I agree with this (i.e. getting Taylor's bat on the 26-man NLDS roster) and would go with Brett Anderson as the 26th man, if he's healthy. With Cain, Garcia and Taylor, I don't really see the marginal value of including JBJ for defense. Unfortunately, JBJ has an OPS of .496 against righties and .563 against lefties this year, so I'll prefer we avoid a repeat of the Schoop playoff experience.